1.
Football Trader
Betting methods to help you
maximize your profit!
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents ...................................................................................................... 3
Introduction ................................................................................................................ 4
Football Trader – Getting started.......................................................................... 6
Betting exchanges..................................................................................................... 6
Betfair operations ....................................................................................................... 7
What is the football system?................................................................................... 8
System 1..................................................................................................................... 9
Condition...................................................................................................................9
Example 1 ................................................................................................................ 11
BET 1 .................................................................................................................... 13
BET2...................................................................................................................... 13
Quick re-cap of steps............................................................................................... 14
75
th
minute rule....................................................................................................... 14
So what do we do now? ........................................................................................... 15
Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 17
Example 2 ............................................................................................................... 18
Example 3 ............................................................................................................... 24
Half Time ............................................................................................................... 25
Example 4 ............................................................................................................... 28
When things go against you...................................................................................... 30
Different types of matches........................................................................................ 31
System 2....................................................................................................................34
Strategy.................................................................................................................... 36
Example 1 ................................................................................................................ 38
Quick re-cap........................................................................................................... 41
Example 2 ............................................................................................................... 42
When things go wrong and the trade goes against you ................................................ 44
What to do?............................................................................................................ 45
Conclusion................................................................................................................49
3

3.
Introduction
This comprehensive guide will teach
you the ins and outs of trading football games on the exchanges. By following our
methods and strategies you will have the knowledge to make a healthy income
week after week.
The methods I teach you in this book are my own and I have been using them
over the past 2 years to make a very generous second income. £150 - £400 is a
realistic target that can be achieved each week, I usually make around £250 but
will be increasing my stakes with the profits from selling this book. Let me point
out that sharing my methods with others will not affect my chances of winning.
No matter how many people are using this strategy you will not be affected.
Before we begin let me outline a few important factors about trading.
Since the start of the betting exchanges a few years ago, we have been given
the opportunity not only to bet on a certain outcome but to bet against it too
(this is known as laying). This provides us with many opportunities and overall
is the key element of trading. We can bet on a team winning and then, during
the game, we can bet on them losing, to lock in a guaranteed profit regardless of
the outcome. This form of trading is sometimes called arbing.
Laying a team (for example, betting that Aston Villa will lose to Liverpool)
reduces the number of possible outcomes in a game. For example, before the
exchanges existed you could only bet on a) Aston Villa winning b) Liverpool
winning or c) a draw. So there were 3 possible outcomes. Now that we can
lay a team we have eliminated one of the outcomes. If we bet on Aston Villa
losing, we win our bet if it’s a draw or if Liverpool win. Therefore there are
only two possible outcomes in a match: a win or a draw.
Thousands of people bet on Betfair (a leading betting exchange) every
day, but only about 2% of them actually make a profit in the long run, and
the majority of these people are traders.
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Football Trader
Trading is not gambling. Gambling is considered to be a risk, where you are
hoping for a certain result to occur. Trading on the other hand involves
carefully selected bets combined with a successful strategy to minimise
losses and produce a profit regardless of the outcome. Traders anticipate the
market and bet when there is good value to be had.
Trading involves self-control and discipline, which are things you will gain
with experience. Without the right level of discipline you will not make it as a
trader. A lot of people become too greedy and put themselves at risk - these
are the people who fail.
Right, now before you begin to study the system, make sure you are in the right
frame of mind. You should always be focussed when trading, and there is no
reason why it should be any different when learning. If you don’t get this bit
right you will never know what you are doing.
5

5.
Football Trader – Getting started
Before you can start trading properly there are a few things you need:
1) The obvious one is a PC. Make sure your PC is up-to-date and not too
slow. Do not have too many programs open at once, since this can
slow things down. There are a lot of free tools on the Internet that can
improve the performance of your PC.
2) Internet connection: I highly recommend you have a broadband
connection; it is much faster than dial-up and is relatively cheap now.
3) Once your PC and internet connection are OK, you will need to open
a Betfair account, and register a credit or debit card to allow you to
add funds to your betting account. The URL is: betfair.com
4) Not essential but recommended, a TV with access to as many
live football games as possible.
Betting exchanges
In order to use the Football Trader system, you must use a betting exchange.
A betting exchange is a revolutionary new way of betting; it involves betting
against other people, thus bypassing the traditional bookmaker. This allows you
to lay a certain outcome; basically this means betting on a horse or football team
not to win. The advantage of these betting exchanges is that you can expect
much better prices than you can get with a bookmaker. Another advantage is
that you can now trade on various sporting events. You will pay commission on
your trading profits, starting at about 5% but decreasing with your usage.
The leading betting exchange is Betfair and I highly recommend using them
when trading. They have now introduced Betfair Play For Fun; on this site, you
can practise using the exchange without the need to use real money. The URL
is: http://www.playbetfair.com/
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Football Trader
Here is a screenshot from the Betfair site that gives a basic explanation of how
the exchange works.
Betfair operations
When using the systems in this book, you will be laying events and backing them.
Also, at times you will need to perform two combinations of both of these.
The first is when you need to cancel or reverse a trade; to do this, if you have
laid an event, you need to back it for the same money. If the event loses, you
neither gain nor lose any money. If the event wins, depending on the odds of
the two bets, you may gain or lose money.
The second is when you arb a trade; having laid an event, you then back the
event when the odds have risen. By backing for the right amount, you can
make a profit on the trade, regardless of the outcome of the event.
7

7.
What is the football system?
The Football Trader consists of two unique betting systems, Systems 1 and 2,
based on proven statistics and types of betting structure; the strategies are
built around proven trading techniques that are applied to football betting.
The Football Trader produces a profit around 85% of the time. By betting on
certain outcomes we aim to capture a guaranteed profit by placing other related
bets. For example, we lay a selection then back it once the price has risen to lock
in a guaranteed profit regardless of the outcome. To do this we must trade using
in-running games, in which Betfair allow betting throughout the match. Odds do
not tend to move prior to Kick Off; this is why we need to be able to bet in-
running, as a goal can dramatically change the odds, giving us opportunities to
trade.
You can easily identify games that are in-running as they are quoted on the
Betfair home page each day. They are also the games that are live on TV. This is
why I recommend you watch the match whilst trading on it. By observing the
game you can get a general feeling for how the game is going to turn out. This
can be very important when making decisions. Another important factor is when
a goal is scored; you need to know the moment a goal has been scored so you
can take action on your trade, and hopefully make yourself a profit before the
end of the game.
Bank: The amount you win obviously depends on the size of your
bank. To begin with, I suggest you use relatively small stakes
until you are more confident in the system. A bank of £200 - £300
is quite sufficient to begin with. Once you start to win, your bank
will soon increase, allowing you to increase your stakes, giving
higher profits. You can expect a return on investment of around
20% - 30% each game. This may not sound much, but compare it
to a savings account which generates on average 4% per year.
The Football Trader can produce 20% – 30% per day. This is
quite sufficient to make a full time living.
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System 1
(I recommend that you print this page and the next page, and keep them by you when trading
until you are familiar with the concept.)
Condition
In order to use this system, the favourite team must have odds lower than 1.75
to score the next goal. Anything above this would suggest a close game, which
can not be traded effectively with this system. System 2 can be used with games
where this condition is not satisfied. But I strongly recommend that you become
completely familiar with System 1 first.
These are the markets we use on the Betfair exchange in this system:
Match Odds – (simple win lose or draw)
Next Goal – (bet on which teams will score next, or bet on no more goals)
There are other markets, but we don’t use them.
The basic theory for Football Trader (System 1) is this:
We place the following two bets prior to kick-off:
BET 1 – Lay the outsider to win the match
(Bet that the team with the highest odds will lose)
This makes sense; we are betting on the most likely outcome; therefore there is
a pretty good chance this will happen.
BET 2 – Lay the favourite to score first
(Bet that the favourite team will not score first)
This might not make sense as the favourite is most likely to score first; however,
we must bet against them as an insurance in case BET 1 does not go to plan.
9

9.
Football Trader
Now sit back and watch the match.
If the favourite team score first you will automatically lose your money on BET 2.
However the odds for BET 1 will now have shot up; therefore you either back
the outsider to win the game, leaving you with a guaranteed small profit, or you
can wait to see if the favourites score again or go on to win the match, pushing
the price out even further, hence increasing your profit.
(Later, I will explain about what stakes to use and the calculations to be made,
using real examples.)
If the outsiders score first you will automatically win BET 2. You now have a
couple of options. You could:
a) back the outsider to win at shorter odds so that you settle for a small loss
on BET 1 but still take a small profit from BET 2. (You may make a small
overall loss or break even when doing this.)
b) wait to see if the favourites score an equaliser, which has a good chance of
happening and usually does, as they are the better of the two teams.
This will give you much higher profits because you take the profit from
BET 2 and also make a profit from BET 1.
Obviously your decisions depend on how much time is left in the match. If there
is an early goal by the outsiders, there is plenty of time left for the favourites to
score. If there is a goal towards the end of the game, the odds will change more
dramatically.
If the score is still 0-0 by the 75
th
minute, you must reverse both your trades.
At least one will make a profit, but usually you will make a good profit on both
of your trades. (This requirement applies only to System 1.)
This is just a brief description of the system, please read the rest of the e-book
for a more detailed explanation using real examples; these cover everything
from staking to correct timing, in a step-by-step guide.
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10.
Football Trader
Example 1
Arsenal v Newcastle
The first example I am going to show you is a match between Arsenal v
Newcastle. This was a regular Sunday afternoon game. Don’t worry if it looks
confusing to begin with, everything will be explained.
Let’s take a look at the two markets below prior to Kick Off.
Remember we are only looking at two markets, Match Odds and Next Goal.
These can be found on the left-hand side of the Betfair screen.
Match Odds
As you can see, Arsenal are clear favourites to win the match, since their price
is much shorter than for Newcastle to win or for the game to finish in a draw.
11

11.
Football Trader
Next Goal
As we can see from this screenshot, Arsenal are also clear favourites to
score the first goal.
The odds for them to score first are below 1.75 so this qualifies as a System 1
game. (The condition is satisfied.)
Tip - I recommend you check to see how much money has been
traded on the game before you trade. I always wait until at least
£100,000 has been matched. To see this figure, click on Rules at
the top right of the Betfair screen when you are on the Match
Odds market.
We now need to place the first two bets. For this example, I use £100 stakes to
keep things simple.
12

12.
Football Trader
BET 1
The first thing we must do is to lay the outsider.
I laid Newcastle for £100 and managed to get on at odds of 9. The amounts
under the team names show the effects of the bet. (Don’t be put off by the liability
figure under Newcastle, this will be reduced later.)
BET2
The next thing to do is to lay the favourite (Arsenal) to score the next goal.
I laid Arsenal for £100 at 1.52.
Now I can sit back and watch the game.
13

13.
Football Trader
Quick re-cap of steps
1) Identify a game where the favourite is lower than 1.75 to score first
2) Lay the outsider to win the match
3) Lay the favourite to score first
I have used £100 stakes for both bets. I don’t always do this but for this example
it makes things easier to explain. You must understand that BET 2, where I laid
Arsenal to score first, is an insurance wager. If Newcastle were to score first,
their odds would drop, leaving us with a potential loss on BET 1. However I
would automatically win £100 from BET 2; this helps to recover any losses I may
face. I would then reverse the trade for BET 1 to minimise my loss as much as I
could. This is done by backing the outsider to win for the same amount as the
lay bet.
With my two bets placed I am hoping for the most likely outcome, which is
Arsenal to win.
75
th
minute rule
Before the game starts you must be aware of this rule: reverse all
trades by the 75th minute. The reason for this is that the odds start to
change dramatically after this time. If you have not settled your trade
by this time you are exposing yourself to higher risks.
Note that this requirement applies only to System 1.
We are now ready to start trading on the game.
After just 19 minutes, Arsenal scored the first goal to make it 1-0 as expected.
This has dramatically changed the odds which are considerably different to when
I placed my bet prior to Kick Off.
I must now act on my trade.
14

14.
Football Trader
As you will see from the screenshot on the next page, the odds for Newcastle
to win have shot up to 38. This is a decimal odds, equivalent to 37/1. (Subtract
1 from the odds shown on Betfair to convert to a fractional odds.)
You must always think of the most likely outcome and try to keep your profits
on this side. Just by looking at the Betfair screen, it is obvious that the least
likely outcome is a Newcastle win. And the most likely is an Arsenal win.
If I simply back Newcastle for the same amount that I laid them for (£100) I
will be left in the following situation:
Arsenal win = £0
Newcastle win = £2900 (£3700 – the £800 from the lay bet)
Draw = £0
-£52 from BET 2
As you can see, if Newcastle win I win £2900, and I lose nothing if they don’t.
(Ignore the -£52 from BET 2 for a minute.)
Although this looks good as we now have a free bet to win £2900, this is unlikely
to happen and, as I said before, we must always look at the most likely
outcomes to win money.
So what do we do now?
As Newcastle’s odds are so high, there is no need to bet £100 on their
winning, especially when they don’t have much chance of doing so. All I need
to do here is to cover my liability on Newcastle just in case they do manage to
win the game; by doing this I won’t win anything if they do win but neither will I
lose anything.
So now I must calculate how much I need to bet to cover my liability of £800 from
BET 1.
To do this I simply take the current odds on offer, which is 38; I need to convert
this to a fraction simply by subtracting 1, which gives us 37/1.
15

15.
Football Trader
I then take my liability of £800 from BET 1 and add the loss from BET 2 (-£52
because Arsenal scored first)
£800 + £52 = £852 (potential loss)
Divide by
38 – 1 = 37 (the odds on offer)
= 852 ÷ 37 = 23
So to cover all of my losses I need to bet £23 on Newcastle winning at 38.
19 minutes Arsenal 1- 0 Newcastle
As you can now see, I have secured a guaranteed profit regardless of
the outcome after placing £23 on Newcastle winning.
16

16.
Football Trader
Conclusion
After just 19 minutes I have secured a guaranteed profit and can sit back and
watch the rest of the game without any worries.
Arsenal did go on to win the match 1-0 as expected. This means I won £76.50
from the Match Odds market and lost £52 from the Next Goal market, leaving me
with a total profit of £24.50.
You might not think this is a lot, but I have only used relatively small stakes, and
I kept the trading strategy very simple to help you understand. Now that you
have learnt the general concept of the system you can move on to more
advanced techniques. I have included a few more real-life examples that
illustrate exactly what I did to increase my profits.
Once you are confident with this trading technique you will find many other
ways of using it to make a profit. I recommend you read through the rest of the
book and keep reading it until you understand everything.
Another useful tip is to just watch an in-running game on Betfair; watch to see
how the odds change and at what times during the game. You will soon see
patterns emerging. This will give you a better understanding of the market
and improve your ability to anticipate when trading.
17

17.
Football Trader
Example 2
Watford v Liverpool
This time I am using slightly higher stakes and changing them around a little
to increase my profits.
I laid Watford for £200 at 5 (Match Odds). (BET 1)
I laid Liverpool to score the next goal for £150 at 1.74. (BET 2)
(I laid Liverpool for less than I did Watford; this would increase my profit should
Liverpool score first.)
18

18.
Football Trader
Half Time - Match Odds (BET 1)
As there have been no goals, the odds for our trade have risen from 5 to 5.4
because there is less chance of the event happening. So we now have an
opportunity to arb our trade and settle for a small guaranteed profit at this stage.
However I have decided to let the trade run until a goal is scored or I reach
the 75th minute.
If I were to arb now I would back Watford for £185, (less than I laid them)
leaving me in the following situation.
Watford win = £14 profit
Liverpool win = £15 profit
Draw = £15 profit.
Arbing is described in more detail later.
So I have a guaranteed profit of at least £14. I can now do the same with my
other bet (BET 2).
19

19.
Football Trader
Half Time - Next Goal (BET 2)
The odds for Liverpool to score the next goal have risen from 1.74 to 1.9.
(you would probably get matched at 1.92 quite easily).
If I were to arb now, I would back Liverpool to score the next goal for £135 at
1.92, which would leave me in the following situation:
Watford score first = £15 profit
Liverpool score first = £13.20 profit
No Goal = £15 profit
Again another guaranteed profit, this time for at least £12.
So, by settling our trades at Half Time, we can guarantee at least
£27.20 profit.
Not bad for 45 minutes work and with no goals. It is entirely up to you if you want
to arb at Half Time or carry on until the 75th minute. I make my decision
depending on the situation. If Watford don’t look like scoring I will carry on; if
Watford are dominating the game and look threatening I will arb at Half Time.
30% of games are 0-0 at half time.
So I have decided to leave my trade and wait to see if anything happens.
20

20.
Football Trader
The 75
th
minute has arrived and still no goal, so it is time to settle up and arb
my trade for a profit.
I managed to back Watford at 6.8 for £145 to secure a guaranteed profit.
Why back them for £145?
Without confusing you with formulas, the easy way to work out your arb stake is
simply to enter the same amount you laid Watford for originally (£200) but this
time at the new (back) odds of 6.8. Ideally we would like to guarantee ourselves
the same profit regardless of the result. When backing at a higher price than you
laid at, you always reduce the stake, so we need to bet less than £200. Simply
enter any amount you like and then adjust it until you feel happy. Betfair will
show your potential profit every time you enter a stake.
Here is an example:
The pink is my original lay bet (BET 1).
The blue is my new back bet to arb the trade.
I have entered £175 as a rough guess. As you can see, as things stand, if
Watford win, we would win £1015 but lose £800 from BET 1, which equals £215
profit. If they lose, we will win £200 from BET 1 and lose £175 from our new
bet, which equals £25 profit.
Watford win = £215
Watford lose = £25
These figures are not very similar; I would prefer more profit if Watford lose. So
we simply change the figure from £175 to something lower.
21

21.
Football Trader
I have now entered £145, which gives me £841 - £800 = £41 if Watford win.
If Watford lose, I win £200 from BET 1 less £145 = £55.
Backing Watford at £145 now leaves me in the following situation:
Watford win = £41 profit
Liverpool win = £55 profit
Draw = £55 profit
So I have arbed my trade for BET1 for a guaranteed profit of at least £41. I must
now do the same with BET 2.
When arbing your trade it is simply a matter of trial and error. Simply enter any
amount and make adjustments until the difference between the two profit
figures are similar to the difference between the two stake figures.
However, if you prefer to use formulas, the arb stake can be worked out to give
exactly the same profit regardless of the outcome using this formula:
Back Stake = Lay Stake x (Lay Odds ÷ Back Odds)
In our example, we have Back Stake = £200 x 5 ÷ 6.8 = £147.06, which will give
a profit of £52.94 regardless of the outcome. You can see how close our figure of
£145 was. You can do the calculation very quickly on a calculator.
Alternatively, you can use one of several arbing calculators on the Internet;
here are a couple of URLs:
http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/SimpleArb.asp
http://www.chromaweb.com/bets/calculator.cfm
22

22.
Football Trader
I must now settle BET 2. Previously I laid Liverpool to score first at 1.74. I
must now back Liverpool to score first.
I have now backed Liverpool to score the next goal for £100 at 2.7.
This has now guaranteed me £59 if they do score first and £50 if they don’t.
Great! All done. I have arbed both trades from BET 1 and BET 2 and can now sit
back and enjoy the remainder of the game.
The match finished Watford 0 – 1 Liverpool with a 77th minute goal.
Won £55 from BET 1
Won £59 from BET 2
Total Profit = £114
Another successful trade, this time without any goals; it just shows how
powerful this method is.
Remember, 30% of games are 0-0 at half time and, as you know, arbing at Half
Time can make a decent profit.
23

23.
Football Trader
Example 3
Chelsea v Man City
Chelsea are clear favourites and their odds to score the next goal are 1.3, which
qualifies this as a System 1 match.
I have only used £50 stakes this time, as the odds for Man City are quite high.
I managed to lay them at 13.5 for £50 (liability £625).
Chelsea are clearly favourites to win the match and to score the first goal.
I have laid Chelsea to score the next goal for £50 at 1.3 (Liability £15).
I have now placed my bets and can sit back and watch the game.
24

24.
Football Trader
After 30 minutes there are no goals and very little action; in fact I don’t think there
has been a single shot on goal. The odds for Man City have shortened slightly
and the odds for Chelsea to score the next goal have risen. At this stage I can
not really arb for a profit.
Half Time
There is not much difference at Half Time, as you can see from the screenshots
below:
Match Odds
Next Goal
Again not much room for profit so I will let the trade run until either there is a goal
or 75 minutes have passed.
25

25.
Football Trader
75th minute - Match Odds
As you can see I have reached the 75
th
minute and there have been no goals,
therefore I have to reverse my trade. The price for Man City has not risen and is
actually shorter at 12.5, so I can’t guarantee a profit as the price has gone
against me.
So what we must do in this situation is to back Man City for the same price we
laid them for (£50). So I back Man City for £50 at 12.5 to leave me with a loss of
£50 if Man City win and break even if they do not win. This makes sense as Man
City are less likely to win anyway.
If you have to reverse a trade when the price has gone against you, always use
the same stake as you did originally, as in the example above. I laid at 13.5 for
£50, and had to back at 12.5 which is lower, so I simply use the same stake
(£50).
26

26.
Football Trader
75th minute - Next Goal
The price for Chelsea to score the next goal has risen to 2.16; therefore I have
the chance to arb for a guaranteed profit. I backed them at 2.16 for £30 which
left me about £20 profit regardless of what happens.
The game finished Chelsea 0 – 0 Man City, which meant that I broke even on the
Match Odds market and was £20 up from the Next Goal market.
Draw = £0.00
No goal = £20
Total profit = £20
Another successful trade using only small stakes of £50. The point I am trying to
get across with this example is that if one of your trades goes against you, you
still have a good chance of not losing anything. Man City’s odds shortened,
which went against us, but for us to make a loss, Man City would have had to win
the game, and there wasn’t much chance of that happening.
27

27.
Football Trader
Example 4
Man City V Man Utd
This time I have used £100 stakes for both BET 1 and BET 2. I have laid Man
City for £100 at 5.9 to win the match; I have also laid Man Utd to score the
next goal at 1.65 for £100 (£65 Liability).
Prior to Kick Off – Match Odds
Prior to Kick Off – Next Goal
I have placed my bets and now I sit back and watch the game.
Half Time score is 0-0. I could arb the trade at this stage but Man City’s odds
have not drifted, therefore I have decided to wait a while.
28

28.
Football Trader
After 68mins Man Utd scores the first goal and I now have to settle the trade.
As there are only 22 minutes left, Man City’s odds have risen to 50, which
gives us a great chance to make a profit. I arbed my trade at this point, backing
Man City for £12 at 50 to give me £588 if they win, minus £490 liability from the
original bet, equals £98 profit.
If Man City lose or draw, I win £100 from the original BET 1, minus £12 from the
new bet, equals £88 profit.
(The reason I have backed Man City for £12 is because this is a sufficient
amount to cover my liability and make a good profit if they win or draw. As their
odds are 50, it only costs me £2 to make £100.)
Man City 0 – 1 Man Utd
As you can see I have made a guaranteed profit on the Match Odds market.
The game finished Man City 0 – 2 Man Utd
Won £88 from BET 1
Lost -£65 from BET 2
Total profit = £23 Profit
29

29.
Football Trader
When things go against you
Sometimes your trade will not go as planned; for example, the team that you
have laid to win the match will score first and their odds will shorten, leaving
you with a potential loss. So what do you do?
This depends on several factors and you will have to use your judgement to
decide what is best.
Let’s take the last example I showed you between Man City and Man Utd. If
Man City were to score first we could be in trouble. The first thing to take into
account is:
How much of the game is left?
The more time there is remaining, the more chance Man Utd have of
equalizing. If Man City score before 25 minutes, I would usually wait until Man
Utd score, or you reach the 75th minute.
How is the game going?
This is why I recommend you watch the match whilst trading on it; when a trade
goes against you, you must make judgements. If Man City are playing well, have
had a few opportunities and are leading 1-0, I would suggest you reverse your
trade to favour Man City.
If Man City have only had one shot and scored, and Man Utd have had a few
shots and are playing much better, I would suggest waiting a while to see if
they equalize, which they probably will.
Which type of game is it?
It is important to understand what kind of match you are trading on. Is it a
friendly, a cup final, a top-of-the-table clash, a relegation clash, etc., etc.?
The following section describes the different types of games and what they mean
to us when trading.
30

30.
Football Trader
Different types of matches
Here are details of the different games you will encounter. Study this list a few
times until it is in your head; you will probably know most of this anyway but
please don’t skip this section.
Premiership game: top v middle or bottom teams
The most common type of game you will be trading on is a Premiership match
that involves a top-of-the-table team against one at the bottom of the table. For
example, Liverpool v Bolton, Arsenal v Everton, Newcastle v Wigan.
This is the type of game you will be trading in, as the favourite is likely to have
odds lower than 1.75 to score first. You should expect the odds to reflect the
outcome when trading in these games.
This is probably one of the best types of game to trade in. Expect the favourite to
score first and to win the game.
Premiership game between two average teams
This is another common type of match that you will see quite regularly. For
example, Newcastle v Everton, Spurs v Aston Villa, Man City v Blackburn.
You should be looking at a close game, with maybe few goals and a likely draw.
You will not be able to trade on these games using System 1 as the odds for
both teams will be about the same; therefore System 1 will not qualify. However,
this kind of game is ideal for System 2, which will be explained later.
English Championship, Leagues 1 and 2
Unlike the Premiership, the lower leagues do not have superior teams like
Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd, who dominate. The leagues are much more
open and can be more difficult to predict. You can expect a lot of varied results
such as lower-positioned teams beating the higher teams.
When trading in this type of game you should always be cautious and be
ready for any sudden changes that may happen.
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Football Trader
Local derbys
This is where two local teams play each other. It is important to understand that
this kind of game is unlike a normal game. When two local teams meet you
should expect a close game with not many goals. Both sides are under
immense pressure to please their fans and no one wants to lose. There will
probably be a few bookings and sending-offs.
Expect low-scoring games and plenty of draws. If a team scores I would
recommend reversing your trade straight away.
International games
There are two types of international matches:
1) Friendly – I normally stay away from international friendly games because
usually the players are not 100% committed, as they do not want to run
the risk of injury. Also, friendly games are used to test out new players
and strategies, etc. Therefore this type of game can be misleading.
2) Competitive match – This may be a tournament or qualifying game where
both teams must win. There is a lot of build-up to these games and the odds
are usually a true reflection of the outcome. I would treat this game as you
would a Premiership match, but be aware of the conditions when teams are
playing away; for example, Mexico v England. The climate will be much
hotter in Mexico and England will not be used to the conditions.
Cup games
With the FA Cup you will usually find plenty of opportunities to trade, as higher
teams play against teams much lower than themselves. The FA Cup can
produce a few shock results and I would suggest you are always prepared in
case something does not go as you planned.
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Football Trader
Other factors
An important factor to take into account is to determine what stage of the league
or cup the teams are currently at.
For example, if Aston Villa are 3rd from bottom with only a few games remaining,
they are going to be more determined than a team that are in mid position and
have nothing to play for.
If Man Utd are playing in the 3rd round of the FA cup against a non-league
team, are Man Utd going to play their reserve team?
There are many questions that you must ask yourself before a game and
the more you practice, the more aware you will become.
The next section relates to games that do not qualify as System 1 bets. I
recommend that you fully understand System 1 before moving on to System 2.
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System 2
This system works well when the two teams playing are closely matched. With
System 1, the favourite had to have odds lower than 1.75 to score the next goal.
However not all games are like this. You can use System 2 when the odds for
the favourite to score first are over 1.75.
Most of the time, both teams will have odds of around 2 to score the next goal;
this suggests a tight game where either side has a good chance of winning. As
this is the case you must take more care when trading using this strategy.
So the first thing to do is to check the odds in the Next Goal market.
If both teams are above 1.75 we can use System 2.
The theory behind System 2 is that the home team has a slight advantage over
the away team. Although the odds for both teams to score first and to win the
game are the same, there is usually more chance of the home side doing so.
Sometimes the odds for the away team can be slightly shorter than the home
team. If this is the case we must go with the most likely outcome as I mentioned
before. Which would be to favour the away team, as their odds are shorter, which
represents a better chance of winning.
42% of home teams win on average.
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Football Trader
In System 2, we only use the Match Odds market on Betfair.
I recommend you only use this system once you are confident with
trading football matches and you are confident using System 1.
1) BET 1 The first step is to lay the outsider (or away team if the
odds are the same)
2) BET 2 The second step is to lay the draw
So basically we are betting that the outsider will not win. We are also betting that
it will not be a draw. If the favourite team wins, which is most likely to happen,
we win both bets. If it’s a draw, we still win BET 1 but lose BET 2. If the outsiders
win, we lose BET 1 but win BET 2.
There are many different opportunities that arise when using this trade. The
difference between System 1 and System 2 is that the odds when using System
1 always move in your favour if there are no goals; however, the odds using
System 2 don’t. If there are no goals, the odds for BET 1 will increase and
the odds for BET 2 will shorten. This is why we must be careful when using
this trade.
By applying this method we are hoping that the favourite team will score first so
that we can arb our trade for a guaranteed profit. If there are no goals we can
break even or make a small profit. If the outsiders score first we are left in a
negative situation which would require using retrieval strategies. I explain more
about this later. If the outsider does score first their odds will shorten which is
not a good sign for us; however the odds for the draw will increase, giving us the
chance to arb for a profit.
Ideally this is how you should approach the game. (Always remember the
golden rule: ‘Always side with the most likely outcome at the time’)
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Football Trader
Strategy
If the game proceeds with little action and no goals, the most likely outcome
would be the draw, so you must reverse your trade by backing the draw at the
available odds. Don’t worry if you have to suffer a small loss.
Now that you have completed your trade on the draw (BET 2) you must now let
BET 1 run until the odds have risen enough to make a profit. There is a pretty
good chance that this will happen, because the game doesn’t look like
producing goals, and the outsider has less chance of scoring anyway. The time
at which you reverse BET 2 (the draw) is entirely up to you. I usually reverse at
30 minutes if the game is poor and I feel no one is going to score for a while. I
then wait until Half Time to arb my other trade (BET 1).
Obviously, the longer you leave it the shorter the draw price will become.
If you reverse the draw trade (BET 2) and then the outsiders score, you will be
faced with an all-round potential loss. You now have to decide whether to wait
and hope that the favourites equalize, or apply a different strategy to recover
your losses. (I will be demonstrating such strategies in the examples.) The
other scenario you may be faced with is that the outsider scores first. If this
happens their price will shorten, however the draw price will not rise that much.
Therefore you will not be able to secure a profit. So what do you do?
Apply the golden rule and side with the most likely outcome at the time, which
is for the outsider to win. So we must follow the same process I have just
explained, except that this time you reverse the trade for BET 1 and back the
outsider to settle for a loss, and then wait until the draw price rises to an
acceptable amount where you can arb BET 2.
It may sound confusing to begin with but it is quite simple.
Always remember the golden rule – side with the most likely outcome at the time.
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Football Trader
Here is a quick example:
Let’s say there is a game between Arsenal v Man Utd.
1) Man Utd are the outsiders so we lay them (BET 1)
2) We also lay the draw (BET 2 )
Suppose that after 30 minutes of the game, there have not been many shots and
neither team look like scoring. This tells us that the most likely outcome as things
stand would be a draw. The price for the draw will keep shortening as the game
goes on, and we don’t want this to happen as we have already laid it at a higher
price. We decide to get out now for a small loss before it gets any shorter. So we
reverse the draw lay (BET 2).
We now wait until the price for Man Utd (BET 1) rises to give us a profit.
Now let’s say the game started and there was plenty of action and Man Utd
scored a goal. If the goal was before Half Time I would recommend you wait, as
the prices will stay quite static until the 75th minute or later. If it is after Half
Time, we must reverse our trade for BET 1 and back them before their price
shortens even more. (I usually back them for twice the amount I laid them for to
reduce my losses if they were to win). We now wait until the draw odds increase
to give us a profit. If the outsiders do score first you will find it very difficult to
come out of the game with a profit because the draw price will not actually move
very much unless Man Utd score a second goal.
If Arsenal were to score first (the most likely possibility) we would be able to
arb both trades (BET 1 and BET 2 ) for a guaranteed profit.
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Football Trader
Example 1
Sheff Utd v Aston Villa
As you can see I have applied BET 1 and BET 2.
BET 1 - I have laid the outsider (Sheff Utd) at 3.4 for £100 (£240 liability)
BET 2 - I have laid the draw at 3.4 for £100 (£240 Liability)
I am now in the following situation:
Sheff Utd win = -£140
Aston Villa win = £200
Draw = -£140
Basically you are betting on Aston Villa winning.
If you are only used to betting on horses, a quick word of explanation may
be welcome here. When you lay Sheff Utd for £100, the other two outcomes
are affected as well. So the position after BET 1 only is:
Sheff Utd win = -£240
Aston Villa win = £100
Draw = £100
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Football Trader
Similarly, BET 2, the lay on the draw for £100, affects all three outcomes:
Sheff Utd win = £100
Aston Villa win = £100
Draw = -£240
The final position is arrived at by adding these two sets of results.
30 minutes
No goals after 30 minutes but Sheff Utd are playing well and the price for
the draw has shortened slightly.
There have been lots of opportunities and both teams look like scoring, so I
decide to wait a while, as I am confident there will be at least one goal in
this game.
Just after Half Time, Aston Villa score the first goal; I must now arb my trade.
As the trade has gone in my favour there is no need to arb both trades; I can
simply place one bet to cover all angles. As things stand we win £200 if Aston
Villa win, and lose £140 if they do not win. Now that they have scored, their
odds have shortened dramatically.
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Football Trader
All you need to do is to see if you can wipe out your liability without betting more
than £200 (which is your current profit). To do this, simply click the available
odds to lay Aston Villa, which are 1.45, and type in the amount you currently
stand to lose, which is £140. This will then show you how much you need to bet
to win back your £140.
By laying Aston Villa for £140 at 1.45 it will cost us £63 off our current profit
of £200. This would leave us in the following situation:
Sheff Utd win = £0
Aston Villa win = £200 - £63 = £137
Draw = £0
Not bad really, we either win £137 or break even.
If you do not understand, don’t worry, read through it again a couple of times;
open your Betfair screen and type in the figures that I mentioned. It is all
relatively simple once you understand the concept.
I decided to bet more than £140 just in case Sheff Utd did win, or it was a
draw. This way I am guaranteed a profit all round. I recommend that you
always leave yourself with a small profit in case the losing team scores
and goes on to win the match.
As you can see below, I decided to Lay Aston Villa for £160, costing me £72.
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Football Trader
I am now left with £128 profit as it has cost me £72 to clear my liability and add a
small profit of £20 to Sheff Utd, and to the draw. (£200 original profit minus £72
to cover liability = £128.)
I am now left with a guaranteed profit, and there is a good chance of making
£128 as Aston Villa are winning.
Unfortunately Sheff Utd turned the game around and won 3-1. I still made a
profit of £20 however.
Quick re-cap
Laid the outsider (Sheff Utd)
Laid the draw
Left with £200 if Aston Villa win and -£140 if they do not win.
Aston Villa score
Reverse the trade to wipe out our potential loss of -£140 + another £20 just
in case Aston Villa do not win.
Left with:
Sheff Utd = £20
Aston Villa = £128
Draw = £20
Unfortunately Sheff Utd go on to win the game, but we still pick up £20 profit.
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Football Trader
Example 2
Arsenal V Man Utd
A tight game on paper with Arsenal slight favourites at 2.5. Following the system,
I have laid Man Utd for £100 at 3.45 as they are the outsiders. I have also
laid the draw for £100 at 3.25.
As you can see I currently have £200 profit on Arsenal, -£145 on Man Utd and
-£125 on the draw. I now sit back and watch the game.
After just 8 minutes Arsenal score and go 1-0 up. This gives me a chance to
arb my trades for a profit. (Remember you have £200 to spend on recovering
your liability). I decided to back Man Utd for £40 and back the draw for £70.
This leaves me with roughly the same profit whatever the result.
(Remember that when arbing a trade, enter a random figure and then adjust
it until the profits are about the same.)
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Football Trader
Here is the resulting position:
That’s it, all done!!
As you can see, I am left in this situation:
Arsenal win = £90.11
Man Utd win = £89.59
Draw = £79.30
You would have been pleased to trade this game as I was done and dusted after
8 minutes with a guaranteed profit of at least £79.30. I can now sit and enjoy
watching the rest of the match.
Surprisingly the score finished Arsenal 2 - 4 Man Utd. I still managed to take
an easy £89.59 from the game. Easy money.
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Football Trader
When things go wrong and the trade goes against you
Although you will win on most occasions, unfortunately there are times when a
trade will go against you and you face a potential loss. It is very important that
you understand the retrieval strategies to use when things do go wrong. Our
main aim is to reduce our loss as much as possible and leave the match
without damaging our bank.
Before I take you through the steps to retrieve your losses, have a look at this
next example where the trade goes against us.
Liverpool V Man Utd
Liverpool were favourites to win the game prior to Kick Off, so I laid Man Utd
(BET 1) and I laid the draw (BET 2).
I have laid Man Utd for £100 at 3.25 as they are the outsiders.
I have laid the draw for £100 at 3.2.
Ideally we want Liverpool to score the first goal. If Man Utd score first their
price will shorten, which is not good for us.
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Football Trader
After 21 minutes Man Utd score the first goal and their price has shortened
to 1.75, which is not good news as we want it to be higher than 3.25 to make
a profit.
What to do?
Remember the golden rule! (Always side with the most likely outcome at
the time.)
As things stand the most likely outcomes in order are:
1) Man Utd win
2) Draw
3) Liverpool win
How do we know this? Simply look at the odds to win the match.
1) Man Utd are 1.75
2) Draw is 3.7
3) Liverpool are 6
Man Utd has the shortest odds therefore they have the best chance of winning.
The draw has the second best odds therefore it is the second most
likely outcome.
But as things stand my £200 profit is on the least likely outcome (Liverpool win),
and my biggest loss is on Man Utd win (which is the most likely outcome).
1) Liverpool win = £200
2) Draw = -£120
3) Man Utd win = -£125
As you can see, this table does not match with the one above. I am not
happy with this situation and set about changing it.
Remember you have £200 to spend to reduce your liability as this is your profit
figure under Liverpool – spend wisely.
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Football Trader
Here’s what I did
Basically I wanted Liverpool to score first. They didn’t, so I turned things
around by putting a profit on Man Utd winning and a loss on Liverpool winning
as they are currently losing the match.
The first thing I did was to spend all of my £200 profit on laying Liverpool. So I
laid Liverpool for £200 liability at odds of 6, which added £40 to Man Utd and
the draw.
This left me in the following situation:
1) Liverpool win = £0
2) Draw = -£80
3) Man Utd win = -£85
As you can see, I cannot make a profit at this stage and the golden rule does not
match. The most likely outcome is a Man Utd win but this is my highest loss (-
£85).
I must now turn things around so that my profit/loss favours the most
likely outcomes.
So the next thing to do is to lay Liverpool again at 6 as they are least likely to win.
I decided on £100 liability to add another £20 on both Man Utd and the draw.
This left me in the following situation:
1) Draw = -£60
2) Man Utd win = -£65
3) Liverpool win = -£100
I am still not happy with the current situation as I am still facing a guaranteed
loss. I need my most likely outcome, which is Man Utd, to show me a profit.
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Football Trader
So the next thing I did was to back Man Utd for £100 at 1.75 to leave me with
this situation:
I now have my golden rule in line with my profit/loss figures.
As things stand the most likely outcomes in order are:
1) Man Utd win
2) Draw
3) Liverpool win
My profit/loss figures are also in the same order:
1) Man Utd win = £10
2) Draw = -£130
3) Liverpool win = -£200
As you can see I have turned things around so that I now have a liability of
-£200 on Liverpool (because this is the least likely outcome).
I have -£130 on the draw as this is the second most likely outcome.
I have £10 on Man Utd as this is the most likely outcome.
For me to lose money on this game Liverpool need to win or draw. Although
this situation is not ideal, as we are facing a potential loss, it is much better than
before. We could have lost £125 on Man Utd, but now we win £10 on Man Utd.
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Football Trader
To reduce your liability even more you could consider using your £10 profit to
back the draw as the price increases. Unfortunately the draw price did not
increase during this game until around the 80th minute. So I decided to leave
things as they were.
Man Utd went on to win the game 1-0 and I took a £10 profit from the game.
Here is a quick re-cap on how to deal with a trade that goes against you.
1) Lay the team that is losing for the same amount you have on them as
potential profit. For example, in this match, lay Liverpool for £200 (you
must remember that when laying the £200, you must enter this figure
as your liability, not how much you stand to win).
2) Lay Liverpool again as they are least likely to win. This time for half of the
original profit figure (£200). So lay £100.
3) Check the golden rule and see if the most likely outcomes match with
your current profit/loss figures.
4) Back the most likely outcome for £100, which is Man Utd winning.
5) Check the golden rule.
Please read the last section again if you are unsure about anything – this is very
important.
Always remember the golden rule; as long as you have this in place you will be
OK.
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48.
Conclusion
You have now read the strategies that I use to make money on live football
games; I believe this to be the most reliable and easiest way to profit from the
betting exchanges. I recommend that you use small stakes to begin with until you
have built your confidence and are able to react to any situation without having to
pick up this book.
By visiting Betfair, you will be able to see what live games are being played on
that day. I recommend that you check every morning and make a note of the
games and the times.
Unlike other betting guides, this is not a set system. Although there are rules to
follow, you must make judgements and use various strategies at different times.
If you can learn to adjust you will become a successful trader; confidence and
ability will come with experience. I recommend that you watch a few live games
and keep a note of the price movements on Betfair. Soon you will know exactly
how the prices will change when there is a goal, or no goal for that matter. Once
you can easily understand what is happening and can calculate your arbing stakes
within a few seconds, you are ready to start trading for real money.
Take your time, learn the strategy and apply the rules, prepare well and
have confidence. If you can do this you are well on your way.
Good luck!
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49
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