What's Next: The Ogilvy Consulting Trends for 2019

1. – T R E N D S F O R 2 0 1 9 – #OgilvyTrends2019 @OgilvyConsult

2. Introduction Hello and welcome to the Ogilvy Consulting  Trends for 2019. Five years ago, when Marshall Manson and James Whatley started this annual report, they based it on three principals: First, that they write something they enjoyed reading themselves. Second, that each forecast had to have an actionable takeaway. And third, that the following year’s report must begin with a reckoning of the previous year’s predictions. As of this 2019 report, Ogilvy Consulting is picking up the baton and we look forward to doing justice to Marshall’s and James’s legacy. On to the trends! #OgilvyTrends2019

3. 2018 Review Did we actually   get anything   right last year?

4. Augmented Reality Gets Real Trend 1: We said:  After years in the digital wilderness, 2018 might be the year AR finally takes off.   What happened:  We saw everything from paid AR designers becoming a thing on Fiverr, new AR creator apps entering the scene, AR ad units getting announced by the major platforms, and then some.   How did we do? It is undeniable how prolific the push is now for more brands and tech partners to do be doing MORE in the realm of AR. However, while adoption has sped up, brands still haven’t found the best and most valuable applications – and this is a problem the industry is yet to solve. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Zappar Youtube/MashableUK/ VR Focus/Digital Trends

5. The End of Typing Trend 2: We said:  In 2018, voice and image recognition are on the rise and soon they will become another interface for all.   What happened:  Voice grew and grew. Amazon launched Alexa for hotels, Call of Duty launched a voice-activated gamer coach, and in the UK, smart speaker ownership doubled in six months. Globally, Alexa crashed on Christmas Day due to the overload of people trying to activate their new Amazon Echos.   How did we do? Later on in this document, we’re making a fairly large bet on the future of this particular trend. As far as we’re concerned, we’re right on voice and a little off on image recognition.   The former is racing forward; the latter is taking its sweet time. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Toms Hardware

6. The Tragedy of the Commons Trend 3: We said:  There are too many brands throwing too much money at inauthentic partnerships and something will have to give.   What happened:  A LOT happened. Unilever CMO, Keith Weed, called for influencer marketing transparency. The Competition and Markets Authority investigated celebrities for not labelling sponsored posts. Multiple cases of lack of clarity with #Spon or #Ad posts were referred to the FTC and ASA. And in once instance, a rate card for a negative influencer was revealed.   How did we do? We think we were on the money with this one. The fortunate thing is that with greater awareness and legislation, comes a cleaner and clearer marketplace. The ASA has a new guide for influencers to help make clear that ads are ads – and with it, an increasing commitment to make influencer marketing a mature marketing channel for brands to invest in. #OgilvyTrends2019

7. The Amazon Awakening Trend 4: We said:  Amazon will be the most important emerging platform for digital advertising in 2018 – and it will grow and grow and grow.   What happened:  Amazon’s advertising revenue grew 122% YOY and is now worth $2.5 billion.   How did we do? I don’t think we could’ve been any more right on this one. If you’re not looking at the opportunities that Amazon Advertising can offer, you’re doing it wrong. A* for us. #OgilvyTrends2019

8. Seriously Serious Trend 5: We said:  The internet is changing and GDPR is bringing those changes in line with data protection to make a better and more secure web – you need to be ready.   What happened:  Facebook told its entire EU user base that it had to re-agree to new T&Cs (and arguably lost 3 million users in the process). GDPR came in and we all collectively and unconsciously unsubscribed to millions of email lists.   How did we do? We weren’t ever going to get this one wrong, however what has been interesting is witnessing firsthand the care and attention that is now going into data handling. Good work, everybody. #OgilvyTrends2019

9. 2019 Predictions Let’s get to   the good stuff

10. 2019 TREND 1   OMNI-CHANNEL RESURRECTS   THE HIGH STREET #OgilvyTrends2019

11. About the Trend #OgilvyTrends2019

12. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Daily Mail The high street is dying There are countless articles heralding the death of the high street. Even the most trusted commentators are jumping on the death cry; recently, the BBC listed “Six Reasons Behind the High Street Crisis,” with the shift to online shopping cited at No. 2. The growth of the ‘bricks-to-clicks’ phenomenon has been accelerated by the rise of the ‘on-demand economy’, with consumers less willing to wait to get their hands on goods and more online retailers offering same-day delivery.

13. But how bad is it, really? But while digital has undoubtedly had a major impact, the truth is that around 80% of retail sales still happen in a physical store in the UK. The UK is actually one of the world’s most advanced markets when it comes to online shopping sales. Only China has a greater proportion of retail sales coming from digital channels, according to our forecasts. Non-ecommerce sales will still contribute the largest proportion to the retail total and will grow by 2.3% in 2019. Online retail spend will grow 15% in 2019, to account for 21% of total retail. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: eMarketer

14. In October 2017, Jack Ma coined the phrase “New Retail” to describe the melding together of real world and digital shopping experiences. This wasn’t just blue-sky thinking. Alibaba plans to open 1,000 smart supermarkets in China in the next five years. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: The Print

15. Brick-and-Mortar is evolving   — not dying Retailers must pair their physical stores with a digital strategy. Pop-up stores are a good example of merging online and in-store to create an “omni-channel” customer experience. Omni-Channel NowCross-Channel AspirationMulti-Channel RealitySingle-Channel Legacy #OgilvyTrends2019

16. The resurrected store The physical store has a significant advantage over digital in many ways, but perhaps the most significant is that it allows tangible human-brand experiences. Looking ahead, there will be hugely meaningful technologies and strategies impacting the physical. Machine Learning in store Micro-fulfillment centres The ‘un-manned’ craze #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Mr Magazine

17. The 2019 Story The story so far is a warning on strategies that rely solely on online vs. offline. ASOS, a valuable retailer that bet its strategy exclusively on digital, saw its stock fall by 43% in 2018, wiping more than £1.4 billion off the market value. The news was followed by other online retailers like Boohoo and Zalando also losing significant market value. Stephen Lienert, a credit analyst at Jefferies summarised it well; “It was supposed to be bricks and mortar that’s dying and online is the future, but that headline gets ripped up today.” Notably, they all failed to pivot toward an omni- channel reality. Their potential customers are channel-agnostic; they should adopt the same mentality. For retailers to succeed, physical locations remain important, but blending online and offline experiences will become vital. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Daisuke Harashima

18. 2019 TREND 2:   THE RISE OF   THE SUPER CMO #OgilvyTrends2019

20. The CMO has been   in the press a lot recently As the complexity of the marketing function rapidly increases, many CMOs are becoming nervous about the future — not only for their organisations, but also for their careers. However, a rising number of CMOs are attuned to how marketing is transforming, and are taking the necessary steps to ensure that they (and their organisations) can survive and thrive in the age of rampant disruption. This may be a long-term platform for radical change, or a shift to doing more transformational things on a smaller scale. It may be about rethinking the role technology plays, or shifting culture, or adding new capabilities. Whatever the nature and whatever the degree, almost all CMOs and their organisations are in some kind of Marketing Transformation, and if they’re not, they’re most likely thinking about it. #OgilvyTrends2019

21. There is increased expectation   for the CMO to lead transformation   across the business Under pressure to drive business results — frequently with reduced budget and resources — CMOs are expected to evolve their organisations while managing ever more complex ‘business as usual’ scenarios.   This new accountability frequently leads to unfamiliar territory. Instead of being held to traditional marketing metrics alone, CMOs are now expected to be sales drivers, technology officers and customer experience advocates.  In some organisations, the title CMO has been replaced with titles like ‘Chief Experience Officer’ or ‘Chief Customer Officer’. Whatever the title, those responsible for the marketing function are finding that success increasingly depends on one of the core principles of Marketing Transformation: the requirement for the CMO to think and act beyond the boundaries of the marketing function. “Our consumers are the ones driving the need for transformation across all touchpoints. They expect seamless, tailored engagements at every level and on every channel, not just marketing.” CMO  Global Consumer Goods Brand #OgilvyTrends2019

22. CMOs not on the road to transformation will face an existential crisis #OgilvyTrends2019

23. The need for enterprise-wide transformation is irrefutable For the CMO, influence has often been squeezed within the organisation as: • The CIO impacts core marketing decisions such as the Marketing Technology stack • The CFO demands more performance accountability for emerging and disparate digital activities that lack standardised measurement methodologies • Lines of business seek innovation and consumer-centric products and propositions • The Sales organisation needs direct-to-consumer models and customer insight • Service becomes inseparable from marketing with the adoption of digital and omni-channel experiences   But as these responsibilities have evolved over the last several years, we see an opportunity emerging for   the CMO… BRAND BRAND &  CUSTOMER Marketing   Transformation Marketing transformation includes not only digital transformation, but also data enablement, customer centricity and more. Technological Transformation Investing in and creating a roadmap for internal and consumer-facing technology to deliver efficiency and effectiveness. Organisational   Transformation Setting up the internal and external organisation for the immediate future but also to ensure long term innovation and health. Transformation of Brand Priorities #OgilvyTrends2019

24. In 2019, the successful CMO will become the transformation agent that has the brand and the customer at its heart In the BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands report, the three most meaningful characteristics of the Top 20 Risers (the brands that increased most rapidly in value) are:  • Meaningfully Different (relevant and distinctive) • Disruptive (shaking things up) • Brand Experience (customer journey) This points to three areas central to the remit of the CMO: Brand, Innovation and Customer, and means marketing can become the glue that connects broader organisational and technological transformation.    A successful transformation should consider the core pillars of marketing operations (people, process, platform, partners), seek business and stakeholder alignment around a common vision and strategy, and instil and nurture a culture across the organisation that celebrates continued, upward change. It must also harness and maximise the effectiveness of key marketing levers and capabilities including technology, data, content, media, channels, production & measurement; ultimately, driving profitable customer growth and delivering against omni-channel experience ambitions. #OgilvyTrends2019

25. 2019 TREND 3:   IN B2B, A NEW CULTURE   OF BUSINESS IS EMERGING #OgilvyTrends2019

27. How businesses do   business is changing Let’s get one thing straight — the era of B2Boring is over. Not because most B2B companies have changed the way they do B2B (they haven’t — yet), but because there are forces at play that are changing expectations — for customers, companies and within broader culture. The archetypal price and features-driven B2B buyer is swiftly becoming extinct. Individuals are looking for more than ‘ticking boxes’ and pleasing the ‘higher ups’. Instead, a new generation of both workers and companies have come of age and are changing the way decisions are made, products and services are marketed, and the role business are engaging in broader culture and society. We call this emergent trend the new culture of business. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Forbes Magazine Cover January 2017

28. The trifecta that’s influencing the trend 1. A new tribe with new power, needs and motivations  73% of millennials are involved in the purchasing decisions of the companies they work for. They are breaking traditional moulds and exhibiting a new hierarchy of personal needs in their decision-making.  2. Entrepreneurs becoming the new cultural icons  Innovation, tech and future-oriented entrepreneurs and executives, like self-taught programmer turned cultural icon Elon Musk, are creating and driving the firms that are disrupting products, categories and business itself. Suddenly, ‘business’ is water cooler conversation.   3. Businesses defining new ways to do business  Companies such as WeWork, Salesforce and Airbnb, are redefining the world of business by questioning traditional processes, business models, economics and even the values of the business world. They are transforming the workplace and attract the best talent by embodying a strong brand purpose and delivering on values-driven commitments. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source Rolling Stone magazine cover November 2017

29. A shift from value-driven to values-driven Value to the world Value to me Value to my business #OgilvyTrends2019 The Millennial B2B buyer isn’t solely concerned about the value of any purchase they make for a company — but increasingly, what that decision means for both themselves and society. Personal and societal values are becoming more important decision-making criteria. So, vendors who help them to achieve their own personal goals are more highly regarded. Equally, purpose-driven companies with values and behaviours aligned with their customers will find themselves higher up the recommendation list. For example, the new B2B buyer might choose Salesforce over an alternative vendor in part because the company didn’t just make a ’commitment’ to pay equality, but stated its plan to immediately close the gender pay gap.

30. The year ahead and how you can drive this trend into your business #OgilvyTrends2019

31. The businesses that will grow will be those that embrace a new philosophy For business to flourish, people must flourish. The new generation of talent is looking for more from its work experience — one that is optimised for meaning and personal fulfilment, and encourages development and authentic relationships. According to a recent research report, 80% of executives believe their culture must evolve in the next five years to succeed, grow, and retain the best people. In 2019, we expect to see a dramatic increase in new talent initiatives, and more executives publicly sharing the values and relevance of the companies they work for. #OgilvyTrends2019

32. Businesses will seek to redefine their brands There are three types of Companies that thrive in the new culture of business: — Those born into it (i.e. start-ups) — Those that have maintained their new start-up culture as they have scaled (e.g. Airbnb) — Those that have evolved or are re-shaping to reflect the best qualities of the companies above (e.g. Salesforce) We suggest in 2019, as companies seek to achieve the growth rates of companies like WeWork, Spotify, Salesforce and others, they will need to redefine their brands along more progressive lines. In B2B, the benefit of transforming the brand will be the ability to attract a demanding new customer, the best talent, and the right ecosystem of partners to bolster brand presence in the new culture of business economy. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Business Insider

33. How to drive this new culture into your business Behaviours that drive the new culture of business:  • Cultivate brand love through values-based existence • Create and engage the right sources of influence, i.e, communities that share your principles • Demonstrate values, relevance and differentiation through partnerships • Build and promote ecosystems of related products and services • Provide business solutions not just products • Provide demonstrable benefit to not only to your customers’ businesses, but address your customers’ own hierarchies of needs These aren’t activities that come out of a PR department, or the CSR task force, they are baked into the DNA of the company, its leaders and its employees in equal measure. “The last, best experience that   anyone has anywhere becomes the minimum expectation for the experiences they want everywhere.” Paul Papas, IBM #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: IBM

34. 2019 TREND 4   VOICE, NOT   JUST A TREND #OgilvyTrends2019

36. In the past two years we’ve profiled the emergence and adoption of ‘voice’ as a way for customers to achieve what they set out to do in their daily lives. We identified bots in 2016 as an emerging trend; and in last year’s report – The End of Typing – we profiled the explosion of smart speakers from the likes of Amazon and Google amongst others as they sought to enter the home. Looking to 2019 it’s fair to say that we’ve reached critical mass in terms of the number of devices (phones, speakers, cars, and now even toilets!) that are voice-enabled with conversational user interfaces and voice assistants. Today #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Canalys

37. But currently voice assistants are like Dory from “Finding Nemo” – one minute after talking to them they forget everything. #OgilvyTrends2019

38. From text to voice and beyond The increased deployment of AI in users’ everyday lives is also fuelling this shift. The number of IoT devices such as smart thermostats and speakers are giving voice assistants more utility in connected users’ lives. Whilst smart speakers are the number-one way we are seeing voice being used, it only starts there. Many industry experts are predicting that nearly every application will integrate voice technology in some way in the next 5 years. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: @timoelliott

39. #OgilvyTrends2019 “I hope to have grandchildren who are mystified at how, back in 2016, if you were to say ‘Hi’ to your microwave oven, it would rudely sit there and ignore you.” Andrew Ng Stanford professor in AI and robotics, and former Chief Scientist at Baidu– #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source: Towards Data Science

40. Amazon offers Transcribe, an automatic speech recognition (ASR) service that enables developers to add speech-to-text capability to their applications. Once the voice capability is integrated into the application, users can analyse audio files and in return, receive a text file of the transcribed speech. Google has also made moves in making Assistant more ubiquitous by opening the software development kit through Actions, which allows developers to build voice into their own products that support artificial intelligence. Another one of Google’s speech-recognition products is the AI- driven Cloud Speech-to-Text tool which enables developers to convert audio to text through deep learning neural network algorithms. #OgilvyTrends2019 More ‘jobs to be done’ being enabled… Availability of voice-enabled devices is resulting in consumers becoming increasingly more comfortable with – and reliant upon – using voice to talk to their phones, wearables, vehicles, smart home devices, etc. – we stick to our prediction. That voice will become a primary interface to the digital world One of the things to keep an eye on will be the (re-)integration of Voice and Touch Interaction – CES 2018 showed that voice and displays are merging into one seamless experience. Meanwhile 800-pound gorilla Facebook has recently started shipping its contribution to the game with the launch of Portal in late 2018. All-in-all, expertise for voice interface design and voice app development will be in greater demand. And as with apps and websites before them, a new industry of developers will follow.

41. More Personalised   Responses With Contextual Understanding The last few years have been about what the user is saying, and now it will be more about why and where they are saying it. Contextual understanding is the next step for voice in order for it to become an integral part of consumers’ lives. 1. 2. Individualised   Experiences Voice assistants will also continue to offer more individualized experiences as they get better at differentiating between voices. 3. Search Behaviours   Will Change Voice search has been a hot topic of discussion. The visual interface with voice assistants is missing. Users simply cannot see or touch a voice interface unless it is connected to an app like Alexa or Google Assistant. Search behaviours, in turn, will see a big change. In fact, if Juniper’s predictions prove correct, voice-based ad revenue could reach $19 billion by 2022. 4. Beyond the   mobile device One area where we will see voice- enabled devices really take off will be in the automotive industry and in-car speech recognition. People will be able to do more on their drives to work. As a testament to this, DriveSafe.ly is a great example of an app that encourages safe driving so users can keep their eyes off their phones. #OgilvyTrends2019 In 2019 smart brands are looking out for four things

42. In the future, brand relevance is key to voice The top three reasons for using voice cited by respondents to the Mindshare and JWT study were, "It's convenient," "I don't have to type," and "It's simple to use." It is distinctly possible that voice will elevate consumer expectations of the seamlessness of products, services and information. That being the case, the value of a brand and the role that it will play in the voice-enabled environments become increasingly important to consider. For the first time, marketers will have no choice but to consider the audio characteristics of their brands. The switch in emphasis towards natural, conversational language will also require a completely new approach to search marketing, SEO and purchase process, especially given the need to respect cultural and linguistic nuances. The watchout here is exactly the same as it has been over the last decade with mobile apps – anyone can create an Alexa skill but very few of them will become popular. For companies, voice applications that don’t drive relevance through utility and a credible reflection of the brand promise will be relegated to the silence. #OgilvyTrends2019

43. 2019 TREND 5   THE 5G DREAM DEFERRED #OgilvyTrends2019

45. 5G will be the most important innovation since the internet As trials and commercial deployments become more prevalent in the news, and as whispers of 5G-enabled handsets start to emanate from smartphone manufacturers, we’re hearing more and more about the promise of 5G. There’s no doubt about it – 5G will absolutely revolutionise the way we work, play, shop and socialise. The speed, device density and latency that 5G will bring will make possible many of the most important innovations in the coming years:  • Smart cities • Autonomous vehicles • Drone-based fulfilment • Predictive health services and robotic surgery • The 4th industrial revolution in manufacturing   To name but a few. 20xfaster than 4G High bandwidth 1mslatency Low Latency 1mdevices/km2 Device Density #OgilvyTrends2019

46. Once the infrastructure is built, 5G will enable everything 5G will act as the nexus of a suite of current and emerging technologies and platforms – IoT, AI, Cloud, Edge Computing, AR/VR – and will supercharge them to do things heretofore unimagined.  To date, we’ve tended to think of 5G as “just another G”, building on the current 4G paradigm. But 5G is a step change from 4G in terms of network performance – in the lab, on the street, and in the home. Everything that 4G initially promised but has yet to deliver will come with 5G. #OgilvyTrends2019

47. #OgilvyTrends2019 The year ahead for 5G and What It Means for You

48. But 2019 will not be “The year of 5G” (and neither will 2020) To be functional, 5G requires a massive infrastructure build out in the places where it will operate, up to $300 billion in new chipsets, cell towers, routers and other hard costs over the next five years. We are only at the beginning of our 5G dream.  Commercial deployments are in their infancy, and will roll out slowly, focusing first on 5G-enabled fixed wireless for home and enterprise. The current generation of smartphones won’t work with 5G networks, and the first 5G-enabled handsets won’t appear until 2020.   And as things roll out slowly, then very quickly, 5G will become one of the most profound proofs of Amara’s law that the “we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run”.  As we wait for that long run, 5G-enabled fixed WiFi solutions are already rolling out in disparate industrial and residential areas that will start to benefit from lightning-fast wireless broadband and low latency, bringing the IoT-driven 4th Industrial Revolution to life and greatly improving the speed and quality of residential OTT and smart home solutions. #OgilvyTrends2019 / Image source:

49. Get started now thinking about what your brand and business means in a 5G world For those companies that got caught off-guard by “trends” like Web 2.0, or the “mobile revolution”, 5G is a chance at redemption. Those wise to the trend will take 2019 to begin planning for a world where customers, employees and partners will be engaging with them in very different ways.  We recommend you: • Make 5G somebody’s job • Stay on top of adoption trends • Start envisioning a world on 5G and how that will impact your brand proposition, your customer experience, your products and services, and your physical estate   Envision the future state and prepare a roadmap, however preliminary and modest at first, that works toward it. #OgilvyTrends2019

50. #OgilvyTrends2019 HERE’S A RECAP OF THE TRENDS: #1 Omni-Channel Resurrects The High Street #2 The Rise Of The Super CMO #3 In B2B, A New Culture Of Business Is Emerging #4 Voice, Not Just A Trend #5 The 5G Dream Deferred

51. BONUS BITES #OgilvyTrends2019

52. Bonus bites Bonus bites — if you’re new here — are additional thoughts and hypotheses that are put forward, often without any data to support them, which are just here to keep you thinking and maybe make you sound smarter at parties. Amazon Advertising continues to surge Last year, Amazon successfully embarked on an aggressive plan to expand its presence in advertising. This year, growth will continue as we see media budgets shift from Google and Facebook.k. The transcendence of China's tech Beyond Baidu, Alibaba and Tencent, there are China tech giants the West barely understands. But in 2019, this will change as companies look to China for innovations in electric cars, energy, and industry 4.0. Young consumers don’t want to own anything The definition of ‘wealth’ will continue to evolve as young consumers are increasingly purchasing experiences instead of goods or services. #OgilvyTrends2019

53. #OgilvyTrends2019 Ann Higgins Managing Director, Consulting Principal, Ogilvy Consulting ann.higgins@ogilvy.com Paul English Global Consulting Principal,   Digital Transformation, Ogilvy Consulting paul.english@ogilvy.com Dayoán Daumont Consulting Partner,   Customer Experience & Digital Transformation, Ogilvy Consulting dayoan.daumont@ogilvy.com

54. Thank you for reading By Ogilvy Consulting @OgilvyConsult #OgilvyTrends2019