What has been the overall trend in final energy consumption and by sector in the EU since 2000? What are the main drivers of the energy consumption variation since 2000, and what has been the impact of energy savings? What are the trends in energy efficiency at the country level? These are the key questions that will guide you through this webinar analysing energy efficiency trends in the EU for the period 2000-2019. This presentation deck was used during the 9th webinar in the Odyssee-Mure on Energy Efficiency Academy on 25 June 2020. Recordings are available on https://youtu.be/ucd7J_kYbEk

1. Energy efficiency trends in the EU:
Have we got off track?
June 25, 2020
Bruno Lapillonne, Laura Sudries, Enerdata
Odyssee-Mure webinar series on Energy Efficiency
organised by Leonardo ENERGY

2. About
▪ This webinar is organized in the framework of the ODYSSEE MURE Project.
▪ This project is supported by the H2020 programme of the European Commission.
It covers 31 countries*, mainly energy efficiency agencies or Ministries; it is
coordinated by ADEME, with the support of Enerdata and Fraunhofer-ISI.
▪ Its main objectives are to:
✓ Evaluate and compare energy efficiency progress by sector, in relation to the
observed trend in energy consumption and to the EU targets ;
✓ Evaluate energy efficiency policy measures and identify the “best measures” .
▪ The project relies on two data bases:
✓ ODYSSEE on energy efficiency indicators;
✓ MURE on all policy measures implemented by sector, and their impact
evaluation.
www.odyssee-mure.eu
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 2
*28 EU Member States (UK included)+ Norway, Serbia and Switzerland

3. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 3
The ODYSSEE data tools
http://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/
The data and indicators are updated to 2019 using final energy consumption
data produced by Enerdata and “early estimates” of key indicators produced
by ODYSSEE through a new methodology (to be revised later and included in
data tools in October).
The webinar is based on
data and indicators
prepared in the
framework of the
ODYSSEE-MURE project,
and disseminated in a
data base and 5 data
tools

4. Outline
▪ Energy consumption trends
▪ Energy efficiency trends
▪ Conclusions : have we got off track?
4Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

5. Energy consumption trends
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

6. • Stability of the EU primary
consumption (total energy
supply) since 2014, although
the GDP increased by 2%/yr
with the return to economic
growth.
• This follows a significant
decrease of 1.5%/yr between
2007 and 2014 due to the
financial crisis of 2009.
• Regular and rapid decrease
of the primary energy
intensity since 2007
(~1.8%/year), slightly faster
than over 2000-2007 (+0.3
pt)
Primary energy consumption and intensity VS GDP
Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: ODYSSEE
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 6
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
%/year
GDP Primary consumption Intensity
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000=100

7. • Since 2014, decreasing primary consumption in 7 countries and low
consumption growth below the 0.5%/year observed for the EU in 3
other countries.
• Everywhere the consumption is progressing much slower than the
GDP, implying a decreasing energy intensity, especially significant in
Ireland, Malta, Sweden and the Czech Rep (below 3%/yr).
Primary consumption and GDP trends over 2014-2019
Consumption at normal climate; Sources: ODYSSEE until 2017, Enerdata for 2018 and 2019; *2014-2018.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 7
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
%/year
Primary cons. GDP

8. • Final consumption, i.e. consumption in industry, transport and buildings,
grows again since 2014 with the economic rebound: 0.8%/year.
• This contrasts greatly with the primary energy consumption trend.
• Electricity grows much slower (0.3%/yr), as opposed to past trends.
• Transport is the most dynamic sector since 2014 (1.6%/yr, similar to
2000-2007 trend), while industry has the lowest progression (0.2%/yr).
Households and services at normal climate
*Services include non-specified
Source: ODYSSEE
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 8
Total Electricity
Final energy consumption trends
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
%/year
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019 2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019

9. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 9
Drivers of primary energy consumption variation over 2014-2019
• Between 2014 and 2019, the primary consumption increased by 17 Mtoe,
compared to 50 Mtoe for the final consumption.
• This much lower progression of the primary consumption is due to:
• a significant change in the power mix (higher share of renewables,
lower share of nuclear) which contributed to lower the increase in
primary consumption by 23 Mtoe
• the increasing efficiency of thermal power plants (-20 Mtoe)
A higher progression of final energy consumption
Source: ODYSSEE Decomposition tool
1 519
+ 50
+ 5
- 20
- 23 + 5
1 536
1 450
1 500
1 550
1 600
2014 Var. final
cons.
Electricity
penetration
Efficiency
thermal power
plants
Power mix Other transf. 2019
Mtoe

10. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 10
Final energy consumption by sector and by energy
• Increasing share of transport in total final
consumption from 30% to 34% in 2019 while
industry’ share decreased by 4 pts, down to 25%.
• Doubling of the direct penetration of renewables
(from 4 to 8% in 2019).
• Decreasing share for gas (from 24% in 2000 to
21% in 2019) and for oil (from 43% to 41%) while
electricity share increased by 2 points.
At normal climate for households and services
Sources: 2000: ODYSSEE and 2019 : Enerdata
6%
43%
24%
19%
4% 4%
5%
41%
21%
21%
4%
8%
Coal Oil
Gas Electricity
Heat Renewables
2000
2019*
29% 25%
30% 34%
27% 26%
11% 13%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2019*
Mtoe
Industry Transport Households Services Agriculture

11. Energy efficiency trends
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020

12. 12
How is measured energy efficiency progress in ODYSSEE?
▪ At the level of sub-sectors or end-uses, energy efficiency progress
is assessed through a wide variety of indicators of specific
consumption, measured in physical units, such as:
✓ toe/ton for steel, cement in industry (or GJ/t);
✓ toe/pkm for cars, toe/tkm for freight in transport;
✓ toe/m2 for heating, kWh/household for electrical appliances
and AC, … for households ;
✓ kWh/employee, per m2, per bed … in services.
▪ Examples of sectoral indicators are provided in the ODYSSEE “key
indicators tool”*
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
*https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/online-indicators.html

13. 200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
12.5 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
kWh/households
koe/m2
Heating Refrigerators
The question now is how to measure energy efficiency
progress at sector level?
• For households, we may obtain for instance different energy efficiency
trends: 2.7%/yr for refrigerators and 1.9%/yr for heating.
• The question now is how can we combine the different assessments of
energy efficiency progress by end-use to get one trend for the whole
sector?
• This is the objective of the energy efficiency index, called “ODEX”.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 13
-1.9%/yr
-2.7%/yr

14. How is calculated ODEX?
• ODEX is calculated:
– First, by expressing trends in specific energy consumption by
end-use or sub-sector, as an index of variation ;
– Then by calculating a average index for the sector weighted by
the share of each end-use or sub-sector in the sector’s energy
consumption.
• As for each sub-sector, index of variation are used, specific
consumption can be expressed in different physical units so as to
be as close as possible to energy efficiency evaluation.
• ODEX is presently calculated on the basis of up to 40 sub-sectors
(8 modes in transport, 11 end-uses for households, 14 branches in
industry, 6 branches in services).
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 14
For more information on ODEX: https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/odex-indicators-database-definition.pdf

15. Example of ODEX: households in the EU
• ODEX equal 67 in 2019 ➔ households energy efficiency has improved
by 33% at EU level between 2000 and 2019 (or 2.1%/year).
Only main end-uses shown; ODEX calculated on the basis of 11 end-uses/large appliances :
heating (toe/m2) (separation new/existing dwellings), water heating, cooking
(toe/dwelling), cooling, lighting, refrigerator, freezer, washing machine, dishwasher, dryer,
TV (kWh/appliance)
15Source: ODYSSEE Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2000=100
Total
Heating
Water
heating
Cooking
Large elec
appliances
AC
Lighting

16. • Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.2%/yr from 2000
to 2019, with a slow down in recent years (0.9%/yr since 2014).
• Larger gains for households (2.1%/yr since 2000), with a net slow
down since 2014 (1.6 %/yr).
• Rate of improvement divided by more than 2 in industry, since 2007
(0.8%/yr compared to 1.8%/yr before).
• Regular but limited improvement in transport (1%/year).
Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers
ODEX=79 in 2019 ➔ 21% energy efficiency improvement or 1.2%/yr
Source: ODYSSEE
16
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
2000=100
Industry Transport Households Services Total

17. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 17
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cumulatedenergysavings
(Mtoe)
Annualenergysavings
(Mtoe/year)
Annual energy savings Cumulated energy savings
Source: ODYSSEE
• Energy efficiency progress has saved every year since 2000, an
additional volume of 14 Mtoe.
• These annual savings are fluctuating but tend to decrease over time.
• Cumulated since 2000, these savings reached around 270 Mtoe in
2019.
Energy efficiency progress results in energy savings

18. Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 18Source: ODYSSEE
• Because of the slowing pace of energy efficiency improvement, the
annual additional savings have been regularly decreasing: from an
average volume of 16.5 Mtoe/yr over 2000-2007 to 14.5 Mtoe/yr over
2007-2014 (divided by 3 in industry) and 11 Mtoe/yr since 2014 (1/3
reduction for households).
Regular decrease in energy savings
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
Mtoe
Industry Transport Households Services
Average annual additional savings by sector

19. • The cumulated energy savings in 2019 since 2000 represents the
equivalent of 25% of final energy consumption: in other words without
these savings the final consumption would have been 25% higher.
• Households, the sector with the highest number of regulations, is over
represented, with a share of total savings (46%), much higher than its
share in consumption (27%). On the other hand, savings in transport are
much lower than their share in consumption (25% vs 34%).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mtoe
25%
25%
46%
4%
% in energy savings
% in final consumption
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 19
Energy savings versus consumption
Source: ODYSSEE
25%
34%
27%
14%

20. High share of energy savings
in final consumption (>25%)
Low share of energy savings in
final consumption (<25%)
• Long-standing EU Member
States (e.g. Germany, Italy and
France) have a relatively lower
share of energy savings since
2000, as they had a greater
effort before.
• New EU MS (e.g. Slovakia,
Bulgaria or Latvia) have a
higher share due to greater
efforts in terms of energy
savings since 2000
Source: ODYSSEE
Austria
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Norway
Portugal
Czech Rep
Slovakia
Slovenia
Sweden
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4%
Austria
Belgium
Spain
Finland
France
UK
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Poland
Czech Rep
Germany
Romania
Sweden
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Shareofcountryenergysavings(2000-2017)intotal
EUsavings
Share of country final energy consumption in total EU

21. 21
Activity effect : mainly economic growth, plus demography and lifestyle changes (appliance
ownership and larger dwellings).
Source: ODYSSEE; decomposition tool https://www.indicators.odyssee-mure.eu/decomposition.html
Drivers of final energy consumption variation:
2014-2019
• Between 2014 and 2019, the economic and demographic growth
(“activity”) contributed to raise the final consumption by 95 Mtoe.
• Energy savings offset more than half of this activity effect by reducing
consumption by 55 Mtoe.
50.3
95.1
-4.1
-54.5
6.8 7.0
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mtoe
Var. cons. final
Activity
Structure
Energy savings
Climate
Other

22. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Mtoe
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Energy savings Primary cons.
Energy savings first fuel in primary energy consumption
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 22
• Looking on a longer period, since 1990, energy savings have reduced
primary consumption by around 580 Mtoe in 2019, i.e. the equivalent
of 27% of that consumption.
• Energy savings is the first fuel in primary consumption in 2019 (4
points above oil with a share of 23%).
Energy savings represents 27%
of 2019 primary consumption
Source: ODYSSEE

23. Final energy intensity and energy efficiency trends
• Since 2014 energy efficiency only explains half of the final energy
intensity reduction.
• Different types of structural changes (e.g. towards less energy intensive
sectors (services) and industrial branches, saturation effects, higher value
added products … ) have contributed as much to the intensity reduction .
• Before 2014 most of the intensity decrease was due to energy efficiency
improvements (around 80%)…
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 23
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2000-2007 2007-2014 2014-2019
%/year
Final intensity Structural changes Savings
Source: ODYSSEE

24. Conclusions
Have we got off track?
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 24

25. EU Energy efficiency targets
* Referred to as PRIMES 2007 from the model name used
• Energy efficiency targets are always difficult to define, they can be
expressed in terms of:
i. Energy intensity reduction, but as explained, variation in intensity
include other factors than energy efficiency;
ii. Energy consumption reduction compared to a baseline;
iii. Energy savings;
iv. Energy consumption target level (i.e. absolute consumption cap)
• The EU has been using the 3 last types of targets, in a complementary
way. If we refer to the most recent update of the EU energy efficiency law
called EED (Energy Efficiency Directive), the EU has the following targets:
• 32.5% energy saving target in 2030 (20% in 2020), for the EU as
whole, compared to a Baseline projection*;
• 1.5% additional energy savings until 2020 and 0.8% over 2021-2030
from energy savings obligation or policy measures (Article 7 of EED);
• Primary and final energy consumption targets by country (Article 3).
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 25

26. 800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Mtoe
Primary cons. at real climate Final cons. at real climate Final cons. target
Primary cons. target BAU primary BAU final
Primary and final energy consumption targets
Source: ODYSSEE
-20%
• In 2019, EU primary and final consumption were closed to the 2020
efficiency targets (around 4% and 3% above respectively).
• Warmer winters have helped achieving the targets (final consumption at
normal climate 5% above target in 2019) .
• Past trends do not enable to reach the 2030 targets.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 26
-32.5%
PRIMES 2007

27. 27
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Mtoe
Art. 7 savings Top-down ODYSSEE savings Target
Article 7 imposes a certain level of energy savings
• 1.5% of additional annual savings according to Article 7 of EED for
final consumers over 2014-2020 (and 0.8%/year from 2021 to 2030).
• Energy savings from Article 7 as reported by MS reached 40% of 2020
target in 2017, our estimate based on indicators exceed the target but
our savings are broader than Article 7 savings (as they include all
types of savings: policy related and from autonomous progress).
Source: ODYSSEE
Savings target obtained by cumulating annual energy savings over 2014-2020

28. Conclusions
• Since 2014, the increasing share of renewables and
more efficient thermal generation has offset 90% of
the increase in final consumption.
• Energy efficiency improvement of final consumers
has been much slower since 2007 in industry and
since 2014 for households.
• The progression is the strongest for households
(multiple regulations and incentives implemented at
EU and national level).
• Have we got off track?
– EU 2020 targets on primary consumption will be
easily reached due to COVID crisis which will
decrease consumption by 5 to 10% in 2020.
– EU target to 2030 will not be reached with
present trends and require additional measures,
which is the purpose of Article 7.
Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020 28

29. www.enerdata.net
Thank you for your
attention !
Contact:
About Enerdata:
Enerdata is an energy
intelligence and consulting
company established in 1991.
Our experts will help you tackle
key energy and climate issues
and make sound strategic and
business decisions.
We provide research, solutions,
consulting and training to key
energy players worldwide.
Bruno Lapillonne,
Scientific director
Bruno.lapillonne@enerdata.net
Laura Sudries,
Energy efficiency analyst
Laura.sudries@enerdata.net
29Energy efficiency trends in EU – June 2020