The business opportunities according to a leading investmant banking group
Bruce Huber - Managing Director Jefferies International, Global Head Cleantech Investment Banking
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UKPVC 2010 Bruce Huber - The business opportunities according to a leading investmant banking group
1. Investment Banking Perspective: Solar PV
June 2010
Bruce Huber, Managing Director
Global Head Cleantech Investment Banking
bhuber@jefferies.com
+44 20 7029 8020
Jefferies International Limited
Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority
2. Overview Of Jefferies
Key Points Jefferies stock price has consistently outperformed peers Principal Offices
Since 01/01/00 Since 01/01/02 Since 01/01/04 Since 01/01/06 Since 01/01/08 United States
New York Stock Exchange % % % % % Atlanta
Bank Change Rank Change Rank Change Rank Change Rank Change Rank
Listed “JEF” Jefferies 395% 1 157% 1 65% 1 21% 1 18% 1 Boston
Goldman Sachs 54% 2 57% 2 47% 2 14% 2 (32%) 4 Charlotte
Founded 47 years ago JPMorgan (18%) 3 17% 3 16% 3 7% 3 (2%) 2
Barclays (24%) 4 (41%) 6 (32%) 6 (45%) 6 (33%) 5
Chicago
One of the great success Banc of America (29%) 5 (43%) 7 (56%) 8 (61%) 8 (57%) 8 Dallas
stories on Wall Street Credit Suisse (37%) 6 (30%) 4 10% 4 (26%) 4 (27%) 3
Houston
Deutsche Bank (38%) 7 (35%) 5 (22%) 5 (37%) 5 (42%) 6
Morgan Stanley (58%) 8 (46%) 8 (48%) 7 (47%) 7 (43%) 7 Los Angeles
$28 billion in assets Merrill Lynch (72%) 9 (78%) 10 (80%) 10 (71%) 9 (78%) 10 Nashville
Bear Stearns (78%) 10 (84%) 11 (88%) 11 (77%) 11 (89%) 12
2,700 employees, high Citigroup (90%) 11 (91%) 12 (91%) 12 (91%) 12 (85%) 11
New York
employee productivity UBS (92%) 12 (60%) 9 (60%) 9 (73%) 10 (66%) 9 San Francisco
Lehman Brothers (100%) 13 (100%) 13 (100%) 13 (100%) 13 (100%) 13
Silicon Valley
International headquarters in Source: Stock price from Capital IQ, as of 04/30/10
London; worldwide Stamford
headquarters in New York LTM Net Revenue / Number of Employees Washington DC
($Thousands/Employee)
35% owned by employees 1.466 Europe
and directors Frankfurt
No government involvement London
in any form 884 Paris
Zurich
Primary Dealer for Federal 665
Reserve, UK Debt 494 485 457 434 408 Asia
Management Office and 342 309
German Debt Management Hong Kong
Agency Mumbai
Shanghai
Goldman Sachs
JefferiesCredit Suisse
Deutsche JPMorgan
Morgan Stanley UBS BofA Barclays Citi
Singapore
Source: As of latest earnings announcements, except of Barclays as of 12/31/09
Tokyo
June 2010 1
3. Cleantech Investment Banking
Jefferies is one of the few international investment banks with an
integrated global Cleantech investment banking practice – covering
renewable energy and sustainable technologies
25+ professionals working across Europe, North America and Asia
Industry-focused top-rated research targeting the global Cleantech
sector – covering the entire value chain for solar, wind power, water,
advanced batteries, efficient lighting/LEDs, fuel cells, biofuels and
biomaterials
Global Cleantech industry conferences (2x per year,
Europe and North America) represent one of the
largest growth-equities platforms for investors and
issuers today
Jefferies has the leading track record
in financing emerging technologies
June 2010 2
4. Jefferies Has Raised In Excess Of $4Bn For Cleantech Clients
Globally Since ‘05
Power Management/ Solar/Wind Clean Fuels/
Power Storage/ Renewable Resources
Infrastructure
June 2010 3
5. Equity Research: We Maintain Leadership In Solar (And Broader Cleantech)
Globally Coordinated Sector Research Broad Research Coverage Of The Solar Sector
33 research professionals
% of Companies Covered by 17 senior research analysts
Market Cap
Over 150 companies covered
101 research professionals
Over 610 companies covered
2009
Research has sponsored 18
investor conferences in Europe
and US
Non-deal roadshows for 239
companies over 351 days
Jefferies Long-term Research Commitment for Bookrun Equity
Offerings the best track record in providing ongoing research for clients
Jefferies has
IPOs: Follow-ons
Avg. Autex Avg. Autex
Rank Bank % covered Rank Bank % covered
Ranking Ranking
1 Jefferies 100.0% 3.3 1 Jefferies 100.0% 4.6
2 JP Morgan 96.4% 3.8 2 Barclays 80.6% 11.6
3 Citigroup 84.0% 4.0 3 JP Morgan 78.9% 6.0
4 Deutsche Bank 83.3% 5.1 4 Deutsche Bank 73.6% 5.9
5 Credit Suisse 82.1% 2.9 5 Citigroup 72.1% 2.9
6 Barclays 77.3% 17.1 6 Credit Suisse 68.3% 3.1
7 UBS 75.0% 1.7 7 Bank of America 68.0% 2.7
8 Morgan Stanley 74.3% 1.9 8 UBS 66.1% 2.0
9 Bank of America 73.5% 16.9 9 Goldman Sachs 61.5% 7.3
10 Goldman Sachs 72.4% 6.2 10 Morgan Stanley 50.0% 2.8
Sources: Bloomberg and Autex. Includes Follow-Ons and IPOs from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2009. Autex ranking is from pricing to 30 June 2009. Excludes bought deals.
June 2010 4
6. Strong Fundamental Drivers Continue To Propel Solar’s Growth
Solar poised for strong growth (GW) (1) PV module prices are declining towards retail grid parity (2)
APP $/Wp
GW 4,50 3,84
18
16
4,00 3,77
16 14 14
3,50
14 2,47
3,00
12 2,37 1,92
8 2,50
10
2,00
1,69
8
6 1,50
4 1,00
2 0,50
0 0,00
2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 2010
c-Si Europe c-Si China Thin-Film
a-Si
While Europe continues to dominate end market installation, global annual PV projections show gradual shift toward US, China
and India (1)
2009: ~8GW 2012: ~16GW
35%
Germany
22%
Spain
Italy
5% 4% France
52%
5% UK
3%
0% 1% Czech Republic
3%
4% 38%
Rest of Europe
10%
3% RoW
12%
3%
(1) Source: Jefferies estimates; Bloomberg New Energy Finance
(2) Source: Jefferies. Average purchase price for end buyers of solar modules
June 2010 5
7. Trading Performance Of Solar Since ’09 Shows High Volatility
…Except For Component Suppliers Who Represent Bottlenecks In The Supply Chain!
300
Solar
250 Components
150%
200
150
FTSE 100
15%
100 Downstream
(4%)
Solar Cells/
Modules
50
(18%)
Integrated
Solar
(24%)
0
jan 09 feb 09 mrt 09 mei 09 jun 09 aug 09 sep 09 nov 09 dec 09 feb 10 mrt 10 apr 10 jun 10
Integrated Solar Solar Cells / Modules Downstream Solar Components FTSE 100 Index - Share Pricing
Integrated Solar: REC, SolarWorld, First Solar, SunPower, Yingli Green. Solar Cells/Modules: Canadian Solar, Suntech Power Holdings, Q-Cells, ReneSola, JA Solar, Solon, Evergreen Solar. Downstream: Centrosolar, Conergy, Solaria Energía y Medio Ambiente, Phönix Solar.
Solar Components: SMA, STR Holding.
As of 18/06/2010.
June 2010 6
8. The Solar Market Is Shifting Downstream: ‘Solar 2.0’
‘Solar 2.0’ is about: German market growth still dominates for 2010, but
this market is becoming more saturated…
Delivering end customer solutions
Germany – Annual installations
Customer access and strong distribution models (MW) ? Major focus of the global solar
4.000 7%
industry until FiT reduction that
Offerings that deliver competitive costs for customers – whether 2.000
should become effective in July
‘10
measured in $/Wp, cost per kWh, or attractive IRRs 0
2010 2011 2012
High brand value
…Bringing other European markets into focus
UK – Annual installations (MW)
Robust business models 300 151%
261
Attractive FiT (41.5p/kWh)
200 122%
Scale 104 since Apr ‘10
100 47
2010-2012 CAGR: 136%
0
Asset-light with outsourced manufacturing and agnostic to the
2010 2011 2012
capital intensive upstream business
France – Annual installations (MW)
554
600 32%
Focused on operating leverage and cash generation 56% 420
400 270 One of the hottest PV markets,
200
with the highest FiT for BIPV
(up to 0.58 €/kWh)
Well established companies 0
2010 2011 2012
Established track record
Italy – Annual installations (MW)
Extremely favourable FiT
15%
Low technology risk 2.000 13% 1.595 scheme (up to 0.46 €/kWh)
1.225 1.386
1.500 2010 will be a record year, with
1.000 high PV demand continuing in
Practical product innovation (evolution vs. revolution)
500 2011 and 2012
0
2010 2011 2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
June 2010 7
9. There Are Surprisingly Few Downstream Rooftop Installers With Scale
Company Domicile Country End Markets Key Characteristics
Strong downstream distribution network.
Germany
~150MW sold in 2009.
Offering standardised solutions for residential rooftops.
Germany
> 90MW integrated systems sold in 2009
One-stop shop and fully-serviced solution for private homes.
Germany
Will install ca. 65-70MW in Germany in 2010.
Offering both highly customised premium BIPV installations and
standardised kits for rooftops.
United Kingdom
Over 780 commercial and public sector installations completed
since 1999; also an active distributor.
Created SolarLease®, a way for homeowners to set up their
own solar system without any upfront cost.
United States
More than 500 workers operating in Arizona, Colorado, Oregon
and Texas, in addition to California.
Offering residential and commercial customers a fully-serviced
system, including financing.
Netherlands
Around 15,000 installations completed across Europe; will
install ca. 100MW in 2010.
Offering commercial solar rooftop systems at no capital outlay.
United States >52MW of hands-on installation experience and over 31MW
under management.
Offers rooftop leasing solutions to customers.
Germany
>85MW completed to date in 3,600 installations.
June 2010 8
10. UK FiT Are Amongst The Most Attractive In Europe (For Rooftops)
Average
New FiT Effective
Country First Introduction Current FiT (EUR/kWh) Latest Gov’t Proposed FIT Change Irradiation kWh/
From:
m2/day
UK 0.43* (< 4kW new built residential
and >4-10kW)
2.61 (London)
April 2010 0.50* (< 4kW retrofit) Just implemented April 2010 Apr 2010
3.00 (Southampton)
0.38* (>10-100kW)
0.35* (>100kW – 5MW)
German 0.25 – 0.33 -16% rooftop Jul 2010
y 0.25 -11% conversion land free field Jul 2010
January 2000
(amended in 2004, 0.24 -15% non-agricultural free field Jul 2010 2.52 (Hamburg)
2008, new revision 3.12 (Munich)
0.21 No longer subsidies for agricultural land Jul 2010
pending Jul 2010)
Growth corridor -9%; -3% each GW above
0.21 Jan 2011
3.5GW
Spain 0.34 (BIPV <20kW) FIT modification expected in 2010 (in any
event no later than 2012)
January 2007, new Cuts expected by up to 25% 2010, but no later than Jan
0.31 (>20kW and <2MW) 4.61 (Barcelona)
revision pending 2012
Gov' t initiated industry contacts
0.32 (Non BIPV <10MW) Cap likely to be revised
Italy By Sept. ’11: 0.257 -25% ground >1MW
0.266 -22% ground < 1MW Three quarterly steps from
Q1 through Q3 2011
September 2005 0.323 -6% rooftop <200 KW 3.33 (Milan)
6% yoy reduction by
0.314 -8% rooftop <1MW 2012 - 13
0.295 -14% rooftop >1MW
France 0.42 – 0.58 (BIPV) -3% to -30% on rooftop Jan 2010
January 2008 0.31 + bonus -5% free field, but up to 20% bonus Jan 2010 3.34 (Paris)
10% digression in 2012
* GBPEUR exchange rate: 1.20
Source: Jefferies’ research
June 2010 9
11. The Strategic M&A Markets For Solar Have Been Active
EV /
Transaction EV /
Date Target Acquirer Revenu Segment Rationale
Value ($m) EBITDA
e
Unirac’s PV solar mounting
Downstream solutions complement Hilti’s
May-10 140 Est.~3x NA
Components offering for solar parks and
rooftops
NextLight provides First Solar with
Downstream
Apr-10 285 NA 3.6x over 1.1GW of development
Pipeline
pipeline in the US
Solutia becomes the world’s only
Mar-10 327 NA NA Components one-stop source for solar
encapsulant solutions
SunRay has 1.2GW development
Downstream
Feb-10 277 NA NA pipeline in Southern Europe and
Pipeline
the Middle East
GCL expanded its ingots and wafer
Jan-10 Konca Solar Cell 125 NA NA Cells/Modules
business
Concentrix acquisition represents a
Downstream
Nov-09 64 NA NA natural expansion for Soitec into
Pipeline
the solar market
SunEdison’s has a strong solar
Downstream
Nov-09 318 NA NA rooftop distribution network in the
Distribution
US
Aleo’s broad sales and distribution
Downstream network in Germany represents a
Nov-09 282 0.5x 10.4x
Distribution complement to Bosch’s acquisition
of Ersol
Jefferies advised
Source: Bloomberg NEF, Thomson, Capital IQ. All values in USDm.
June 2010 10
12. Key Take-Aways
Solar is a massive growth market – 16GW in 2012
($40-50 Billion market in today’s currency)
The UK offers attractive fundamentals
Good solar irradiation – comparable to Germany, the world’s largest solar market
(approaching 10GW in 2010!)
Attractive feed-in-tariff structure for rooftops – although not ideally suited for
solar parks given space/planning constraints
Strong government support (at least through 2013)
Substantial growth (from a small base)
‘Solar 2.0’ is all about downstream execution and innovation
Upstream manufacturing mainly concentrated in China/Asia - although volatile
currency movements may provide European suppliers with a ‘stay of execution’
Regional leaders provide efficient installation (<€3/Wp), scale, O&M services,
energy re-sale, tolling, other services?
IRRs are significantly impacted by low installation costs!
Innovative financing is becoming an important area of focus
Finance vehicles an important facilitator, noting that scale matters in financing –
IRRs can double with leverage
Project finance is available, but time consuming and restricted
Capital markets structures for scale deployments
June 2010 11