RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
Drivers of change for healthcare - 31 May 2012
1. The
World
in
2020:
Drivers
of
Change
for
Healthcare
Dr
Tim
Jones
–
Programme
Director
–
31
May
2012
2. Context
Looking
Forward
Organisa4ons
planning
for
the
future
seek
both
Inside-‐Out
and
Outside-‐In
views
to
gain
a
rich,
credible
perspec4ve
of
what
will
and
what
could
possibly
happen
3. The
Future
Agenda
is
the
world’s
largest
open
foresight
programme
that
ran
throughout
2010
and
engaged
expert
input
from
over
1500
organisa4ons
to
gain
a
unique
global
view
4. Context
Core
Insights
From
this
first
Future
Agenda
programme,
we
highlighted
52
core
insights
which
give
us
a
view
on
emerging
drivers
of
change
to
challenge
exis4ng
perspec4ves
5. Imbalanced
Popula4on
Growth
Certain4es
By
2020
we
will
add
another
750m
people
to
the
planet,
most
in
places
least
able
to
accommodate
them
6. Key
Resource
Constraints
Certain4es
We
will
see
economic,
physical
and
poli4cal
shortages
of
key
materials
that
will
result
in
major
changes
in
our
perspec4ves
7. Asian
Wealth
ShiX
Certain4es
The
centre
of
gravity
of
global
wealth
accelerates
back
to
the
East
with
decreased
influence
for
the
US
and
Europe
8. Ubiquitous
Data
Access
Certain4es
We
will
be
connected
everywhere
-‐
everything
that
can
benefit
from
a
network
connec4on
will
have
one
10. Challenges
and
Internal
Solu4ons
Around
the
world
there
is
evident
agreement
on
some
of
the
core
challenges
for
healthcare
as
well
as
many
sugges4ons
of
how
to
improve
the
efficiency
and
effec4veness
of
its
delivery
11. Challenges
and
Internal
Solu4ons
• Technology
to
cure
chronic
disease
• Single
healthcare
systems
• Preventa6ve
medicine
has
precedence
• Focus
on
the
vulnerable
• Focus
on
the
individual
• Priva6ze
everything
• Remote
support
• Public
healthcare
priority
• Decouple
spend
from
GDP
growth
On
both
sides
of
the
Atlan4c,
health
experts
and
commentators
alike
have
been
busy
iden4fying
lists
of
similar
op4ons
for
the
future
of
healthcare
in
the
West
12. Catalysts
for
Change
New
Technologies
+
New
Business
Models
+
Different
Payment
Systems
+
Change
of
Societal
Values
+
Poli?cal
Will
Most
see
some
common
catalysts
for
change
that
will
improve
healthcare…
But
many
are
choosing
to
ignore
two
issues
that
could
be
the
most
significant
for
las4ng
impact
13. #1:
The
End
of
Chimerica
#2:
Compe?ng
for
Cash
(in
the
West)
#3:
Affordable
Ageing
#4:
Personaliza?on
Premium
From
Outside
there
seems
to
be
Four
Key
Future
Challenges
14. #1:
The
End
of
Chimerica
Four
Future
Challenges
15. Developing
World
Urbanisa4on
Locality
By
2015,
32
people
an
hour
will
be
moving
into
Shanghai,
39
into
Kinshasa
and
Jakarta,
42
into
Mumbai
and
Karachi,
50
into
Dhaka
and
58
into
Lagos.
16. New
Middle
Class
By
2020
1bn
extra
consumers
will
enter
the
middle
class
with
increasing
spending
power
in
some
key
countries
17. Asian
Wealth
ShiX
Certain4es
Year at which GDP of China and India pass those of other countries
Goldman Sachs 2004
The
regaining
of
global
leadership
by
China
and
India
is
happening
far
faster
than
many
have
been
predic4ng
18. Third
Global
Currency
Wealth
The
economic
rise
of
Asia
and
the
need
for
an
alterna4ve
to
the
US
dollar
as
the
world’s
reserve
currency
produces
a
parallel
broad-‐basket
Asian
Currency
Unit
19. Value
Focus
China
2011
Net
Worth
Average
Fortune
per
capita
$100,000 2.3%
Popula6on
30m
37.0%
Popula6on
499m
$10,000
54.9%
Popula6on
740m
$1000
5.8%
Popula6on
31m
Credit
Suisse
-‐
Global
Wealth
Report
2011
But
to
be
effec4ve
and
affordable
healthcare
for
the
next
billion
has
to
be
delivered
at
less
than
10%
of
current
costs
20. #1:
The
End
of
Chimerica
Asia
not
America
will
set
the
standards
Four
Future
Challenges
22. Total
US
Government
Spending
2011
($bn)
Pensions
$339
Healthcare
$552
$995
Educa6on
$140
$278
Defense
$324
Welfare
$1,097
Protec6on
$753
Transporta6on
$892
Govt
$904
Other
Interest
Current
US
Government
spending
is
under
increased
pressure
and
looking
forward
all
departments
are
compe4ng
for
a
smaller
pie
23. Drone
Wars
Security
Intelligent
UAVs
choose
their
vic4ms
themselves
as
the
race
for
more
efficient
military
influence
leads
to
the
prolifera4on
of
assassina4on
tools
24. Solar
Sunrise
Security
Increasing
governmental
focus
on
energy
security
and
climate
change
drives
the
investment
in
large-‐scale
solar
as
the
leading
renewable
supply
25. Diabesity
Health
With
diabetes
consuming
up
to
5%
of
global
GDP,
stabilising
the
obesity
epidemic
will
be
the
primary
focus
for
many
na4ons’
healthcare
priori4es
26. Mass
Medical
Tourism
Health
Medical
tourism
goes
main-‐stream
as
low-‐cost
cardiac
surgery
and
broader
healthcare
provision
join
den4stry
and
cosme4c
surgery
to
have
global
impact
27. #2:
Compe?ng
for
Cash
(in
the
West)
Healthcare
funding
falls
below
GDP
Growth
Four
Future
Challenges
29. Ac4ve
Elderly
Happiness
A
wealthier,
healthier,
older
genera4on
increasingly
engage
in
more
ac4ve
lives,
having
extended
careers
but
EU
dependency
ra4os
demand
doubling
of
produc4vity
30. China’s
Demographic
Happiness
India
believes
that
within
30
years
it
will
gain
a
‘demographic
dividend’
over
China
as
the
one-‐child
policy
impacts
the
economic
balance
of
Chinese
society
31. Automated
People
Care
Health
Robo4c
assisted
care
and
remote
monitoring
provide
viable
support
for
the
sick
and
elderly
so
that
people
can
stay
home
for
longer
-‐
as
long
as
we
can
work
out
the
business
model.
32. Systemic
Euthanasia
Health
The
escala4ng
cost
of
suppor4ng
the
aged
beyond
natural
lifecycles
may
lead
to
wider
acceptance
of
assisted
suicide
in
many
regions
33. #3:
Affordable
Ageing
Healthcare
for
the
young
will
be
priori?sed
over
sick-‐care
for
the
old
Four
Future
Challenges
35. Pharma
Foods
Health
More
customised
foods,
blur
the
line
between
pharmaceu4cals
and
food
as
neutragenomics
allow
individualised
diets
to
fit
gene4c
profiles
36. Func4onal
Foods
Health
The
enthusiasm
in
many
quarters
for
consumer
focused
func4onal
foods
will
soon
come
head-‐to-‐head
with
the
margin
reality
for
more
efficient
retailers
37. Mass
Personaliza4on
Happiness
To
date
only
one
food
company
has
had
a
major
business
success
from
premium
personaliza4on
38. #4:
Personaliza?on
Premium
Consumers
only
pay
a
marginal
premium
for
personaliza?on
no
ma`er
how
beneficial
Four
Future
Challenges
39. “The
next
decade
is
not
likely
to
be
the
4me
for
change,
but
instead
a
4me
that
‘stressors’
on
the
healthcare
system
become
progressively
evident.”
§
The
issues
are
all
known
if
not
openly
shared
§
Affordable
healthcare
NOT
Sickcare
is
the
priority
§
Support
outside
of
hospital
is
pivotal
§
Preven?on
needs
proven
business
case
§
Many
systems
need
a
fundamental
rethink
Implica?ons
Summary
40. The
world’s
leading
open
foresight
program
To discuss this further please contact:
Dr Tim Jones
Programme Director
Future Agenda
84 Brook Street
London
W1K 5EH
+44 203 0088 141
+44 780 1755 054
tim.jones@futureagenda.org
futureagenda.org
