Tourism is an important industry for Transylvania County's economy. In 2008, tourists spent $77.1 million in the county, generating 780 jobs and $14.9 million in worker payroll. This tourist spending also generated $2.99 million in state taxes and $3.71 million in local taxes. On average, tourist spending in Transylvania County results in $211,232 being spent daily and provides $388 in tax relief for each county household.

1. Tourism s Importance to the
Tourism’s Importance to the
Transylvania County & Brevard
Economy
Steve Morse, Ph.D.
Director & Economist
Tourism Institute
T i I tit t
University of Tennessee
Knoxville, TN
Ph: (865) 974‐6249
smorse@utk.edu
October 15, 2009
Brevard, NC

2. Tourism s Importance to the
Tourism’s Importance to the
Transylvania County & Brevard
Economy
Brevard College
Brevard College
Steve Morse, Ph.D. Brevard, NC
October 15, 2009
Director & Economist
Tourism Institute
University of Tennessee
y
Knoxville, TN
Ph: (865) 974‐6249
Ph: (865) 974 6249
smorse@utk.edu

3. Outline of Topics
1) Tourist spending trends in Transylvania Co.
2) Tourism’s importance to the Transylvania
Co. economy y
3) Employment trends in Transylvania Co.
4) The U S recession – city analysis
The U.S. recession city analysis
5) Three recovery models for U.S. Economy

4. But first, something very important to
mention about the Brevard College
g
Football Team ……..

5. How ‘Bout Them Tornadoes!

6. Areas of
Focus

7. Top 10 Western NC Counties for Tourist
Spending in 2008
Spending in 2008
1) Buncombe Co. $711.0 million
2) Swain Co. $233.2 million
3) Macon Co. $120.5 million
4) Henderson Co. $198.6 million
5) Haywood Co. $113.4 million
6) Transylvania Co. $77.1 million
7) Jackson Co. $69.1 million
8) Cherokee Co. $35.3 million
9) Graham Co. $23.4 million
10)Clay Co. $12.0 million
Source: TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development

8. Transylvania Co. Tourist Spending,
1999 ‐ 2008
$90 $ million tourist spending
$ illi t i t di
$80.1
$77.1
$80 $75.6
$69.9
$
$70
$62.0 $62.9 $64.8
$59.6 $60.8
$60 $
$55.7
$50
$40
Source: TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development

9. Percent Change in Tourist Spending,
2006 – 2007 (before the recession)
2006 2007 (b f th i )
Jackson Co.
Jackson Co 6.5%
6 5%
Transylvania Co. 6.0%
Haywood Co.
H dC 5.0%
0%
Clay Co. 4.4%
Swain Co. 4.2%
Macon Co. 3.8%
Cherokee Co. 2.8%
Graham Co. 2.1%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Source: TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development

10. How did gas prices & the recession impact
tourist spending from 2007–2008?
p g
(during recession)
‐7.1%
7 1% Swain Co.
Swain Co
‐4.8% Jackson Co.
‐4.6%
6% Graham Co.
G h C
‐4.5% Macon Co.
‐3.8% Transylvania Co.
‐3.2% Clay Co.
‐2.7% Haywood Co.
‐0.8% Cherokee Co.
‐8% ‐6% ‐4% ‐2% 0%
Source: TIA & NC Division of Tourism, Film & Sport Development

11. Transylvania Co. Taxable Sales per
Month, 2006 – 2009 (June)
Month 2006 2009 (J )
2006 Sales ($) 2007 Sales ($) 2008 Sales ($) 2009 Sales ($)
Jan 17,848,627 22,792,959 23,575,889 17,576,189
Feb 15,620,400 20,023,522 14,407,642 13,330,437
Mar 19,424,263 21,462,701 25,250,520 17,771,279
Apr 21,317,240 23,888,196 21,902,111 17,389,467
May 16,804,648 21,703,412 24,245,485 19,821,655
Jun 27,416,615 27,585,527 26,511,608 21,959,170
Jul 31,572,861 23,968,190 25,485,617
Aug 22,789,090 28,673,645 23,228,671
Sep 19,977,364 16,904,337 22,220,731
Oct 24,775,646 23,724,631 21,927,384
Nov 21,791,530 22,856,574 15,874,102
Dec 21,569,548 22,389,814 23,080,437
Total 260,907,832 275,973,508 267,710,197
Source: North Carolina Department of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

12. Transylvania Co. Taxable Sales per
Month, 2006 – 2009 (June)
Month 2006 2009 (J )
$35,000,000 2006 Sales
2007 Sales
$30,000,000 2006 2008 Sales
2009 Sales
$25,000,000 2008
$20,000,000
2007
$15,000,000
2009
$10,000,000
Note of interest: Easter holiday 2008 fell on March 23, earliest Easter date since 1913
$5,000,000
$0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.
Source: NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

13. Brevard City Taxable Sales per
Month, 2006 – 2009 (May)
Month 2006 2009 (M )
2006 Sales ($) 2007 Sales ($) 2008 Sales ($) 2009 Sales ($)
Jan 9,610,271 15,478,986 15,878,725 12,815,770
Feb 9,961,570 13,988,550 9,374,594 9,556,853
Mar 11,698,280 12,327,840 17,915,415 12,968,858
Apr 12,866,293 14,308,849 15,237,249 12,418,334
May 10,111,828 13,958,708 14,900,235 13,464,408
Jun 13,766,927 15,435,354 17,798,291
Jul 20,791,541 12,944,426 16,106,983
Aug 14,925,596 16,604,424 15,061,201
Sep 10,671,812 9,731,041 15,363,941
Oct 15,256,854 13,187,508 14,873,720
Nov 13,026,426 14,320,140 11,274,934
Dec 13,672,469 14,100,531 17,778,673
Total 156,359,867 166,386,357 181,563,961
Source: North Carolina Department of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

14. Brevard City Taxable Sales per Month,
$25,000,000
2006 2009
2006 – 2009 (May)
2006 Sales
2007 Sales
$20,000,000 2006 2008 Sales
2009 Sales
2008
$15,000,000
$10,000,000 2007
2009
$5,000,000
Note of interest: Easter holiday 2008 fell on March 23, earliest Easter date since 1913
$0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec.
Source: NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

15. Annual Taxable Sales for Transylvania
Co. & Brevard City, 2006
Co. & Brevard City, 2006 ‐ 2008
$300,000,000
$275,973,508
$267,710,197
$
$260,907,832
, ,
$260,000,000
Transylvania Co.
$220,000,000
$181,563,961
$180,000,000 $166,386,357
$156,359,867
Transylvania Co.
Transylvania Co.
$140,000,000 Brevard City
Brevard City
Brevard City
$100,000,000
2006 2007 2008
Source: NC Dept. of Revenue & Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

16. Impacts of Tourism on the
Transylvania County Economy, 2008
T l i C E 2008
Tourist Worker
Spending: Payroll:
$77.1 Million
$77 1 Million $14.9 Million
$14 9 Million
Employment: State Taxes:
State Taxes: Local Taxes:
Local Taxes:
780 Jobs $2.99 Million $3.71 Million
Source: NC Division of Tourism. Film & Sport Development & U.S. Travel Association

17. Q: If tourists to Transylvania Co.
y
spent $77.1 million in 2008, how
much do tourists spend on an
hd i d
average day in
average day in
Transylvania County?
$211,232
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee 17

18. Also on an Average Day in
Transylvania Co., tourist spending
Transylvania Co., tourist spending
generates…
Paychecks worth $40,821 daily
State taxes worth $8,191
State taxes worth $8 191 daily
Transylvania Co. taxes worth
T l i C t th
$10,164 daily
$10,164 daily
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee 18

19. How much in NC State and Transylvania
Co. taxes did Tourism Generate in 2008?
• NC State sales taxes $2.99 million
• Transylvania Co. local taxes + $3.71 million
• Total State & Local Taxes
Total State & Local Taxes $6.7 million
$6 7 million
Source: NC Division of Tourism, Film and Sport Development 19

20. If we spread out the $6.7 million in taxes
generated by tourism across all
households in Transylvania County, how
households in Transylvania County, how
much would this be per household?
• According to the U.S. Census Bureau,
there were 17,242 permanent
h
resident households in Transylvania
y
County in 2007.
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee & U.S. Census Bureau 20

21. Tourism Tax Relief for
Transylvania Co.
Transylvania Co
• Each household in Transylvania Co. pays
$388 less in State and local taxes as a
result of tourism economic activity
result of tourism economic activity
$388
Tax relief
f
for each h
a sy a a
Transylvania
Co. household
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

22. A Big Check for $388 to Each
Transylvania County Household
Transylvania County Household
For tourism tax
For tourism tax
relief of $388
each household
each household
does not have
to pay. Provided
to pay Provided
by taxes
generate by
generate by
tourist spending
in Transylvania
in Transylvania
Amount: $388 County.
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

23. For every $1 invested in tourism for
Transylvania County, each $1 generates…
Transylvania County, each $1 generates…
$22.70
$22.70
$12.57
in
$10.13 in local
in local combined
combined
in State Transylvania State &
taxes Co. taxes local taxes
local taxes
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

24. What is the Return on Investment (ROI) of
Transylvania County’s Tourism Budget of
Transylvania County s Tourism Budget of
$295,000?
• $12.57 in local
Each $1
taxes (ROI = 12.57%)
taxes (ROI = 12 57%)
spent on
• $10.13 in State
tourism in t taxes (ROI 10 13%)
(ROI = 10.13%)
Transylvania
• $22.70 in State &
Co.
Co local taxes
generates… (ROI = 22.7%)
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

25. How have Transylvania Co. Employment
Trends Changed Since 2002?
Trends Changed Since 2002?
Industry 2002 2008
Manufacturing 22.0%
Education & Health Services 19.1%
Retail, Wholesale Trade,
18.8%
Transp. & Utilities
Transp & Utilities
Tourism & Hospitality 15.8%
Construction 9.0%
Prof & Business Services 5.1%
Financial Activity 4.2%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee

26. How have Transylvania Co. Employment
Trends Changed Since 2002?
Trends Changed Since 2002?
Industry 2002 2008
Manufacturing 22.0% 4.8%
Education & Health Services 19.1% 22.6%
Retail, Wholesale Trade,
18.8% 26.6%
Transp. & Utilities
Transp & Utilities
Tourism & Hospitality 15.8% 17.8%
Construction 9.0% 10.3%
Prof & Business Services 5.1% 8.0%
Financial Activity 4.2% 4.0%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee

27. How has Transylvania Co.
employment changed since 2002?
emplo ment chan ed since 2002?
30% Percent of total employment
26.6%
25% 22.0% 22.6%
2002 2008
20% 19.1% 18.8% 17.8%
15.8%
15 8%
15%
10.3%
10% 9.0% 8.0%
4.8% 5.1% 4.2%
5% 4.0%
0%
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics & Dr. Steve Morse, Univ. of Tennessee

28. Today’s U.S. Economic Health
• Significant drop in GDP in 4th Qtr. ’08,
g p
U.S.
Economy
1st Qtr. ’09, & 2nd Qtr. ‘09
has Slowed
• Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer hits 25.0, lowest in 30 years
hit 25 0 l t i 30
Confidence
• U.S. unemployment rate 9.5% is
U.S.
unemploy g y ( )
highest in 30 years (Oct. ‘09)
ment rate
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce

29. Top 10 Ways Tourists Reduced Travel
Spending in 2009
1) Take shorter trips (miles) 58%
2) Look for discounts 38%
3) Less on paid attractions 35%
4) Buy less souvenirs 33%
5) L
Less expensive lodging
i l d i 27%
6) Less nights away home 25%
7) More meals in room
More meals in room 18%
8) Drive different vehicle 10%
Split costs with others
9) Split costs with others 9%
10) More fast food 8% 29
Source: Jerry Henry and Associates

30. When did the recession start?
Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic
Percent Change in Real Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) from Previous Quarter
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
% change
‐2.0
‐4.0
60
‐6.0
(2006) (2007) (2008) (2009)
‐8.0 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

31. Recessions impact some
areas harder than others
areas harder than others
Let’s identify:
y
20 strongest Metro areas
(cities hit least by recession)
(cities hit least by recession)
20 middle strength Metro
areas
20 second most weakest
20 second‐most weakest
Metro areas
20 weakest Metro areas
20 weakest Metro areas
(cities hit hardest by recession)

32. Percent employment
p y Change in
g
change from peak to unemployment rate
Q
Q2 ‐ 2009 March 08–June 09
4 Key Economic
Indicators Used to Rank
Economic Strength of
Metro Areas
Percent change in
Percent change in
Percent change in
h i
Gross Metro Product
housing prices Q1 –
produced, peak to
produced peak to
08 to Q2 ‐ 2009
Q2 ‐ 2009

33. 20 Strongest Economic
Albuquerque, NM
Austin, TX
Austin TX Metro Areas, as of Q2 – 2009
, Q
(cities hit least by recession)
Baton Rouge, LA
Dallas FW, TX
Dallas‐FW, TX
Des Moines, IA
El Paso, TX
Harrisburg, PA
Houston, TX
Little Rock, AR
Littl R k AR
McAllen, TX
New Haven, CT
New Haven CT
Okla City, OK Rochester, NY VA Beach, VA
Omaha, NE San Antonio, TX Washington, DC
Pittsburg, PA Tulsa, OK Wichita, KS
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute

34. Allentown, PA
Atlanta, GA
Atlanta GA
Baltimore, MD
Buffalo, NY
Buffalo, NY
Charleston, SC
Charlotte, NC
Chattanooga, TN
Col. Springs, CO
Greenville, SC
G ill SC
Indianapolis, IN
Kansas City, MO
Kansas City MO
Knoxville, TN Provo, UT Springfield, MA
Nashville, TN Richmond, VA St. Louis, MO
New York, NY Seattle, WA Wooster, MA
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute

35. Akron, OH
Bakersfield, CA
Bakersfield CA
Birmingham, AL
Boise City, ID
Boise City, ID
Chicago‐Naper, IL
Cincinnati, OH
Cleveland, OH
Dayton, OH
Greensboro, NC
G b NC
Louisville, KY
Milwaukee, WI
Milwaukee WI
Minn‐St.Paul, MN Phoenix, AZ San Francisco, CA
New Orleans, LA Portland, OR San Jose, CA
Orlando, FL San Diego, CA Tucson, AZ
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute

36. 20 Weakest Economic
Sarasota, FL
Ft. Myers, FL
Ft Myers FL
Metro Areas, as of Q2 – 2009
,
(cities hit hardest by recession)
Detroit, MI
Fresno, CA
Fresno, CA
Grand Rapids, MI
Jacksonville, FL
Lakeland, FL
Las Vegas, NV
Los Angels, CA
L A l CA
Miami‐Ft. Laud, FL
Modesto, CA
Modesto CA
Ventura, CA Riverside, CA Tampa, FL
Melbourne, FL Sacramento, CA Toledo, OH
Providence, RI Stockton, CA Youngstown, OH
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics & Brookings Institute

37. Summary = strongest metro areas
Economy to
Econom to = middle strength metro areas
iddl t th t
Q2 ‐ 2009 = weakest metro areas
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
& Brookings Institute

38. Outlook for 2009 & 2010
(Swimming or treading water?)
( i i di ?)

39. “Predictions are
difficult,
difficult
Especially when
you are talking
lki
about the
future.”
‐Y iB
Yogi Berra

40. What will be the shape of our recovery?
Economic Growth
1.2
V‐Shaped?
1
0.8 Now
N
Oct. 2009
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

41. What will be the shape of our recovery?
Economic Growth U‐Shaped?
1.2
12
1
0.8
0.6
Now
Oct. 2009
0.4
0.2
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

42. What will be the shape of our recovery?
Horizontal L‐Shaped?
H i t l L Sh d?
Economic Growth
1.2
12
1
Now
Now
0.8 Oct. 2009
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

43. What is today’s consensus for
recovery?
• V‐shaped recovery: 10%
(t d )
–(steady)
• U‐shaped recovery:
p y 80%
–(getting weaker)
• Horizontal L‐shaped: 10%
–(getting stronger)
(getting stronger)
Source: Dr. Steve Morse, University of Tennessee

44. For an electronic copy of this
presentation, email me at ……
presentation email me at
smorse@utk.edu
smorse@utk edu
Subject: Oct. 15 presentation
j p

45. Contact Information:
Contact Information:
Dr. Steve Morse
Director & Economist, Tourism Institute
University of Tennessee; Knoxville, TN
Ph: (865) 974‐6249
E‐mail: smorse@utk.edu

46. Thank you for inviting me
Th k f i iti
Q
Questions? Comments?