September 9,2010 - CoolTech Club had been honored to have Steve give a keynote address on Emerging Technology Markets: From Green IT to Energy and Nanotech followed by the Q&A session.

1. Topics
• A
VC
Perspec.ve
• Disrup.ve
Innova.on
&
Accelera.ng
Change
• Energy
Market
Intersec.on

2. Entrepreneurship
Overview
• More
innova.on
now
than
ever
• Globaliza.on
• Entrepreneurs
are
everywhere
• Customers
and
partners
• Network
Effects

3. DFJ
Global
Network
Deal
Flow,
Market
Intelligence,
Business
Development,
150
Professionals

4. DJIA
–
founded
in
a
recession

5. Topics
DISRUPTION

6. Evermore
Moore

7. Tech Innovation Grows Exponentially
Source: Ray Kurzweil
Logarithmic Plot
Molecular
Electronics
Year

8. Innerva.ng
Cozy
Industries

9. Global
Network
Effects
Further
Accelera.ng
Change
Users
14!
Millions!
12!
10!
8!
6!
4!
2!
0!
0! 1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! 7! 8! 9! 10! 11! 12! 13! 14! 15! 16! 17! 18!
Months from First Users

10. A Natural Experiment
Photo courtesy of Rebekka Guoleifsdottir

11. THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits
Digital Presence Tools Soar as Flights are Grounded
 During the 5 days, Skype users made over 20 million more
video call minutes than normal
 The same time as 42,000 flights from London to NYC
 Over 12 billion Skype-to-Skype calls per month
 36% include Video
 50x more video minutes than YouTube uploads
Photo courtesy of Rebekka Guoleifsdottir

12. THEME: Switching Atoms for Bits
P2P versus Centralized Servers
• A search engine without servers or web crawlers
• Uses idle cycles in the cloud
• Compared to 30,000 servers
• 700K fewer lbs of CO2/day
• Like removing 35K cars from the road

13. Network Effects in Energy Markets
Where does all the water go?

14. DFJ Cleantech Portfolio
FUELS AND RESOURCE
GENERATION DISTRIBUTION STORAGE EFFICIENCY
CHEMICALS MANAGEMENT
•
Solar
•
Smart
Grid
• BaKery
•
LighGng
• Biochemical
•
Water
•
Wind
•
Meter
• Ultracap
•
HVAC
• Thermochemical
•
Agriculture
•
Hydro
•
Transmission
• Fuel
Cell
•
TransportaGon
•
PesGcides
•
Geothermal
•
Bldg
Materials
•
Waste
•
Emissions

15. Pure Electric Cars
Efficiency

16. China today…
Source: Jonathan Weinhert (Chevron)
Cost $200 - 450
Speed 16-25 mph
Power 350-750 W (1 hp)
Range 20-40 miles
Efficiency 35-45 miles/kWh

17. Best selling vehicle in China…
Beijing repeals ban
on e-bikes,
Guangzhou bans all
motorized two-
wheelers
China passes
law granting
E2Ws right to
bike lanes
E2W sales
surge after
SARS outbreak
First Gasoline scooters
commercial e- banned in several
bikes launched cities, 53K scrapped
(Shanghai, in Shanghai
Crane)
Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), E-bikes: Jamerson and Benjamin “Electric Bike World Report (2007 edition)”, Passenger cars:
China Bureau of Statistics, Motorcycles: Ohara, Honda Annual Report, Feng An (2010), iCET, Pike Research (2010)

18. TCO for China
$ / 100km
Sources: Jonathan Weinert (Chevron), Interviews with Shanghai E2W and motorcycle retailers.
Assumptions: 2007$, fuel economy: e-bike=15Wh/km, scooter=30km/l, compact car 10km/l. Fuel cost: gasoline
cost=4.5RMB/l, electricity cost=0.86RMB/kWh, bus fare=2RMB/trip. Vehicle lifetime: bicycle and e-bike=7yr, scooter and
motorcycle=10yr, car=15yrs.

19. Made in China – Low Speed EVs
Source: Feng An (2010), Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation

20. Cumula.ve
%
of
total
U.S.
electricity
use
Efficiency

21. Accelera.ng
Change….not
Just
IT
 Computation
Dickerson’s Law: Known 3D
 Storage
Protein Structures
 Networking
 Evolution
 Proteins crystallized
 Imaging resolution
 Genes mapped

22. Rapid
Growth
in
Genes
Sequenced
The Human Genome Project

23. Gene
Synthesis:
Bea.ng
Moore’s
Law
Source: Rob Carlson

24. DNA
Synthesis
Fabs
A TGC
Sources: Rob Carlson, Biolytic

25. Dawn
of
New
Era

26. Green,
Clean
Machine
–
Code
Comes
Alive
A T Synthetic Chromosome
G C
DNA Synthesizer
Sunlight
Pharmaceuticals
Plant Biomass Biofuels
Chemicals
CO2
+90%
of
all
Organic
Chemicals
come
from
Petroleum
and
Natural
Gas

27. Awakening giants

28. Design, engineer, evolve
Sugars
1,4-­‐Butanediol
(BDO)

29. Beyond Engineering
Danny Hillis, The Pattern on the Stone
“The greatest achievement of our
technology may well be the creation
of tools that allow us to go beyond
engineering – that allow us to create
more than we can understand.”

30. Black Swan Events
a rare event with extreme impact that affords retrospective predictability.

31. Black Swan in Computing?
“Quantum computers have the potential to solve problems that would
take a classical computer longer than the age of the universe.”
— Professor David Deutsch, Oxford

32. Summary
Efficiency
• Accelera.ng
Technological
Change
-­‐ Interdisciplinary
Renaissance
-­‐ IT
innervates
trillion
dollar
markets
-­‐ Perpetual
driver
of
disrup.on
⇒
Virtuous
cycle
for
entrepreneurs
⇒
a
great
.me
to
build
new
companies

33. Thank
You
• Email: SJ@DFJ.com
• flickr: Jurvetson
• Old text blog: jurvetson.blogspot.com