AI and social business

1. Berlin, October 16-17 2018
You Get What You GivePaul Withers, Intec Systems Ltd
@paulswithers
Luis Suarez, panagenda
@elsua

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3. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Paul Withers
• ICS Developer, Intec Systems
• IBM Lifetime Champion
• OpenNTF Board Member

4. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Luis Suarez
• Digital Transformation & Data Analytics
Adviser - panagenda
• IBM ICS Champion
• http://elsua.net
• http://twitter.com/elsua
• http://www.linkedin.com/in/elsua

5. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Why are we here today?
Source - https://unsplash.com/photos/vLXdetEcB40

6. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Is it because …
• If 15% show high engagement,
what about the “other” 85%?
• 5% fluctuation * 1,000
employees = 50 * 43,000 =
2,150,000 EUR
– Excluding side effects (i.e. think of losing sellers)
•To reach optimal productivity,
a new hire usually needs 3.5
years
Source - http://bit.ly/GallupUKDisengaged

7. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Or is it because?
“For 70% of Executives, the
accuracy of their data is what
keeps them up at night.” (Forbes
Insight)
“Only one third of our
decisions are correct.”
(Martina Koederitz, IBM GM DACH)
“We ignore about 80% of
our data.” (Christoph Keese, Axel Springer AG)
80%
Shadow IT
Source: Frost & Sullivan
2013, GigaOM 2014
$330b Cost of
Burnout per Year
Source: WHO

8. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Is this really us?
Source - https://www.flickr.com/photos/49503168860@N01

9. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
What can we do?
Engaged Not Engaged DIS-Engaged
More information about Gallup and Q12® http://www.gallup.de/183104/engagement-index-deutschland.aspx

10. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Can the machines (A.I.) save us?
Source - http://bit.ly/2zYM6aA
Source - https://twitter.com/timoreilly/status/983199489375653890

11. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Maybe, maybe not!
‘I have had it with the stream of articles about what an “AI” can do. Yes,
machine learning works. It is possible to analyze key words, correlate them
with other key words, do a massive amount of statistics, and find out some
stuff. People cannot do that and computers can. Is this AI? It sure isn't
anything people can do, and it also doesn't correspond to anything I
understand about what it means to be intelligent’. - Roger Schank
(@rogerschank)
Source - https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ten-questions-ai-roger-schank
To help understand “AI” it helps to understand “I”
Source - https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6438037501369212928/

12. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Don’t believe the hype around ‘A.I.’
Source - https://twitter.com/Cennydd/status/1019594285916794880

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Instead, let’s focus on augmenting humans
Source - https://www.gapingvoid.com/

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And how do we do that…?
Source - https://unsplash.com/photos/4-EeTnaC1S4

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The Premise
• AI uses insights from unstructured big data
• But haven’t we heard this before?
• Why will Watson (or A.N.Other) succeed
where others failed?
• If it does, are we an endangered species

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Autonomy

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Autonomy
• Autonomy Corp PLC → HP Autonomy
• Founded 1996, Cambridge (England)
• KM tools analysing unstructured big data

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Case Study
• Brought in by IT
• Categorisation of MS Office docs
company-wide
• Intended to:
• Advise users of similar documents
• Advise users of experts

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However…
• Sample content needed loading,
categorising, tagging etc
• Required business knowledge not IT
knowledge
• Required business time
• Required business buy-in

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Evolution of AI

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Post-War
• Turochamp chess program (1948)
• Turing test (1950)

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Herbert Simon, Alan Newell (1955)
• The Logic Theorist
• Proved theorems from Principia
Mathematica, rise of heuristics

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Arthur Samuel, IBM (1959)
• Coined the term
“machine learning”

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Moravec’s Paradox
“It is comparatively easy to make computers
exhibit adult level performance on intelligence
tests or playing checkers, and difficult or
impossible to give them the skills of a one-year-
old when it comes to perception and mobility”
Moravec, Hans (1988), Mind Children, Harvard University Press

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What Is This?

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Machine vs Human
• Deep Blue (1997)
• Watson (2011)
• AlphaGo (2016)

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AI = Artificial Intelligence
“That’s where all AI is today – capable of
finding patterns in data with astonishing
detail and sensitivity, but with no real
understanding of what those patterns
actually mean”
The Joy of AI, BBC 4.1

28. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
AI Next
“Somewhere between 18 months and 2 years old,
children start doing something remarkable. Show
them how to do things…even just once and they
start practising it for themselves. This is called
‘one shot learning’. For computer scientists …this
is like the holy grail.”
The Joy of AI, BBC 4.1

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Artificial Without Intelligence

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Alexa…
https://www.digitaltrends.com/home/funny-accidental-amazon-alexa-ordering-stories/

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Watson Assistant Chatbot
01Code Intents (NLP), Entities
(Structured Processing) and
Dialog Flow
02“Try It”, review confidences
and tweak it
03Deploy it
04Review conversations for weak
understanding, incorrect understanding,
incorrect flows and unanticipated flows

32. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
AI = Augmented Intelligence
https://www.engadget.com/2018/07/27/ibm-watson-for-
oncology-unsafe-treatment-plans-report/
https://gizmodo.com/ibm-watson-reportedly-recommended-
cancer-treatments-tha-1827868882

33. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Watson for Oncology
• Watson reportedly suggested the man be administered
both chemotherapy and the drug “Bevacizumab.” But the
drug can lead to “severe or fatal hemorrhage,”
• One doctor called it “a piece of shit”
• “The report puts the blame on the IBM engineers and the
Memorial Sloan Kettering (MSK) Cancer Center doctors
who helped train the AI”
• “[recommendation] was just a part of system testing”

34. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
Watson for Oncology
• “the hospital still uses Watson's recommendations…[sees]
them as an extra opinion when they can't agree on a
treatment”
• “we have learned and improved Watson Health based on
continuous feedback from clients, new scientific evidence, and
new cancers and treatment alternatives”
• Watson for Oncology is trained to help oncologists treat 13
cancers and is being used by 230 hospitals around the world,
and has “supported care for more than 84,000 patients.”
• “No technology can replace a doctor and his or her knowledge
about their individual patient.”

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Or Can It?
• Remember AlphaGo?
• What if AI recommends the correct
treatment for a reason a human can’t
comprehend?

36. Social Connections 14 Berlin, October 16-17 2018
And Are YOU Safe?
https://www.perforce.com/blog/qac/will-ai-
replace-programmers

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