Electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving EU emission targets
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Gas condensing boiler, heat pumps, micro CHP, PV, fuel cells, and intelligent controls were analyzed for their potential to achieve long-term EU energy targets in residential dwellings. Heat pumps combined with PV and intelligent controls showed the highest potential to reduce CO2 emissions over the long term. Heat pumps on their own were also effective but saw greater savings when combined with other technologies. Financial support policies like feed-in tariffs were important for improving the operating costs and investment returns of renewable technologies.
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Electric technologies in dwellings - potential for achieving EU emission targets
- 1. Electric renewable technologies - Potential for achieving long term EU energy targets in residential dwellings March 2014 Krystyna Dawson
- 2. 2 Excellence in Market Intelligence Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager, BSRIA 2
- 3. 3 Excellence in Market Intelligence Methodology assumptions 3 And is based on following assumptions: • Calculations take into account total energy consumption of the household (not only related to the applied system). Heat load for new and existing dwellings and electricity consumption vary by country. • Current level of financial support and Feed-in-tariffs is applied. • Gas condensing boiler: primary efficiency 92% • Micro CHP system: primary efficiency 90%. Average electricity production: 3000kWh per year. 50% of generated electricity is used on site. • Electric Heat Pump: A/W HP COP 2.9 - 3.5 in existing dwelling / COP 3.9 - 4.5 in new dwelling • PV system: around 3kWp in all countries but Germany where larger system is more common (7kWp). 35% of electricity produced is for own consumption. • SO FC: overall efficiency 95% (thermal efficiency 60%, electric efficiency 35%) • PEM FC: overall efficiency 90% (thermal efficiency 53%, electric efficiency 37%) • Energy and end user prices based on the first half of 2013. Analysis has taken following products into consideration: • Gas condensing boiler (as a base technology to be enhanced or replaced by renewable products), Heat Pumps, mico CHP, PV (called established technologies),Fuel cells, intelligent controls (called emerging technologies) Has been carried out in: Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, Sweden and UK
- 4. 4 Excellence in Market Intelligence Main EU heating markets - background overview Climatic condition (average temperature) Share of renewables in final energy consumption Standard CO2 emission factor (for consumed electricity) Gas price 0.023 t CO2 /MWhe 0.624 t CO2 /MWhe 0.483 t CO2 /MWhe 0.440 t CO2 /MWhe France Italy Spain PolandGermany UK Sweden 0.056 t CO2 /MWhe Electricity price € 0.059 / kWh € 0.14 / kWh € 0.061/ kWh € 0.25 / kWh € 0.068 / kWh € 0.20 / kWh € 0.041 / kWh € 0.15 / kWh € 0.121 / kWh € 0.21 / kWh € 0.047 / kWh € 0.15 / kWh € 0.057 / kWh € 0.19 / kWh 1.191 tCO2 /MWhe 0.543 t CO2 /MWhe 2010:7.9% 2020: 23% 2010:12.2% 2020: 18 % 2010:3.3% 2020: 15% 2010:10% 2020: 17% 2010:11.3% 2020: 20% 2010:7.5% 2020: 15% 2010:35.9% 2020: 49% Between: -3 - 7.5°C Between 8.5 - 11°C Between 11 - 19°C Between 11 - 15°C Between 7 - 10°C Between 5 - 10°C Between 14 - 19°C
- 5. 5 Excellence in Market Intelligence Summary of findings 5 • Electric technologies with the highest potential to achieve reductions in CO2 emissions: - Heat Pumps, Intelligent controls, PV, Fuel cells. • Electric technologies offering the best savings to the end user (based on operating cost): - PV installed with a heat pump (in countries where FiT are available) • Electric technologies representing the best investment to the end user (based on lifetime cost): - PV and only in countries providing generous FiT can currently compete with gas condensing boilers in terms of life time cost. High initial investment reduces efficiency advantages in all other cases. • Electric technologies eligible for continuous long term financial support: - PV in Germany, France, UK - Heat pumps in Sweden • Market development: - highly dependent on consistent and continuous financial support - under increasing influence of energy prices In comparison to the high efficiency gas condensing boiler
- 6. 6 Excellence in Market Intelligence Technologies with the highest potential to achieve EU energy targets Existing dwellings: Electric Heat Pump 6 Intelligent controls Fuel Cell New dwellings: Electric Heat Pump Intelligent controls Photovoltaic
- 7. 7 Excellence in Market Intelligence Existing dwellings 7
- 8. 8 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country 8 Existing dwellings - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0 Heat Pumps & combination of HP and PV system is most effective kg CO2e / year
- 9. 9 Excellence in Market Intelligence CO2 emission savings - closer look established technologies 9 Heat pump Heat pump & PV system Current standard CO2 emission factor for consummed electricty Poland Germany / UK Italy / Spain France / Sweden 0.624 / 0.543 t CO2 /MWhe 0.056 / 0.023 t CO2 /MWhe 1.191 tCO2 /MWhe 0.483 / 0.440 t CO2 /MWhe Increased CO2 emissions Savings of CO2 emissions against stand alone gas condensing boiler: High savings (50%) Low savings (13% – 38%) Medium savings (47% - 23%) Low savings (6% - 17%) Medium savings (30% - 24%) High savings (90% - 96%) Very low savings (2% - 1%) PV system provides additional: Existing dwellings
- 10. 10 Excellence in Market Intelligence -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Micro CHP Electric Heat Pump PV+GCB PV+ HP 10 CO2 savings – long term prospect established technologies Heat pumps are most effective % savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized grid future Existing dwellings
- 11. 11 Excellence in Market Intelligence - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls SOFC Gas cond boiler (GCB) 11 Existing dwellings Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies by country - FC / Intelligent controls kg CO2e / year Fuel cells are very effective in countries with higher CO2 emission factors. HEMS and Intelligent controls added to HP are most effective in countries with heavy CO2 electricity. No FC in Sweden
- 12. 12 Excellence in Market Intelligence Recommended technologies 12 Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years): Heat pumps • Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization process of the grid; • Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency; • R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid. Intelligent controls • Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps • Will add to the reduction of energy demand. • Fuel cells • Ideal replacement of GCB in countries with higher CO2 emission factor; • Good alternative if heat pump cannot be installed. • More flexible electricty generator as PV system; can be part of the smart grid in the future. Existing dwellings
- 13. 13 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual operating cost for established technologies by country 13 €uro Existing dwellings - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Gas cond boiler (GCB)Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0 Impact on operating cost: • Energy prices • Financial support:
- 14. 14 Excellence in Market Intelligence Savings in Operating Cost – performance established technologies 14 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Micro CHP Electric Heat Pump PV+GCB PV+ HP Existing dwellings % savings in operating cost against GCB by technology, by country (over 20 years) • High electricity prices are keeping operating cost high for Heat Pumps. • Support by FiT proves to be very effective.
- 15. 15 Excellence in Market Intelligence 15 Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls SOFC Gas cond boiler (GCB) • Intelligent controls reduce operating cost and provide competitive advantage in dwellings with Heat Pumps. • Thanks to its electric efficiency, operating cost of a Fuel Cell is well below the level of gas condensing boiler, providing FiT (calculated at mCHP level) are available. Existing dwellings €uro / year
- 16. 16 Excellence in Market Intelligence Conclusions on operating cost potential Fuel cells – need further trials to prove their efficiency. 16 Heat Pumps - need Feed-in-tariff support to provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler. Intelligent controls – need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings Existing dwellings
- 17. 17 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country 17 €uro / year - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Poland hence value = 0 Existing dwellings
- 18. 18 Excellence in Market Intelligence 18 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls SOFC Gas cond boiler (GCB) Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country • Fuel Cell is currently bearing extremly high investment cost and showing competitive level of lifetime cost only with high electricity price and decent FiT (Germany). €uro / year
- 19. 19 Excellence in Market Intelligence New dwellings 19
- 20. 20 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual CO2 emissions for established technologies by country 20 kg CO2e New dwellings (1,000) - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0 Heat Pumps & a combination of HP and PV system is most effective
- 21. 21 Excellence in Market Intelligence 21 CO2 savings – long term prospect established technologies % savings in CO2 emissions against GCB by technology, by country (over 20 years) Addition of a PV system is effective in countries with high CO2 conversion factor -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% Micro CHP Electric Heat Pump PV+GCB PV+ HP Heat pumps are most effective for the decarbonized grid future New dwellings
- 22. 22 Excellence in Market Intelligence 22 Annual CO2 emissions for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent controls) by country kg CO2e HP combined with HEMS and Intelligent controls bring best savings in countries with lower CO2 conversion factor..- 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls PEM Fc No FC in Sweden New dwellings Fuel cells are effective in countries with high CO2 conversion factor (Germany, Poland).
- 23. 23 Excellence in Market Intelligence Recommended technologies 23 Recommended electric technologies to achieve the best carbon savings in the long term approach (next 20 years): Heat pumps • Effective in reducing CO2 emissions as a replacement of gas condensing boiler today; • Their positive impact on CO2 emission savings will keep increasing following decarbonization process of the grid; • Help reduce energy demand thanks to continually increasing efficiency; • R&D towards development of intelligent HP will make them fit for becoming part of the smart grid operational system. • Can play a role of „energy storage“ in the future smart grid. Intelligent controls • Help enhance savings achieved by heat pumps • Will add to the reduction of energy demand. • Photovoltaic • Reduce CO2 emissions • In dwellings with no gas connection the only way of own electricty generation; • Combined with storage solutions they can be part of the smart grid in the future. New dwellings
- 24. 24 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual operating cost for established technologies by country 24 €uro New dwellings (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Sweden hence value = 0
- 25. 25 Excellence in Market Intelligence Savings in operating cost over 20 years – established technologies 25 Savings in operating cost (over 20 years) when GCB is replaced or combined with electric renewable system -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP Electric Heat Pump PV+GCB PV+ HP FiT have biggest impact on operating cost for PV and micro CHP systems. No FiT for HP in new dwellings. New dwellings
- 26. 26 Excellence in Market Intelligence 26 Annual operating cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country €uro 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls PEM Fc • Operating cost of a Fuel Cell is below the level of gas condensing boiler even when FiT is not available (Italy, Spain, Poland) . • Intelligent controls reduce operating cost to the higher extent than in existing dwellings. New dwellings
- 27. 27 Excellence in Market Intelligence Conclusions on operating cost potential Photovoltaics need storage battery to develop in order to achieve its full potential. 27 Heat Pumps - provide competitive operation cost against gas condensing boiler even without FiT. Disadvantaged by FiT available for PV and micro CHP Intelligent controls – need information campaign to make customers aware of their potential for savings New dwellings
- 28. 28 Excellence in Market Intelligence Annual lifetime cost for established technologies by country 28 €uro New dwellings - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) micro CHP PV + GCB PV + HP UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Micro CHP not sold in Poland hence value = 0 • High end user price, lack of financial support for heat pump and high electricity cost make HP less competitive than gas cond. boiler.
- 29. 29 Excellence in Market Intelligence 29 €uro Annual lifetime cost for emerging technologies (FC / Intelligent Controls) by country • Fuel Cell is currently bearing very high investment cost and due to lower heat load producing less electricity. Both result in lifetime cost not competitive with HP and GCB. - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 UK Germany France Italy Spain Poland Sweden Gas cond boiler (GCB) Heat pump (HP) HP+HEMS+Int.Controls PEM Fc
- 30. 30 Excellence in Market Intelligence Summary Offer high CO2 savings in new and existing dwellings on the long term. 30 Intelligent controls Fuel Cell Photovoltaic Heat pumps Their market adoption is highly dependent on: Feed-in-tariffs Energy prices Heat load Product efficiency
- 31. 31Excellence in Market Intelligence Thank you Contact: Krystyna Dawson Senior Manager – Heating & Renewables BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence Direct: +44 (0)1344 465 638; Mob: +44 (0)7990 595836 Email: krystyna.dawson@bsria.co.uk
Notes de l'éditeur
- Following renewable technologies have been taken into consideration: electric heat pumps, micro CHP, PV (called “established technologies” across the presentation as well as fuel cells and intelligent controls (called emerging technologies across the presentation). They have been set against the high efficiency gas condensing boiler which was taken as base technology to be enhanced or replaced by renewable product.Among the assumptions the most important point is to understand that our calculations have taken into account total energy consumption of the household, not only related to the applied system. Product efficiency has been based on available info from manufacturers as well as from efficiency test programs carried out by various institutes in some European countries and BSRIA information. Different heat load has been assumed for existing and new dwellings in each countries. The average size of products/ systems applied in residential dwellings came from the research BSRIA WMI has carried out during the last 10 years on the European renewable markets.
- For your information a brief overview of main factors that represent the background of the analysis. Our study has been looking at longer term perspective, with 2030 development in view. Not all of the analysed countries have a defined 2030 energy targets. However having the European Energy Roadmap 2050 in mind and targets adopted in some of the leading European countries we have assumed that the trend in the next 20 years will be to increase the share of RES in electricity production (63% of RES in electricity production in Germany, 15% RES in UK energy demand by 2020). The choice of technologies presented today is also in relation to this trend.
- We have provided this analysis based on the level of incentives, energy prices, product efficiency and heat load that do not change over the next 20 years. It would certainly be interesting to know which of the above factors will have the biggest impact on future effectiveness of the systems and which will most significantly influence their sales potential. Should you be interested to become actively involved in the project please let us know promptly.