Since the market tends to go in the opposite direction of what the majority of people think, I would say 95% of all these people you hear on TV shows are giving you their personal opinion. And personal opinions are almost always worthless … facts and markets are far more reliable.
In today’s environment, sound advice is more important than providing product solutions. We have seen unprecedented events occur in our economy and everyone is nervous about where they should place their money. Remember, there are great ways to earn interest in many products, securities or fixed. The important thing is to get the advice and research you need to make a decision that is right for your situation.
A bear market rally — or what we call a suckers’ rally — often appears during downturns as the market tries to get back on track. History tells us stocks don’t bottom out on a single day; it’s a lengthy process. And they also don’t recover along a smooth, upward trajectory.
1929 was a great example of sucker rallies that would crush your retirement account. Most American’s consider a recession at a 20% loss from it’s high point. The market fluctuates 5 – 10 % all the time without anyone noticing. The media starts to pay attention around the 20% mark which is when the overall concern hits mainstream America. Look at the first rally, you’ll notice a 47% increase. That was a pretty consistent increase for over 5 months. That’s plenty to have most retirees thinking “the worst is over”. In all reality, over this 3 year span, you would’ve seen some great gains. However, leaving your money in anything that even closely resembled the S&P would’ve have left you in a world of hurt.
The Wallstreet Journal phrased things very well by saying, “The stock market still has big hurdles to clear. You can have a jobless recovery, but you can't have a profitless recovery. Consider: Earnings are subpar, Treasury's last auction was a bust because of weak demand, the dollar is suspect, the stimulus is questionable at best, the latest budget projects a $1.84 trillion deficit, the administration is berating investment firms and hedge funds saying "I don't stand with them," California is dead broke, health care may be nationalized. . . Shall I go on?”
The point of this piece is to show clients that every time during a bear market, there is 2-5 spikes (sucker rallies) where the general population begins to think that the market has stopped crashing and is beginning the rally. How many have we seen this time? If you look at the chart, what is the shortest historical bear market? At best, we have been in the bear for a 12 months. Historically, would it make since that it is behind us? While there is good returns can be made in the market during bear times, is that what you want to try when you only get one chance at retirement?
The point of this piece is to show clients that every time during a bear market, there is 2-5 spikes (sucker rallies) where the general population begins to think that the market has stopped crashing and is beginning the rally. How many have we seen this time? If you look at the chart, what is the shortest historical bear market? At best, we have been in the bear for a 12 months. Historically, would it make since that it is behind us? While there is good returns can be made in the market during bear times, is that what you want to try when you only get one chance at retirement?
The point of this piece is to show clients that every time during a bear market, there is 2-5 spikes (sucker rallies) where the general population begins to think that the market has stopped crashing and is beginning the rally. How many have we seen this time? If you look at the chart, what is the shortest historical bear market? At best, we have been in the bear for a 12 months. Historically, would it make since that it is behind us? While there is good returns can be made in the market during bear times, is that what you want to try when you only get one chance at retirement?
By the time that Americans earned their dollar back after a depression, they find that the dollar can only buy half a loaf of bread. It has literally cut their money in half. This is the exact reason sitting on the sidelines in cash and money markets is dangerous. If your client didn’t see the crash coming, what makes them think they’ll see the rise coming?
What has the government been doing more than any other time in US history? That’s right, printing money. When we put more green paper in the streets, does that lower the value of a dollar or raise it? It lowers it. So if in the past depressions inflation doubled, what does that mean for our future?...Something to think about.
The survey found that a majority of affluent boomers are planning for a retirement far different than the one chosen by their parents. (Read Slide) Bottom line is, people are living longer these days and retirement has a different definition then it used to. If you ever want to read a great book, read Ken Dyctwald’s “Age Wave”. There is a great clip on his website talking about life cycles and how people used to live a “Linear Life” now with people living longer, they have a more “Cyclic Life”. Recovering from health conditions, failed businesses, and basically having a second life all over again. Money to Boomer’s isn’t about a percentage of assets but that is what most people think of when they plan for retirement. income is about maintaining a lifestyle and that lifestyle has a fixed number attached, not a percentage.
(Go through slide) Let’s look at this example. Both average a 6% return but you’ll notice, we didn’t have to average 6%, we had to make 6%.
Notice that the level of average returns over any particular 20-year period is no guarantee of success. The real key is to get off to a good start, which is what separates 1974 from its neighbors. For this example the Flaw of Averages states that: If you assume each year's growth at least equal, there is no chance of running out of money. But if the growth fluctuates each year but averages the same, you are likely to run out of money.