RORY SUTHERLAND Vice Chairman of Ogilvy Group Back to the Boardroom Har dagens marknadschef förlorat sitt inflytande? De ofattbara tekniska framsteg som gjorts har inte matchats av motsvarande förbättringar av vår förståelse av mänskligt beteende eller av de påverkansmodeller som marknadsförare använder. Om hur marknadsförare ska återta makten, genom ny vetenskap och ökad förståelse för hur beteenden påverkar ekonomiska beslut. Sutherland har rankats nr 22 på the Guardians lista över världens 100 mest inflytelserika människor inom media, marknadsföring och PR.

2. Spot the terrorist
• Law
• Finance
• Engineering
• Islamic Studies
• French
2

4. Gambetta and Hertog write about a particular mind-set among engineers that disdains
ambiguity and compromise. They might be more passionate about bringing order to
their society and see the rigid, religious law put forward in radical Islam as the best way
of achieving those goals. In online postings, Abdulmutallab expressed concern over the
conflict between his secular lifestyle and more extreme religious views. "How should
one put the balance right?" he wrote.
Terrorist organizations seem to have recognized this proclivity—in Abdulmutallab,
obviously, but also among engineers in general. A 2005 report from British intelligence
noted that Islamic extremists were frequenting college campuses, looking for
"inquisitive" students who might be susceptible to their message. In particular, the report
noted, they targeted engineers.

5. The sweet spot
Technology Psychology
Economics

6. IBM at Terminal 5

7. Two problems
• MarkeAng is lacking in influence
• Our models have not kept pace with changes in the
media we use to deploy them
• No first principles

8. Job descripAon
• To turn human understanding
into business advantage.
• Two raw materials: insight and imaginaAon

9. The difference….

10. Praxeology
The lost science: a new, unified way of looking at the world

11. Time for a new vocabulary?

12. Where to find it?
• “The best books about adverAsing aren’t about
adverAsing”.
• “Whoever discovered water, it sure as hell wasn’t a
fish”

13. A few new phrases
• Availability (mental and physical distribuAon)
• Signalling – (brand personality)
– Handicap (brand quality; the brand as bond)
– HeurisAcs & biases (sequencing effects)
• Framing, comparison and context
• Immediacy
– Loss (SaAsficing and maximising)

14. Signalling:
Seduction is
not a form of
persuasion:
seduction is the
opposite of
persuasion.

15. Signalling II:
• SomeAmes messaging
needs to be costly and/or
difficult to carry real meaning

16. InformaAon Asymmetry & commitment

17. SaAsficing vs Maximising

18. A problem

19. HeurisAcs
• "Isn’t more informaAon always be_er? In economics, Nobel prizes are regularly awarded for
work that assumes that people make decisions as if they had perfect informaAon and could
compute the opAmal soluAon for the problem at hand. But how do real people make good
decisions under the usual condiAons of li_le Ame and scarce informaAon? Consider how
players catch a ball—in baseball, cricket, or soccer. It may seem that they would have to solve
complex differenAal equaAons in their heads to predict the trajectory of the ball. In fact, players
use a simple heurisAc. When a ball comes in high, the player fixates the ball and starts running.
The heurisAc is to adjust the running speed so that the angle of gaze remains constant —that is,
the angle between the eye and the ball. The player can ignore all the informaAon necessary to
compute the trajectory, such as the ball’s iniAal velocity, distance, and angle, and just focus on
one piece of informaAon, the angle of gaze.”
Gerd Gigerenzer

20. Choice architecture

21. Price heurisAcs

22. Choice architecture, pt 2

23. Framing ‐ II

24. Context

26. Which Is Brighter, A Or B?

27. Which Is Brighter, A Or B?
27

28. Which Is Brighter, A Or B?
28

29. Which Is Brighter, A Or B?

30. A Uniform Grey Strip?

31. A Uniform Grey Strip?

32. A Uniform Grey Strip?
32

33. A Uniform Grey Strip?

34. Change the frame, change the game

35. RelaAvity: Framing effects

38. Selling cars offline

42. How Changing a Bu_on Increased a Site's
Annual Revenues by $300 Million

43. One point
• Logic won’t tell you this
• Research won’t tell you this

44. Another two problems
• “People don’t do what they say
they believe; they do what’s
convenient, and then they repent.”
“When a man says ‘my wife doesn’t
understand me’, it doesn’t mean he’s
planning an affair. He’s already had one.”

46. Finally
• h_p://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2010/04/
behavioral‐economics‐reading‐list/
• Or h_p://snipurl.com/tendencybe for short
Yours, @rorysutherland