Tim Stonor_Predictive analytics_Kyoto Smart City Expo presentation
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Presentation at the Kyoto Smart City Expo, 26th March 2014.
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Tim Stonor_Predictive analytics_Kyoto Smart City Expo presentation
- 1. Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Smart City Expo 2014 Kyoto 26th March 2014 Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner
- 2. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 1. Resource availability Scarce & diminishing 3. Future visioning Fanciful & un-evidenced 6. Consultation Problematic & uncollaborative 7. Decision-taking Hesitant 5. Impact forecasting Inaccurate 4. Financial backing Short-term & unaccountable Urban planning in the 21st Century Some challenges 2. Data integration Overloaded & disconnected
- 4. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014
- 5. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 y = .784x + 2.147, R-squared: .589 Spatial accessibility Pedestrianmovement Spatial accessibility -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 y = 1.235x + 1.048, R-squared: .702 Vehiclemovement Research shows that 60-80% of movement flows are due to the structure of the network, measured by spatial accessibility. 研究表明60-80%的交通受到网络结构影响，可采用 空间可达性来度量。 More accessible places get more movement. 更可达的场所吸引更多交通流量。 Key discovery #1 Layout influences human behaviour 关键发现＃1 布局影响人类行为
- 6. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Suzhou 苏州 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.8 4 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 9.5 10 Y = .013 + .394 * X; R^2 = .722 Spatial Accessibility VehicleMovement 72% correlation 72％的相关性
- 7. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Courtesy of The TLRN Central London Pedestrian Study by Atkins Key discovery #2 Spatial layout distributes land use 关键发现＃2 的空间布局分配土地使用
- 8. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Area 5 Area 6 Area 3 Area 2 Perth, Australia 澳大利亚珀斯 Property crime analysis 财产犯罪分析 Key discovery #3 Spatial layout influences crime & safety 关键发现#3 空间布局影响犯罪与安全
- 9. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Value of property security 财产安全的价值 0 UrbanBuzz 城市网站
- 10. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 £ Int Centre vitality 中心活力 % Street quality 街道品质 Property value 房地产价值 Residential security 住宅区安全 Personal safety 个人安全 Urban layout 城市布局 Key discovery #4 Spatial layout determines land value 关键发现#4 空间布局决定土地价值
- 11. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Connected layout 建议的布局Dislocated layout 破碎的布局IntegrationR400 High accessibility score 高通达性Low accessibility score 低通达性 Dislocated layout 破碎的布局 Connected layout 建议的布局 Difference 差别 IRR 内部收益率 11% 14% + 27% NPV 净现值 £47 Million £ 145 Million + £98 Million
- 12. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Disconnected grids increase travel emissions 间断的路网增加旅行 的排放量 Key discovery #5 Spatial layout affects carbon footprint 关键发现＃5 空间布局影响碳痕迹
- 13. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 The continuously connected city The largest object of human creation A natural asset with enormous intrinsic value Transaction machine
- 14. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 A process of scientific co-creation 共同创新互利的过程 UCL Space Syntax Fundamental research Teaching Technology development Space Syntax Limited Consulting Studio Academy Laboratory SoftwareWorks People Ideas Questions
- 15. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
- 16. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
- 17. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Spatial masterplanning Rapid design development & testing
- 18. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London
- 19. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London Low levels of space use
- 20. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London Pedestrian survey
- 21. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility model Spatial Accessibility High Low
- 22. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Before After Trafalgar Square, London Spatial accessibility analysis Spatial Accessibility High Low
- 23. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London Artist’s impression
- 24. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 First day of opening Trafalgar Square, London
- 25. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Trafalgar Square, London New central staircase
- 26. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Observe Explain Forecast Deliver Trafalgar Square, London Spatial design process
- 27. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Nottingham Old Market Square
- 28. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Millennium Bridge, London
- 29. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Olympic Park London 2012
- 30. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
- 31. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 London 2012 Olympic Games Opening Ceremony
- 32. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Elephant & Castle Southern Crossing
- 33. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Cycling Science-based creation of cycling policy and design proposals Weekday Weekend Existing cycle infrastructure around Euston station Observed cyclist flows around Euston station (weekday and weekend) Spatial accessibility model, Euston station
- 34. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Crowncopyright.OSLicenceNo0100192252Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2013 Spatial accessibility High Low Railway station 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 111111111 111111111000000000 000000000
- 35. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Crowncopyright.OSLicenceNo0100192252Urban expansion Spatial accessibility in 2038 Spatial accessibility High Low Railway station 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km2km 111111111 111111111000000000 000000000
- 36. Darwin, Australia CBD Expansion
- 37. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Tim Stonor & Ed Parham Introduction to Space Syntax Harvard University Graduate School of Design Space Syntax © 2011 Jeddah Waterfront 500Ha masterplan
- 38. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Consultation
- 39. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Abu Dhabi 阿布扎比 Dubai 迪拜 Sharjah沙迦 Space Syntax © 2013 United Arab Emirates 阿拉伯联合大公国 Strategic planning Using spatial network as the foundation 策略性规划 使用空间网络作为基础
- 40. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Informal settlement Evidence-based, adaptable regeneration plans 临时定居点 基于论证的，有适应力的再生规划 Jeddah – Saudi Arabia吉达 - 沙特阿拉伯 High intervention 高程度介入 Low intervention低程度介入
- 41. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Existing Changchun 长春 Proposed growth 规划深入 Spatial Accessibility low high medium Approx. 40km Strategic planning Spatial distribution of urbanisation 策略性规划 城市化的空间分布
- 42. Changping 昌 平 Shunyi 顺义 Huairou 怀柔 Miyun 密云 Pinggu 平谷 Tongzhou 通州 Daxing 大兴Fangshan 房山 Mentougou 门头沟 Beijing 中国 北京 Beijing - China Urban sprawl Integrated urban-rural development 城市扩张 城乡综合发展
- 43. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 500km Scale of journey 100km 50km UK Spatial Infrastructure Model Describing spatial accessibility from high in red, then orange and yellow to low in green then blue.
- 44. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 0. Spatial Layout 空间结构 1. Movement 人们的活动 2. Land Use 土地使用 3. Crime & Safety 4. Land Value 5. Carbon Emissions Integrated Urban Model
- 45. People 1. Behaviour 2. Wealth 3. Health 4. Safety 5. Cultural identity Resources 1. Materials 2. Energy 3. Finance 4. Utilities supply 5. Waste handling Urban Form 1. Spatial Form 2. Physical Form - capacity - location - condition - value dActions v3 dDecision-taking Environment 1. Sun 2. Wind 3. Rainfall 4. Groundform 5. Biodiversity Data Mapping Data Quantification Visualise Urban Data Collective Integrated platform for performance data How is the place working? dUncertainty dIdeas for change Opportunities & Constraints Creation of Conceptual Options Conceive Urban Strategy Integrated urban policy and practice What are the opportunities for change? dConsultation Forecast Urban Forecast Model Scenario testing & performance forecasting How will performance be affected by change? Simulation & Optimisation of Options Development of Preferred Option dAwareness Explain Urban Performance Model Integrated urban diagnostics: spatial analytics Why does the place work the way it does? Urban Diagnosis Issues, Objectives & Principles Urban Baseline Study Urban Impact Analysis User interface/state Behaviour change Decision groups Data Data inputs 1 2 3 4 5 6 Integrated Urban Model
- 46. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 2. Data integration Spatial Accessibility Framework 3. Future visioning Dynamic Urban Modelling 6. Consultation Engaging people around “place” 7. Decision-taking Bold but risk reduced 5. Impact forecasting Focus on human transaction 4. Financial backing Urban Value analysis Urban planning in the 21st Century Addressing challenges 1. Resource availability Integrated Places Strategy
- 47. Tim Stonor Predictive analytics For urban planning, building design & spatial economics Kyoto Smart City Expo 2014 Space Syntax © 2014 Tim Stonor Architect & Urban Planner t.stonor@spacesyntax.com @Tim_Stonor www.spacesyntax.com
Notes de l'éditeur
- Good afternoon. In this presentation I will show you an approach to urban planning that on computer-based predictive analytics. As an architect in private practice, these tools are the foundation of my company’s approach: one that uses a science-based approach to understand human behaviour in cities. Tomorrow I will be speaking again about the Foresight work that the UK Government Office for Science is undertaking to address the Future of Cities, a project that I am contributing to, coming from the background that I would like to now take you through.
- I think it’s important that we start with some of the challenges facing current urban planning practice worldwide.
- Well all of that sounded terribly depressing. So how can we address these challenges? Well, starting with the behaviour of people is a good approach. Here on the left is the Tate Gallery in London and we have followed 100 people for 10 minutes, picking them up at the main entrance at the bottom of the image, then tracking them. You can see their individual traces as well as the overall pattern they make. Lots of people walk up the central axis of the gallery. More walk on the left than the right sides.Now on the right is a spatial analysis – quite a simple one – where a computer breaks the plan of the building down into discrete elements of space – you can perhaps see the individual square pixels…
- SkyCycle is born of an interest in how the city connects. My company, Space Syntax, has created a unique approach to Spatial Network Analytics. We predict the movement of people in cars, on foot and on bikes and, as with SkyCycle, our work is often about spotting strategic opportunities to make cities work better for people.
- Which gives us a definition of the city as a transaction machine, built on its spatial network – indeed very largely dependent on its spatial network to organise flows of people, goods, energy and communications. After all, it is largely along streets that pipes, cables and tunnels all run. This makes the management of existing spatial networks and the creation of new ones a key element of infrastructure planning.
- A brief pause to recognise the central role that University College London has played in the development of this technology, supported by funding from the UK Research Councils. The tools I have shown you are based on over 30 years of continuous development, which continues to this day.
- MAPSpace Syntax’s cycle network analysis begins by mapping existing cycle infrastructure to evaluate network capacity, legibility and character. This approach is underpinned by a well-established method of analysing the wider spatial layout hierarchy as well as the location of transport nodes and other attractor land-uses which influence cycling behaviour.MeasurePatterns of vehicle and pedestrian movement are also examined and conflicts are studied. Spatial and temporal patterns in movement are identified and analysed.Model Ideas for change are then modelled to evaluate their impact.Space Syntax models create a unique understanding of how physical and spatial factors interact to influence the way that all roads users – including cyclists and pedestrians – move, interact and transact in streets.MakeSpace Syntax’s models are used to highlight key issues and predict future demands in order to identify what and where investment is needed.Applications include evidence-based cycle policy and strategic network development as part of integrated, multi-scale and multi-modal public realm design concepts.
- These tools are increasingly being used internationally. Recently we launched a vision for the expansion of the Central Business District in Darwin, Australia, where the predictive analytics were used to identify optimal pattern of new streets and public spaces, as well as a distribution of land uses. Key to this was modelling of land value impact, both on the new development and on existing land.
- The evidence base that we have created has proved useful in stakeholder negotiations.
- But always with an eye on the human scale of local behaviour and interaction – as here in a plan for the improvement of an unplanned area of Jeddah – where we have created a method for better integrating the informal development into the wider city. This is both a spatial and an economic strategy.
- And predictive modelling is proving highly useful in the creation of large and rapid urban expansion plans, as here in the north-eastern Chinese city of Changchun, where you can see the very large growth that is planned.
- So, in summary, what I have show you is an urban modelling system, created in the UK but now being used and developed worldwide by well over 5,000 different people. It brings together data sets from various sources and the key to its operational effectiveness is its Spatial Layout Analysis – the base layer in the data stack.
- This Integrated Urban Modelling approach addresses those urban challenges I listed at the start of this presentation. It takes different kinds of data inputs across the top of the page. Then by first Visualising, then Explaining data correlations it allows urban planning ideas to be Conceived and their impacts to be Forecast. My experience has been that this takes people from a state of Uncertainty, through Awareness of key issues, to become contributors themselves of Ideas for Change, all of which aids in the Consultation and Decision-taking processes. With the ultimate aim being to take actions that lead to behaviour changes in pursuit of higher order goals of social cohesion, economic productivity and carbon reduction.
- So if we look again at the challenges, my view is that predictive analytics can address each of them, allowing ultimately for decisions to be taken that might seem bold but are actually risk reduced.