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20120209 aqp h1 2012 presentation final
1. Interim Results
For the six months
ended 31 December 2011
Stuart Murray
9 February 2012
2. Disclaimer
Certain forward looking statements may be contained in the presentation which include, without
limitation, expectations regarding metal prices, estimates of production, operating expenditure,
capital expenditure and projections regarding the completion of capital projects as well as the
financial position of the company. Such statements are only predictions and are subject to inherent
risks and uncertainties which could cause actual values, results, performance or achievements to
differ materially from those expressed, implied or projected in any forward looking statements as a
result of, among other factors, changes in economic and market conditions, changes in the
regulatory environment and other business and operational risks.
No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Aquarius that the material contained
in this presentation will be achieved or prove to be correct. Except for statutory liability which
cannot be excluded, each of Aquarius, its officers, employees and advisers expressly disclaims any
responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the material contained in this presentation and
excludes all liability whatsoever (including in negligence) for any loss or damage which may be
suffered by any person as a consequence of any information in this presentation or any error or
omission there from. Aquarius accepts no responsibility to update any person regarding any
inaccuracy, omission or change in information in this presentation or any other information made
available to a person nor any obligation to furnish the person with any further information.
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 2
3. Financial Highlights
(Six months to 31 December 2011)
• Revenue decreased by 25% to US$252.4 million; volumes, prices, sales adjustments
• Mine EBITDA decreased by 69% to US$29.0 million; lower revenues, higher costs
• Reported net income impacted by US$91.2 million non-cash foreign exchange loss
• Arising substantially from the revaluation of intercompany loans within the Group
• Resulting in:
• Net loss of US$113.5 million
• Loss per share of 24.31 US cents
• Group cash balance at half-year end of $230.1 million
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 3
4. Operational Highlights
(Six months to 31 December 2011)
• Group attributable production decreased by 14% to 215,453 PGM ounces
• US Dollar PGM prices stable over period, but weakened during Q2
• Due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions
• Resulting in negative sales adjustments and return of pipeline advances
• The Rand weakened by 7% on average against the US Dollar
• Stable average US Dollar PGM Basket Price, while average Rand Basket Price increased by 5%
• Production in SA down due to (industry-wide) increase in ‘Section 54’ safety stoppages
• Production at P&SAs further impeded by implementation issues relating to new support installation
• Everest suffered a two week strike and ongoing poor industrial relations
• Ground conditions remain an issue
• On-mine unit cash costs in SA rose by 35% in Rand terms, largely due to lower production
• Mimosa performed strongly again, continuing to produce at capacity
• Operations at Blue Ridge remained suspended for the entire six month period
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 4
5. Production – Impact Analysis by Operation
4E oz production variance y-o-y
260,000 250,972
240,000 Strong Increased
performance ownership
220,000 215,453
New support installation,
200,000 section 54s
Strike, poor
ground
Operations
conditions,
suspended
section 54s
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
H1 2011 Kroondal Marikana Everest Blue Ridge Mimosa CTRP Platinum Mile H1 2012
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 5
6. Production Profile
SA issues take toll
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
-
Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11
Everest Blue Ridge Platinum Mile CTRP Mimosa Marikana Kroondal
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 6
7. Dollar Pricing
Volatile and falling
Pt, Ru & Au ($/oz) Pd ($/oz)
900
2,400
850
2,200 800
750
2,000
700
1,800
650
1,600 600
550
1,400
500
1,200
450
1,000 400
Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Dec 11
Platinum Gold Rhodium Palladium
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 7
8. US Dollar Basket Prices
Stable period-on-period average prices (but negative price adjustments in Q2)
SOUTH AFRICA ZIMBABWE
(0%)
14%
1,378 1,373 1,338
1,173
H1 '11 H1 '12 H1 '11 H1 '12
By-products Ir/Ru Ni/Cu Cr2O3 Ir/Ru Ni/Cu/Co
10% 7%
29% 38%
Primary products
60% 51%
South Africa Zimbabwe
Platinum Palladium Rhodium Gold
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 8
9. Rand exchange rate
Finally some currency relief ……. but temporary………
R/$
8.50
8.00
7.50
7.00
6.50
Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Dec 11
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 9
10. Rand revenues falling despite exchange rate
ZAR and US$ SA Baskets and ZAR/US$ rebased to 100
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan 11 Mar 11 May 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Nov 11
SA 4E Basket Price ($) SA 4E Basket Price (R) Rand
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 10
11. Price volatility hampers investment decisions
ZAR and SA and ZIM US$ Baskets
$/oz R/oz
1,750 12,000
1,650 11,500
1,550
11,000
1,450
10,500
1,350
10,000
1,250
1,150 9,500
1,050 9,000
Jan 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Dec 11
SA $ Basket Zim $ Basket SA R Basket
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 11
12. Kroondal
(P&SA1 - AQP 50%)
H1 '12 175,704
Production (4E oz) (24%)
H1 '11 230,019
H1 '12 1,409
Revenue (Rm)
H1 '11
(32%)
2,056
H1 '12 8,459
Cash Costs (R/oz) 47%
H1 '11 5,757
H1 '12 7.9 (79%)
Mine EBITDA ($m)1
H1 '11 37.6
H1 '12 -6%
Cash Margin (%) (116%)
H1 '11 36%
H1 '12 1,346
Capex (R/oz)2 99%
H1 '11 678
• Kroondal produced below capacity during H1 2012
• Partly due to manual installation of new hangingwall support, leading to delays in the blasting cycle
• Now largely resolved - phased approach and locally-made rock drills for hangingwall support installation
• Exacerbated by unsatisfactory contractor arrangements – exaggerates fixed costs to detriment of unit costs
• Renegotiating contractor arrangements
• Only remaining threat to production is industry-wide increase in ‘section 54’ stoppages
• Dialogue ongoing with Inspectorate of Mines regarding this situation
1 Mine EBITDA is attributable, i.e. 50% of total. All other numbers are on a 100% basis
2 Capex figures are total capex, i.e. both stay-in-business and expansion capex included
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 12
13. Cash cost analysis – an example
Kroondal – increases in costs by category
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
Reversible
4,000
3,000
FY11 - H1 Volume Grade Recoveries Mining Processing Utilities Admin FY12 - H1
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 13
14. Marikana
(P&SA1 - AQP 50%)
H1 '12 54,802
Production (4E oz) (10%)
H1 '11 60,587
H1 '12 451
Revenue (Rm)
H1 '11
(20%)
561
H1 '12 9,800
Cash Costs (R/oz) 22%
H1 '11 8,026
H1 '12 -2.3 (244%)
Mine EBITDA ($m)1
H1 '11 1.6
H1 '12 -19%
Cash Margin (%) (244%)
H1 '11 13%
H1 '12 1,557
Capex (R/oz)2 (0%)
H1 '11 1,561
• Marikana also produced below capacity during H1 2012, and ramp-up slowed
• Largely due to the same issues faced by Kroondal
• Same mitigants now in place
• As with Kroondal, only remaining threat to production is industry-wide increase in ‘section 54’ stoppages
• Dialogue ongoing with Inspectorate of Mines regarding this situation
• Two shafts at Marikana are in ramp-up, and as such are uneconomic at current prices
1 Mine EBITDA is attributable, i.e. 50% of total. All other numbers are on a 100% basis
2 Capex figures are total capex, i.e. both stay-in-business and expansion capex included
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 14
15. Everest
(AQP 100%)
H1 '12 41,787
Production (4E oz) (8%)
H1 '11 45,561
H1 '12 353
Revenue (Rm)
H1 '11
(23%)
457
H1 '12 10,311
Cash Costs (R/oz) 31%
H1 '11 7,879
H1 '12 -8.3 (172%)
Mine EBITDA ($m)
H1 '11 11.6
H1 '12 -22%
Cash Margin (%) (202%)
H1 '11 21%
H1 '12 1,501
Capex (R/oz)1 (50%)
H1 '11 2,975
• Ramp-up slowed by thicker-than-anticipated oxide zone first encountered in Q4 ‘11
• Everest now being optimised to produce at a lower level for the next 12-18 months
• While shallower mining, poor ground conditions and challenging economic environment persist
• While Hoogland open pit mining authorisation and s102 consent for Booysendal South remain outstanding
• Additional negative impacts on production caused by:
• Section 54 stoppages and maintenance problems in Q1 ‘12 – 36 shifts lost
• Dispute between union and contractor in Q2 ‘12 – two and a half weeks lost to resulting strike
• Contractor and industrial relations issues are temporary and are being resolved
1 Capex figures are total capex, i.e. both stay-in-business and expansion capex included
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 15
16. Mimosa
(AQP 50%)
H1 '12 104,254
Production (4E oz) 3%
H1 '11 101,156
H1 '12 146
Revenue (Rm)
H1 '11
1%
145
H1 '12 726
Cash Costs (R/oz) 18%
H1 '11 623
H1 '12 (16%) 34.3
Mine EBITDA ($m)1
H1 '11 40.6
H1 '12 52%
Cash Margin (%) (7%)
H1 '11 56%
H1 '12 315
Capex (R/oz)2 7%
H1 '11 295
• Mimosa continues to produce at or above capacity, and cost control initiatives have contained cost increases
• Political and regulatory issues intensifying
• Royalties on gold and PGMs doubled – now highest globally
• Ground rents increased by 50,000% from January 2012 - now material cost
• Community Trust formed, to form indivisible part of full indigenisation solution
• Negotiations with Zimbabwe government relating to Indigenisation Plan continues
• Electricity supply interruptions increasing significantly
1 Mine EBITDA is attributable, i.e. 50% of total. All other numbers are on a 100% basis
2 Capex figures are total capex, i.e. both stay-in-business and expansion capex included
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 16
17. Tailings Operations
CTRP (AQP 50%) Platinum Mile (AQP 100%1)
• Production of 1,769 PGM ounces; • Production of 6,415 PGM ounces,
885 PGM ounces attributable to Aquarius 5,402 attributable to Aquarius1
• Plant EBITDA of ($0.8m) loss • Plant EBITDA of ($0.2m) loss
• Cash margin for the period of (168%), • Cash margin for the period of 16%,
down from 20% in H1 ‘11 down from 31% in H1 ‘11
• Unit costs were up 128% at R13,087 per • Unit costs were up 23% at R7,019 per
PGM ounce PGM ounce
• Plant modifications and upgrades were • Volumes, grades and recoveries remained fairly
completed in the second quarter of FY ‘12 and constant year-on-year
throughput and recoveries showed a steady
increase in the final months of the period under • Lower basket prices impacted negatively on
review cash margins but the operation is running
profitably
• It is expected that the operation will again
operate profitably from the third quarter of • Feasibility study to evaluate the viability of
FY2012 onwards pumping Kroondal tailings to be treated at the
operation has commenced
1 AQP now indirectly owns 91.7% of Platinum Mile, and as a result it was consolidated in the AQP accounts from September 2011
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 17
18. Contribution
By operation
H1 ‘12 attributable production:
H1 ‘12 Mine EBITDA: US$29.0m 215,453 PGM ounces
Tailings 3%
45
40
35
30 Mimosa 24%
Kroondal 41%
25
20
15 Everest 19%
10
Marikana
5
13%
0
Mimosa Kroondal Everest Marikana Tailings Total
• Mine EBITDA = Revenue - Interest Income - Cash Costs + FX Gain (Loss) on Sales
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 18
19. P&L analysis and breakdown
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Revenue 252.4 336.2 (83.8)
Cost of sales (273.0) (241.3) (31.7)
Administrative costs (7.4) (8.1) 0.7
Financing costs (17.6) (15.4) (2.2)
Foreign exchange (loss)/gain (91.3) 66.2 (157.5)
Settlement of contractor dispute - (7.8) 7.8
Other 1.1 0.3 0.8
Income tax benefit/(expense) 22.2 (35.8) 58.0
Net (loss)/profit after tax (113.5) 94.3 (207.8)
Headline (Loss)/Earnings (113.8) 94.2 (208.0)
Mine EBITDA 29.0 93.1 (64.1)
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 19
20. P&L analysis and breakdown
Revenue
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Revenue from concentrate sales 273.5 311.8 (38.3)
PGM sales adjustments (24.7) 16.5 (41.2)
Interest income 3.6 7.8 (4.2)
Revenue 252.4 336.2 (83.8)
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 20
21. P&L analysis and breakdown
Cost of Sales
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Amortisation & depreciation 31.5 22.1 (9.4)
Fair Value Uplift 4.9 5.7 0.8
Cost of production 233.3 210.9 (22.4)
Royalties: Zimbabwe (attributable 50%) 3.2 2.6 (0.6)
Royalties: SA Commercial * 0.1 - (0.1)
Total cost of sales 273.0 241.3 (31.7)
* MPRDA royalties (SA) included in taxation
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 21
22. P&L analysis and breakdown
Financing Costs
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Interest paid on borrowings (coupon on convert, etc) 9.5 7.1 2.4
Accretion of interest on convertible bond 5.0 4.8 0.2
Accretion of mine-site rehab liability
(unwinding of AQPSA’s provision) 2.6 3.1 (0.5)
Pipeline finance 0.5 0.4 (0.1)
Financing costs 17.6 15.4 2.2
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 22
23. P&L analysis and breakdown
Foreign Exchange ($m)
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
-120
Non cash
Cash
-140
FX loss on AQP FX loss on cash FX loss on pipeline FX loss - other FX gain on sales Total FX loss
Group loans assets
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 23
24. P&L analysis and breakdown
Income Tax Expense
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
South African Corporate tax (credit) – income tax 1.0 (0.8) 1.8
South African Corporate tax (credit) – MPRDA royalty (0.6) 2.4 (3.0)
Zimbabwe Corporate tax 7.0 8.8 (1.8)
Movement in Zimbabwe deferred tax 3.1 3.0 0.1
Movement in South African deferred tax (incl. Ridge) (32.7) 22.4 (55.1)
Income tax expense/(credit) (22.2) 35.8 (58.0)
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 24
25. Balance sheet analysis and breakdown
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Total non-current assets 886.8 1,009.5 (122.7)
Total current assets 370.4 546.4 (176.0)
Total assets 1,257.3 1,555.9 (298.6)
Total non-current liabilities 442.6 500.6 (58.0)
Total current liabilities 105.6 110.0 (4.4)
Total liabilities 548.2 610.2 (62.0)
Net assets 709.0 945.7 (236.7)
Shareholders equity 709.0 945.7 (236.7)
Non-current assets – Cash & cash equivalents – Non-current liabilities –
decrease due to impairment decrease in cash balance decrease due to $52m
of Ridge assets, foreign resulting from investing decrease in deferred tax
exchange movements and activities and dividends paid liability, $19m decrease in
amortisation charged
mine closure rehab provision,
offset by $13m increase in
finance leases
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 25
26. Cash flow statement analysis and breakdown
($m) 31-Dec-11 31-Dec-10 Change
Net operating cash flow 24.9 53.6 (28.7)
Net investing cash flow (69.2) (59.4) (9.8)
Net financing cash flow (34.3) (32.3) (2.0)
Net operating cash flow includes: Net investing cash flow includes: Net financing cash flow includes:
• Net inflow from operations • Payments for mine development • Interest paid of $9m
of $27m and property, plant and equipment
• Dividends paid of $19m
of $42m
• Income tax paid of $7m
• Acquisition of Platinum Mile
Resources of $12m
• Deposit for Booysendal mineral
acquisition of $15m
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 26
27. Outlook
• Supply
• supply is constrained as cost, capital and regulatory pressures are mounting
• overproduction relative to fundamental demand since GFC remains
• but limited supply-side response possible to any increase in demand
• Demand
• light vehicle manufacturing still recovering in US and Japan, slowing in Europe
• shifting to Asian focus
• heavy duty vehicle market is growing Fundamentals are good –
• Tighter regulation but all bets are off until
macroeconomic certainty returns
• more vehicles, new countries
• Aquarius
• overcome challenges relating to new safety support methodologies
• fixing problems with contractors
• focus on efficiency and cash conservation until environment improves
• No interim dividend declared
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012 27
28. For more information please contact:
• Gavin Mackay
• Tel: +44 (0) 7909 547 042
• Email: gavin.mackay@aquariusplatinum.com
Interim Results for the six months ended 31 December 2011 February 2012