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Similaire à Economic Outlook 2012: Shift Happens
Similaire à Economic Outlook 2012: Shift Happens (20)
Economic Outlook 2012: Shift Happens
- 1. SHIFT HAPPENSWorld Economic Outlook 2012 Ángel Cabrera Thunderbird School of Global Management @CabreraAngel
- 2. IMF September Forecast for 2012 Advanced economies +1.9% (-0.7% from June) Emerging economies +6.1% (-0.3% from June) World +4.0% (-0.5% from June)
- 3. IMF September Forecast for 2012 United States +1.8% (-0.9% from June) Euro Area +1.1% (-0.6% from June) Japan +2.3% (-0.6% from June)
- 4. Emerging Markets GDP Growth Average Real GDP per Capita Composition of World Real GDP W. Europe Asia Dev. Asia Emerging CEEMEA N.A. Latin America 2010-2030E CAGR $39T $73T $180T EM: 42% EM: 52% World 3.6% EM: 70% Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis report “Global Growth Generators,” February 2011. Note: Asia Developed is comprised of Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
- 5. Rise of Emerging Markets Trade Flows Exports/Imports EM Trade as a % of Total World Trade Emerging Markets Developed Markets 2009 2009 Source: UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Handbook of Statistics 2010.
- 6. (1) Calculated using purchase power parity exchange rates. Source: Citi Investment Research & Analysis report “Global Growth Generators,” February 2011 and Pricewaterhouse Coopers, “UK Economic Outlook,” November 2009.
- 7. G7 vs. E7 U.S., Japan, Germany, U.K., France, Italy and Canada China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey
- 8. G7 vs E7 Source: PWC.com
- 12. What world do you prefer Option A: We grow at 2% while others grow at 1% Option B: We grow at 3% while others grow at 6%
- 15. Should we worry?
- 21. Emerging Markets Driving Global GDP Growth 200% Japan Developed Emerging Italy France Canada UnitedKingdom Germany UnitedStates Netherlands Public Debt 2010 (%GDP) Spain Brazil Argentina India Turkey Mexico South Africa Indonesia Korea Australia China Saudi Arabia Russia Average GDP Growth 2010-2014 (%) Source: Citi, Economist Intelligence Unit.
- 23. Europanic Interbank markets sign trouble A run on Italian and Spanish debt can make Lehman Brothers seem trivial
- 24. Europanic
- 25. Summary Explosive mix: Slow recovery, even recession in developed economies Increased fiscal and financial uncertainty Rebalancing necessary Internal: from public to private demand. External: from advanced economy to developing economy demand Worries about sovereign bonds, translated into worries about banks holding that debt
- 26. Areas of attention Fiscal consolidation Not too fast or it will kill Not too slow or it will feed uncertainty Just right! Manage looming crisis Support weak links that can trigger domino effect: european sovereign debt, banks, ease housing troubles Rebalance global trade Learn new acronyms E7 E2E
- 27. Global Business Dialogue - Nov 10-11 Thunderbird School of Global Management @Thunderbird
Notes de l'éditeur
- China’s aging population and one child policy will cause it to grow at a decreasing rate starting in 2020when compared with India whose work force is relatively young and growing! These two powerhouses will be the major contributor of the E7 growth projections
- Gov’t has slowed stimulus, but private demand hasn’t picked up demand - Families still deleveraging, soft housing markets, tight lending