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Foresight & Innovation
INNOPROM 2011 
Adam Gordon, M.S., MBA 
adam.gordon@futuresavvy.net 

Tamara Carleton, PhD 
Bill Cockayne, PhD 
Stanford University

Introduction

o Stanford Foresight & Innovation Group

o Strategic Foresight, Houston

o INSEAD

o Future Savvy: Quality in Foresight

o Forbes: “Management By Looking Ahead”

o South Africa – Innovation – Emerging Markets BRICSA

2

Paul Saffo on academics vs. futurists…

3

Foresight & Innovation at Stanford:
Benefits of the Approach

o Acknowledge change, threats, opportunities of the
future. Engage and stimulate thinking about the
future.

o Connects long-term perspectives with innovation
actions today. Overcome the gap between big idea
and on-the-ground execution

o Built to work in the style of today’s collaborative,
team-based approach to projects in the workplace

4

Seeing Future Opportunities (Threats)

Getting Ahead of Change

That look of surprise

Foresight Tools Focused on Action

© 2011 | W Cockayne & T Carleton
For Workshop Participants Only
9

Three Phases to Build Foresight

Perspective Opportunity Solution

10

Phase I: Perspective


Develop a broad and historical perspective about an area of interest
relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in
order to look forward.

o What is the bigger context for the sector/industry you are interested in?
o What historical events, industry actions, and societal movements can be
identiﬁed as drivers of today's reality?
o When reviewing previous inventions and opportunities, what similarities in
timing and adoption exist today?

11

Phase II: Opportunity


Develop an ability to see growth opportunities that exist today and
extend into the future. Today’s opportunities become tomorrows
innovations.

o What themes are emerging that might shape or inﬂuence possible
opportunities in the future?
o Which major changes about people over time, such as population movements
and generational shifts, can we identify and understand that affect future
changes?
o What might you expect from future users and customers?

12

Phase III: Solution


Define the questions that exist along different paths to innovation.
Prototype new solutions are specific to your industry, customers,
organization, and individual skills.

o How can you determine the multiple paths possible to get from today to
tomorrow's future innovation?
o Looking at what you've learned, how long does each step take along the
various paths?
o What are the critical points for change, and which ones are in your control?

13


The first phase is to develop historical perspective about an area of interest
relevant to the future you want to live in. You must look back first in order to look
forward.

Context Maps Progression Curves Janus Cones
Context Mapping is a mapping Progression Curves are a Janus Cones is a foresight tool
technique for capturing emergent graphical representation that for looking backwards and
conversation themes in complex explains the progression of forwards in time to identify the
problems to show integrated changes in terms of timing of historical events and
context.
technological, social, and related how timing affects potential
ﬁlters.
future events.

15

16

Progression Curves
Progression Curves explain the progression of changes in terms of
technological, social, and related filters.

17

Common Technology & Social Curves

18

Janus Cones
Janus Cones is a foresight tool for looking backwards and forwards in
time to identify the timing of historical events and how these timings
affect potential future events.

19

1946:
Stanford
The Development of Silicon Valley
Research
Institute 1958: [Sputnik] was a
(SRI) wakeup call, and America
founded
answered it. – John Kao 2009: During a recession,
in Innovation Nation, 2008
Silicon Valley doesn t curl up
1952: IBM
into a fetal position and pout.
opened its San 1968:
Jose R&D office
It continues to take chances,
Engelbart 1972: Kleiner throwing sparks at kindling,
1951: Stanford demo Perkins 1992: Apple knowing that something will
Caufield & 1984: closes Fremont
Industrial Park 1964: UC catch fire. It s the U.S.
Byers NUMMI plant plant
established (Varian Berkeley starts economy s secret weapon. "
founded
opened 1992: TiE (The
Associates, GE, its study abroad – Portfolio, 2/09
and Kodak sign Indus Entrepre- 2000: SFO
program 1987: neurs) founded
opened new
first leases)
1978: Silicon
Valley SEMANTECH
1958: Stanford 1990: San Jose international
1957: Manufacturing founded
starts its study airport expanded terminal
2008: 1/3 of Stanford
Stanford Group founded
abroad program Terminal A
MBA 1982: Silicon MBA students (and
students 1958: 1976: Valley Bank 1994: cases) are international
start the NASA Apple founded Netscape,
2001: Accel 2005: Sequoia
Intern l set ups founded Yahoo!
1968: Partners Capital
Business research founded
Intel launched first launched first
Club facility
founded EU fund China fund
1939: 1958:
HP Fairchild
founded founded

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Today

20

21

Development of Key Industries in S.Valley

22


The second phase helps you develop an ability to see growth opportunities that
exist today and extend into the future. Today s opportunities become
tomorrow s innovations.

Demographics Future Users Futuretelling
Demographics is a research method Future Users explores the potential Futuretelling are short and
to identify and track population future of a chosen demographic dramatic performances that
changes within a speciﬁc group over through the comparative analysis illustrate a particular user need
time in order to understand between similar groups over time.
as a scene from the future.
impending changes on the This is active storytelling at its
workforce, life stages, future best.
markets, and other variables.

24

Demographics in 20 Years (2028)
Demographics is a
U.S.  research method to
identify and track
population growth
within a specific group
over time in order to
China  understand impending
changes on the
workforce, life stages,
future markets, and
other variables.

India 

25

Future Users
Future Users explores the potential future of a customer demographic
through the comparison of changes to similar groups over time.

Past Today Tomorrow

26

Jimmie  Jimmie 
@ 21  @ 31 

Tommie  Tommie  Tommie  
@11   @ 21  @31  

27

Describing a future user
based on a real person today

A future persona describes a sample user (or customer
segment) you want to target, based on current real
evidence of similar target today

o Demographics – age, household income, religion, etc.
o Interests – family details, hobbies, etc.
o Aspirations – career goals, personal dreams, etc.
o Beliefs – attitudes, values, etc.
o Behaviors – shopping habits, technology usage, etc.
o Other details – inﬂuencers, segment category, etc.

28

Comparing Managers in India
Nikhil
Similarities
age 34
 Both married and have children
 Purchased apartment after marriage
 Commute using chauffeur-driven car
 Domestic help takes care of sundry
shopping, cleaning and cooking
 Family owns a farmhouse
 Shop foreign brand apparel in nearby
malls
Siddhartha Sid
Differences
age 34
 Nikhil changed jobs, Sid rose to "
top position in father s company
 Nikhil lives separately, Sid lives with parents
 Farmhouse is a novelty for Sid, "
an ancestral land for Nikhil

1996 2008 2020
29

Futuretelling
Futuretelling are short and dramatic performances that illustrate a
particular population need or possible scene from the future.

30


The third phase seeks to define the questions that exist along different paths to
innovation. Innovative solutions are specific to your industry, customers,
organization, and individual skills.

White Spots Change Paths Paper Mockups
White Spots are a strategic tool for Change Paths are a set of data- Paper mockups in three-
studying the future opportunity space driven narratives exploring different dimensions (3D) are an
deﬁned by two salient issues. paths and key decision points advanced design method to
Opportunities can be discovered in toward possible future innovations.
prototype and communicate a
the white spots , or empty areas.
new concept using paper and
inexpensive materials. A speciﬁc
iteration is the Dark Horse
Prototype.
32

White Spots
White Spots are a strategic tool for studying the future opportunity
space defined by two salient issues. Opportunities can be discovered in
the white spots , or empty areas.

33

34

Change Paths
Change Paths are a set of data-driven narratives exploring different
paths and key decision points toward possible future innovations.

35

Change Paths

36

The Change Path to White Spots
With a future opportunity in mind, creating a set of data-
driven narratives helps to explore the Change Paths toward
possible solutions that are 2+ innovation cycles in the
future.

37

Paper Mockups
Paper mockups in three-dimensional (3D) are a design method to
prototype and communicate a new concept using paper and
inexpensive materials.

38

39


Context Maps

Janus
Cones

42


Future Users

Futuretelling
Demographics

43


White
Spots

Change Paths

3D Mockups

44

Taking Action Towards Future Innovation
Illustrative

45

Stanford Foresight & Innovation Network

Foresight and Innovation
Bill Cockayne, Tamara Carleton
http://foresight.stanford.edu
424 Panama Mall Stanford
University Stanford, California 94305

Adam Gordon
adam.gordon@futuresavvy.net
+44 790 6054848

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