2. COMMODITY
EXPIRY
DATE
CLOSING
PRICE
TREND**
DATE TREND
CHANGED
RATE TREND
CHANGED
CLOSING
STOP LOSS
COMEX /NYMEX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY) (Closing price as on 23.09.13)
Silver (Dec) ($) 26-Dec-13 21.86 Sideways 13.09.13 21.72 -
Gold (Dec) ($) 27-Dec-13 1327.00 Sideways 12.09.13 1330.60 -
Crude Oil (Nov) ($) 22-Oct-13 103.59 Sideways 20.09.13 104.75
Natural Gas (Oct) ($) 29-Oct-13 3.68 Down 02.05.13 4.025 3.90
MCX (PRECIOUS METALS AND ENERGY (Closing price as on 23.09.13)
Silver (Dec) 5-Dec-13 49393.00 Down 10.09.13 52235.00 54500.00
Gold (Oct) 5-Oct-13 29874.00 Down 10.09.13 30753.00 31200.00
Crude Oil (Oct) 21-Oct-13 6535.00 Down 09.09.13 7056.00 6950.00
Natural Gas (Sept) 25-Sept-13 226.40 Down 06.09.13 229.60 240.00
MCX (FERROUS AND NON FERROUS METALS) (Closing price as on 23.09.13)
Copper (Nov) 29-Nov-13 464.05 Down 06.09.13 474.25 482.00
Aluminum (Sept) 30-Sep-13 111.65 Down 04.09.13 117.25 115.00
Zinc (Sept) 30-Sep-13 116.85 Down 06.09.13 121.50 123.00
Lead (Sept) 30-Sep-13 129.65 Down 09.09.13 137.95 138.00
Nickel (Sept) 30-Sep-13 872.60 Down 06.09.13 903.10 940.00
LME (BASE METALS ) ($ per tonnes) (Closing price as on 23.09.13)
Copper 3 Months 7245.00 Sideways 29.08.13 7153.00 -
Aluminum 3 Months 1817.50 Down 04.09.13 1789.50 1880.00
Zinc 3 Months 1895.00 Up 15.08.13 1944.00 1840.00
Lead 3 Months 2081.00 Sideways 13.09.13 2071.00 -
Nickel 3 Months 13950.00 Down 04.09.13 13680.00 14800.00
**One has to follow the trend and see the price only at closing. This is not for Intra day trading.
3. Spices: Turmeric futures (Oct) will remain in range as as some delay is seen in new crop. Steady to firm arrivals had kept a tab on
turmeric prices in last few days. Traders and exporters are waiting for bulk demand from North India. Cardamom futures may tumble
again on short selling by speculators. Weak export demand, strong availability of the commodity amid weak trend in the spices complex
may trigger selling. Adequate stocks in the physical market put pressure on the cardamom prices Jeera futures (Oct) is likely to slip lower
due to weak local demand and selling pressure. However, the supply remains poor and demand is expected to increase in the current
crop year (February-March) due to poor prospects from politically unstable Syria. A downside bias may continue in chilli futures due to
prevailing weak trend at the spot market. However dwindling acreage of chilli in AP, especially Guntur might limit the sharp fall of prices.
Oilseeds: Soybean futures (Oct) is likely to feature range bound movement with a weak bias on higher soybean production estimates
and new crop arrival pressure. Soybean November contract in CBOT finished down for the 3rd consecutive trading session due to
growing possibility of higher production. CPO futures (Sept) is likely to remain lower amid subdued spot demand. Weak trend in overseas
market further may fuel the downtrend in crude palm oil futures. Palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia, is expected to start rising
this month as trees enter the peak production cycle, while rainfall in the U.S. Midwest is likely to boost yields of the moisture-stressed
soybean crop. Mustard futures (Oct) is likely to remain bearish as higher overall kharif oilseeds crop prospects on higher acreage will
continue to pressurize the markets. Global supplies of rapeseed are widely believed to rise which will put pressure on the rapeseed
prices.
Other Commodities: Sugar price may trade with negative bias due to expectations of higher supplies from the new crop. Continuous
supply from millers to ease off their stocks ahead of coming crushing season may weigh on prices. Chana futures (Oct) is likely to trade
with negative bias as The Union Cabinet has decided to extend the stock holding limit on pulses by one year to September 30, 2014.
This will help in controlling prices of pulses in various parts of the country. Better pulses production reports and sufficient stock to meet
the festive demand are also pressurizing the market sentiments. Guar futures may slip as the trend looks weak due to huge stock left
with farmers. Consistent arrivals of guar in the markets led the prices downwards. Market regulator FMC is asking the exchanges to
probe the price fluctuations in guar trading. Wheat future may trade in the range due to lackluster trading activities. Supply remains ample
and only needful buying is talking place.
Market Update (Agro)
Market Update (Metals & Energy)
Bullions: Bullion counter is expected to trade on flat note tracking mixed international cues. In MCX weakness in local currency rupee
may give support the prices. Gold can move in range of 29600-30000 while silver contract can move in range of 49000-50500 in MCX.
Gold edged higher on Tuesday following three days of losses, but gains were limited on uncertainty over when the U.S. Federal Reserve
would begin tapering its stimulus measures. The Federal Reserve must for now continue to push hard against threats to the U.S.
recovery, but should still be able to reduce its support for the economy later this year, New York Fed President William Dudley said on
Monday. SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.07 percent, or 0.6 tonnes,
to 909.59 tonnes on Monday.
Base Metals: Base metal complex may open with negative path but some short covering can be seen at lower levels Copper may trade
in range of 460-472 in MCX. Lead may trade in range of 127-132 while zinc may trade in range of 115-118 in near term. Nickel may
remain in range of 860-885 in MCX while aluminum may trade in range of 110-113. London copper edged down on Tuesday as the
prospect of rising supply overshadowed a brightening outlook for demand, with data this week showing a flood of European and Chinese
manufacturing orders in September. The global market for refined copper is expected to swing into a 153,000 tonne surplus this year. A
flood of new orders gave a boost to European and Chinese firms in September although weakness in U.S. factory activity tempered
evidence of a healing global economy. The Federal Reserve must for now continue to push hard against threats to the U.S. recovery, but
should still be able to reduce its support for the economy later this year, a central bank policymaker said.
Energy: Crude oil counter can trade sideways in range of 6500-6600 while Natural gas may trade in range of 222-230 in MCX. Brent
crude edged down near $108 a barrel on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions eased slightly ahead of nuclear talks involving Iran and the
United States later this week, while rising oil supply from Iraq and Libya weighed on prices. Iran has agreed to new talks on its nuclear
programme with top diplomats from six world powers, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, raising hopes that Tehran's relations
with the United States could thaw.U.S. officials have also said a meeting is possible this week between President Barack Obama and
Iran's new centrist president, Hassan Rouhani.
4. TODAY KEY ECONOMIC RELEASES
IST Economic releases Importance Expected Previous
Impact on
Commodity
Adverse/Favourable/
Neutral
13:30
EUR German IFO - Business
Climate
Medium 108 107.5
Metals and
Crude oil
Favourable
13:30
EUR German IFO - Current
Assessment
Medium 112.6 112
Metals and
Crude oil
Favourable
13:30
EUR German IFO -
Expectations
Medium 104 103.3
Metals and
Crude oil
Favourable
18:30
USD House Price Index
(MoM)
Medium 0.90% 0.70%
Metals and
Crude oil
Favourable
19:30 USD Consumer Confidence High 80.3 81.5
Metals and
Crude oil
Adverse
5. SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public issue of its
equity shares and has filed a Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). The DRHP is available on the
website of the SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and the website of the Book Running Lead Managers i.e. Tata Securities Limited at www.tatacapital.com and IL&FS
Capital Advisors Limited at www.ilfscapital.com. Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk. For details please refer
to the DRHP and particularly the section titled Risk Factors in the Draft Red Herring Prospectus.
Commodity Fundamental Team:
Vandana Bharti AVP - Commodity Research Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 625
Sandeep Joon Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 646
Subhranil Dey Sr. Research Analyst Ph: 011-30111000 Extn: 674
For Intra day Commodity queries (Technical) during market hours (9.00AM - 11:30PM) contact 011-
25754373 extn: 436,437, Direct line: 9650507651
You can also read this report on our website “www.smctradeonline.com”
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