1. THE IDEAL? FUTURE
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION (German team)
The politics lessons of the 12th class we designed future
scenarios for the European Union. In doing so, we started
from 3 possible developments:
Positive extreme scenario (most favourable future
development)
Negative extreme scenario (least favourable future
development)
Trend scenario (continuation of the current situation in
the future)
Here, we present some results:

2. Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 1
Positive scenario:
Turkey becomes a member of the European Union. The European
economy will be boosted by the new member.
No war in Europe and no economic crisis.
Better support for third-world countries.
Trend scenario:
Turkey is not accepted in the EU.
The third-world countries receive only minor support.
The economic situation becomes worse.
Negativ scenario:
The third World War breaks out. Use of nuclear weapons.
The economy collapses.

3. Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 2
Trend scenario:
The Copenhagen criteria will not change
(democracy, human rights, etc.).
If other countries want to join the EU, they have to
fulfill these criteria.
Crises come and go, but Europe will start over
again, because all countries support each other.
The success of the European Union depends on
the specific governments in the individual member
countries.

4. Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 3 - Negative scenario:
Turkey becomes a member of the European Union, but the integration
fails.
Despite all bailout funds, Italia, Spain and other economically troubled
countried won’t get back on their own feet. On the stock markets the
wild speculation will go on. Citizens suffer under the pressures of the
never ending economy crisis and the financial constraints. More and
more, they lose faith in democracy.
The €uro is losing massively in value. It comes to a severe inflation.
Due to the rapid acceptance of new members, the European Union
will lose its clean lines and structures. The political decision-making is
getting more complicated.
Due to the high unemployment rate, the young generation is suffering
more and more disorientation. Moreover, the ecucation systems are
weak and the young people can’t keep up with the rapid technological
progress. Out of frustration, the dislike of the other EU countries grows.

5. Negative scenario:
•The debt crisis will worsen.
•Some crisis countries be expelled from the EU.
•Other countries lose interest in joining the European
Union. They understand that the EU isn’t no longer able
to help them.
•The debt crisis will be passed on to EU citizens
through higher taxes and reductions of social security
contributions.
•Poverty leads to smuggling on a large scale.
Therefore, the border controls will be tightened.
•The European Union can´t no longer fulfill its original
objectives. Finally, it dissolves.
Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 4

6. Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 5
Negative scenario:
• Europe becomes a single country. The individual Member States cease
to exist.
• Nevertheless, Europe isn´t growing together. The language problems
are too overwhelming. Moreover, people lose their identity.
• Europe is sinking into heavy debt. Due to the bad economic situation
crime is getting worse, especially drug trafficking. Unemployment is
getting worse as well.

7. Negative scenario:
• If we fail to eliminate the political and economic disparities between
the Member States, Europe will fall apart.
• The European Union is not only stuck in a debt crisis, but also a crisis
of trust and democracy.
• Turkey's accession will lead mainly to the Islamisation of Europe.
Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 6

8. Europe / the European Union in 30
years:
Group 6
Europe / the European Union in 30
years:
Group 6
Europe / the European Union in 30 years:
Group 6
Negative scenario:
•The middle classes break away in the European countries. The
demographic change and the economic losses are responsible for
this development.
•The economically strong Turkey is accepted in the EU, to help the
economically always weaker becoming European Community.
•The European education and training systems are too weak to meet
the demands of the modern world.
•Germany and France fall out with each other, because they have
different views on the economic and social policy in Europe. Thus,
the core of the European Union will be destroyed.
… we hope very
much that the
future actually will
be better