An assessment of the Myanmar General elections, key players 2. Analysis on the general elections impact on Myanmar business community 3. When major initiatives will happen and why? 4. Now, 2015 and beyond, community organization and NGO: impact on pipeline, environmental regulations and labour dispute. 5. Ethnic Politics and hate speech issues impact offshore and onshore blocks in Myanmar 6. Different scenario in 2015 Myanmar general election

1. ANALYZING AND MANAGING
POLITICAL AND BUSINESS RISKS
IN MYANMAR
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.co
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Myanmar Oil and Gas conference

2. AGENDA
 1. An assessment of the Myanmar General elections, key players
 2. Analysis on the general elections impact on Myanmar business community
 3. When major initiatives will happen and why?
 4. Now, 2015 and beyond, community organization and NGO: impact on pipeline,
environmental regulations and labour dispute.
 5. Ethnic Politics and hate speech issues impact offshore and onshore blocks in
Myanmar
 6. Different scenario in 2015 Myanmar general election

3. THE KEY PLAYERS
 The Military
 USDP
 NLD
 Ethnic political parties

4. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 General Wai Lwin
 General Mya Tun Oo

5. USDP
 U Thein Sein – current president
 U Thura Shwe Mann – current speaker of the house
 U Htay Oo – Vice chairman of USDP

6. NLD
 Daw Aung San Suu Kyi

7. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Rakhine National Party
U Aung Thar Aung
 Shan Nationalities Democratic Party (white tiger)
Sai Ai Pao
 SNLD
 Khun Htun Oo

8. THE ELECTION
 USDP
 NLD
 The Military (25% and former General)
 Ethnic political parties

9. USDP
 West policy
 Party Congress (President and MPs)
 Rebuilding image
 Controversial Ministers, MPs

10. NLD
 NLD congress
 Lack of MPs for election BIG challenge
 The management committee
 Would like to choose Youth and Women

11. ETHNIC POLITICAL PARTIES
 Likely to win major vote in ethnic region
 Shan, Rahkine and Mon

12. THE MILITARY
 Senior General Min Aung Hlaing
 Recent visit
Last year – Korea, Japan
This year – Pakistan, Serbia, UAE
 Good relationship with Thai army
 Building diplomatic image
 Rebuild Myanmar army image during Kokant conflict

13. PERMANENT SECRETARY
www.moi.gov.mm

14. PERMANENT SECRETARY
 permanent secretaries will run the government
 During prepare for election and after the election

15. THE GOVERNMENT AFTER
ELECTION
 President
 Vice President
 Speaker of the house
 Commander in Chief
* [ One vice president as National Energy Planning committee ]

16. MAJOR INITIATIVES
 2015
 2016 – Very likely to become coalition government
USDP, NLD, ethnic parties
 2017 – Likely to prove new bills, effective government

17. INSTABILITY - INTERNAL
 Rise of Labor Union – example Zawtika project

18. INSTABILITY – EXTERNAL
 Arakan army current conflict with army
 Anti Muslim movement
 New tension in Kayah with KNPP

19. Photo from bnionline.net

20. IN RAKHINE
 Rakhine party and armed group interest
 2008 Constitution Appendix I and II changes
 Their resources for their region
 Their region with their leader as Chief Minister

21. WHAT THE GOVERNMENT IS
DOING
 Stability
 Electricity for Rakhine state
 Not accepting yet AA, TNLA, MNDAA in NCA

22. RECOMMENDATION
 Effective CSR
 Environmental
 Employee
 Emergency plan review
 External Communication (PR)

23. THANKS
 Q&A
Thet Aung Min Latt
Managing Director
Diamond Intelligence Co., Ltd
www.diamondconsultantgroup.com