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i-React for
Climate Change
Gabriele Franch, Azra Alikadic, Andrea Gobbi, Cesare Furlanello
FBK // MPBA
EUROPE
(1980-2013)
4,443 events
111,211 people killed
33,031,632 people affected
480,398,000,000 € economic
damage
FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS
6.3 9
20 3
MILLION € COUNTRIES
PARTNERS YEARS
2016
2017
2018
2019
FUNDED BY THE
EUROPEAN
COMMISSION.
SECURITY WORK
PROGRAMME
(DRS-1-2015)
12 SME
3 RESEARCH CENTERS
2 Universities
2 Public Companies/ Institutes
1 UN Body
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
Finland
Austria
United
Kingdom
Norway
Serbia
I-REACTOR
DATA SOURCESAND MODELS
EU & LOCAL
EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
GEOSPATIAL RISK MODELS
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODELS
SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST
HISTORICAL DATA
SOCIAL MEDIA DATA STREAMS
CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS
The European Flood danger forecasts (EFAS),
European hazard fire maps (EFFIS) will be combined
with local early warning systems.
I-REACT will implement a system to
extract valuable information about
ongoing disasters from the messages
published on Twitter.
Hazard mapping services for floods, fires and heat
waves will be combined with exposure and
vulnerability to compute risk maps.
I-REACT will create a decision support system to
suggest to decision makers appropriate actions for
disaster risk reduction.
I-REACT will analyse available historical data about past
emergencies and also store all data generated within
the platform to improve future emergencies response.
I-REACT will provide information of how average
weather conditions are likely to evolve from 6 months
(higher resolution) up to 9 months (lower resolution).
To asses the long-term impact on floods and
wildfires due to climate change, I-REACT models
will provide an overview of the general trends and
help establishing sites of high risk.
TO TURN DATA INTOCRUCIAL INFORMATION
CROWDSOURCED
INFORMATION
IMPROVED MAPS HISTORICAL RECORDSEARLY WARNING
FORECAST
SATELLITE DATA
I-REACT will leverage upon the
European Earth Observation
programme Copernicus that will be
a vital resource for I-REACT
mapping. Also, Sentinel-1 will
provide data to our automatic data
chain for flood mapping.
The European Flood danger
forecasts (EFAS), European hazard
fire maps (EFFIS) together with
seasonal weather forecast will be
integrated with local early warning
systems to deliver the most
accurate early warning forecast
possible.
Information from Social Media and
reporting from first responders and
citizens will add real-time in-field
information.
The use of drones (UAVs) and
wearables with the integration of
crowdsourced data with accurate
positioning will improve existing
maps and produce new nowcast
and forecast for emergency
response.
I-REACT will analyse available
historical data about past
emergencies and also store all
data generated within the
platform to improve future
emergencies response.
SOCIAL MEDIA
DATA STREAMS
UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES
SEASONAL
WEATHER FORECAST
EARTH OBSERVATIONS
PREPAREDNESSPREVENTION RESPONSE
INTEGRATION OF
EXISTING SYSTEMS
HISTORIAL DATA
CITIZENS
FIRST RESPONDERS
AUTHORITIES
DATA PRODUCTS BIG DATA INTEGRATION TECHNOLOGIES STAKEHOLDERS
DECISSION SUPPORT SYSTEM
PROFESSIONAL APP
GNSS WEARABLE AUGMENTED REALITY
SMARTPHONE APP
WEB INTERFACES
I-REACTOR
I-REACT IN A NUTSHELL
.
A HEAT WAVE FORECAST
SYSTEM FOR EUROPE
• HeatWave: ´´three consecutive days of over-
threshold maximum temperature´´
• Model: Heat Wave Magnitude Index (Russo, 2015)
• Daily maximum temperatures
• 30 years historical data
• 14 days forecast
• Every day measured temperature
• A new FBK Module for iReact
• 25 km resolution
Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Fischer, Enrich M. (2015). Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and
their occurrence in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, no. 12.
THIS SUMMER LUCIFER HEAT WAVE
STRUCK EUROPE31/7 – 9/8 2017
FORECAST OF 02-08-2017 DURING LUCIFER
+ 1 day + 3 day + 5 day
Tool for emergency alert warnings, because it takes in consideration
the complete duration and intensity of heat waves with a valid
forecast of 14 days.
Applicable also on a local level for emergency warning alerts and for
adaptive strategies.
GEODATASCIENCE IN TRENTINO
• From Global EU models to a public repository of
all/best climatic data of interest for climate
change
• Enabling research and new applications
climatlas.fbk.eu
DATA
3.5 millions of measures
60 stations in total (38 Meteotrentino, 22 FEM)
daily data series starting from 1921
Going towards
100 years
of data!
• FBK infrastructure distributed on
two dedicated servers
• Migrating to virtual machines at
Datacenter InfoTN
• Stack software 100% open source
UNDER THE HOOD
Annuale
Inverno
Primavera
Estate
Autunno
Gennaio
Febbraio
Marzo
Aprile
Maggio
Giugno
Luglio
Agosto
Settembre
Ottobre
Novembre
Dicembre
Climatic maps report the
monthly, annual and seasonal
distribution of TEMPERATURE
for the three climatic
reference periods 1961-1990,
1971-2000 and 1981-2010
Spatial algorithm:
Optimal Interpolation
Resolution: 200 x 200 m
THANK YOU
Gabriele Franch
Contact: franch@fbk.eu

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IReact for climate change: predictive mapping

  • 1. i-React for Climate Change Gabriele Franch, Azra Alikadic, Andrea Gobbi, Cesare Furlanello FBK // MPBA
  • 2. EUROPE (1980-2013) 4,443 events 111,211 people killed 33,031,632 people affected 480,398,000,000 € economic damage FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS
  • 3. 6.3 9 20 3 MILLION € COUNTRIES PARTNERS YEARS 2016 2017 2018 2019 FUNDED BY THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION. SECURITY WORK PROGRAMME (DRS-1-2015) 12 SME 3 RESEARCH CENTERS 2 Universities 2 Public Companies/ Institutes 1 UN Body Italy France Spain Germany Finland Austria United Kingdom Norway Serbia
  • 4. I-REACTOR DATA SOURCESAND MODELS EU & LOCAL EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS GEOSPATIAL RISK MODELS DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM MODELS SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST HISTORICAL DATA SOCIAL MEDIA DATA STREAMS CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS The European Flood danger forecasts (EFAS), European hazard fire maps (EFFIS) will be combined with local early warning systems. I-REACT will implement a system to extract valuable information about ongoing disasters from the messages published on Twitter. Hazard mapping services for floods, fires and heat waves will be combined with exposure and vulnerability to compute risk maps. I-REACT will create a decision support system to suggest to decision makers appropriate actions for disaster risk reduction. I-REACT will analyse available historical data about past emergencies and also store all data generated within the platform to improve future emergencies response. I-REACT will provide information of how average weather conditions are likely to evolve from 6 months (higher resolution) up to 9 months (lower resolution). To asses the long-term impact on floods and wildfires due to climate change, I-REACT models will provide an overview of the general trends and help establishing sites of high risk.
  • 5. TO TURN DATA INTOCRUCIAL INFORMATION CROWDSOURCED INFORMATION IMPROVED MAPS HISTORICAL RECORDSEARLY WARNING FORECAST SATELLITE DATA I-REACT will leverage upon the European Earth Observation programme Copernicus that will be a vital resource for I-REACT mapping. Also, Sentinel-1 will provide data to our automatic data chain for flood mapping. The European Flood danger forecasts (EFAS), European hazard fire maps (EFFIS) together with seasonal weather forecast will be integrated with local early warning systems to deliver the most accurate early warning forecast possible. Information from Social Media and reporting from first responders and citizens will add real-time in-field information. The use of drones (UAVs) and wearables with the integration of crowdsourced data with accurate positioning will improve existing maps and produce new nowcast and forecast for emergency response. I-REACT will analyse available historical data about past emergencies and also store all data generated within the platform to improve future emergencies response.
  • 6. SOCIAL MEDIA DATA STREAMS UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES SEASONAL WEATHER FORECAST EARTH OBSERVATIONS PREPAREDNESSPREVENTION RESPONSE INTEGRATION OF EXISTING SYSTEMS HISTORIAL DATA CITIZENS FIRST RESPONDERS AUTHORITIES DATA PRODUCTS BIG DATA INTEGRATION TECHNOLOGIES STAKEHOLDERS DECISSION SUPPORT SYSTEM PROFESSIONAL APP GNSS WEARABLE AUGMENTED REALITY SMARTPHONE APP WEB INTERFACES I-REACTOR
  • 7. I-REACT IN A NUTSHELL .
  • 8. A HEAT WAVE FORECAST SYSTEM FOR EUROPE • HeatWave: ´´three consecutive days of over- threshold maximum temperature´´ • Model: Heat Wave Magnitude Index (Russo, 2015) • Daily maximum temperatures • 30 years historical data • 14 days forecast • Every day measured temperature • A new FBK Module for iReact • 25 km resolution Russo, Simone and Sillmann, Jana and Fischer, Enrich M. (2015). Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters, vol. 10, no. 12.
  • 9. THIS SUMMER LUCIFER HEAT WAVE STRUCK EUROPE31/7 – 9/8 2017
  • 10. FORECAST OF 02-08-2017 DURING LUCIFER + 1 day + 3 day + 5 day
  • 11. Tool for emergency alert warnings, because it takes in consideration the complete duration and intensity of heat waves with a valid forecast of 14 days. Applicable also on a local level for emergency warning alerts and for adaptive strategies.
  • 12. GEODATASCIENCE IN TRENTINO • From Global EU models to a public repository of all/best climatic data of interest for climate change • Enabling research and new applications
  • 14. DATA 3.5 millions of measures 60 stations in total (38 Meteotrentino, 22 FEM) daily data series starting from 1921 Going towards 100 years of data!
  • 15. • FBK infrastructure distributed on two dedicated servers • Migrating to virtual machines at Datacenter InfoTN • Stack software 100% open source UNDER THE HOOD
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  • 17. Annuale Inverno Primavera Estate Autunno Gennaio Febbraio Marzo Aprile Maggio Giugno Luglio Agosto Settembre Ottobre Novembre Dicembre Climatic maps report the monthly, annual and seasonal distribution of TEMPERATURE for the three climatic reference periods 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1981-2010 Spatial algorithm: Optimal Interpolation Resolution: 200 x 200 m