Overview Of Housing/Credit Crisis And Why There Is More Pain To Come
6th Western Borrowers N Investors Mezz Loans And Distress Debt 26 March09
1. By: Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director
The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
www.TheCrestLife.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
Tel: (305) 793-5762; Fax: (305) 665-3971
Scott L. Podvin: Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt –
April 27-28, 2009
2. UPDATE: TARP AND
GOVERNMENT LIQUIDITY
FACILITIES
9:45 Scrutinizing Government Bailout and Liquidity Facilities: What Will They Mean For Real Estate
Mezzanine Financing?
• Examining the Treasury/Obama Administration's initiatives to relieve balance sheets and the capital
markets. What signals have been given about the Administration's plans for managing the quot;rescuequot; funds?
• Is a bailout for Commercial Real Estate a good or bad idea? Why?
• Will TARP recipients begin shedding troubled loan assets in 2009?
• Will the lack of credit encourage Opportunity Funds to originate mezzanine-like debt?
• What will TARP ultimately mean for the Real Estate Mezzanine loan industry?
• Fed Bad Bank: How will it operate? How will they deal with the bad paper? What is the time frame?
Comparing and contrasting with the RTC
• What will be the role of regulators in the new economic landscape?
• Why are certain banks refusing TARP money? Are community banks discriminated against in favor of
money-center banks when it comes to bailouts?
• Why is credit so scarce after billions of TARP dollars were put to work?
• How will an extended recession affect local, regional and money-center banks?
Moderator:
Mark Grinis, Partner, Ernst & Young LLP
Panelists:
Richard K. Hollowell, Managing Director, Alvarez & Marsal Real Estate Advisory Services, LLC
Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director, The Crest At Waterford Lakes, LLC
Mark Landau, Managing Director, GoldenBridge Advisors
Jay N. Rollins, President, JCR Capital
Chad Robins, CEO - North Amercia, Opportune
Stuart Boesky, Chief Executive Officer, The Pembrook Group, LLC
3. DIRE OUTLOOK FOR WORLD
ECONOMY
12mm
pple in
US
looking
• Capital Markets are closed
for
• European Recession Deepening and UE
work
rising: now at 8.5%
• Europe's recession risks lasting into
• IMF is expected to borrow
2010
$100Bn from Japan and
• US deals drop from 154 to 99; • European Central Bank's revises down
may even issue bonds, an
UK deals fell from 74 to 50; its 2010 growth forecast for eurozone
unprecedented step in its
FASB Revises rules from 1% to zero.
64-yr history
Securitization trusts hold 1.5T • 3 European governments have fallen -
•
• Russia to supervise a
in Belgium, Latvia and Iceland, which
of subprime and alt-A consolidation plan that would
is not a EU member but could soon
loans, $400B of which are see the number of banks cut
apply to join – IMF called in for
delinquent from 1,100 to 500.
Hungary, Romania and Latvia.
• Global financial tsunami
• Growth expected to resume • Europe needs a unified front on the
batters Hong Kong, as it
early 2010, IF successful economic crisis.
falls into recession
resolution to banking crisis • WORLD BANK FOUND 17 OF THE G20
HAVE IMPLEMENTED 47 MEASURES
• 742,000 jobs cut in March and
SINCE LAST G20 SUMMIT WITH A
706,000 in February.
PROTECTIONIST AGENDA
• Mexico seeks $47Bn credit
line from IMF
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April
27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
3
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
4. BIG DEBT
• By 2012, the ratio of gross public debt to
gross domestic product could be:
• 117% in Italy;
• 97% in the US;
• 80% in France;
• 79% in Germany; &
• 75% in the UK.
• 224% in Japan
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers &
Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine
Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April
27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
5. *The chart (left)
shows the flow
of consumer
credit by type in
2007 & 08.
Securitized
lending took a
U-turn, $22Bn in
„07 to $28Bn in
‟08
*Lending by
finance
companies
turned negative
as well, -$7
billion in 2008.
*Tight credit
conditions are
the primary drag
on consumer
credit; and
therefore, spend
ing is collapsing.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April
27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
6. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
7. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt --
April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
8. RED INK OF A GREYER FUTURE
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
9. NATIONALIZING THE BANKING SYSTEM
Total losses now exceed impact of RTC
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
10. NATIONAL DEBT FORECASTS
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
11. BEAST OF BURDEN
US BRITAIN
• US has seen forecasts • Britain has seen a
for its national debt as bigger increase in its
a share of gross forecast debt
domestic product in burden, from 43 per
2012 rise from 66 per cent to 75 per cent
cent to 97 per cent
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
12.
13. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate
Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
14. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
15. FORECAST FOR DEFAULTS
AND BANKRUPTCIES
• Debt defaults increase at double-digit rate next 24
months
• 160 to 190 defaults in 2009
• B/n 120 and 140 in 2010
• Typically, 2 out of 3 to 3 out of 4 defaults end in
bankruptcies within 3 months.
• Thus, we are looking at:
– 150 bankruptcies in 2009 and
– 100 in 2010.
according to a bi-annual study in November 2008 by Bain Corporate Renewal Group.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
16. ASSET BUBBLE
W/ CRATERING VALUES
• U.S. home
owners lost a
cumulative $3.3T
in home values
in
2008, according
to Zillow.
• Since
2006, more than
$6.1T in quot;valuequot;
has evaporated.
Recipe for real estate bubble: slice of mbs into a bowl of
cdos and (add) another layer of cdos on top
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
17. THE GRAND PLAN
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
18. Public Law 110-343/HR 1424
SON OF TARP IS BORNE
• Effective October 3, 2008, this 169-
page law created a $700 billion
dollar Troubled Assets Relief
Program under the Emergency
Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
(division A), and also enacted the
Energy Improvement and Extension
Act of 2008 (division B), Tax
Extenders and Alternative Minimum
Tax Relief Act of 2008 (division C)
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
19.
20. WHAT‟S LEFT
• 81% of $700Bn in TARP is
committed.
• $135Bn of TARP funds
available
–$22Bn of which will go to
auto industry
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
21. PARTIAL PAYMENTS COMING IN
• Four banks paid back TARP money:
1. Signature Bank of NY repays $120MM
2. Old National Bank of Indiana repays
$100MM
3. Iberiabank of LA paid back $90MM
4. Bank of Marin Bancorp of
Novato, Calif rapid $28MM
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
22. TALF
• Of $700Bn of TARP money, $100Bn
earmarked for TALF;
• NY Fed. Res. Bank uses $100Bn as
collateral on loans to be made to
investors in asset backed securities
(ABS) such as CMBS.
• Facility expires 12/31/2009.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans &
Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
23. TALF‟S “ELIGIBLE BORROWERS”
Any U.S. Co. owning “eligible collateral” w/ primary
dealer acct.
An entity is a U.S. company for TALF if:
– (i) Business entity organized under US laws; or
– (ii) U.S. branch or agency of foreign bank (other
than a foreign central bank) that maintains
reserves with a Fed. Res. Bank; or
– (iii) U.S.-organized investment fund managed by US
investment manager.
• NO entity controlled by a foreign gov‟t or is mngd by
an investment mngr controlled by a foreign gov‟t.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
24. WHAT IS AN “INVESTMENT FUND” FOR
PURPOSES OF THE TALF “ELIGIBLE
BORROWER” DEFINITION?
An investment fund is any type of pooled
investment vehicle, including a:
1. Hedge Fund,
2. Private Equity fund, and
3. Mutual Fund, or
4. Vehicle that primarily or exclusively
invests in eligible collateral and
borrows from the TALF.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
25. TALF -- LOAN TERMS AND
STRUCTURE
• Non-recourse loans
• 3-yr term
• Not subject to mark-to-
market or re-margining
requirements.
• pre-payable (in whole or
in part)
• No substitution of
collateral
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
26. TALF: RAY OF HOPE ON
TOXIC ASSETS
To start the process, banks will
•
identify to the FDIC the
assets, typically a pool of
loans, that they wish to sell.
Assets eligible for purchase will be
•
determined by the participating
banks, including primary
regulators– FDIC & Treasury.
FDIC retains contractors to analyze
•
loan pools and determine the level
of debt to be issued by the PPIF
that it is willing to guarantee.
$10MM -- min. loan amt
•
NY Fed assesses admin fee = 5 bps
•
of loan amt
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
27. TALF‟S ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL
• ABS with AAA ratings
• Eligible small business loan of ABS.
• ABS cleared through Depository Trust Company.
• Substantially all credit exposure exposed to U.S.-
domiciled obligors.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans &
Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
28. ELIGIBLE COLLATERAL CONT.-
Underlying credit exposures of eligible ABS must be:
(1) auto loans,
(2) student loans,
(3) credit card loans,
(4) equipment loans,
(5) floor-plan loans,
(6) small business loans fully guaranteed by the U.S.
SBA, or
(7) receivables related to residential mortgage
servicing advances (servicing advance receivables).
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
29. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
30. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
31. Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
32. TIME FOR A MARKET
STABILITY REGULATOR
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
33. Addressing The First Component of
Regulatory Reform: Systemic Risk
• A Single Independent Regulator With Responsibility Over
Systemically Important Firms and Critical Payment and
Settlement Systems
• Higher Standards on Capital and Risk Management for
Systemically Important Firms
• Registration of All Hedge Fund Advisers With Assets Under
Management Above a Moderate Threshold
• A Comprehensive Framework of Oversight, Protections and
Disclosure for the OTC Derivatives Market
• New Requirements for Money Market Funds to Reduce the
Risk of Rapid Withdrawals
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
34. Doing Deals Today & Devising Your Business
Strategy For The Next 12 Months
Moderator:
•
• A Borrowers' Perspective Norman Radow, President, The
Among the questions to be discussed:
–
RADCO Companies
Who are you borrowing from?
–
Panelists:
•
What Real Estate are you investing in?
–
How did you get Lenders interested in
Michael F.
–
•
your deal?
Severson, VP, A&D, Bixby Land
What terms and pricing are you seeing?
–
Co
What do you want to see that will
–
realistically increase returns?
Scott L. Podvin, Managing
•
Where do you see terms/pricing going in
–
Director, The Crest at
the next year? Mezzanine or equity:
Waterford Lakes
Which is easier?
What are the key issues and barriers for
Bob
–
•
prospective Borrowers at this time?
Sonnenblick, CEO, Sonnenblick
What are your business plans for the
–
Del Rio
next 12 months?
How does this compare to the last 12
–
Christopher
•
months?
Bley, Principal, Turnkey Group
What deals are you actively seeking?
–
35. NOW IS THE TIME
TO RAISE A FUND
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
36. VULTURES CIRCLING –
EYEING THEIR PREY
• In 2008, $87Bn was • Benson Elliot
raised by 87 Real Estate
opportunistic or debt and Partners III, a
distressed debt focused pan-European
funds. distressed real
estate fund. The
• Of the $87Bn, U.S.
fund managed to
accounted for $47Bn and
raise around €510
Europe for $15.8Bn
million, officials
• $56.25Bn raised in 2006 at the firm said.
• $73.75Bn raised in 2007
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate
Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
37. FUND RAISING TIME
• Invista, w/ £8.7Bn of AUM, launched
distressed property fund
• MGPA, owned in part by Australia‟s
Macquarie Bank, secured $3.9Bn in
equity, giving it $15.6Bn of potential
buying power.
• MGPA committed $2.2Bn to investments
in:
– Singapore, - Japan,
– China and -Thailand.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
38. OTHERS ARE WAITING
ON THE SIDELINES
COMPELLING STORY
Consider explosive growth of RE-oriented private equity:
Apollo
•
Blackstone
•
Colony Capital
•
Carlyle Group
•
Ramius
•
Bain Capital
•
SAC Capital
•
Recent Deals
•
London Opportunity Fund
•
Stamford‟s Opportunity Fund
•
Source: Kingsley Associates and Institutional Real Estate, Inc
–
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
39. REITS RAISING MONEY TOO:
DON‟T BE THE LAST ONE TO THE PARTY
• 2 BIG DEALS
1. Simon Property Group, Inc. (“SPG”) announces:
1. closed equity and debt offerings.
2. underwriters of the equity offering exercised their over-
allotment option in full.
3. Sold 17,250,000 shares of common stock at $31.50 per
share.
4. SPG‟s operating partnership completed its offering of $650
million aggregate principal amount of its 10.35% senior
unsecured notes due 2019.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
40. DEALMAKERS
2.AMB Property Corp. (AMB) priced 41.25 million
shares, with an option to purchase up to 6.1
million, at $12.15 per share. Proposed closing date
is May 30th.
• Both Simon and AMB are selling equity at heavily
depressed prices – AMB is trading near 8-year lows
and SPG near 10-year lows.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
41. WHO IS SELLING
SWFs
•
HEDGE & OPPORTUNITY FUNDS
•
REITS
•
PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS
•
PENSION FUNDS
•
ENDOWMENTS
•
SPECIAL SERVICERS/MASTER
•
SERVICERS
• REAL ESTATE COMPANIES
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
42. SIZE OF SWFS
-AUM of SWFs reaches $3.8Tr
-Add‟l $5.5Tr in other sovereign
investment vehicles
-$6.1Tr official foreign
exchange reserves.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
43. SUPER SEVEN SWF FUNDS:
1. Abu Dhabi Invest Authority ($875 Bn);
2. Gov‟t Pension Fund Norway ($350Bn);
3. Singapore Investment Corp. ($330 Bn);
4. Kuwait Investment Authority ($250 Bn);
5. China Investment Corp. ($200 Bn);
6. Singapore's Temasek Holdings ($159.2
Bn); and
7. Stabilisation Fund of the Russian Fed.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
44. HEDGE FUND CENTRAL
2008 2007
200 hedge funds hold assets worth 350 hedge funds held asssets
• •
more than $1Bn worth moreh than $1Bn
22,350 distinct investment vehicles 22,640 distinct investment vehicles
• •
– 15,150 single manager hedge – 15,250 single manager hedges
funds – 7,400 funds of hedge funds
– 7,200 funds of hedge funds Total assets $1,760Bn
•
Total assets $1,330Bn
•
Per Trac Financial Solutions
•
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
45. HEDGE FUND LIQUIDATIONS
• Industry Managed approx. $2.5T
• No. of hedge funds managing more
than $1Bn fell by more than 40%
• 1,471 funds, or roughly 15% of the
hedge fund industry, were liquidated
• More than 775 funds closed in the
final quarter of 2008
Per Trac Financial Solutions
•
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate
Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
46. THE GREAT LIQUIDATION
• $200Bn to be
withdrawn in 2009
• $155Bn was taken
out in 2008
• This cycle will likely
see more liquidations
than in the last three
combined, said
Steven Smith, global
head of leveraged
finance at UBS in NY.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
47. WHO IS LIQUIDATING
Drake Management,
•
Centaurus Capital,
•
London Diversified Fund Management
•
Basso Capital,
•
Ferox Capital Management
•
Norwich Union‟s £2.8Bn unit-linked vehicle
•
forced to close
• The Man Group, the world‟s largest publicly
traded hedge fund manager, said net
outflows by institutions were about $4.2Bn
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
48. HARD TIMES HIT HEDGES
• Fortress Investment Group places
restrictions on redemptions.
• Blackstone
• Och-Ziff Capital Management
• Cerberus and
• Citadel are facing tougher times, as
well.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
49. WHO IS GROWING THEIR ARMY
• Highbridge Capital Management, once
the world‟s biggest hedge fund, had a
$1Bn of net inflows this
year, including $225MM from
JPMorgan –ends qtr with $20Bn AUM
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
50. TARGET PRACTICE
HIT THE HEDGE
Funds without independent admins
1) ESL Investments, run by
Eddie Lampert
2) Renaissance
Technologies, run by
billionaire Jim Simons
3) Chicago Citadel, run by Ken
Griffin
4) SAC CAPITAL, run by
billionaire Steven Cohen
5) Cerberus
6) HBK Capital, Dallas, Tx
7) Caxton Associates, run by
billionaire Bruce Kovner
These are the targets!!!
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
51. BOOM IN SECONDARY MARKET
FOR HEDGE FUNDS
100s of funds freeze withdrawals
•
Investors need cash
•
Investors offer stakes at deep discounts
•
PERMAL, hedge fund specialist w/ €25Bn
•
AUM, ready to snap up secondhand stakes
at a discount
• HFX Capital Mngmnt and VEGA Asset
Mngmnt raising $1Bn fund to purchase
secondary stakes in hedges
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
52. CDS CLEANING SERVICE
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate
Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
53. MASSIVE SALES
1.RBS Hires Ubs To Sell £500mm Of Invstmnts In
•
Private Equity Funds
2.$134bn Of Private Equity Assets On The Balance
Sheet 5 Of 6 Big Money Banks And Aig
3.AIG selling Tokyo landmark near Imperial Palace.
4.GE is a seller
5.Japanese companies start selling properties to
meet financing needs, says Eiji
Sakaguchi, head of real estate banking at
Morgan Stanley in Japan
Source: super return conference Berlin, Germany
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans &
Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
54. Private Equity Fund Diagram
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans &
Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
55. MATURING & ROBUST 2DRY MARKET
FOR SELLERS OF PRIVATE EQUITY ASSETS
• Types of Secondary
Transactions
2.1
Sale of Limited
Partnership
Interests
2.2
Sale of Direct
Interests
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate
Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
56. FOUR POCKETS OF DEMAND
1.Opportunity Funds that have been established to
buy real estate equity
2.Newer Opp. Funds that have been created as
dedicated debt investors
3.Private Equity looking at real estate debt
4.Real Estate Companies buy back their own debt or
debt of others
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate
Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
57. REITS UNLOAD
• REITS among 1st to sell • Hotel Reits – down 38%
properties • Retail REITs down 39%
• Dow Jones Equity ALL REIT • Health Care REITS down
Total Return Index, which 28%
tracks 113 stocks, posted a • Self Storage REITs down
negative total return of 32%
32% in first quarter of
2009.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
58. BLUE HORESHOE
LOVES DISTRESS
• Consider the dramatic tilt in institutional
investors‟ (2007) allocations:
– $44.5 billion targeted to domestic real
estate
– $36.3 billion to private real estate
• $24.7 billion to non-core (i.e., value-
added and opportunistic),
• $11.6 billion to core (i.e., stabilized
apartment, industrial, office & retail)
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
59. PODVIN DEVELOPMENT GROUP
RAISING $$100MM FUND TO
PURCHASE REAL ESTATE, DISTRESSED/OPPORTUNISTIC
ASSETS
THIS FUND SHALL FOCUS ON PURCHASING THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF ASSETS/DEBT:
Strategically located developments, located in the centre of a city,
being large-scale and multi-phase developments typically consisting
City-Core
of residential, hospitality, office, retail, entertainment and cultural
Development
properties with a blend of historic restoration and modern
Projects
architecture.
Large-scale multi-family residential communities in secondary and
tertiary markets located on main and main where we can implement a
Integrated
capital improvement program to push the rents. We will be prepared to
Residential
purchase asset/debt on an all cash basis, but once the community has
Development
Projects been stabilized, we shall lever it or dispose of the asset, triggering a
repayment event.
There will be tremendous opportunities in busted condos and conversions
Broken Condos &
while value add plays will also be easy to find. Likewise, there will be many
Conversions or
Partially projects with incomplete construction that we will be able to pick up on the
Constructed cheap, complete construction and reposition the asset to create a vibrant
Communities working, walkable (with bike paths and all), sustainable and living community
for working class people.
WE ARE NOW RAISING A Scott L. Podvin: IMN‟s 6th Annual Western
Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate
$100,000,000 FUND TO Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt
PURCHASE DISTRESSED April 27-28, 2009
60. INVESTORS
1. Institutional Investors
Investors
2. Pension funds
Our Preferred
3. Insurance companies
Shares pay
4. Endowments
cumulative
5. Investment Banks
preferential cash
6. Commercial Banks
distributions at an
7. Fund of funds
annual rate of 9%.
8. Hedge Funds
9. High net worth individuals
10. Family offices
11. Sovereign wealth funds
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate
Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
61. WHAT WE DO
• We identify real
estate
opportunities
that generate
superior risk-
adjusted returns
while ensuring
capital
preservation.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
62. CORE BUSINESS FOCUS
1. Identification;
2. Acquisition;
3. Ownership; and
4. Operation of multi-family residential
and hospitality real estate properties.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans &
Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
63. TYPES OF INVESTMENT
WE MAKE THE FOLLOWING TYPES OF
DEAL SIZE
INVESTMENTS:
• The ideal deal size will
• single assets and
start at US$2-25MM,
portfolios;
with a minimum equity
• development or
investment of US$5
redevelopment
million.
projects;
• We have capacity for
• real estate operating
large transactions as a
platforms; and
result of co-investment
• structured loans and and partnerships with
partnerships. our broad institutional
client base.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
64. Investment Objectives
(1)acquire neglected multi-family residential
&/or hospitality properties; and
(2) increase profitability thru:
(a) providing superior property
management,
(b) improving appearance & environment;
(c) implementing renovation strategies;
and,
(d) cross-selling ancillary services
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
65. INVESTMENT APPROACH
Conduct thorough and comprehensive research
•
Perform ongoing review
•
Commit to strong on-the-ground presence
•
Add value by applying focused leasing & expense
•
reduction strategy
Undertake development or redevelopment plans
•
Create a tailored plan for each investment
•
Identify key milestones and profit drivers to
•
achieve the targeted result.
Capital and financial structuring.
•
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
66. OUR PHILOSOPHY
• DO THE RIGHT THING: Our core ethos is to quot;do the
right thing” -- responsible investment.
• ALIGNING INTERESTS: To deliver results, we
strategically structure the organization and employment
compensation plans.
• PARTNERING: Working together (within our business
and with clients & service providers), we achieve far more
than on our own.
• DELIVERING INVESTMENT EXCELLENCE:
delivering investment excellence lies at the heart of
building client confidence.
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
67. OUR STRATEGY
• Attract and retain investors;
• Continuous research and innovation;
• Deliver stable platform for growth;
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
68. REAL ESTATE
FUNDS – THE
ANATOMY OF THE
DEAL
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers
& Investors Forum on Real Estate
Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dv
in
69. What to Look for in a
REAL ESTATE FUND
Experience
•
Skills
•
Contacts
•
Practical problem solving
•
Reputation
•
Team
•
Capacity
•
$$ Balance Sheet $$
•
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real
Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
70. THE CHEMISTRY COUNTS
Alignment of Interests:
FUND & REAL ESTATE COMPANY
• Fund Objectives
• Fund Life
• Leverage and Financing
• Guarantees
• Management Style and Control
• Tax Considerations
• Dealing with Unexpected Issues
Scott L. Podvin:
IMN‟s 6th Annual Western Borrowers & Investors Forum on Real Estate
Mezzanine Loans & Distressed Real Estate Debt -- April 27-28, 2009
spodvin@post.harvard.edu
http://www.linkedin.com/in/sp0dvin
71. ABOUT US
• PDG is an independently managed private equity real estate
investment advisory company focused on real estate investment in
the U.S., Europe and Asia.
• Our managed investments include development and redevelopment
projects, joint-ventures and real estate operating companies in the
office, retail, industrial, residential and hotel sectors.
• We combine local knowledge of our real estate professionals with
broad global perspectives to develop our strategies and identify
investment opportunities.
• Our team of real estate professionals come from diverse
backgrounds, with the full range of skills required to invest in and
manage real estate and advise real estate funds. Our specialists
apply their skills to ensure that we drive every one of our investments
to perform at its optimum.
• PDG is independent of any broader financial services group. We can
invest funds on behalf of a number of different
organizations, including pension funds, insurance
companies, government entities and financial institutions, as well as
charities and endowments.
72. • Scott L. Podvin, Managing Director of
The Crest at Waterford Lakes, LLC
• www.TheCrestLife.com
• spodvin@post.harvard.edu
• Cell: (305) 793-5762
• Fax: (305) 665-3971