IFPRI - Dr. P.K. Joshi's presentation at the National Consultation Workshop on Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security Policies in Sri Lanka
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Presented at "National Consultation Workshop on Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security Policies in Sri Lanka" jointly organized by Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka (IPS) and International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) from July 16-17, 2015 at Colombo, Sri Lanka.
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IFPRI - Dr. P.K. Joshi's presentation at the National Consultation Workshop on Challenges and Opportunities for Food Security Policies in Sri Lanka
- 1. Food and Nutrition Security in South Asia: Challenges and Opportunities P K Joshi International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI-South Asia Regional Office, NASC Complex, Pusa New Delhi 110 012 India E-mail: p.joshi@cgiar.org Web: www.ifpri.org
- 2. International Food Policy Research Institute Outline Key challenges in South Asian countries Opportunities in South Asia region Approaches for ensuring food & nutrition security
- 3. I Key Challenges in South Asian countries
- 4. International Food Policy Research Institute Asia has largest concentration of undernourished population in the world (million) 1990-92 2010-12 World 1000 868 Africa 175 239 Asia 739 565 S Asia 327 304 SE Asia 134 65 Asia in the world 74% in 1990-92 to 65% now 27% in Africa South Asia in world 33% in 1990-92 to 35% now Southeast Asia in world 14% in 1990-92 to 7% now South Asian countries High economic growth Poor agriculture
- 5. International Food Policy Research Institute Acute Undernourishment in SAARC Countries Country Under- nourished (%) Child malnourishment, % Low birth weight (%) Anemic children (%)Underweight Stunted Bangladesh 26.0 41.3 43.2 22 47 India 22.0 43.5 47.9 28 74 Nepal 16.0 38.8 49.3 21 48 Pakistan 23.0 31.1 41.5 32 51 Sri Lanka 21.0 21.1 17.3 18 30 South Asia 22.0 41.1 46.4 27 74
- 6. International Food Policy Research Institute Malnutrition in ASEAN Countries Country Undernourished population (%) Underweight children, % Child mortality rate, % Cambodia 25 29 5.1 Indonesia 13 20 3.5 Lao PDR 22 32 5.4 Malaysia 2 13 0.6 Philippines 13 21 2.9 Thailand 16 7 1.3 Vietnam 11 20 2.3
- 7. International Food Policy Research Institute Global Hunger Index(2014): Country performance by severity Alarming or extremely alarming levels of hunger in 16 countries; Sri Lanka ranked 37/79 countries; India 65/79 (55/76)
- 8. International Food Policy Research Institute Global Hunger Index and South Asia
- 9. International Food Policy Research Institute GHI and HDI in SAARC and ASEAN Country GHI/79 HDI/187 Af’stan Na 97 B’desh 68 134 Bhutan NA 141 India 65 145 Nepal 60 146 Pakistan 57 157 S Lanka 37 172 Country GHI/79 HDI/187 Brunei * 33 Cam’dia 56 139 Indo’sia 30 124 Lao DPR 57 138 Malaysia 3 61 Phil’ines 31 112 Singapore * 26 Thailand 18 103 Viet Nam 26 128
- 10. International Food Policy Research Institute Yield of Rice and Maize in South and Southeast Asian Countries (kg/ha) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Rice Maize 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Rice Maize
- 11. International Food Policy Research Institute Smallholder Agriculture 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.23 3.11 Holding size, ha Tiny size of holdings Majority are marginal, having lands < 1 ha Bangladesh 87% India 80% Nepal 90% Pakistan 36% Major objective Food self-sufficiency
- 12. International Food Policy Research Institute Public agricultural research spending (Source: GFPR 2014) 0.5 0.4 0.34 0.31 0.23 0.21 0.42 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 % of AgGDP % ag research spending of Ag GDP: Asian countries China India Sri Lanka Bangladesh Nepal Pakistan Asia pacific 757 2276 1703 4048 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Actual PPP Spending on ag research (m US$) India China Spending in African countries South Africa 2.18% Kenya 1.21% Malawi 1.03% Ghana 0.69% Africa 0.51% Latin American & Caribbean Brazil 1.52% Mexico 1.15% LA&C 1.10%
- 13. International Food Policy Research Institute Weak Institutions Market risks Long supply chains, high transactions costs and post- harvest losses Higher transactions costs: 15% vegetables & 20% for milk Post harvest losses: 25-30% Low processing: <15% milk and 1 % meat processed Access to credit More informal sector Food safety and quality Rejection of consignments
- 14. International Food Policy Research Institute Climate change and food security Rise in temperature During last 70 years, temperature has increased by 1 degree cel. Approximately, 0.14 degree c per decade. During last 22 years, it increased .2 degree c per decade Minimum-maximum temperature increased Dry days increased in dry and intermediate region Rainfall pattern is changing and intensity of droughts increasing 2012: Drought followed by cyclone and floods 30% rice production was lost: 70% rice producer are small
- 15. International Food Policy Research Institute Policy Challenges • Political uncertainty Policy paralysis & uncertainty • High cost that obstruct reforms Appeasing policies • Policy gapsWeak governance • Policy analysis and executionWeak capacity • Controls, regulations and delays Powerful bureaucracy
- 16. II Opportunities in South Asian countries
- 17. International Food Policy Research Institute Expenditure elasticities (based on FCDS) Food Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri lanka Rice -0.078 -0.016 0.016 0.025 -0.071 Wheat 0.004 -0.109 -0.111 -0.121 -0.027 Veg’bles 0.500 0.673 0.599 0.565 0.748 Fruits 0.666 0.702 0.698 0.710 0.556 Milk 0.581 0.589 0.634 0.575 0.689 Meat 0.822 0.892 0.860 0.670 0.866
- 18. International Food Policy Research Institute Annual per capita consumption (kg) Food item 2000 2025 Change, % Rice 75.27 72.14 -4.16 Wheat 60.48 57.11 -5.58 Food grains 168.13 160.42 -4.59 Veg’bles 51.99 87.47 68.26 Fruits 35.17 61.87 75.76 Milk 70.42 117.45 66.80 Meat 5.35 10.90 103.62 Eggs 1.51 3.02 100.04 Fish 5.69 11.28 98.06
- 19. International Food Policy Research Institute Annual growth in demand for food (%) Food item 2000-15 2015-25 2000-25 Rice 1.27 0.92 1.13 Wheat 1.18 0.88 1.06 Food grains 1.24 0.91 1.11 Veg’bles 3.85 2.81 3.43 Fruits 4.04 2.98 3.61 Milk 3.79 2.82 3.41 Meat 4.70 3.51 4.22 Eggs 4.64 3.43 4.16 Fish 4.59 3.40 4.11
- 20. International Food Policy Research Institute 5 pathways to raise income Increase per unit land productivity: rice has potential for 8-10 t / ha, but getting around 4 t. Diversification for more remunerative commodities – HVCs. Their demand is growing. Link farmers with remunerative domestic and global markets Adapt to climate change Generate employment opportunities
- 21. International Food Policy Research Institute 5 steps to overcome food & nutrition security (WFP report) <5 years children, pregnant women, and lactating mothers should receive nutritive food Social vulnerable groups are provided unconditional cash, or vouchers Work for assets, cash for work, cash for training Generate employment opportunities Support back end to increase productivity
- 22. International Food Policy Research Institute Agricultural Research for Sustainable Development Food security: Gene, energy, land water Technologies, Policies and Institutions Food Security Land Water Gene Energy Climate smart
- 23. International Food Policy Research Institute Promote climate smart agriculture (Source: Aggarwal 2010) Climate Smart Nitrogen smart Water smart Energy smart Carbon smart Weather smart Knowledge smart Policy smart Climate smart interventions (FAO) Adapting/mitigating climate change Ensure reducing the risk arising due to climate change Augmenting farm income. Triple wins (World Bank) Higher yields, more carbon sequestration, and greater resilience to heat and drought Feasible interventions Resource endowments Capacity indicators
- 24. III Lessons for ensuring Food & Nutrition Security in Sri Lanka
- 25. International Food Policy Research Institute What lessons can be learnt from global initiative 2nd International conference on nutrition Emphasis on multi-sectoral approach for nutrition security: nutrition-agriculture, and agriculture-health Zero hunger in Brazil fast growing economy to tackle food insecurity and hunger challenges Post 2015 agenda of achieving food and nutrition security by 2030 IFPRI's COMPACT 2025 Social protection plans from other countries
- 26. International Food Policy Research Institute Indian illustration: Government strategy for ensuring food security (national and household) • Food Security Mission • Subsidy in fertilizer and irrigation • MSP and assured procurement Production • Food reserve and stocks (>80 million ton) • 500 thousand fair price shops Availability • Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Program • Direct Cash Transfer Access • Subsidized food to people BPL • Food Security Bill (Right to Food) Affordability
- 27. International Food Policy Research Institute Sri Lanka approach for food & nutrition security Food based approach for adequate, safe and quality food Dietary diversity to ensure nutrients Nutrient enhancement through fortification Enact and implement food safety regulations
- 28. International Food Policy Research Institute Conditions for success Investment Improved technologies Develop appropriate institutions Capacity development of key stakeholders Coordination among stakeholders Better weather or disaster forecast
- 29. International Food Policy Research Institute What next? IFPRI intends to undertake research by documenting and analysing best practices Capacity development in policy analysis and policy communication Develop value chain in domestic and global markets by engaging private sector Develop food & nutrition policy and its implementation sstrategy
- 30. Thank you