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Now we are ready to look into the mess !
Evolution of home mortgage  Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil, Christopher L. Peterson, Asst Prof of Law, Univ of Florida  1930s Lender-Banks Borrower-Individuals Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lender-Banks Borrower-Individuals Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  Bought loan Cash Transfer of credit risk, market risk  Had Access to long term borrowing Bought only those which conformed to certain underwriting standard ( called Prime Mortgages)
Evolution continued… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,
New Model of mortgage lending Lender-Banks Home loan funding Principal + interest payable over long term  Bought loan Cash Transfer of credit & market risk MBS Cash Transfer of market risk   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],SPV Securitization fees
Further evolution.. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Structured finance:  The players in securitization Originator End borrowers Conduit/trust/  SPV/SPE/SIV Investment bank  (underwriter) Rating agency Institutional  investor End lenders Insurance  company Broker Servicer $ $ $ $ $ Mortgages Mortgages MBS I&P ($) I&P ($) MBS, I&P ($) Financial  returns ($) LEGEND KEY O&G – interest and principal SPV – special purpose vehicle SPE – special purpose enterprise SIV – special investment vehicle MBS – mortgage backed securities Founder: loan originator or investment bank Purpose: transfering ownerhship of claims (loans) and collateral (mortgages) in order to issue mortgage backed securities (bonds). Exposure of founder: implicit guarantee in case of large losses. Assigns credit rating to issued MBSs. Organizes issuing of MBSs and places MBSs  to investors in financial markets. Broker places mortgage loans to borrowers for fee Manages the flow of interests and principal (I&P); usually, but not necessarilly the Originator  Typically a specialized mortgage bank Mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds… Can assume part of risks (insurance of mortgage loans, insurance of MBS returns).
Possible inter linkage in the US subprime mortgage market Source:  http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____66901.aspx
Reasons for forming of Subprime mess ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Big assumptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source :http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Misaligned incentives & pitfalls ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source : Subprime Mortgage Market Turmoil , testimony by Christopher L. Peterson
Good days turn bad. Crisis at the door (mid 2006 onwards): ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
what a mess…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In Short Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm  ,
Those good old days were gone now!!
How Subprime became Global Financial Crisis? Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html   In billion US $ How could problems with subprime mortgages, being such a small sector of global financial markets, provoke such dislocation?
Build up into a financial crisis… ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Poor Investors….  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Desperate banks…. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Lessons learned & Action plans …. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Financial Times ,  http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html
Subprime losses by Big Banks Worldwide :US$ 586.2 billion and still counting Source: Financial Times
Finance & Economy ,[object Object],[object Object]
Investments devalued across the Globe Source: BBC News,  http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/7644574.stm
Subprime impact across globe Source: Financial Times
Impact of Financial crisis-felt across the globe Source: Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/creditcrisis
Market share shifted from 2003 to mid 2006  ,[object Object],Between sub-prime and prime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Global pool of money Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html
Rise of Global Liquidity (1998 onwards) Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html
FED interest rate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
High Banks leverage ratio’s to fund MBS/CDO
Building up of the housing bubble
Housing prices and Income Source: http://varbuzz.com/meltdown/  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Starting 2006 housing bubble busted
LIBOR rate
Credit rating of complex financial instruments Source: IMF and WSJ
Speedy Foreclosures
Top 10 Bankruptcies
The American way of debt Source:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070
Average debt of American in 2004 Source:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070
Thanks

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financial-crisis-2008

  • 1. Now we are ready to look into the mess !
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. Structured finance: The players in securitization Originator End borrowers Conduit/trust/ SPV/SPE/SIV Investment bank (underwriter) Rating agency Institutional investor End lenders Insurance company Broker Servicer $ $ $ $ $ Mortgages Mortgages MBS I&P ($) I&P ($) MBS, I&P ($) Financial returns ($) LEGEND KEY O&G – interest and principal SPV – special purpose vehicle SPE – special purpose enterprise SIV – special investment vehicle MBS – mortgage backed securities Founder: loan originator or investment bank Purpose: transfering ownerhship of claims (loans) and collateral (mortgages) in order to issue mortgage backed securities (bonds). Exposure of founder: implicit guarantee in case of large losses. Assigns credit rating to issued MBSs. Organizes issuing of MBSs and places MBSs to investors in financial markets. Broker places mortgage loans to borrowers for fee Manages the flow of interests and principal (I&P); usually, but not necessarilly the Originator Typically a specialized mortgage bank Mutual funds, pension funds, hedge funds… Can assume part of risks (insurance of mortgage loans, insurance of MBS returns).
  • 7. Possible inter linkage in the US subprime mortgage market Source: http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____66901.aspx
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. In Short Source : http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2007/12/dodd.htm ,
  • 14. Those good old days were gone now!!
  • 15. How Subprime became Global Financial Crisis? Source: Financial Times , http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a09f751e-6187-11dd-af94-000077b07658,dwp_uuid=698e638e-e39a-11dc-8799-0000779fd2ac.html In billion US $ How could problems with subprime mortgages, being such a small sector of global financial markets, provoke such dislocation?
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19.
  • 20. Subprime losses by Big Banks Worldwide :US$ 586.2 billion and still counting Source: Financial Times
  • 21.
  • 22. Investments devalued across the Globe Source: BBC News, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/talking_point/7644574.stm
  • 23. Subprime impact across globe Source: Financial Times
  • 24. Impact of Financial crisis-felt across the globe Source: Reuters, http://www.reuters.com/news/globalcoverage/creditcrisis
  • 25.
  • 26. Global pool of money Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html
  • 27. Rise of Global Liquidity (1998 onwards) Source: http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/speeches/2968727.html
  • 28.
  • 29. High Banks leverage ratio’s to fund MBS/CDO
  • 30. Building up of the housing bubble
  • 31.
  • 32. Starting 2006 housing bubble busted
  • 34. Credit rating of complex financial instruments Source: IMF and WSJ
  • 37. The American way of debt Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070
  • 38. Average debt of American in 2004 Source: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/07/20/business/20debt-trap.html?ei=5070