Opening speech at Efsec-fse 2007

1. Pervasive Computing and the Grid:
the birth of a computational Exoskeleton
Dubrovnik, 3-7 September 2007
Roberto Siagri
Eurotech Spa
President & CEO
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07

2. Communication Overcomes Computing
The framework is changing now.
The Internet is redefining software.
The Internet is redefining the role of
computing and communication ………
I still don’t understand the framework.
I don’t think any of us really do. Andy Grove
former INTEL CEO
But some aspects of it are pretty clear.
It’s proven not to be computing based
but communication based.
ESEC/FSE from : “Decisions Don’t Wait”,
Dubrovnik ‘07 2
Harvard Management Update. 2003

3. Technological “Cephalization” of the Earth
"No one can deny that
a network (a world network) of
economic and psychic affiliations is
being woven at ever increasing
speed which envelops and
constantly penetrates more deeply
within each of us.
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin
(1881-1955)
With every day that passes it Jesuit Priest,
Transhumanist,
becomes a little more impossible for Developmental Systems Theorist
us to act or think otherwise than
collectively."
ESEC/FSE Le Phénomène Humain, 1955
Dubrovnik ‘07 3

4. The
is your
Trend
Friend
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 4

5. Meta-Trends in Technological Acceleration
Moore's Law Miniaturization
Processing, Storage, ...
Price/Performance 2X over 12-18 months
Metcalf's Law Interconnection
Value of a network increases with the square of the number
of connections (or according to the Zips law is less then the square)
Gilder's Law Quantization
Bandwidth increases 3X every 36 months
Negroponte's Law Digitization
Superiority of "bits over atoms"
Profound impact felt in "Knowledge Economy" where
ideas are ultimate raw material
ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart
Dubrovnik ‘07 5
"Acceleration Studies Foundation"

6. according to Gordon Bell
“Everything will be in Cyberspace ….
…and covered by a hierarchy
of computers! ”
Smart Dust
Body
Continent Home
Region Car
Building
Campus
World
Fractal (scale-free) Cyberspace:
a network of … networks of …
platforms
ESEC/FSE Adapted from the original
Dubrovnik ‘07 6 by Gordon Bell 1998

7. Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps)
Pierre Teilhard de Chardin Finite Sphericity + Acceleration =
Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 Phase Transition
Geosphere/Geogenesis
(Chemical Substrate)
Biosphere/Biogenesis
(Biological-Genetic Substrate)
Noosphere/Noogenesis
(Memetic-Technologic Substrate)
The noosphere is a "planetary thinking network"
an interlinked system of consciousness and information,
a global net of self-awareness, instantaneous feedback
and planetary communication
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 7

8. Less
is
ESEC/FSE
More
Dubrovnik ‘07 8

9. "Ephemeralization“ i.e. Less is More
Malthus was wrong. He forgot a factor:
our continual ability to do more and more with less and less.
"Ephemeralization"
America telephoned Europe:
- Not long ago
via 175,000 tons of transatlantic copper cables.
- Now
R. Buckminster Fuller
a single 1/4-ton communications satellite 1895 - 1983
does the job better, faster, more clearly, inventor, architect,
with more bandwidth and a fraction of the energy. engineer, mathematician,
poet and cosmologist.
Transistors are an example of doing almost anything
with practically nothing,
…. because of the software!
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07

10. This trend has also been called
“virtualization,”
“weightlessness”
and
Matter, Energy, Space, Time
(MEST) compression,
efficiency, or density.
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 10

11. Miniaturization (MEST compression) :
the Engine of Innovation
“All progressions are from material to abstract…”
“The principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy
per each given level of functional performance”
R. Buckminster Fuller
Matter
Energy Information
Space
Time
The percentage of information in every new product or new service is
asymptotically moving to 100%.
The cost of information at every level is subject to a deflection of approx.
50% per year.
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 11

12. Saturation of Global Energy Use:
Energy Consumption Per Capita
Later developers,
using “advanced technologies”,
require far less time and energy
to reach equivalent GDP.
we keep on doing more and
more with less and less
ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart
Dubrovnik ‘07 12
"Acceleration Studies Foundation"

13. Euro / kilo
Gold is 15000 € Kg
• F22 Raptor 6500€ Kg Branded Notebook 1000€ Kg
• Fashion dress 5000€ Kg Ferrari Car 120€ Kg
• Branded Smart Phone 4500€ Kg Business car 30€ Kg
• Branded PDA 3500€ Kg Utility car 15€ Kg
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 13

14. MEST Compression:
a “Paradise of Resources” for Leading Edge Computation
Facts:
• Machines are more MEST efficient with each new generation.
• Global energy intensity (energy consumption per capita) has been
flat for almost three decades in the developed world.
• Weight of GDP per capita goes down in all developed Service
Economies.
Physics:
• Future computational technology requires little or no energy:
– Nanomolecular computing
– Quantum computing,
– Reversible logic,
– …etc. “More, Better, with Less.”
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 14

15. Computers: Future Opportunities from Nanosystems
Sugar cube sized computer (1 cm3) having 1015 MIPS(*)
Type Qty MIPS Total MIPS
Supercomputers 103 107 1010
Mainframes 105 105 1010
Workstations 106 104 1010
PCs 108 102 1010
Embedded Systems 1010 101 1011
Total 2x 1011
Fudge Factor x 50
Equivalent current computing power 1013
Roughly 100 times more powerful
than
all the computing power currently in existence
ESEC/FSE (*) Eric Drexler - Nanosystems
Dubrovnik ‘07 15

16. Plenty of Room at the Bottom
“… there is plenty of room to make them [computers] smaller.
There is nothing that I can see in the physical law that says the computer
elements cannot be made enormously smaller than they are now. …”
R. Feynman, 1959: Annual meeting of the American Physical Society
Non reversible logic in Classical Physics Theory
Assume a power dissipation of 1W and a volume of 1cm3
How many bits/second can be transferred?
1018 bit/sec
This is roughly the equivalent of 109 Pentiums!
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 16

17. Ultimate (zetta-wattaflop) Computing Machine
according to Seth Lloyd
Quantum Physics Theory
a 1-kg computer compressed to the black-hole limit
R= 2Gm/c2 ~ 10–27 m
can perform : 1051 ops/sec
on its 1016 bits,
and store about : 1031 bits.”
Modern parallel computers in a few years will achieve
1015 ops/sec
with a pace of Moore’s law: x2 every 1.5 years
technology needs~ 250 years to reach these limits
Seth Lloyd
ESEC/FSE “Ultimate physical limits to computation”
Dubrovnik ‘07 17 Nature, 2000

18. Value... Superiority of bits over atoms
Value
Bits
Atoms
Abundance
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 18

19. Cyberspace
Pervasive
Ubiquitous
&
Computing
Exoskeleton
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 19

20. Pervasive GRID:
A COMPUTATIONAL EXOSKELETON
Computers are becoming pervasive and ubiquitous
• Ubiquitous high bandwidth connection to the Internet at all times
• Massive computation available on demand through the GRID
• Tiny Computers embedded in
– the environment,
– our clothing,
– our body
• Augmented real reality
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 20

21. Humans vs. Technology (i.e.:Machines)
In the long run, we become seamless with our
machines.
No other credible long
term futures
have been proposed.
“Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.”
Brian Arthur, SFI
ESEC/FSE adapted from: John Smart
Dubrovnik ‘07 21
"Acceleration Studies Foundation"

22. Smart’s Laws of Technology
1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do.
2. Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers,
of technological evolutionary development.
3. The first generation of any technology is often
dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and
with luck the third becomes net humanizing.
ESEC/FSE from: John Smart
Dubrovnik ‘07 22 "Acceleration Studies Foundation"

23. Digital World : Natives vs. Immigrants
Digital Natives Digital Immigrants
HOMO ZAPPIENS HOMO SAPIENS
• twitch speed • conventional speed
• multi tasking • mono tasking
• non-linear approaches • linear approaches
• processing discontinued information • processing single information flows
• iconic skills • reading skills
• connected • stand alone
• collaborative • competitive
• active • passive
• learning by playing • separating learning and playing
• instant payoff • patience
• fantasy • reality
• technology as friend • technology as foe
courtesy: Mark Prensky
ESEC/FSE
source Wim Veen
Dubrovnik ‘07 23

24. Web 2.0
from user centric (Web 1.0) to human centric
• Users benefit from
– Collaboration
– Sharing
– Socialization
• Users are Prosumers and Consumers
Produce Consume
Contents Contents
Mashups Mashups
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 24

25. A simple definition of Web 2.0
Web 2.0 is the common
term used to refer to the
new generation of web
applications and
systems that enable
community
or
many-to-many
relationships.
reported by Kevin Evans on Off the Rails
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 25

26. M2M 2.0
Machines are producers and consumers
They do things that users can do, but better:
• generate XML, RSS, GeoRSS
• blog
• …
Web 2.0 unifies data from Machines
into a web platform
that is delivered to consumers
however they want through mashups
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 26

27. What is Pervasive Computing ?
It means to make data and application services available to any
authorized user anywhere, anytime, and on any device.
HPC clusters
QoS Network Appliances
Mobile Net-App
Mobile Computers
Wearable
Computer
Devices Networks of wireless
Body/Environmental Sensors
It means to create an environment where “everything” is a
computing node which communicates wirelessly and interacts
seamlessly with humans.
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 27

28. What is a Grid?
In the beginning ….
• persistent networked
environments integrating
geographically distributed
supercomputers, large
databases, and high end
instruments
NASA definition
ESEC/FSE The Grid,
Dubrovnik ‘07 28 ed. Ian Foster, Carl Kesselman, 1999

29. Now…..
combining Pervasive computing & the GRID
“ Grid computing and pervasive
computing are two visions of
the future that really do seem
to be upon us, and so surely
they must be investigated
together rather than in
isolation.”
ESEC/FSE De Roure, 2003
Dubrovnik ‘07 29

30. Pervasive + Grid
“Pervasive computing is the means by which the digital
world of the Grid couples into our physical world.”
TCP/IP
TCP/IP
Real World
Real World
(Sensors Nets &
(Sensors Nets &
Actuators)
Actuators)
HPCs
&
Clusters
Embedded &
Mobile PCs
“In other words, pervasive computing provides the manifestation
of the Grid in the physical world.”
ESEC/FSE
De Roure 2003
Dubrovnik ‘07 30

31. a Hierarchical PERVASIVE Computing GRID
“ Someday soon, more
than one million
businesses will be
connected to more
than one billion
people by one
trillion devices...”
ID
R
G
“...It's already
beginning to happen …
But we'll see even more
tremendous growth when
intelligence becomes embedded,
whenESEC/FSE
virtually everything Quote from:
becomes a computing device”.
Dubrovnik ‘07 31 L.V. Gerstner, former IBM CEO

32. PERVASIVE (Netcentric) HEALTH CARE SCENARIO
HPC
HPC
Clusters
Smart Sensors
Wearable Systems
Home Care
&
Mobile PC Assisted Living
Computers
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 32

33. Digital Technologies for a better World
“ The most profound technologies
are those that disappear. They
weave themselves into the fabric of
everyday life until they are
indistinguishable from it ”
Mark Weiser "The Computer for the 21st Century", Scientific American - 1991
Computer on board System on chip
System on board
Computer “mote”
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 33

34. What is Ubiquitous Computing ?
a Bio-Physical Extension
• Traditional computing has stretched the limitations
of the mind
• Pervasive and Ubiquitous computing is extending
the reach of both mind and body
• Ubiquitous computing “enhances” our senses
….but the underlying (GRID) hardware
infrastructure
cannot be perceived (“invisible”)
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 34

35. Human Centric vs Computer Centric
“ There is more information available
at our fingertips during a walk in the
woods than in any computer system,
yet
people find a walk among trees
relaxing and computers frustrating.
Machines that fit the human environment,
instead of forcing humans to enter theirs,
will make using a computer as refreshing
as taking a walk in the woods.”
Mark Weiser, 1991
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 35

36. ....now what’s about
new
designs
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 36

37. Ask the customers? ……….. Are you crazy?
“If you ask the public what they think
they will need, you will always be behind
in this world.
Akio Morita, You will never catch up
Sony founder
unless you think one to ten years in
advance
and create a market for the items you think
the public will accept at that time.”
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 37

38. The Developmental Spiral
• Homo Habilis Age 2,000,000 years
• Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 years
• Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age 40,000 years
• Agricultural Age 7,000 years
• Empires Age 2,500 years
• Scientific Age 380 years (1390-1770)
• Industrial Age 180 years (1770-1950)
• Information Age 70 years (1950-2020)
• Symbiotic Age 30 years (2020-2050)
• Autonomy Age 10 years (2050-2060)
• Tech Singularity ≈ 2060
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 38 source "Acceleration Studies Foundation"

39. The Symbiotic Age: a coevolution between
Humans and Technology
• A time when computers “speak our language.”
• A time when technologies are very responsive to our needs
and desires.
• A time when humans and
machines are intimately
connected, and always
improving each other.
• A time when we begin to feel “naked”
without our computer “clothes.”
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 39

40. while
Waiting
for the
Symbiotic
ESEC/FSE
Age
Dubrovnik ‘07 40

41. If time = money...
...then so does position .. & contest
POSITION & CONTEXT
AWARE
Systems Positioning is becoming (in economic terms)
as essential as communication networks
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 41

42. ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 42

43. Zypad a Wearable Info Appliance
• Unique technology
• Significant Competitive advantage
• High acceptance in the marketplace
• New class of value-added services provided to customers
Wrist worn wearable Computer
in Ambient intelligence
Main Features: Touch screen, GPS, WiFi, Bluetooth.
Optional functions: Zigbee or RFID reader.
Operating systems: Linux or Win CE.
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 43

44. a family of Wrist Wearable Computers
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 44

45. A WORLD of SMART Things
SOLO, a research project of a wearable smart thing.
A pendant-like device for personal affinity matching
and personal data management.
the NET
the NET
sealed box w/ contactless
power supply;
communication via ZigBee Harvesting and dissemination
(IEEE 802.4.15) of datatrips among users and
visual Comm. via RGB Led through the internet
ESEC/FSE ETHlab with the support of
Sw: P. L. Montessore et al., DIEGM UniUD
Dubrovnik ‘07 45 Hw.: A. Abramo et al. DIEGM UniUD

46. What’s about
Sw ?
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 46

47. Problems: Software Complexity
Service Oriented Programming
Productivity
Structured
Programming
Assembly
Complexity and Size
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 47

48. 1.2 Billion Cell Phones Can’t be Wrong!
From a ’90s legacy point of view the Java programming language
suffers from a series of misconceptions:
• It’s slow
• Hard to learn
• Too much of a resource hog
• Hard to interface to custom hardware.
….but from a practical “ this stuff just works and you should really look at it”
point of view :
• Fast enough
• Rapid code development from a large repository of existing code
• Memory management
• Write once, run anywhere (It is a virtual machine)
• Network and WEB centric
• IT Aware
• Available frameworks (OSGi)
• …..
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 48

49. Tools
• An IDE : ECLIPSE
• A language : JAVA
• a SOA for Devices : SODA
• and the WEB 2.0 technologies
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 49

50. …. the Challenge
• Society and Computing will form an
evolutionary symbiosis
• Research has to guide and focus the evolution
to the goal while dealing with
uncertainty and privacy
Ultimately
The systems have autonomously to adapt to
satisfy evolving human needs
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 50

51. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
with Software you can do
new, interesting, creative and
enjoyable things
ESEC/FSE
Dubrovnik ‘07 51