Originally slides for a talk at Republica Accra but related to this article https://manypossibilities.net/2019/02/rethinking-affordable-access/

1. Rethinking
Affordable
Access
@stevesong
manypossibilities.net

2. EVERYONE DESERVES
AFFORDABLE ACCESS TO
COMMUNICATION
Proposition

3. The Internet is a kind of super power

4. …it is not
quite
turning out
how we
imagined it

5. … but the
genie is not
going back in
the bottle.

6. CURRENT STRATEGIES ARE NOT
GOING TO DELIVER UBIQUITOUS
AFFORDABLE ACCESS
Proposition

7. Subscriber Growth is Slowing
Source: GSMA Intelligence

8. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Internetusersper100people
Percentagegrowth
Growth in Penetration (%)
Source: ITU/World Bank/Richard Thanki
Internet Growth Slowing

9. We’ve Connected the Easy Half
Billions of People on Earth Average Annual Income
Affordable Monthly
Communication Spend
1st Billion $29,206 $205
2nd Billion $12,702 $53
3rd Billion $5,540 $23
4th Billion $2,987 $12
5th Billion $1,771 $7
6th Billion $1,065 $4.4
7th Billion $540 $2.25
Source: Richard Thanki, University of Southhampton from UN & ITU data

10. WE ARE EXPERIENCING A SHIFT IN
ACCESS THAT IS AS PROFOUND
AS MOBILE
Proposition

11. FIBRE OPTIC INFRASTRUCTURE
SHIFT

12. The
State
of
Fibre
2009

13. The
State
of
Fibre
2018
OVER A
MILLION KM

14. FIBRE LEVELS THE
PLAYING FIELD
https://afterfibre.nsrc.org

15. WIRELESS TECHNOLOGIES
SHIFT

16. Wireless Evolution
Licensed Unlicensed
Technology GSM, 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, etc WiFi, Bluetooth, etc
Protection from
Interference
License Technology / Rules
Power Output High Low
Value Created Billions $ Billions $
Cost of
Technology
Coming down Ridiculously cheap

17. Unlicensed Spectrum Growth

18. Wireless Evolution
Licensed Unlicensed
Technology GSM, 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G, etc WiFi, Bluetooth, etc
License ($)
1997
None None
License ($)
2018
Millions $ None

19. Impact of Spectrum Auctions
Country Year Spectrum Price
# successful
bidders
Nigeria 2014 2.3GHz (30MHz) $23,000,000 1
Ghana 2015 800MHz (20MHz) $67,500,000 1
Nigeria 2016 2.6GHz (60MHz) $96,000,000 1
Mozambique 2013 800MHz (10MHz) $30,000.000 0
Tanzania 2018 800MHz (10MHz) $20,000,000 2
Mozambique 2018 800MHz (10MHz) $83,000,000 3

20. Spectrum
Auctions Lock
Small
Operators Out
of the Market

21. Global Economy
Large companies, financial
institutions, the State: serves global
markets
Local Market Economy
Small businesses, self-employment:
serves local needs
Subsistence Economy
Few market economy activities and
mainly informal activities: serves a
subsistence economyFernand Braudel
Not One but Three Economies

22. Global

23. Local

24. Subsistence

25. All Three
Economies Need
Empowering
Policies and
Regulation to
Allow Them to
Flourish

26. B4RN
>5000 connections
1 Gbps symmetric
18,000 sq km
Customers lost in 6yrs: 1

27. Zenzeleni
In last year:
15 businesses
15K unique devices
20 TB of traffic
20-100x cheaper

28. Lawrencetown
Co-op
~230 customers
20 Mbps
Had to reduce initial fee
$45/mo  $29/mo
Exploring health / power

29. Rhizomatica
14 community operators
60+ localities
~3500 users daily
4 MHz spectrum

30. When a flower
doesn't bloom,
you fix the
environment in
which it grows,
not the flower
Alexander Den Heijer
https://www.flickr.com/photos/automotocycle/7580595984/

31. We’ve Connected the Easy Half
Billions of People on Earth Average Annual Income
Affordable Monthly
Communication Spend
1st Billion $29,206 $205
2nd Billion $12,702 $53
3rd Billion $5,540 $23
4th Billion $2,987 $12
5th Billion $1,771 $7
6th Billion $1,065 $4.4
7th Billion $540 $2.25
Source: Richard Thanki, University of Southhampton from UN & ITU data

32. @stevesong
manypossibilities.net