4. Forum for the Future
a non-profit organisation working
globally with business and
government to create a sustainable
future
we aim to transform the critical
systems we rely on
we have 15 years’ experience
inspiring new thinking, building
creative partnerships and developing
practical innovations
6. the leader business spectrum
beginner performer leader pioneer
• Understanding of • Senior-level buy-in • CR a strategic • Business model
key CR issues • Vision of sustainable opportunity refocused to profit
• Compliance future • Sustainable from sustainable
systems in place innovation across value creation
• Systems in place to
deliver business
9. eight reasons why futures and strategy
marry well
1 addresses long-term issues that strategies often ignore
2 unearths hidden connections between diverse issues
3 generates new risks and opportunities
avoids ‘green’ stigma and builds understanding of
4 sustainable development
10. eight reasons why futures and strategy
marry well
5 builds consensus on what strategy must address
6 creates a mandate for change
7 builds strategic capacity – ‘prepared minds’
8 a key element of the sustainable organisation
11. process in four steps
scoping Issues
Timeframe
‘contract for implementation’
diagnosing Internal and external research
Create futures stimulus
Internal assessment
conceiving Goals
Generate options
and deciding
Select options
implementing Plan
Implement
Manage and monitor
12. example - PepsiCo
• scenarios to analyse strategic risks and opportunities
• applied to diverse markets including Latin America,
China, India, Nigeria, US and UK
• seen as a critical piece of strategic thinking for the
business, and is now being embedded into all business
units
• new sustainable agriculture unit
• amended risk register
• key input to global health and environment
commitments
13. climate futures
• partnership with HP Labs
• 5 scenarios exploring future impacts of climate change
• today used by many organisations for training, strategic
planning, and innovation - including HP, Unilever, and
the UK’s National Health Service
14. retail futures
• scenarios for future of UK retail
sector, sponsored by Tesco and Unilever UK
•a wide-ranging exercise examining what the
future could hold for UK retail, focusing
particularly on fast moving consumer goods
(FMCG)
• three years after the launch, we've already
witnessed some weak signals that we identified
in one or more of the scenarios, including the
economic downturn
18. about fashion futures
• joint project between Levi Strauss & Co and Forum for the
Future
• in consultation with over 40 experts, we constructed four
plausible, stretching scenarios for what the global fashion
industry could look like in 2025
• began in October 2008 and launched at London Fashion
Week in Feb 2010
– an engaging online report and printed executive
summary
– four short animations that represent the scenarios
– workshop materials: exercises, presentation, agenda
19. objectives of the project
• to communicate a well-researched, lively and engaging
series of scenarios and recommendations
• to promote a more sustainable future for the global fashion
industry
• to stimulate a debate about the future for global fashion
and inspire a more sustainable response to it
20. some certainties we can expect…
Severe and unpredictable weather
Impacts of climate change
Shifting rainfall patterns
Global target: cut CO2 50% by 2050
2025: 1.8 billion people living
Resource costs with water scarcity;
& shortages food, building
materials, energy, cotton: oil @
$130 in 2030
1.3 billion more people by mid-2020s
Demographic change Ageing population in developed world
21. …some factors we are less certain about
• How will society respond to resource scarcity and
climate change?
• How might legislation shape the fashion industry?
• How much disposable income will we have, and what
will we spend it on?
• How will the so-called ‘emerging economies’
develop?
• Technological advancement
• Consumer acceptance of sustainable consumption
• How might demographic changes affect the clothing
industry?
22. two areas of high importance and uncertainty
1. How connected is the world?
Connected where economic globalisation has
expanded further, trade barriers have
lowered, communications are more united and
global cultures are more similar.
Fragmented where globalisation has gone into
reverse, there is more protectionism, long
distance trade is declining and regional identities
are stronger.
23. two areas of high importance and uncertainty
2. How fast do society and its fashions change?
Fast where speed of change has accelerated: in
media and communications; in flows of financial
capital; and in how people express themselves
through culture and fashion.
Slow where the rate of consumption has reversed;
flows of financial capital are slower; and
cultures change more gradually.
24. Slow is
Beautiful
Political
collaboration and
global trade in a
world where slow
and sustainable is
fashionable
25. Resource
crises constrain
consumption in a
local community
focused world
Community
Couture
26. Techno-
High tech Chic
systems deliver
for a speed-
obsessed global
shopper
28. Fashion Futures Scenario Axis
Slow is Techno-
Beautiful Chic
Political High tech
collaboration and systems deliver
global trade in a for a speed-
world where slow obsessed global
and sustainable is shopper
fashionable
Resource Fast consumption
crises constrain in global
consumption in a cultural blocs
local community
focused world
Community Patchwork
Couture Planet
29. Slow is Techno -
Beautiful Chic
Community Patchwork
Couture Planet
30. CAUTION!
TREAT SCENARIOS WITH CARE
– not predictions, but images of possible futures,
tools to imagine what world could look like
– stimulate new ideas - challenges and
opportunities
– test strategies and brands for resilience
31. Slow is Beautiful
Collaboration in a world where slow and sustainable is
fashionable
– This is a moralistic world of low-carbon, sustainable
lifestyles
– Strict carbon regulation and sophisticated tracking and
labelling mean consumers are more aware of all impacts
– The majority of consumers are willing to pay more for a
smaller number of high-quality, sustainable clothing items.
– Fashion styles are gradually becoming more homogenised
and reflect a ‘safe’, less innovative world.
– The fashion industry has worked hard to decarbonise, and
shift people’s perceptions of the industry – post 20thC
consumption
– Although ‘living wages’ are now the norm for factory
workers, a ‘grey economy’ of cheaper fashion with poor
working conditions still exists.
32.
33. Techno - Chic
High tech systems deliver for a speed-obsessed global
shopper
– This is a prosperous world which has benefitted from an
early switch to a low-carbon economy and huge
technological investment.
– Smart consumers are flourishing in this high-tech, open
world of few trade barriers and fast-paced fashion
fads.
– Man-made fabrics rule the fashion markets, providing
personalised, high-tech, affordable options across the globe.
– Massive levels of automation and sharp declines in the use
of labour create pockets of crippling unemployment
across economies previously reliant on clothing manufacture
and production.
34.
35. Community Couture
Resource crises constrain consumption in a local community
focused world
– Self-sufficient communities thrive in a world struggling to
cope with the strain of growing populations and
resource shortages.
– Very high costs of raw materials and disrupted supply
chains have resulted in a dramatic fall in the production and
sale of new clothing.
– In its place vibrant local networks of second-hand
clothing have evolved: community bonds are strong and
creative fashion solutions abound.
– That said many consumers still strongly desire ‘new’
clothes – now affordable only to the rich or on the black
market.
36.
37. Patchwork Planet
Fast consumption in global cultural blocs
– Years of conflict, exacerbated by uneven economic
recovery from recession and a shortage of strategic
resources.
– Global community fragmented, with deep suspicion
between cultural blocs.
– A world of rapidly changing fashions – where styles are
led by an economically and culturally powerful Asia.
– Supply chains regionalise to meet consumer demand for
fast-changing, regional, patriotic fashion.
– The world is struggling to cope with mounting social
tensions and environmental constraints.
– Many wonder how long this pace can last.
38.
39. What do you think?
Any quick questions/ clarification?
Which seems most/ least appealing?
41. getting to know your scenario
you will now be given one scenario per table to work on in depth.
Please imagine your scenario is an accurate description of the real
world you are living in. Please try not to think about your own brand
– we’ll do that later!
• spend 5 minutes quietly reading through the scenario on your
own
• then discuss in your tables your answers to the following
questions:
1. how do you personally feel about this world? What makes
you happy? What makes you sad?
2. what might you personally be doing in this world?
3. what words would you use to characterise this world?
be ready to feedback the most interesting points to the room
44. stay in 2025 in your particular scenario....
discuss as a group your answers to the following Qs about brands
and possible future consumers (in general, NOT your consumers)
• what might consumers be demanding?
• how might consumers be feeling and how might they engage
with brands?
• what brands are likely to be successful and why?
45. 1. in your scenario groups, consider your answers to the following
questions:
• what might be important to your potential consumers in your
scenario in the future?
• how can your brand meet human/ customer/ emotional needs?
• how is that different to 2011?
2. based on that consumer insight:
• what are the opportunities for YOUR brand in this scenario?
• what are the risks for YOUR brand in this scenario?
48. consider:
• the sustainability opportunities and risks common to all scenarios
• the potentially high impact opportunities and risks that appear in
only one scenario
what would your brand look like if it responded to these
opportunities and risks in 2025?
what needs to happen today to make this happen?
suggested criteria to prioritise:
1. Overall sustainability impact
2. Consumer resonance
3. Distinctiveness to brand
