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Understanding Today’s Clean Air Act Challenges
                                 November 8, 2012
The New NAAQS
 New Short-term NAAQS
   - Sulfur Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (3,24 and Annual)
   - Nitrogen Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (Annual only)
    Other New NAAQS
   Ozone (2008)         Reduced 8 Hour Average
   Lead (2008)          Reduced Quarterly Average (1/10)
   PM2.5 (2006)         Reduced 24 Hour Average (1/2)
   Carbon Monoxide      No change

These combined make existing and new sources subject to
tremendous pressure on emissions.
                                                          2
NO2 NAAQS
 New NAAQS is 188 µg/m3(or 100ppb) but for a 1 hour
  average. Depending upon the meteorology of the site this
  results in a 6.6 times lower threshold to meet. It therefore
  will be substantially harder to meet. Annual standard
  remains.

 Compliance is determined by the 98% of the days over 3
  years, i. e. each day with a concentration over 188 µg/m3
  counts as an exceedance day. The eighth exceedance day is a
  violation for that year. The 24th exceedance day in 3 years is
  non-attainment.

                                                                 3
NO2 NAAQS Schedule
 Primary emphasis of 1 Hour NAAQS is roadways
  (50-500 meters) which are currently unmonitored
 Requires State monitoring plans by July 1, 2011
 Requires deployment of new monitors by July 1, 2013
 Includes requirement for met data.
 Non attainment designations by January 2012 based on
  2008-2010 data and then another round when the roadway
  monitoring is in.
 State Implementation Plans due 18 months after designation
  (July 2013) and attainment required in 5 years (January 2017)

                                                             4
NO2 NAAQS the Real Trouble
 States have virtually no control over
  automotive emissions, thus point sources
  near roadways could be in for control.
  No implementation guidance yet issued.
 The real danger, not even discussed in the
  Final rule or the Regulatory Impact Analysis
  is the application of the 1 Hour NAAQS to
  point sources.
 This will have a tremendous effect on all
  types of industrial sources, new and existing.
  The effect on distributed generation and
  emergency generators in urban areas could
  be huge and the effect on the oil and gas
  industry could be monumental.
                                                   5
NO2 NAAQS hints for compliance
 Have on hand testing that demonstrates
  the NO2/NOx ratio of your stack emissions. NAAQS is for NO2
  only.
 Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for
  compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in
  industrial area.
 Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient
  monitoring is necessary
  to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the
  model is over predicting actual concentrations.
 EPA’s own modeling showed that 90%
  of sources will not meet NAAQS
                                                                6
SO2 NAAQS
 New primary NAAQS of 196 µg/m3 (75 ppb) as a 1 Hour
  average results in a 7.7 times more restrictive standard. New
  standard is 99% over three years.
 This NAAQS is the 99% of the days with at least 1 hour above
  the level of the NAAQS, i.e. 4th highest value over three years.




                                                                7
SO2 NAAQS Schedule
 Focus of attainment demonstrations was to be on modeling,
  which was said to be a continuation of past policy use.
 Any new monitors by December 2012, with 3 years of data
  by 2015.
 State attainment decisions by June 2011, EPA attainment
  decisions by June 2012. This is delayed!!
 Attainment by June 2017.



   2011                              2017
                                                            8
SO2 NAAQS hints for compliance
 Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for
  compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in
  industrial area.
 Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient
  monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background
  concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual
  concentrations.
 EPA’s own modeling showed that 90% of sources will not
  meet NAAQS



                                                               9
PM2.5 NAAQS
 Old NAAQS was 65 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis
  (98%) and 15 µg/m3 on an annual average
  basis.
 New NAAQS is 35 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis.
  The annual was retained at 15 µg/m3 but the
  EPA has proposed to lower to 11-13 µg/m3.
 Modeling assumes that the SOx and NOx
  emissions are converted to particles through
  combining with ammonia in the atmosphere
  thereby becoming sulfates and nitrates.


                                                 10
PM2.5 NAAQS (cont)
 EPA recently promulgated PSD increments for PM2.5
   – Class II areas
      Annual average        4 ug/m3 (1/4th)
      24 Hour average       9 ug/m3 (1/4th)
   – Class I areas (National Parks , etc)
      Annual average        1 ug.m3
      24 Hour average       2 ug/m3
   – Significance limits (Class II and Class I)
      Annual Average        0.3 and 0.06 ug/m3
      24 Hour Average       1.2 and 0.07 ug/m3

                                                      11
PM2.5 NAAQS hints for compliance
 Have stack teats to understand exact nature of particulate
  emissions (filterable, condensable, etc)
 Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for
  compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in
  industrial area.
 Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient
  monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background
  concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual
  concentrations.



                                                               12
Future (election delayed) NAAQS Changes
 On June 14, 2012 EPA proposed to lower the annual average
  PM2.5 NAAQS again to 11-13 µg/m3
 Proposed to set a Secondary NAAQS to improve visibility in
  urban areas
 Gave Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to revise
  Ozone NAAQS to 50-60 ppb
 Lead NAAQS proposal by February 2014
 NO2 NAAQS proposal by August 2015
 SO2 NAAQS proposal by February 2016
 CO NAAQS proposal by July 2016.
                                                               13
The CSAPR/CAIR Delemma
 EPA wants to impose a regional approach to ozone and
  PM2.5 compliance in the eastern US.
 Court has stymied approaches of two administrations.
 Trading under State plans can still go forward but
  foundation for those plans is subject to change.
 No resolution is expected in the near future.


ozone
                                                         14
BART
 There are many legal challenges to EPA BART
  determinations (SCR for all!).
 EPA’s reliance on CSPAR for BART in the east is now moot
  and may force modeling analysis for eastern sources.
 EPA’s reliance on insignificant changes in Deciviews as
  determined by models was also struck down by the court
  and a basis for challenges.
 Understand your BART modeling analysis.




                                                             15
MATS
 EPA (due to political pressure) is reconsidering new
  source limits.
 EPA is not reconsidering existing source limits.
 Compliance by April 2015
 States are handing out 1 year extensions.
 Utilities must act now to build case
  for additional “reliability extensions”
  which EPA expects to be rare.
 No FERC policy yet.


                                                         16
RICE MACT
 Insure that diesel engines meet the MACT requirement
  of less than 23 ppm CO.
 Compliance deadline May 2013. Are you ready?
 One year extensions.
 Oxidation catalyst manufacturers will run out of capacity
  soon and many installation require more engineering than
  the manufacturers provide.




                                                              17
NSPS for Electric Utilities
 EPA proposed 1000 tons CO2e/MW
  which means combined cycle with
  HRSG’s or sequestration.
 Expect finalization after election.
 Current applicants, of course, must
  comply with the proposal.




                                        18
Summary
 Know your emissions of SO2, NO2, PM2.5, and HAPs
 Do preliminary modeling, so that you know the situation
  for compliance.
 Decide whether ambient monitoring will help determine
  the accuracy of compliance.
 Follow the implementation schedules and regulations in
  your State. The NAAQS will not change but the
  implementation may change.




                                                            19
Gale F. Hoffnagle, CCM, QEP
P: xxx.xxx.xxxx | E: GHoffnagle@trcsolutions.com
www.trcsolutions.com

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Understanding Today's Clean Air Act Challenges

  • 1. Understanding Today’s Clean Air Act Challenges November 8, 2012
  • 2. The New NAAQS  New Short-term NAAQS - Sulfur Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (3,24 and Annual) - Nitrogen Dioxide (2010) 1 Hour Average (Annual only)  Other New NAAQS Ozone (2008) Reduced 8 Hour Average Lead (2008) Reduced Quarterly Average (1/10) PM2.5 (2006) Reduced 24 Hour Average (1/2) Carbon Monoxide No change These combined make existing and new sources subject to tremendous pressure on emissions. 2
  • 3. NO2 NAAQS  New NAAQS is 188 µg/m3(or 100ppb) but for a 1 hour average. Depending upon the meteorology of the site this results in a 6.6 times lower threshold to meet. It therefore will be substantially harder to meet. Annual standard remains.  Compliance is determined by the 98% of the days over 3 years, i. e. each day with a concentration over 188 µg/m3 counts as an exceedance day. The eighth exceedance day is a violation for that year. The 24th exceedance day in 3 years is non-attainment. 3
  • 4. NO2 NAAQS Schedule  Primary emphasis of 1 Hour NAAQS is roadways (50-500 meters) which are currently unmonitored  Requires State monitoring plans by July 1, 2011  Requires deployment of new monitors by July 1, 2013  Includes requirement for met data.  Non attainment designations by January 2012 based on 2008-2010 data and then another round when the roadway monitoring is in.  State Implementation Plans due 18 months after designation (July 2013) and attainment required in 5 years (January 2017) 4
  • 5. NO2 NAAQS the Real Trouble  States have virtually no control over automotive emissions, thus point sources near roadways could be in for control. No implementation guidance yet issued.  The real danger, not even discussed in the Final rule or the Regulatory Impact Analysis is the application of the 1 Hour NAAQS to point sources.  This will have a tremendous effect on all types of industrial sources, new and existing. The effect on distributed generation and emergency generators in urban areas could be huge and the effect on the oil and gas industry could be monumental. 5
  • 6. NO2 NAAQS hints for compliance  Have on hand testing that demonstrates the NO2/NOx ratio of your stack emissions. NAAQS is for NO2 only.  Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.  Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations.  EPA’s own modeling showed that 90% of sources will not meet NAAQS 6
  • 7. SO2 NAAQS  New primary NAAQS of 196 µg/m3 (75 ppb) as a 1 Hour average results in a 7.7 times more restrictive standard. New standard is 99% over three years.  This NAAQS is the 99% of the days with at least 1 hour above the level of the NAAQS, i.e. 4th highest value over three years. 7
  • 8. SO2 NAAQS Schedule  Focus of attainment demonstrations was to be on modeling, which was said to be a continuation of past policy use.  Any new monitors by December 2012, with 3 years of data by 2015.  State attainment decisions by June 2011, EPA attainment decisions by June 2012. This is delayed!!  Attainment by June 2017. 2011 2017 8
  • 9. SO2 NAAQS hints for compliance  Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.  Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations.  EPA’s own modeling showed that 90% of sources will not meet NAAQS 9
  • 10. PM2.5 NAAQS  Old NAAQS was 65 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis (98%) and 15 µg/m3 on an annual average basis.  New NAAQS is 35 µg/m3 on a 24 hour basis. The annual was retained at 15 µg/m3 but the EPA has proposed to lower to 11-13 µg/m3.  Modeling assumes that the SOx and NOx emissions are converted to particles through combining with ammonia in the atmosphere thereby becoming sulfates and nitrates. 10
  • 11. PM2.5 NAAQS (cont)  EPA recently promulgated PSD increments for PM2.5 – Class II areas  Annual average 4 ug/m3 (1/4th)  24 Hour average 9 ug/m3 (1/4th) – Class I areas (National Parks , etc)  Annual average 1 ug.m3  24 Hour average 2 ug/m3 – Significance limits (Class II and Class I)  Annual Average 0.3 and 0.06 ug/m3  24 Hour Average 1.2 and 0.07 ug/m3 11
  • 12. PM2.5 NAAQS hints for compliance  Have stack teats to understand exact nature of particulate emissions (filterable, condensable, etc)  Perform “preliminary modeling” to determine potential for compliance with the NAAQS, whether isolated source or in industrial area.  Based on results of modeling, determine whether ambient monitoring is necessary to demonstrate actual background concentrations or that the model is over predicting actual concentrations. 12
  • 13. Future (election delayed) NAAQS Changes  On June 14, 2012 EPA proposed to lower the annual average PM2.5 NAAQS again to 11-13 µg/m3  Proposed to set a Secondary NAAQS to improve visibility in urban areas  Gave Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to revise Ozone NAAQS to 50-60 ppb  Lead NAAQS proposal by February 2014  NO2 NAAQS proposal by August 2015  SO2 NAAQS proposal by February 2016  CO NAAQS proposal by July 2016. 13
  • 14. The CSAPR/CAIR Delemma  EPA wants to impose a regional approach to ozone and PM2.5 compliance in the eastern US.  Court has stymied approaches of two administrations.  Trading under State plans can still go forward but foundation for those plans is subject to change.  No resolution is expected in the near future. ozone 14
  • 15. BART  There are many legal challenges to EPA BART determinations (SCR for all!).  EPA’s reliance on CSPAR for BART in the east is now moot and may force modeling analysis for eastern sources.  EPA’s reliance on insignificant changes in Deciviews as determined by models was also struck down by the court and a basis for challenges.  Understand your BART modeling analysis. 15
  • 16. MATS  EPA (due to political pressure) is reconsidering new source limits.  EPA is not reconsidering existing source limits.  Compliance by April 2015  States are handing out 1 year extensions.  Utilities must act now to build case for additional “reliability extensions” which EPA expects to be rare.  No FERC policy yet. 16
  • 17. RICE MACT  Insure that diesel engines meet the MACT requirement of less than 23 ppm CO.  Compliance deadline May 2013. Are you ready?  One year extensions.  Oxidation catalyst manufacturers will run out of capacity soon and many installation require more engineering than the manufacturers provide. 17
  • 18. NSPS for Electric Utilities  EPA proposed 1000 tons CO2e/MW which means combined cycle with HRSG’s or sequestration.  Expect finalization after election.  Current applicants, of course, must comply with the proposal. 18
  • 19. Summary  Know your emissions of SO2, NO2, PM2.5, and HAPs  Do preliminary modeling, so that you know the situation for compliance.  Decide whether ambient monitoring will help determine the accuracy of compliance.  Follow the implementation schedules and regulations in your State. The NAAQS will not change but the implementation may change. 19
  • 20. Gale F. Hoffnagle, CCM, QEP P: xxx.xxx.xxxx | E: GHoffnagle@trcsolutions.com www.trcsolutions.com