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Earnings season webinar
1. Are You Making the Most Out of
Earnings Season?
Mike Bellafiore
Co-Founder, SMB Capital
Co-Founder, SMB U
Author, One Good Trade and The PlayBook
2.
3. Goals
How good can you be?
Share some of what we teach our traders
Discuss opportunities 4U to tap into our desk
Answer your questions
Have some fun!
12. Supershort: Failure at Key Level
on Open + Held Bid Drops
KMay
Ticker: CRUS
Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2013
13. Big Picture
The market has been unusually volatile over the last
several days. SPY dropped precipitously with the
crash of gold on Monday, but recovered most of its
losses yesterday. However, this morning SPY opened
below yesterday's trading activity, and spent much of
the day trending lower. This move puts SPY back into
the 153.7 – 157 price band that occumpied most of
March and early April.
16. ADV: 2.78 million
ATR: 1.02
FS%: 12.34
β: 0.65
Cirrus Logic, Inc., a fabless semiconductor company,
develops signal processing integrated circuits (ICs)
for audio and energy markets. A major customer for
Cirrus is Apple.
19. Trade Review
Make it Better: Didn't trade with enough size here.
Should have been more aggressive when the
original 25c buyer dropped, when 19 dropped, and
when the last 33c buyer dropped.
20. Trade Idea
18.50 and 18 were important levels today. I think
there is a good opportunity to make a short trade
if CRUS pulls into 18.50, or if it spends time
below 18 and turns that support level into
resistance.
24. Intraday Fundamentals
Mining stocks are taking a bit of a hiding following
China's slowing GDP growth and the sell-off in
precious metals.
ATR: 1.16
ADV: 17.1M
SF%: 8%
26. 30.00 was a very clean defined
level in the premarket
27. Trade Idea
GDX seemed to be the best set up in the premarket so
it was the metal stock I wanted to focus on first. It
was supporting 30.50 a few times in the premarket
as GLD was falling. When it finally dropped I took
the opportunity to begin my short position.
28. Begin short position as GLD is
falling and GDX drops 50c
support level
Add when
holds below
40c
Cover half
into 30.00
Add onto short against 10c
when begins to hold below
premarket support at
30.00
Cover some into
trendline break
Add back on
when
consolidates
below previous
support at 80c
Cover most when
breaks downtrend
and approaches the
whole
Flat when makes
double botom and
then new high above
40c
29. Trade Review
It never held under 30.00 long enough for me to really
size up into the position. I also could have easily
been much bigger in the pullback to 80c. Overall
though good job holding it throughout the move and
feeling comfortable shorting in the premarket
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