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Rich Tullo
                                                                                                                                                   Trading Desk Analyst
                                                                                                                                                   rtullo@albertfried.com
                                                                                                                                                   (212) 422 – 7282

                                                                                                                                                   June 24, 2009
                                Internal Distribution Only
MDC Partners Inc.
NASDAQ: MDCA                                                         BUY

Price:                                $5.64 Price Target:                               $9.00                       Stock Chart



MCAP.:                             178mm Shares Out.:                                  28mm


Avg. Vol.
                                    39,000 Short Int.:                                17,891
10 day:

52 Week                                            52 Week
                                      $8.76                                             $2.19
High:                                              Low:

                                                                                                                  Year               2007              2008              2009E             2010E
EV/EBITDA:                                   4x P/BV:                                        1.8               Revenue            547,319           584,648            580,472           636,570
                                                                                                                  EPS              ($1.05)            $0.00              $0.14             $0.34

Notes: GAAP Earnings include $0.34 and $0.48 in non-cash executive stock compensation expenses in 2007 and 2008. Estimates include $0.31 and $0.34 in non-cash executive stock compensation.




Initiate Coverage of MDCA with a BUY Rating and $9.00 Target, We Like MDCA’s Strate-
gic Position and Prospects for Market Share Gains in 2009-2010

Key Points:

•     We think MDC Partners (NASDAQ: MDCA BUY) shares are attractive; prior to a rebound in global Ad spending, we ex-
      pect MDCA to benefit from increased spending on creative advertising services.

•     MDCA has limited top-line exposure to auto manufacturers as its clients (Volkswagen and BMW ) have had only mod-
      est sales declines (-12% and -27% respectively) as compared to U.S. domestic manufactures (–36% to –42%).

•     We like MDCA’s core clientele of fast food and family restaurants such as Burger King (NYSE BKH, NC) and Domino’s
      Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) as they are stable advertisers in our view.

•     We expect MDCA to offset a $30 million decline in CRM revenue in 2009 with an increase in SMS or agency revenue.

•     MDCA’s balance sheet has improved and we expect MDCA to retire its 8%, $45 million, CDN 2010 convertible bonds
      with its existing credit lines and the cash balances.

•     We derive our $9 target by applying a 6x peer group EV-to-EBITDA multiple to our 2010 $68 million EBITDA estimate.
      Our target implies roughly 57% upside from the current price. Thus we initiate coverage with A BUY rating.




                        See important notes, disclosures and disclaimers on page 6,7 before making investment decisions.
Company Overview: MDC Partners, Inc. is and advertising industry holding company. MDCA, through its subsidiaries, provides marketing
                                                   .
communications services primarily in the United States, Canada, Europe, Jamaica, and Philippines. It operates through three segments:
Strategic Marketing Services, Customer Relationship Management, and Specialized Communication Services. MDC Partners also offers
advertising, retail and event marketing, and consumer promotion services. The company was formerly known as MDC Corporation, Inc.
and changed its name to MDC Partners, Inc. in January 2004. MDC Partners, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto,
Canada.
MDCA benefits more from the growth in Internet and interactive advertising, compared with its peer group, since roughly 40% of the com-
pany’s business is in digital innovation and direct response. Since 2005, MDCA’s advertising revenue expanded roughly 42%, compared
with 30% for the peer group and 47% for Internet advertising, because MDCA’s agencies are industry thought leaders and delivered suc-
cessful interactive ad campaigns.
Specifically, MDCA’s two largest agency holdings, Crispen Porter and Bogusky (CP+B) agency and Kirshenbaum Bond and Partners (KBP)
have won agency awards and more importantly high profile clients. In 2008, CP+B began work on the Microsoft (NASD: MSFT, NC) and
Best Buy (NYSE; BBY, NC) campaigns and KBP began work on Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN,NC). We think CP+B’s strength is selling to the 18-30
year-old age demographic (also know as the millennial generation) and KBP strong suit is selling to mature tech-savvy customers.

MDCA’s largest Auto manufacturing client, Volkswagen, just surpassed Ford in global market share: We think MDCA’s SMS sales visibility
is strong versus the holding company peer group with exposure to the Big Three US Auto manufactures. MDCA benefits from Volks-
wagen’s strategic goals and its commitment to maintain ad spending. Currently, Volkswagen sells about 700,000 vehicles in the US and
plans to increase US sales to 1.3 million units by offering fuel efficient clean-diesel cars made in Europe, the US and Brazil. In contrast,
to U.S. automakers (which have cut ad spending by roughly 50%) Volkswagen plans maintain its current level of ad spending according to
comments made by Volkswagen’s marketing manager Tim Ellis. In May, Volkswagen sales were down just 12% versus lower sales at the
Big Three and Toyota which where down 33% and 41% respectively (according to Auto Data) and we credit Volkswagen performance to
investment in advertising.
MDCA will benefit, in our view, from consumer electronics in 2009 : We expect MDCA to benefit from the new Microsoft Windows
(NASDAQ: MSFT) 7.0 launch in 3Q:09: The aforementioned CP+B is also the agency of record for Microsoft’s Windows products. CP+B
was hired by Microsoft to help rebuild its brand to counter Apple’s (NASD: AAPL) aggressive negative advertising. We think MSFT contrib-
uted $15 million or about 2.5% to MSFT’s top line in 2008. We expect MSFT will increase ad spending in the run-up to it’s its windows
launch and offset weakness MDCA might incur owing to a recessionary economy. As CP+B is Best Buy’s creative Ad Agency we think the
company will benefit from increasing competition between Wal-Mart and Best Buy and the surge in new consumer electronics such as
smart phones and LED TV’s.
As ad rates remain challenged we expect MDCA’s fast food clients to maintain advertising budgets: MDCA’s revenue is weighted to fast-
food and family restaurants -owing to its strength with millennials. MDCA’s clients include; Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s (NYSE:
WEN,NC), Dominoes Pizza (NYSE: DPZ, NC) , Arby’s (is division of NYSE:WEN, NC), International House of Pancakes (NYSE:IHOP,NC), PF
Changs (NYSE: PFC, NC), Churches Chicken and Subway (in Canada). We think, fast service restaurants benefit as budget conscious con-
sumers switched from higher priced restaurants. The restaurant business is highly competitive and advertising intensive. As ad rates
across all media have plummeted; restaurant ad budget have stayed the same or increased as advertisers can buy more media impres-
sions per dollar.
As MDCA’s margins improve ; we expect MDCA to pay down debt. Owing to its acquisition strategy from (2001 to 2006) MDCA has large
non-cash expenses therefore GAAP earnings in our view is not the best measure of MDCA’s income. We use EBITDA (defined as Earnings
before interest , taxes, depreciation minority interest) and as MDCA’s EBITDA expanded to $41 million in 2008 from $31 million in 2007
cash on its balance sheet has expanded to $46 million at the end of 1Q:09. Thus the $45 million in MDCA 8% convertible notes coming
due in 2010 are not a great risk, in our opinion as, MDCA has ample liquidity.
Risks to Thesis: MDCA through its Accent CRM division operates call centers for Sprint. Sprint had been losing market share and inves-
tors became concerned about MDCA’s CRM franchise. Ironically as Sprint has improved its service offering high touch customer com-
plaints have declined. Thus the need for CRM services has diminished. As a result we expect CRM revenues to decline about $35 million
in 2009. While we think our estimates are realistic MDCA failure to offset CRM revenue with SMS sales could result in down-side to our
estimates.

Estimates and Target: Despite a decline in CRM revenue, we expect only a modest decline in MDCA’s top-line (to $580 million in 2009
from $584 in 2008). As MDCA cuts cost we expect EBITDA to grow roughly 15% to $53 million in 2009 (from $46 million in 2008) and a
modest gain in EPS to $0.14. As the global economic outlook improves in 2010, we expect MDCA’s top-line to expand 10%, EBITDA to
expand 28% to $68 million and EPS to nearly double to $0.34.

We value MDCA by using the ratio of EV-to-EBITDA. We think the overhang related to MDCA’s CRM franchise creates an opportunity to
BUY MDCA shares at a discount to its peers. MDCA’s current $5.70 price level implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 4x which is a
significant discount to the 6x peer group multiple. To derive our $9 target, we apply a 6X multiple to our $68 million 2010 EBITDA esti-
mate. We argue MDCA deserves a least a peer group multiple as MDCA is a industry thought leader with exposure to growing clients and
with almost 60% upside to our target we think investors should BUY MDCA shares.
Table 1.
MDC PARTNERS INCOME STATEMENT
(All figures in $000s except where noted)                                      2007 A      Mar. A      Jun.A      Sep. A     Dec.A      2008 A    Mar. A      Jun. E      Sep. E      Dec. E      2009E       Mar. E      Jun. E      Sep. E      Dec. E      2010E
Revenue                                                                      $547,319     $143,344   $158,275   $126,738   $156,291   $584,648   $126,738   $145,613    $133,075    $175,046    $580,472    $145,115    $152,602    $159,956    $178,897    $636,570
Operating Expenses
  Cost of services sold                                                      351,851       97,591    104,012     85,879    104,663    392,145     85,879     99,017      90,491     122,532     397,919     100,129     105,296     108,770     121,650     435,845
  Office and general expenses                                                143,207       35,849     37,480     31,152     33,274    137,755     31,152     31,775      30,341      31,508     124,776      32,506      33,878      31,991      31,486     129,861
  Depreciation and amortization                                               29,246        10,088      8,708      7,593      8,015     34,404      7,593     7,274       7,020       6,986      28,873       6,898       6,898       6,898       6,898      27,592
  Other charges (recoveries)
  Goodwill and intangible impairment
  Total Operating Expenses                                                   524,304      143,528    150,200    124,624    145,952    564,304    124,624    138,066     127,852     161,026     551,568     139,533     146,071     147,659     160,034     593,298
Operating Profit                                                               23,015        (184)     8,075      2,114     10,339     20,344      2,114      7,547       5,223      14,020      28,904       5,582       6,531      12,297      18,863      43,273
         Operating margin %                                                      4.2%       -0.1%       5.1%       1.7%       6.6%       3.5%       1.7%       5.2%        3.9%        8.0%        5.0%        3.8%        4.3%        7.7%       10.5%        6.8%
Other Income (Expenses)
     Gain on sale of assets, settlement of long-term debt                       3,065                                          (14)       (14)
     Other income and foreign exchange gain, (loss)                            (7,192)      3,603       (527)     2,629      7,552     13,257      2,629        (200)       (200)       (200)      2,029        (200)       (200)       (200)       (200)       (800)
     Interest expense                                                         (13,672)     (3,889)    (3,413)    (3,633)    (4,064)   (14,998)    (3,761)     (3,761)     (3,761)     (3,761)    (15,044)     (4,305)     (4,305)     (4,305)     (4,305)    (17,220)
     Interest income                                                            1,726          206        173        203      1161       1743         203        203         203         203         812         300         300         300         300        1200
     Total Other Income (Expenses)                                            (16,073)        (80)    (3,767)      (801)     4,635        (12)      (929)    (3,758)     (3,758)     (3,758)    (12,203)     (4,205)     (4,205)     (4,205)     (4,205)    (16,820)
Income from continuing operations before taxes                                   6,942       (264)     4,308      1,313     14,974     20,332      1,185      3,789       1,465      10,262      16,701       1,377       2,326       8,092      14,658      26,453
 b/f taxes, equity in affiliates and minority interests
Income taxes                                                                     5,620       (825)     3,943        615     (1,336)     2,397        615      1,515         586       4,105       6,821        (551)       (930)      (3237)      (5863)     (10581)
Income from continuing operations                                                1,322        561        365        698     16,310     17,935        570      2,273         879       6,157       9,879         826       1,396        4,855       8,795      15,872
     b/f equity in affiliates and minority interests
Equity in earnings of non-consolidated affiliates                                 165         140         81         93        100        349         93        100         100         100         393          100         100         100         100         400
Minority interests in income of consolidated subsidiaries                     (20,565)     (2,094)    (2,869)      (382)    (2,791)    (8,136)                                                       -        (8,047)     (8,660)     (9,387)    (10,951)    (37,045)
Income (loss) from continuing operations                                      (19,078)     (1,393)    (2,504)       409     13,635     10,148        663       2,273        879        6,157       9,972         926       1,496       4,955       8,895      16,272
     Net income margin %                                                        -3.5%       -1.0%      -1.6%       0.3%       8.7%       1.7%       0.5%        1.6%       0.7%         3.5%        1.7%        0.6%        1.0%        3.1%        5.0%        2.6%
Income (loss) from discontinued operations                                     (7,277)                             (252)    (9,763)   (10,015)      (252)       (500)      (500)        (500)     (1752)       (500)       (500)        (500)       (500)   ($2,000)
Net income attributed to non-controlling interests                                                                                                  (382)     (1186)       (979)      (1680)      (4228)       (662)       (738)      (1199)      (1724)      (4324)
     % Income from Continuing opes                                                                                                                   -4%          -8%        -8%          -8%        -8%         -8%        -8%          -8%         -8%         -8%
Net Income (Loss)                                                             (26,355)     (1,253)    (2,504)       157      3,872        133         29         588       (600)       3,976       3,993        (236)       258        3,256       6,670       9,948
Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share:
Basic
Continuing operations                                                            (0.76)     (0.05)     (0.09)      0.02       0.51       0.38       0.01       0.09        0.04        0.25        0.39        0.04        0.06        0.20        0.36        0.66
Discontinued operations and changes in accounting                                (0.29)     (0.08)     (0.07)        (0)     (0.21)     (0.37)        (0)
Net loss                                                                        ($1.05)    ($0.13)    ($0.16)     $0.01      $0.30      $0.01      $0.00      $0.02      ($0.02)      $0.16       $0.16      ($0.01)      $0.01       $0.13       $0.27       $0.40
Diluted
Continuing operations                                                            (0.76)     (0.05)     (0.09)      0.02       0.50       0.38       0.01       0.09        0.04        0.25        0.40       (0.01)       0.01        0.13        0.27        0.40
Discontinued operations and non-controlling                                                                       (0.01)     (0.36)     (0.37)     (0.01)     (0.07)      (0.06)      (0.11)      (0.26)       0.00       (0.00)      (0.02)      (0.04)      (0.06)
Net Income (loss) per share                                                     ($1.05)    ($0.05)    ($0.09)     $0.01      $0.14      $0.00      $0.00      $0.02      ($0.02)      $0.14       $0.14      ($0.01)      $0.01       $0.11       $0.23       $0.34
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding:
Basic                                                                          25,001      26,800     26,800     27,116     26,800     26,800     26,800     24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800      24,800
Diluted                                                                        25,001      26,800     26,800     27,116     27,116     26,958     27,116     27,116      29,116      29,116      28,116      29,116      29,116      29,116      29,116      29,116
MDC share of Ebitda (TTM)                                                     31,696       33,908     41,770     43,694     46,612     46,612     48,127     47,848      49,787      53,549      53,549      56,542      56,098      63,330      68,541      68,541
EV                                                                           352,556      362,073    337,477    339,979    317,677    273,411    251,852    277,710     312,899     296,345     254,463     192,449     264,546     408,740     676,906     297,006
EV/EBITDA                                                                       11.1         10.7        8.1        7.8        5.9        5.9        5.2         5.8         6.3         4.8         4.8         3.4        4.7          6.5         4.3         4.3
(Earnings before intrest,taxes, depreciation and amortization less minority intrest)
Other per Share
Ebitda Per Share (diluted)                                                       $2.09      $0.37      $0.63      $0.36      $0.68      $2.03      $0.36      $0.55       $0.42       $0.72       $2.05       $0.28       $0.32       $0.51       $0.74       $1.86
MDC Share of Ebitda (basic)                                                      $1.27      $0.29      $0.52      $0.34      $0.58      $1.74      $0.35      $0.55       $0.45       $0.78       $2.16       $0.50       $0.53       $0.75       $0.99       $2.76
MDCA Share of Ebitda (per share diluted)                                         $1.27      $0.29      $0.52      $0.34      $0.57      $1.73      $0.34      $0.50       $0.39       $0.66       $1.90       $0.42       $0.45       $0.64       $0.84       $2.35
Percentage of Sales
Gross Margin %                                                                   35.7%      33.3%      34.3%      32.2%      36.0%      32.9%      32.2%      32.0%       32.0%       30.0%       31.4%       31.0%       31.0%       32.0%       32.0%       31.5%
Ebit margin %                                                                      NM         NM       -1.9%       2.5%       5.9%       2.2%       2.3%       1.8%        1.8%        2.0%        2.0%        0.9%        1.5%        5.1%        8.2%        4.2%
Ebitda Margin %                                                                   9.5%       6.9%      10.6%       7.7%      11.7%       9.4%       7.7%      10.2%        9.2%       12.0%       10.0%        5.7%        6.0%        9.4%       12.0%        8.5%
Net Income Margin %                                                                NM         NM         NM        0.3%       8.7%        NM        0.5%       1.6%        0.7%        3.5%        1.7%        0.6%        1.0%        3.1%        5.0%        2.6%
YOY Performance Measures
Gross Margin                                                                       11%        16%        -4%       -17%       -13%        -2%       -14%       -14%          4%          6%         -5%         10%          2%         20%          9%         10%
Operating profit                                                                   73%        NM         56%        NM         NM         NM         NM         -7%        147%         36%         42%        164%        -13%        135%         35%         50%
Ebitda                                                                             NM        326%        46%       -23%        NM          5%        -2%       -12%         26%         14%          6%        -15%        -38%         22%          3%         -6%
Net Income                                                                         29%       -84%        -3%      -106%      -291%      -153%      -148%      -191%        115%        -55%          NM         40%        -34%        464%         44%         63%
Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
Table 2.
MDC PARTNERS BALANCE SHEET
(All figures in $000s except where noted)                2006         Mar.        Jun.       Sep.       2007    Mar. A      Jun. A     Sep. A       2008    Mar. A      2009E           2010E          2011E
ASSETS
  CURRENT ASSETS
  Cash and cash equivalents                                6,591      4,786      9,359      7,089     10,410      5,749     18,510     17,483     41,331     46,247     47,864         20,394         12,338
  Accounts receivable, net                               125,744    126,023    143,733    148,124    135,260    145,749    148,468    136,623    106,954    116,219    111,323        113,362        125,263
  Expenditures billable to clients                        28,077     42,310     19,655     14,167     19,409     29,001     28,781     25,384     16,949     18,380     17,796         18,864         19,996
  Prepaid expenses                                         4,816      8,361      8,635      7,609      5,937      6,707      6,159      6,400      5,240      5,668      5,668          5,668          5,668
  Other Current Assets                                     1,248      1,446       3913       2005       2422       2504       2441       2419       5270       5145      5,145          5,145          5,145
Total current assets                                     166,476    182,926    185,295    178,994    173,438    189,710    204,359    188,309    175,744    191,659    187,797        163,433        168,410
    Fixed assets                                          44,425     44,536     42,594     46,428     47,440     47,591     48,018     45,451     44,021     40,798     42,921         45,418         43,822
    Investment in affiliates                               2,058      2,015        861        394      1,434      1,657      1,748      1,871      1,593      1,692      1,692          1,692          1,692
    Goodwill                                             203,693    199,381    207,924    219,709    217,726    224,240    227,772    227,294    238,214    237,270    237,270        237,270        237,270
    Other intangible assets                               48,933     47,696     49,955     40,132     55,399     51,010     47,566     44,347     46,852     43,257     43,257         43,257         43,257
    Deferred tax assets                                   13,332     13,505     13,563     14,493      9,175     10,182      8,331      6,952     11,926     11,321     12,224         12,224         12,224
    Other assets                                          14,584     14,334     17,704     16,938     16,086     15,300     14,877     14,491     10,889     10,088     10,209         10,209         10,209
Total Assets                                             493,501    504,393    517,896    517,088    520,698    539,690    552,671    528,715    529,239    536,085    535,370        513,503        516,884
CURRENT LIABILITIES
  Revolving credit facility                               45,000     78,350
  Accounts payable                                        90,588     68,753     97,224     68,172     65,839     58,756     76,895     64,662     75,360     66,353     72,349         78,860         82,015
  Accounts payable turns                                     3.4        3.3        5.6        4.9        6.6        6.0        5.0        5.9        5.0        5.0        7.9            8.5            8.4
  Accrued and other liabilities                           75,315     63,057     62,853     68,229     74,668     64,532     77,176     63,594     55,338     58,985     53,866         53,866         53,866
  Advanced billings                                       51,804     73,576     52,039     47,339     50,988     74,519     70,227     68,852     50,053     56,663     50,053         50,053         50,053
  Current portion of longterm debt                         1,177      1,129        704      1,777      1,796      1,855      1,896      1,599      1,546      1,519      1,519                           -
  Deferred acquisition consideration                       2,721       2037       1359         320      2511       2223       2442       2413       5538       3436      3,436          3,436          3,436
Total current liabilities                                271,515    287,436    214,179    185,837    195,802    201,885    228,636    201,120    187,835    186,956    177,787        182,779        185,934
  Longterm debt                                            5,754       5658     62,162     79,258    115,662    115,927    115,856    115,063    133,305    132,872    131,872        131,872        111,872
  Revolving credit facility                                                     22,215     25,631      1,901     18,561      6,801     10,302      9,701     19,567     19,567         19,567         19,567
  Convertible notes                                       38,613     38,975     42,238     45,235     45,395     43,838     44,131     42,285     36,946     35,677     38,424             (0)            (0)
  Other liabilities                                        5,512      5,488      6,239      7,068      8,267      8,624      8,779      8,878      6,949      8,914      9,909          9,909          9,909
  Deferred tax                                             1,140       1136       1148       5282         819       530        552        596      4,700      4,589      5,284          5,284           6284
Total liabilities                                        322,534    338,693    348,181    348,311    367,846    389,365    404,755    378,244    379,436    388,575    382,843        349,411        333,566
COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES
SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY
Minority interests                                        46,553     47,370     48,125     48,093     24,919     25,940     25,893     26,063     22,622     57,037     56,683         58,300         58,299
Total shareholders equity                                124,414    118,330    121,590    120,684    127,933    124,385    122,023    124,408    127,181     90,473     95,843        105,791        125,019
Total liabilities and shareholders equity                493,501    504,393    517,896    517,088    520,698    539,690    552,671    528,715    529,239    536,085    535,370        513,503        516,884
Book value per share                                     $10.09     $10.60     $10.71     $10.37      $9.90      $9.87     $10.35      $9.48      $9.06      $9.42      $9.06          $8.00          $8.12
Cash Per Share                                            $0.28      $0.20      $0.39      $0.29      $0.42      $0.21      $0.69      $0.64      $1.53      $1.71      $1.70          $0.70          $0.42
Shares                                                   23,875     24,275     24,275     24,800     25,001     26,800     26,800     27,116     26,958     27,116     28,116         29,116         29,116
Current ratio                                                0.61       0.64       0.87       0.96       0.89       0.94       0.89       0.94       0.94       1.03       1.06   #       0.89   #       0.91
Acid test ratio                                             0.59       0.60       0.81       0.91       0.84       0.89       0.86       0.89       0.88       0.97       1.00    #      0.83    #      0.85
Long Term Debt to Capital                                  22.6%      23.2%      43.9%      48.2%      52.8%      55.4%      54.3%      54.0%      55.5%      57.2%      56.7%    #     49.6%    #     43.5%
Total Debt                                                95,454    124,646    105,104    126,270    162,853    161,620    161,883    158,947    171,797    170,068    171,815        131,872        111,872
Longterm Debt                                             44,367     44,633    126,615    150,124    162,958    178,326    166,788    167,650    179,952    188,116    189,863        151,439        131,439
Leverage Ratio                                               0.8        3.5        2.3        2.7        3.3        3.2        3.0        2.8        2.4        2.2        1.8    #       1.5    #       2.1
Debt Ratio                                                  0.43       0.51       0.46       0.51       0.56       0.57       0.57       0.56       0.57       0.65       0.64    #      0.55    #      0.47
EBITDA-to-interst coverage ratio                             3.5        0.9        4.3        3.6        4.4        2.7        5.2        2.8        4.1        2.7        4.1    #       3.4    #       7.8
Days sales outstanding                                      99.8      128.3      100.6       98.6       92.6       90.7      104.3       89.1       75.6       82.7       83.0           64.4           86.0
Accounts payable days                                      107.4      109.5       65.7       74.2       55.1       60.7       73.0       61.5       73.0       73.0       46.3    #      43.0    #      43.4
Return on invested capital (ROIC)                          4.5%       2.6%       4.9%       3.4%       6.2%       4.7%       5.5%       5.7%       5.5%       6.6%       8.4%          13.7%          17.8%
ROAE                                                        NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         3.6% #         9.9% #        16.7%
ROAA                                                        NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         NM         0.8% #         1.9% #         3.7%
Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
Table 3.
MDC PARTNERS STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS
(All figures in $000s except where noted)                         2007        Mar. A           Jun. A           Sep. A          Dec             2008           Mar. A     2009E           2010E           2011E
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Net Income/loss                                                    (26,355)       (3,394)          (4,470)           3,250             4,747          133          411         9,972         16,272          28,080
Income (loss) from non-controlling interests                        (7,277)        2,001           (5,841)               0            (6,175)     (10,015)        (382)       (4,228)        (4,324)         (6,852)
Net income (loss) attributable to MDC Partners Inc.                (19,078)       (1,393)           1,371            3,250             6,920       10,148           29         5,745         11,948          21,228
Loss from discontinued operations                                                                                                                                 (252)       (1,752)        (2,000)         (2,000)
Income (loss) attributable to MDC Partners Inc. from continuing                                                                                                    281         7,497         13,948          23,228
Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss)
Depreciation                                                        14,638         6,046            2,288            4,270          4,155         16,759         4,017        17,317         15,176          13,416
Amortization of intangibles                                         14,608         4,042            6,406            3,275          3,922         17,645         3,576        14,169         12,416          10,976
Stock-based compensation                                             9,088         1,759            1,699            1,595          8,490         13,543         1,686         8,700          9,000          10,000
Goodwill and intagible impairment charges                                                                                0              0
Amortization and write-off of deferred finance charges               2,330             346            342              348            312           1,348         318              318             318             318
Deferred income taxes                                                5,253                            577            1,423         (2,960)           (960)        490             (298)           (300)           (300)
Gain (loss) on disposal of assets and long-term debt                (1,691)                             3              110             29             142
Earnings of non consolidated affiliates                               (165)         (140)             (81)             (69)           (59)           (349)         (93)         (584)           (400)          (400)
Foreign exchange and other                                           7,278        (4,117)           1,055           (2,565)        (8,940)        (14,567)      (1,999)       (1,999)         (1,999)        (1,999)
Minority interest and other                                          3,754           725              205              (49)        (2,165)         (1,284)       2,126         2,311           2,500          2,500
Changes in non-cash working capital                                                                                                     0
Accounts recievable                                                (12,712)      (10,681)          (2,694)          11,809         27,882          26,316       (9,259)       (4,369)         (2,038)       (11,901)
Expenditures billable to clients                                     8,635        (9,592)             217            3,400          8,129           2,154       (1,431)      (11,961)         (1,068)        (1,132)
Prepaid expenses and other current assets                           (1,160)         (851)             596             (221)         2,113           1,637         (256)         (684)              0              0
Accounts payable, acrruals and other liabilities                   (25,083)      (20,289)          30,084          (25,823)         4,283         (11,745)      (5,138)       (3,011)          6,511          3,154
Advance billings                                                    (1,662)       23,420           (4,395)          (1,375)       (17,492)            158        6,610           -
Cash flow from continuing operations                                 4,033       (10,725)          48,398             (622)        23,894          60,945          928        29,607         26,472          34,444
Discountinued operations                                                99           275              (69)              93         (3,798)         (3,499)        (368)       (2,000)        (2,000)         (3,000)
Net cash provided by operating activities                            4,132       (10,450)          33,605             (529)        34,820          57,446          560        27,607         24,472          31,444
Cash flows from investing activities
Capital expenditures                                               (20,072)       (4,223)          (4,416)          (2,083)        (3,673)        (14,395)        (830)       (5,000)         (5,000)        (5,000)
Acquisitions, net of cash                                          (47,648)       (5,737)          (4,295)            (623)       (25,186)        (35,841)      (3,352)       (8,000)         (7,000)       (14,500)
Proceeds from asset sales                                            8,270           136               93              210           (197)            242            2
Other investments                                                   (1,464)         (109)              (5)             244           (215)            (85)
Distributions from non-consolidated affiliates                                                         68             (260)           632             440          59             395
Discontinued operations                                                  0                                                           (547)           (547)
Net cash used in investing activities                              (60,914)       (9,933)          (8,555)          (2,512)       (29,186)        (50,186)      (4,121)      (24,110)        (12,000)       (19,500)
Cash flow from financing activities
Increase (decrease) in bank indebtedness                            (4,910)
Payments under old credit facility                                 (45,000)
Proceeds from new credit facility                                    1,901        16,660          (11,760)           3,501          (601)          7,800         9,866
Proceeds from term loan                                            111,500                                               0        18,500          18,500
Repayment of long-term debt                                         (5,843)            (200)            (243)       (1,169)         (272)         (1,884)         (635)       (1,000)       (39,943)        (20,000)
Deferred financing costs                                            (3,946)                                              0             0
Issuance of share capital                                            4,893                                                             0
Proceeds from stock subscription recievable                                                                3              (2)         (1)                           13              13
Purchase of treasury shares                                           (769)            (874)              (2)            (20)        (10)              (906)      (320)           (320)
Proceeds from note payable                                           3,250                                                             0
Discontinued operations                                               (147)                                                            0
                                                                                                                                       0
Net cash provided by finacing activities                            60,929        15,586          (12,002)           2,310        17,616          23,510         8,924        (1,307)       (39,943)        (20,000)
Effect of exchange rate on cash                                       (328)          136             (287)            (296)          598             151          (447)         (573)
                                                                                                                                       0
Net increase (decrease) in cash                                      3,819        (4,661)          12,761           (1,027)       23,848          30,921         4,916         1,617        (27,471)         (8,056)
Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period                       6,591        10,410            5,749           18,510        17,483          10,410        41,331        46,247         47,864          20,394
                                                                                                                                       0
Cash and cash equivalaents, end of period                           10,410         5,749           18,510           17,483        41,331          41,331        46,247        47,864         20,394          12,338
Free cash flow (FCF)                                               (15,940)      (14,673)          29,189           (2,612)       31,147          43,051          (270)       22,607         19,472          26,444
Cash per share                                                       $0.42         $0.21            $0.69            $0.64         $1.52           $1.53         $1.71         $1.70          $0.70           $0.42
Operating cash flow per share                                        $0.17        ($0.39)           $1.25           ($0.02)        $1.28           $2.13         $0.02         $0.98          $0.84           $1.08
Free cash flow per share (FCF)                                      ($0.64)       ($0.55)           $1.09           ($0.10)        $1.15           $1.60        ($0.01)        $0.80          $0.67           $0.91
Simple cash flow per share                                          ($0.69)        $0.09           ($0.01)           $0.32         $0.34           $0.75         $0.26         $1.30          $1.33           $1.63
Yield to FCF                                                           NM            NM               NM               NM          27.3%           15.2%         -0.1%          7.7%           6.4%            8.6%
Simple cash yield                                                      NM           1.1%            -0.1%             3.8%          4.0%            7.1%          2.5%         12.3%          12.7%           15.5%
Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
Price Chart




              June 24, 2009
              BUY
              Target:$9
              PX: $5.64
Research at Albert Fried & Company LLC © Copyright 2009
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES


The Albert Fried & Company LLC Equity Research rating system consists of BUY, MARKET PERFORM and SELL
recommendations. NC, denotes “Not Covered”.

BUY suggests capital appreciation of at least 30% from initiation of coverage over the next 12 months, while MARKET PER-
FORM denotes that a stock is not likely to provide similar gains over a 12-month period and SELL suggests a price decline of 30%
over the next 12-month period .

As of 01/01/09, Albert Fried & Company LLC provides research on 2 companies, of which 1 (50%) are rated BUY and 0 (0%) are
rated Market Perform and are rated SELL 1 (50%) .

Of the BUYS, Albert Fried & Company, LLC has received investment banking income from 0 companies (0%).

Of the BUY 0 (0%) trade above and 0 (0%) trade below our price targets.
Of the MARKET PERFORM, 0 (0%) trade above and 0 (0%) trade below our price targets.
Of the SELL. 0 (0%) trade above and 1(100%) trade below our price targets.



Any estimates or forecasts may not be met. This report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual
results may differ materially from the projections described in the forward-looking statements. The material contained in this report is for
informational purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer or recommendation, to buy or sell securities mentioned. Neither Albert Fried
& Company LLC nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accepts any liability or responsibility for the accuracy or
completeness of this publication and none of them makes any representation or warranty in relation thereto. Recipients of this report should
conduct their own investigation, confirmation and analysis of the information contained in this publication. Much of the company-specific
data and information in this report was obtained directly from the company’s SEC filings, reputable news wires or the company’s manage-
ment. No recipient should act on the basis of any matter contained in this publication without considering and, if necessary, taking appropri-
ate legal, financial, and other professional advice upon the recipient’s own particular circumstances. Investors are advised to undertake their
own investigation of the merits of investing in the Companies profiled in this report. Information contained herein is based on sources we
believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee their accuracy. Prices and opinions concerning the composition of market sectors included in
this report reflect the judgments as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Reprints of Albert Fried & Company LLC
reports are prohibited without permission.

The research analyst (Richard R Tullo) certifies on May 29, 2009 that this report accurately reflects his/her personal views about the subject
securities and issuers and that none of the research analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the analyst's
specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.

Occasionally, Albert Fried & Company LLC may receive a fee, directly or indirectly, at the time of an underwriting for an individual
company already under research coverage, for which the covering analyst will not be compensated. Albert Fried & Company LLC, or
persons associated with it may own securities of the issues described herein and may make purchases or sales while this report is in
circulation. Albert Fried & Company LLC, policy does not allow any analyst to own shares in any company he/she covers. No employee or
household member thereof, serves as an officer or director of a covered company. Albert Fried & Company LLC does not make a market in
any securities contained in this report. Additional information is available upon request.

OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Communications Under FINRA Rule 2711 the term research report does not include:

          A) communications that are limited to the following
                    i) discussions of broad-based indices;
                    ii) commentaries on economic, political or market conditions
                    iv) statistical summaries of multiple companies' financial data, including listings of current ratings;
                    V) recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or sectors;
          (B) the following communications, even if they include an analysis of an individual equity security and information
       reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision:
                    (i) any communication distributed to fewer than 15 persons

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Al Fried Llc Custom Analytics Report Mdca (2711 Exempt) 062409

  • 1. Rich Tullo Trading Desk Analyst rtullo@albertfried.com (212) 422 – 7282 June 24, 2009 Internal Distribution Only MDC Partners Inc. NASDAQ: MDCA BUY Price: $5.64 Price Target: $9.00 Stock Chart MCAP.: 178mm Shares Out.: 28mm Avg. Vol. 39,000 Short Int.: 17,891 10 day: 52 Week 52 Week $8.76 $2.19 High: Low: Year 2007 2008 2009E 2010E EV/EBITDA: 4x P/BV: 1.8 Revenue 547,319 584,648 580,472 636,570 EPS ($1.05) $0.00 $0.14 $0.34 Notes: GAAP Earnings include $0.34 and $0.48 in non-cash executive stock compensation expenses in 2007 and 2008. Estimates include $0.31 and $0.34 in non-cash executive stock compensation. Initiate Coverage of MDCA with a BUY Rating and $9.00 Target, We Like MDCA’s Strate- gic Position and Prospects for Market Share Gains in 2009-2010 Key Points: • We think MDC Partners (NASDAQ: MDCA BUY) shares are attractive; prior to a rebound in global Ad spending, we ex- pect MDCA to benefit from increased spending on creative advertising services. • MDCA has limited top-line exposure to auto manufacturers as its clients (Volkswagen and BMW ) have had only mod- est sales declines (-12% and -27% respectively) as compared to U.S. domestic manufactures (–36% to –42%). • We like MDCA’s core clientele of fast food and family restaurants such as Burger King (NYSE BKH, NC) and Domino’s Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) as they are stable advertisers in our view. • We expect MDCA to offset a $30 million decline in CRM revenue in 2009 with an increase in SMS or agency revenue. • MDCA’s balance sheet has improved and we expect MDCA to retire its 8%, $45 million, CDN 2010 convertible bonds with its existing credit lines and the cash balances. • We derive our $9 target by applying a 6x peer group EV-to-EBITDA multiple to our 2010 $68 million EBITDA estimate. Our target implies roughly 57% upside from the current price. Thus we initiate coverage with A BUY rating. See important notes, disclosures and disclaimers on page 6,7 before making investment decisions.
  • 2. Company Overview: MDC Partners, Inc. is and advertising industry holding company. MDCA, through its subsidiaries, provides marketing . communications services primarily in the United States, Canada, Europe, Jamaica, and Philippines. It operates through three segments: Strategic Marketing Services, Customer Relationship Management, and Specialized Communication Services. MDC Partners also offers advertising, retail and event marketing, and consumer promotion services. The company was formerly known as MDC Corporation, Inc. and changed its name to MDC Partners, Inc. in January 2004. MDC Partners, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada. MDCA benefits more from the growth in Internet and interactive advertising, compared with its peer group, since roughly 40% of the com- pany’s business is in digital innovation and direct response. Since 2005, MDCA’s advertising revenue expanded roughly 42%, compared with 30% for the peer group and 47% for Internet advertising, because MDCA’s agencies are industry thought leaders and delivered suc- cessful interactive ad campaigns. Specifically, MDCA’s two largest agency holdings, Crispen Porter and Bogusky (CP+B) agency and Kirshenbaum Bond and Partners (KBP) have won agency awards and more importantly high profile clients. In 2008, CP+B began work on the Microsoft (NASD: MSFT, NC) and Best Buy (NYSE; BBY, NC) campaigns and KBP began work on Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN,NC). We think CP+B’s strength is selling to the 18-30 year-old age demographic (also know as the millennial generation) and KBP strong suit is selling to mature tech-savvy customers. MDCA’s largest Auto manufacturing client, Volkswagen, just surpassed Ford in global market share: We think MDCA’s SMS sales visibility is strong versus the holding company peer group with exposure to the Big Three US Auto manufactures. MDCA benefits from Volks- wagen’s strategic goals and its commitment to maintain ad spending. Currently, Volkswagen sells about 700,000 vehicles in the US and plans to increase US sales to 1.3 million units by offering fuel efficient clean-diesel cars made in Europe, the US and Brazil. In contrast, to U.S. automakers (which have cut ad spending by roughly 50%) Volkswagen plans maintain its current level of ad spending according to comments made by Volkswagen’s marketing manager Tim Ellis. In May, Volkswagen sales were down just 12% versus lower sales at the Big Three and Toyota which where down 33% and 41% respectively (according to Auto Data) and we credit Volkswagen performance to investment in advertising. MDCA will benefit, in our view, from consumer electronics in 2009 : We expect MDCA to benefit from the new Microsoft Windows (NASDAQ: MSFT) 7.0 launch in 3Q:09: The aforementioned CP+B is also the agency of record for Microsoft’s Windows products. CP+B was hired by Microsoft to help rebuild its brand to counter Apple’s (NASD: AAPL) aggressive negative advertising. We think MSFT contrib- uted $15 million or about 2.5% to MSFT’s top line in 2008. We expect MSFT will increase ad spending in the run-up to it’s its windows launch and offset weakness MDCA might incur owing to a recessionary economy. As CP+B is Best Buy’s creative Ad Agency we think the company will benefit from increasing competition between Wal-Mart and Best Buy and the surge in new consumer electronics such as smart phones and LED TV’s. As ad rates remain challenged we expect MDCA’s fast food clients to maintain advertising budgets: MDCA’s revenue is weighted to fast- food and family restaurants -owing to its strength with millennials. MDCA’s clients include; Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN,NC), Dominoes Pizza (NYSE: DPZ, NC) , Arby’s (is division of NYSE:WEN, NC), International House of Pancakes (NYSE:IHOP,NC), PF Changs (NYSE: PFC, NC), Churches Chicken and Subway (in Canada). We think, fast service restaurants benefit as budget conscious con- sumers switched from higher priced restaurants. The restaurant business is highly competitive and advertising intensive. As ad rates across all media have plummeted; restaurant ad budget have stayed the same or increased as advertisers can buy more media impres- sions per dollar. As MDCA’s margins improve ; we expect MDCA to pay down debt. Owing to its acquisition strategy from (2001 to 2006) MDCA has large non-cash expenses therefore GAAP earnings in our view is not the best measure of MDCA’s income. We use EBITDA (defined as Earnings before interest , taxes, depreciation minority interest) and as MDCA’s EBITDA expanded to $41 million in 2008 from $31 million in 2007 cash on its balance sheet has expanded to $46 million at the end of 1Q:09. Thus the $45 million in MDCA 8% convertible notes coming due in 2010 are not a great risk, in our opinion as, MDCA has ample liquidity. Risks to Thesis: MDCA through its Accent CRM division operates call centers for Sprint. Sprint had been losing market share and inves- tors became concerned about MDCA’s CRM franchise. Ironically as Sprint has improved its service offering high touch customer com- plaints have declined. Thus the need for CRM services has diminished. As a result we expect CRM revenues to decline about $35 million in 2009. While we think our estimates are realistic MDCA failure to offset CRM revenue with SMS sales could result in down-side to our estimates. Estimates and Target: Despite a decline in CRM revenue, we expect only a modest decline in MDCA’s top-line (to $580 million in 2009 from $584 in 2008). As MDCA cuts cost we expect EBITDA to grow roughly 15% to $53 million in 2009 (from $46 million in 2008) and a modest gain in EPS to $0.14. As the global economic outlook improves in 2010, we expect MDCA’s top-line to expand 10%, EBITDA to expand 28% to $68 million and EPS to nearly double to $0.34. We value MDCA by using the ratio of EV-to-EBITDA. We think the overhang related to MDCA’s CRM franchise creates an opportunity to BUY MDCA shares at a discount to its peers. MDCA’s current $5.70 price level implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 4x which is a significant discount to the 6x peer group multiple. To derive our $9 target, we apply a 6X multiple to our $68 million 2010 EBITDA esti- mate. We argue MDCA deserves a least a peer group multiple as MDCA is a industry thought leader with exposure to growing clients and with almost 60% upside to our target we think investors should BUY MDCA shares.
  • 3. Table 1. MDC PARTNERS INCOME STATEMENT (All figures in $000s except where noted) 2007 A Mar. A Jun.A Sep. A Dec.A 2008 A Mar. A Jun. E Sep. E Dec. E 2009E Mar. E Jun. E Sep. E Dec. E 2010E Revenue $547,319 $143,344 $158,275 $126,738 $156,291 $584,648 $126,738 $145,613 $133,075 $175,046 $580,472 $145,115 $152,602 $159,956 $178,897 $636,570 Operating Expenses Cost of services sold 351,851 97,591 104,012 85,879 104,663 392,145 85,879 99,017 90,491 122,532 397,919 100,129 105,296 108,770 121,650 435,845 Office and general expenses 143,207 35,849 37,480 31,152 33,274 137,755 31,152 31,775 30,341 31,508 124,776 32,506 33,878 31,991 31,486 129,861 Depreciation and amortization 29,246 10,088 8,708 7,593 8,015 34,404 7,593 7,274 7,020 6,986 28,873 6,898 6,898 6,898 6,898 27,592 Other charges (recoveries) Goodwill and intangible impairment Total Operating Expenses 524,304 143,528 150,200 124,624 145,952 564,304 124,624 138,066 127,852 161,026 551,568 139,533 146,071 147,659 160,034 593,298 Operating Profit 23,015 (184) 8,075 2,114 10,339 20,344 2,114 7,547 5,223 14,020 28,904 5,582 6,531 12,297 18,863 43,273 Operating margin % 4.2% -0.1% 5.1% 1.7% 6.6% 3.5% 1.7% 5.2% 3.9% 8.0% 5.0% 3.8% 4.3% 7.7% 10.5% 6.8% Other Income (Expenses) Gain on sale of assets, settlement of long-term debt 3,065 (14) (14) Other income and foreign exchange gain, (loss) (7,192) 3,603 (527) 2,629 7,552 13,257 2,629 (200) (200) (200) 2,029 (200) (200) (200) (200) (800) Interest expense (13,672) (3,889) (3,413) (3,633) (4,064) (14,998) (3,761) (3,761) (3,761) (3,761) (15,044) (4,305) (4,305) (4,305) (4,305) (17,220) Interest income 1,726 206 173 203 1161 1743 203 203 203 203 812 300 300 300 300 1200 Total Other Income (Expenses) (16,073) (80) (3,767) (801) 4,635 (12) (929) (3,758) (3,758) (3,758) (12,203) (4,205) (4,205) (4,205) (4,205) (16,820) Income from continuing operations before taxes 6,942 (264) 4,308 1,313 14,974 20,332 1,185 3,789 1,465 10,262 16,701 1,377 2,326 8,092 14,658 26,453 b/f taxes, equity in affiliates and minority interests Income taxes 5,620 (825) 3,943 615 (1,336) 2,397 615 1,515 586 4,105 6,821 (551) (930) (3237) (5863) (10581) Income from continuing operations 1,322 561 365 698 16,310 17,935 570 2,273 879 6,157 9,879 826 1,396 4,855 8,795 15,872 b/f equity in affiliates and minority interests Equity in earnings of non-consolidated affiliates 165 140 81 93 100 349 93 100 100 100 393 100 100 100 100 400 Minority interests in income of consolidated subsidiaries (20,565) (2,094) (2,869) (382) (2,791) (8,136) - (8,047) (8,660) (9,387) (10,951) (37,045) Income (loss) from continuing operations (19,078) (1,393) (2,504) 409 13,635 10,148 663 2,273 879 6,157 9,972 926 1,496 4,955 8,895 16,272 Net income margin % -3.5% -1.0% -1.6% 0.3% 8.7% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 3.1% 5.0% 2.6% Income (loss) from discontinued operations (7,277) (252) (9,763) (10,015) (252) (500) (500) (500) (1752) (500) (500) (500) (500) ($2,000) Net income attributed to non-controlling interests (382) (1186) (979) (1680) (4228) (662) (738) (1199) (1724) (4324) % Income from Continuing opes -4% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% Net Income (Loss) (26,355) (1,253) (2,504) 157 3,872 133 29 588 (600) 3,976 3,993 (236) 258 3,256 6,670 9,948 Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share: Basic Continuing operations (0.76) (0.05) (0.09) 0.02 0.51 0.38 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.25 0.39 0.04 0.06 0.20 0.36 0.66 Discontinued operations and changes in accounting (0.29) (0.08) (0.07) (0) (0.21) (0.37) (0) Net loss ($1.05) ($0.13) ($0.16) $0.01 $0.30 $0.01 $0.00 $0.02 ($0.02) $0.16 $0.16 ($0.01) $0.01 $0.13 $0.27 $0.40 Diluted Continuing operations (0.76) (0.05) (0.09) 0.02 0.50 0.38 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.25 0.40 (0.01) 0.01 0.13 0.27 0.40 Discontinued operations and non-controlling (0.01) (0.36) (0.37) (0.01) (0.07) (0.06) (0.11) (0.26) 0.00 (0.00) (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) Net Income (loss) per share ($1.05) ($0.05) ($0.09) $0.01 $0.14 $0.00 $0.00 $0.02 ($0.02) $0.14 $0.14 ($0.01) $0.01 $0.11 $0.23 $0.34 Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding: Basic 25,001 26,800 26,800 27,116 26,800 26,800 26,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 Diluted 25,001 26,800 26,800 27,116 27,116 26,958 27,116 27,116 29,116 29,116 28,116 29,116 29,116 29,116 29,116 29,116 MDC share of Ebitda (TTM) 31,696 33,908 41,770 43,694 46,612 46,612 48,127 47,848 49,787 53,549 53,549 56,542 56,098 63,330 68,541 68,541 EV 352,556 362,073 337,477 339,979 317,677 273,411 251,852 277,710 312,899 296,345 254,463 192,449 264,546 408,740 676,906 297,006 EV/EBITDA 11.1 10.7 8.1 7.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 5.8 6.3 4.8 4.8 3.4 4.7 6.5 4.3 4.3 (Earnings before intrest,taxes, depreciation and amortization less minority intrest) Other per Share Ebitda Per Share (diluted) $2.09 $0.37 $0.63 $0.36 $0.68 $2.03 $0.36 $0.55 $0.42 $0.72 $2.05 $0.28 $0.32 $0.51 $0.74 $1.86 MDC Share of Ebitda (basic) $1.27 $0.29 $0.52 $0.34 $0.58 $1.74 $0.35 $0.55 $0.45 $0.78 $2.16 $0.50 $0.53 $0.75 $0.99 $2.76 MDCA Share of Ebitda (per share diluted) $1.27 $0.29 $0.52 $0.34 $0.57 $1.73 $0.34 $0.50 $0.39 $0.66 $1.90 $0.42 $0.45 $0.64 $0.84 $2.35 Percentage of Sales Gross Margin % 35.7% 33.3% 34.3% 32.2% 36.0% 32.9% 32.2% 32.0% 32.0% 30.0% 31.4% 31.0% 31.0% 32.0% 32.0% 31.5% Ebit margin % NM NM -1.9% 2.5% 5.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% 5.1% 8.2% 4.2% Ebitda Margin % 9.5% 6.9% 10.6% 7.7% 11.7% 9.4% 7.7% 10.2% 9.2% 12.0% 10.0% 5.7% 6.0% 9.4% 12.0% 8.5% Net Income Margin % NM NM NM 0.3% 8.7% NM 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 3.1% 5.0% 2.6% YOY Performance Measures Gross Margin 11% 16% -4% -17% -13% -2% -14% -14% 4% 6% -5% 10% 2% 20% 9% 10% Operating profit 73% NM 56% NM NM NM NM -7% 147% 36% 42% 164% -13% 135% 35% 50% Ebitda NM 326% 46% -23% NM 5% -2% -12% 26% 14% 6% -15% -38% 22% 3% -6% Net Income 29% -84% -3% -106% -291% -153% -148% -191% 115% -55% NM 40% -34% 464% 44% 63% Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
  • 4. Table 2. MDC PARTNERS BALANCE SHEET (All figures in $000s except where noted) 2006 Mar. Jun. Sep. 2007 Mar. A Jun. A Sep. A 2008 Mar. A 2009E 2010E 2011E ASSETS CURRENT ASSETS Cash and cash equivalents 6,591 4,786 9,359 7,089 10,410 5,749 18,510 17,483 41,331 46,247 47,864 20,394 12,338 Accounts receivable, net 125,744 126,023 143,733 148,124 135,260 145,749 148,468 136,623 106,954 116,219 111,323 113,362 125,263 Expenditures billable to clients 28,077 42,310 19,655 14,167 19,409 29,001 28,781 25,384 16,949 18,380 17,796 18,864 19,996 Prepaid expenses 4,816 8,361 8,635 7,609 5,937 6,707 6,159 6,400 5,240 5,668 5,668 5,668 5,668 Other Current Assets 1,248 1,446 3913 2005 2422 2504 2441 2419 5270 5145 5,145 5,145 5,145 Total current assets 166,476 182,926 185,295 178,994 173,438 189,710 204,359 188,309 175,744 191,659 187,797 163,433 168,410 Fixed assets 44,425 44,536 42,594 46,428 47,440 47,591 48,018 45,451 44,021 40,798 42,921 45,418 43,822 Investment in affiliates 2,058 2,015 861 394 1,434 1,657 1,748 1,871 1,593 1,692 1,692 1,692 1,692 Goodwill 203,693 199,381 207,924 219,709 217,726 224,240 227,772 227,294 238,214 237,270 237,270 237,270 237,270 Other intangible assets 48,933 47,696 49,955 40,132 55,399 51,010 47,566 44,347 46,852 43,257 43,257 43,257 43,257 Deferred tax assets 13,332 13,505 13,563 14,493 9,175 10,182 8,331 6,952 11,926 11,321 12,224 12,224 12,224 Other assets 14,584 14,334 17,704 16,938 16,086 15,300 14,877 14,491 10,889 10,088 10,209 10,209 10,209 Total Assets 493,501 504,393 517,896 517,088 520,698 539,690 552,671 528,715 529,239 536,085 535,370 513,503 516,884 CURRENT LIABILITIES Revolving credit facility 45,000 78,350 Accounts payable 90,588 68,753 97,224 68,172 65,839 58,756 76,895 64,662 75,360 66,353 72,349 78,860 82,015 Accounts payable turns 3.4 3.3 5.6 4.9 6.6 6.0 5.0 5.9 5.0 5.0 7.9 8.5 8.4 Accrued and other liabilities 75,315 63,057 62,853 68,229 74,668 64,532 77,176 63,594 55,338 58,985 53,866 53,866 53,866 Advanced billings 51,804 73,576 52,039 47,339 50,988 74,519 70,227 68,852 50,053 56,663 50,053 50,053 50,053 Current portion of longterm debt 1,177 1,129 704 1,777 1,796 1,855 1,896 1,599 1,546 1,519 1,519 - Deferred acquisition consideration 2,721 2037 1359 320 2511 2223 2442 2413 5538 3436 3,436 3,436 3,436 Total current liabilities 271,515 287,436 214,179 185,837 195,802 201,885 228,636 201,120 187,835 186,956 177,787 182,779 185,934 Longterm debt 5,754 5658 62,162 79,258 115,662 115,927 115,856 115,063 133,305 132,872 131,872 131,872 111,872 Revolving credit facility 22,215 25,631 1,901 18,561 6,801 10,302 9,701 19,567 19,567 19,567 19,567 Convertible notes 38,613 38,975 42,238 45,235 45,395 43,838 44,131 42,285 36,946 35,677 38,424 (0) (0) Other liabilities 5,512 5,488 6,239 7,068 8,267 8,624 8,779 8,878 6,949 8,914 9,909 9,909 9,909 Deferred tax 1,140 1136 1148 5282 819 530 552 596 4,700 4,589 5,284 5,284 6284 Total liabilities 322,534 338,693 348,181 348,311 367,846 389,365 404,755 378,244 379,436 388,575 382,843 349,411 333,566 COMMITMENTS AND CONTINGENCIES SHAREHOLDERS EQUITY Minority interests 46,553 47,370 48,125 48,093 24,919 25,940 25,893 26,063 22,622 57,037 56,683 58,300 58,299 Total shareholders equity 124,414 118,330 121,590 120,684 127,933 124,385 122,023 124,408 127,181 90,473 95,843 105,791 125,019 Total liabilities and shareholders equity 493,501 504,393 517,896 517,088 520,698 539,690 552,671 528,715 529,239 536,085 535,370 513,503 516,884 Book value per share $10.09 $10.60 $10.71 $10.37 $9.90 $9.87 $10.35 $9.48 $9.06 $9.42 $9.06 $8.00 $8.12 Cash Per Share $0.28 $0.20 $0.39 $0.29 $0.42 $0.21 $0.69 $0.64 $1.53 $1.71 $1.70 $0.70 $0.42 Shares 23,875 24,275 24,275 24,800 25,001 26,800 26,800 27,116 26,958 27,116 28,116 29,116 29,116 Current ratio 0.61 0.64 0.87 0.96 0.89 0.94 0.89 0.94 0.94 1.03 1.06 # 0.89 # 0.91 Acid test ratio 0.59 0.60 0.81 0.91 0.84 0.89 0.86 0.89 0.88 0.97 1.00 # 0.83 # 0.85 Long Term Debt to Capital 22.6% 23.2% 43.9% 48.2% 52.8% 55.4% 54.3% 54.0% 55.5% 57.2% 56.7% # 49.6% # 43.5% Total Debt 95,454 124,646 105,104 126,270 162,853 161,620 161,883 158,947 171,797 170,068 171,815 131,872 111,872 Longterm Debt 44,367 44,633 126,615 150,124 162,958 178,326 166,788 167,650 179,952 188,116 189,863 151,439 131,439 Leverage Ratio 0.8 3.5 2.3 2.7 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.8 # 1.5 # 2.1 Debt Ratio 0.43 0.51 0.46 0.51 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.56 0.57 0.65 0.64 # 0.55 # 0.47 EBITDA-to-interst coverage ratio 3.5 0.9 4.3 3.6 4.4 2.7 5.2 2.8 4.1 2.7 4.1 # 3.4 # 7.8 Days sales outstanding 99.8 128.3 100.6 98.6 92.6 90.7 104.3 89.1 75.6 82.7 83.0 64.4 86.0 Accounts payable days 107.4 109.5 65.7 74.2 55.1 60.7 73.0 61.5 73.0 73.0 46.3 # 43.0 # 43.4 Return on invested capital (ROIC) 4.5% 2.6% 4.9% 3.4% 6.2% 4.7% 5.5% 5.7% 5.5% 6.6% 8.4% 13.7% 17.8% ROAE NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 3.6% # 9.9% # 16.7% ROAA NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 0.8% # 1.9% # 3.7% Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
  • 5. Table 3. MDC PARTNERS STATEMENT OF CASH FLOWS (All figures in $000s except where noted) 2007 Mar. A Jun. A Sep. A Dec 2008 Mar. A 2009E 2010E 2011E CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Net Income/loss (26,355) (3,394) (4,470) 3,250 4,747 133 411 9,972 16,272 28,080 Income (loss) from non-controlling interests (7,277) 2,001 (5,841) 0 (6,175) (10,015) (382) (4,228) (4,324) (6,852) Net income (loss) attributable to MDC Partners Inc. (19,078) (1,393) 1,371 3,250 6,920 10,148 29 5,745 11,948 21,228 Loss from discontinued operations (252) (1,752) (2,000) (2,000) Income (loss) attributable to MDC Partners Inc. from continuing 281 7,497 13,948 23,228 Adjustments to reconcile net income (loss) Depreciation 14,638 6,046 2,288 4,270 4,155 16,759 4,017 17,317 15,176 13,416 Amortization of intangibles 14,608 4,042 6,406 3,275 3,922 17,645 3,576 14,169 12,416 10,976 Stock-based compensation 9,088 1,759 1,699 1,595 8,490 13,543 1,686 8,700 9,000 10,000 Goodwill and intagible impairment charges 0 0 Amortization and write-off of deferred finance charges 2,330 346 342 348 312 1,348 318 318 318 318 Deferred income taxes 5,253 577 1,423 (2,960) (960) 490 (298) (300) (300) Gain (loss) on disposal of assets and long-term debt (1,691) 3 110 29 142 Earnings of non consolidated affiliates (165) (140) (81) (69) (59) (349) (93) (584) (400) (400) Foreign exchange and other 7,278 (4,117) 1,055 (2,565) (8,940) (14,567) (1,999) (1,999) (1,999) (1,999) Minority interest and other 3,754 725 205 (49) (2,165) (1,284) 2,126 2,311 2,500 2,500 Changes in non-cash working capital 0 Accounts recievable (12,712) (10,681) (2,694) 11,809 27,882 26,316 (9,259) (4,369) (2,038) (11,901) Expenditures billable to clients 8,635 (9,592) 217 3,400 8,129 2,154 (1,431) (11,961) (1,068) (1,132) Prepaid expenses and other current assets (1,160) (851) 596 (221) 2,113 1,637 (256) (684) 0 0 Accounts payable, acrruals and other liabilities (25,083) (20,289) 30,084 (25,823) 4,283 (11,745) (5,138) (3,011) 6,511 3,154 Advance billings (1,662) 23,420 (4,395) (1,375) (17,492) 158 6,610 - Cash flow from continuing operations 4,033 (10,725) 48,398 (622) 23,894 60,945 928 29,607 26,472 34,444 Discountinued operations 99 275 (69) 93 (3,798) (3,499) (368) (2,000) (2,000) (3,000) Net cash provided by operating activities 4,132 (10,450) 33,605 (529) 34,820 57,446 560 27,607 24,472 31,444 Cash flows from investing activities Capital expenditures (20,072) (4,223) (4,416) (2,083) (3,673) (14,395) (830) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) Acquisitions, net of cash (47,648) (5,737) (4,295) (623) (25,186) (35,841) (3,352) (8,000) (7,000) (14,500) Proceeds from asset sales 8,270 136 93 210 (197) 242 2 Other investments (1,464) (109) (5) 244 (215) (85) Distributions from non-consolidated affiliates 68 (260) 632 440 59 395 Discontinued operations 0 (547) (547) Net cash used in investing activities (60,914) (9,933) (8,555) (2,512) (29,186) (50,186) (4,121) (24,110) (12,000) (19,500) Cash flow from financing activities Increase (decrease) in bank indebtedness (4,910) Payments under old credit facility (45,000) Proceeds from new credit facility 1,901 16,660 (11,760) 3,501 (601) 7,800 9,866 Proceeds from term loan 111,500 0 18,500 18,500 Repayment of long-term debt (5,843) (200) (243) (1,169) (272) (1,884) (635) (1,000) (39,943) (20,000) Deferred financing costs (3,946) 0 0 Issuance of share capital 4,893 0 Proceeds from stock subscription recievable 3 (2) (1) 13 13 Purchase of treasury shares (769) (874) (2) (20) (10) (906) (320) (320) Proceeds from note payable 3,250 0 Discontinued operations (147) 0 0 Net cash provided by finacing activities 60,929 15,586 (12,002) 2,310 17,616 23,510 8,924 (1,307) (39,943) (20,000) Effect of exchange rate on cash (328) 136 (287) (296) 598 151 (447) (573) 0 Net increase (decrease) in cash 3,819 (4,661) 12,761 (1,027) 23,848 30,921 4,916 1,617 (27,471) (8,056) Cash and cash equivalents, beginning of period 6,591 10,410 5,749 18,510 17,483 10,410 41,331 46,247 47,864 20,394 0 Cash and cash equivalaents, end of period 10,410 5,749 18,510 17,483 41,331 41,331 46,247 47,864 20,394 12,338 Free cash flow (FCF) (15,940) (14,673) 29,189 (2,612) 31,147 43,051 (270) 22,607 19,472 26,444 Cash per share $0.42 $0.21 $0.69 $0.64 $1.52 $1.53 $1.71 $1.70 $0.70 $0.42 Operating cash flow per share $0.17 ($0.39) $1.25 ($0.02) $1.28 $2.13 $0.02 $0.98 $0.84 $1.08 Free cash flow per share (FCF) ($0.64) ($0.55) $1.09 ($0.10) $1.15 $1.60 ($0.01) $0.80 $0.67 $0.91 Simple cash flow per share ($0.69) $0.09 ($0.01) $0.32 $0.34 $0.75 $0.26 $1.30 $1.33 $1.63 Yield to FCF NM NM NM NM 27.3% 15.2% -0.1% 7.7% 6.4% 8.6% Simple cash yield NM 1.1% -0.1% 3.8% 4.0% 7.1% 2.5% 12.3% 12.7% 15.5% Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports
  • 6. Price Chart June 24, 2009 BUY Target:$9 PX: $5.64
  • 7. Research at Albert Fried & Company LLC © Copyright 2009 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES The Albert Fried & Company LLC Equity Research rating system consists of BUY, MARKET PERFORM and SELL recommendations. NC, denotes “Not Covered”. BUY suggests capital appreciation of at least 30% from initiation of coverage over the next 12 months, while MARKET PER- FORM denotes that a stock is not likely to provide similar gains over a 12-month period and SELL suggests a price decline of 30% over the next 12-month period . As of 01/01/09, Albert Fried & Company LLC provides research on 2 companies, of which 1 (50%) are rated BUY and 0 (0%) are rated Market Perform and are rated SELL 1 (50%) . Of the BUYS, Albert Fried & Company, LLC has received investment banking income from 0 companies (0%). Of the BUY 0 (0%) trade above and 0 (0%) trade below our price targets. Of the MARKET PERFORM, 0 (0%) trade above and 0 (0%) trade below our price targets. Of the SELL. 0 (0%) trade above and 1(100%) trade below our price targets. Any estimates or forecasts may not be met. This report contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from the projections described in the forward-looking statements. The material contained in this report is for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation, or an offer or recommendation, to buy or sell securities mentioned. Neither Albert Fried & Company LLC nor any person involved in the preparation of this publication accepts any liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this publication and none of them makes any representation or warranty in relation thereto. Recipients of this report should conduct their own investigation, confirmation and analysis of the information contained in this publication. Much of the company-specific data and information in this report was obtained directly from the company’s SEC filings, reputable news wires or the company’s manage- ment. No recipient should act on the basis of any matter contained in this publication without considering and, if necessary, taking appropri- ate legal, financial, and other professional advice upon the recipient’s own particular circumstances. Investors are advised to undertake their own investigation of the merits of investing in the Companies profiled in this report. Information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable but we do not guarantee their accuracy. Prices and opinions concerning the composition of market sectors included in this report reflect the judgments as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Reprints of Albert Fried & Company LLC reports are prohibited without permission. The research analyst (Richard R Tullo) certifies on May 29, 2009 that this report accurately reflects his/her personal views about the subject securities and issuers and that none of the research analyst's compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the analyst's specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Occasionally, Albert Fried & Company LLC may receive a fee, directly or indirectly, at the time of an underwriting for an individual company already under research coverage, for which the covering analyst will not be compensated. Albert Fried & Company LLC, or persons associated with it may own securities of the issues described herein and may make purchases or sales while this report is in circulation. Albert Fried & Company LLC, policy does not allow any analyst to own shares in any company he/she covers. No employee or household member thereof, serves as an officer or director of a covered company. Albert Fried & Company LLC does not make a market in any securities contained in this report. Additional information is available upon request. OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Communications Under FINRA Rule 2711 the term research report does not include: A) communications that are limited to the following i) discussions of broad-based indices; ii) commentaries on economic, political or market conditions iv) statistical summaries of multiple companies' financial data, including listings of current ratings; V) recommendations regarding increasing or decreasing holdings in particular industries or sectors; (B) the following communications, even if they include an analysis of an individual equity security and information reasonably sufficient upon which to base an investment decision: (i) any communication distributed to fewer than 15 persons