Al Fried Llc Custom Analytics Report Mdca (2711 Exempt) 062409
1. Rich Tullo
Trading Desk Analyst
rtullo@albertfried.com
(212) 422 – 7282
June 24, 2009
Internal Distribution Only
MDC Partners Inc.
NASDAQ: MDCA BUY
Price: $5.64 Price Target: $9.00 Stock Chart
MCAP.: 178mm Shares Out.: 28mm
Avg. Vol.
39,000 Short Int.: 17,891
10 day:
52 Week 52 Week
$8.76 $2.19
High: Low:
Year 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
EV/EBITDA: 4x P/BV: 1.8 Revenue 547,319 584,648 580,472 636,570
EPS ($1.05) $0.00 $0.14 $0.34
Notes: GAAP Earnings include $0.34 and $0.48 in non-cash executive stock compensation expenses in 2007 and 2008. Estimates include $0.31 and $0.34 in non-cash executive stock compensation.
Initiate Coverage of MDCA with a BUY Rating and $9.00 Target, We Like MDCA’s Strate-
gic Position and Prospects for Market Share Gains in 2009-2010
Key Points:
• We think MDC Partners (NASDAQ: MDCA BUY) shares are attractive; prior to a rebound in global Ad spending, we ex-
pect MDCA to benefit from increased spending on creative advertising services.
• MDCA has limited top-line exposure to auto manufacturers as its clients (Volkswagen and BMW ) have had only mod-
est sales declines (-12% and -27% respectively) as compared to U.S. domestic manufactures (–36% to –42%).
• We like MDCA’s core clientele of fast food and family restaurants such as Burger King (NYSE BKH, NC) and Domino’s
Pizza (NYSE: DPZ) as they are stable advertisers in our view.
• We expect MDCA to offset a $30 million decline in CRM revenue in 2009 with an increase in SMS or agency revenue.
• MDCA’s balance sheet has improved and we expect MDCA to retire its 8%, $45 million, CDN 2010 convertible bonds
with its existing credit lines and the cash balances.
• We derive our $9 target by applying a 6x peer group EV-to-EBITDA multiple to our 2010 $68 million EBITDA estimate.
Our target implies roughly 57% upside from the current price. Thus we initiate coverage with A BUY rating.
See important notes, disclosures and disclaimers on page 6,7 before making investment decisions.
2. Company Overview: MDC Partners, Inc. is and advertising industry holding company. MDCA, through its subsidiaries, provides marketing
.
communications services primarily in the United States, Canada, Europe, Jamaica, and Philippines. It operates through three segments:
Strategic Marketing Services, Customer Relationship Management, and Specialized Communication Services. MDC Partners also offers
advertising, retail and event marketing, and consumer promotion services. The company was formerly known as MDC Corporation, Inc.
and changed its name to MDC Partners, Inc. in January 2004. MDC Partners, Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto,
Canada.
MDCA benefits more from the growth in Internet and interactive advertising, compared with its peer group, since roughly 40% of the com-
pany’s business is in digital innovation and direct response. Since 2005, MDCA’s advertising revenue expanded roughly 42%, compared
with 30% for the peer group and 47% for Internet advertising, because MDCA’s agencies are industry thought leaders and delivered suc-
cessful interactive ad campaigns.
Specifically, MDCA’s two largest agency holdings, Crispen Porter and Bogusky (CP+B) agency and Kirshenbaum Bond and Partners (KBP)
have won agency awards and more importantly high profile clients. In 2008, CP+B began work on the Microsoft (NASD: MSFT, NC) and
Best Buy (NYSE; BBY, NC) campaigns and KBP began work on Wendy’s (NYSE: WEN,NC). We think CP+B’s strength is selling to the 18-30
year-old age demographic (also know as the millennial generation) and KBP strong suit is selling to mature tech-savvy customers.
MDCA’s largest Auto manufacturing client, Volkswagen, just surpassed Ford in global market share: We think MDCA’s SMS sales visibility
is strong versus the holding company peer group with exposure to the Big Three US Auto manufactures. MDCA benefits from Volks-
wagen’s strategic goals and its commitment to maintain ad spending. Currently, Volkswagen sells about 700,000 vehicles in the US and
plans to increase US sales to 1.3 million units by offering fuel efficient clean-diesel cars made in Europe, the US and Brazil. In contrast,
to U.S. automakers (which have cut ad spending by roughly 50%) Volkswagen plans maintain its current level of ad spending according to
comments made by Volkswagen’s marketing manager Tim Ellis. In May, Volkswagen sales were down just 12% versus lower sales at the
Big Three and Toyota which where down 33% and 41% respectively (according to Auto Data) and we credit Volkswagen performance to
investment in advertising.
MDCA will benefit, in our view, from consumer electronics in 2009 : We expect MDCA to benefit from the new Microsoft Windows
(NASDAQ: MSFT) 7.0 launch in 3Q:09: The aforementioned CP+B is also the agency of record for Microsoft’s Windows products. CP+B
was hired by Microsoft to help rebuild its brand to counter Apple’s (NASD: AAPL) aggressive negative advertising. We think MSFT contrib-
uted $15 million or about 2.5% to MSFT’s top line in 2008. We expect MSFT will increase ad spending in the run-up to it’s its windows
launch and offset weakness MDCA might incur owing to a recessionary economy. As CP+B is Best Buy’s creative Ad Agency we think the
company will benefit from increasing competition between Wal-Mart and Best Buy and the surge in new consumer electronics such as
smart phones and LED TV’s.
As ad rates remain challenged we expect MDCA’s fast food clients to maintain advertising budgets: MDCA’s revenue is weighted to fast-
food and family restaurants -owing to its strength with millennials. MDCA’s clients include; Burger King (NYSE: BKC), Wendy’s (NYSE:
WEN,NC), Dominoes Pizza (NYSE: DPZ, NC) , Arby’s (is division of NYSE:WEN, NC), International House of Pancakes (NYSE:IHOP,NC), PF
Changs (NYSE: PFC, NC), Churches Chicken and Subway (in Canada). We think, fast service restaurants benefit as budget conscious con-
sumers switched from higher priced restaurants. The restaurant business is highly competitive and advertising intensive. As ad rates
across all media have plummeted; restaurant ad budget have stayed the same or increased as advertisers can buy more media impres-
sions per dollar.
As MDCA’s margins improve ; we expect MDCA to pay down debt. Owing to its acquisition strategy from (2001 to 2006) MDCA has large
non-cash expenses therefore GAAP earnings in our view is not the best measure of MDCA’s income. We use EBITDA (defined as Earnings
before interest , taxes, depreciation minority interest) and as MDCA’s EBITDA expanded to $41 million in 2008 from $31 million in 2007
cash on its balance sheet has expanded to $46 million at the end of 1Q:09. Thus the $45 million in MDCA 8% convertible notes coming
due in 2010 are not a great risk, in our opinion as, MDCA has ample liquidity.
Risks to Thesis: MDCA through its Accent CRM division operates call centers for Sprint. Sprint had been losing market share and inves-
tors became concerned about MDCA’s CRM franchise. Ironically as Sprint has improved its service offering high touch customer com-
plaints have declined. Thus the need for CRM services has diminished. As a result we expect CRM revenues to decline about $35 million
in 2009. While we think our estimates are realistic MDCA failure to offset CRM revenue with SMS sales could result in down-side to our
estimates.
Estimates and Target: Despite a decline in CRM revenue, we expect only a modest decline in MDCA’s top-line (to $580 million in 2009
from $584 in 2008). As MDCA cuts cost we expect EBITDA to grow roughly 15% to $53 million in 2009 (from $46 million in 2008) and a
modest gain in EPS to $0.14. As the global economic outlook improves in 2010, we expect MDCA’s top-line to expand 10%, EBITDA to
expand 28% to $68 million and EPS to nearly double to $0.34.
We value MDCA by using the ratio of EV-to-EBITDA. We think the overhang related to MDCA’s CRM franchise creates an opportunity to
BUY MDCA shares at a discount to its peers. MDCA’s current $5.70 price level implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 4x which is a
significant discount to the 6x peer group multiple. To derive our $9 target, we apply a 6X multiple to our $68 million 2010 EBITDA esti-
mate. We argue MDCA deserves a least a peer group multiple as MDCA is a industry thought leader with exposure to growing clients and
with almost 60% upside to our target we think investors should BUY MDCA shares.
3. Table 1.
MDC PARTNERS INCOME STATEMENT
(All figures in $000s except where noted) 2007 A Mar. A Jun.A Sep. A Dec.A 2008 A Mar. A Jun. E Sep. E Dec. E 2009E Mar. E Jun. E Sep. E Dec. E 2010E
Revenue $547,319 $143,344 $158,275 $126,738 $156,291 $584,648 $126,738 $145,613 $133,075 $175,046 $580,472 $145,115 $152,602 $159,956 $178,897 $636,570
Operating Expenses
Cost of services sold 351,851 97,591 104,012 85,879 104,663 392,145 85,879 99,017 90,491 122,532 397,919 100,129 105,296 108,770 121,650 435,845
Office and general expenses 143,207 35,849 37,480 31,152 33,274 137,755 31,152 31,775 30,341 31,508 124,776 32,506 33,878 31,991 31,486 129,861
Depreciation and amortization 29,246 10,088 8,708 7,593 8,015 34,404 7,593 7,274 7,020 6,986 28,873 6,898 6,898 6,898 6,898 27,592
Other charges (recoveries)
Goodwill and intangible impairment
Total Operating Expenses 524,304 143,528 150,200 124,624 145,952 564,304 124,624 138,066 127,852 161,026 551,568 139,533 146,071 147,659 160,034 593,298
Operating Profit 23,015 (184) 8,075 2,114 10,339 20,344 2,114 7,547 5,223 14,020 28,904 5,582 6,531 12,297 18,863 43,273
Operating margin % 4.2% -0.1% 5.1% 1.7% 6.6% 3.5% 1.7% 5.2% 3.9% 8.0% 5.0% 3.8% 4.3% 7.7% 10.5% 6.8%
Other Income (Expenses)
Gain on sale of assets, settlement of long-term debt 3,065 (14) (14)
Other income and foreign exchange gain, (loss) (7,192) 3,603 (527) 2,629 7,552 13,257 2,629 (200) (200) (200) 2,029 (200) (200) (200) (200) (800)
Interest expense (13,672) (3,889) (3,413) (3,633) (4,064) (14,998) (3,761) (3,761) (3,761) (3,761) (15,044) (4,305) (4,305) (4,305) (4,305) (17,220)
Interest income 1,726 206 173 203 1161 1743 203 203 203 203 812 300 300 300 300 1200
Total Other Income (Expenses) (16,073) (80) (3,767) (801) 4,635 (12) (929) (3,758) (3,758) (3,758) (12,203) (4,205) (4,205) (4,205) (4,205) (16,820)
Income from continuing operations before taxes 6,942 (264) 4,308 1,313 14,974 20,332 1,185 3,789 1,465 10,262 16,701 1,377 2,326 8,092 14,658 26,453
b/f taxes, equity in affiliates and minority interests
Income taxes 5,620 (825) 3,943 615 (1,336) 2,397 615 1,515 586 4,105 6,821 (551) (930) (3237) (5863) (10581)
Income from continuing operations 1,322 561 365 698 16,310 17,935 570 2,273 879 6,157 9,879 826 1,396 4,855 8,795 15,872
b/f equity in affiliates and minority interests
Equity in earnings of non-consolidated affiliates 165 140 81 93 100 349 93 100 100 100 393 100 100 100 100 400
Minority interests in income of consolidated subsidiaries (20,565) (2,094) (2,869) (382) (2,791) (8,136) - (8,047) (8,660) (9,387) (10,951) (37,045)
Income (loss) from continuing operations (19,078) (1,393) (2,504) 409 13,635 10,148 663 2,273 879 6,157 9,972 926 1,496 4,955 8,895 16,272
Net income margin % -3.5% -1.0% -1.6% 0.3% 8.7% 1.7% 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 3.1% 5.0% 2.6%
Income (loss) from discontinued operations (7,277) (252) (9,763) (10,015) (252) (500) (500) (500) (1752) (500) (500) (500) (500) ($2,000)
Net income attributed to non-controlling interests (382) (1186) (979) (1680) (4228) (662) (738) (1199) (1724) (4324)
% Income from Continuing opes -4% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8%
Net Income (Loss) (26,355) (1,253) (2,504) 157 3,872 133 29 588 (600) 3,976 3,993 (236) 258 3,256 6,670 9,948
Earnings (Loss) Per Common Share:
Basic
Continuing operations (0.76) (0.05) (0.09) 0.02 0.51 0.38 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.25 0.39 0.04 0.06 0.20 0.36 0.66
Discontinued operations and changes in accounting (0.29) (0.08) (0.07) (0) (0.21) (0.37) (0)
Net loss ($1.05) ($0.13) ($0.16) $0.01 $0.30 $0.01 $0.00 $0.02 ($0.02) $0.16 $0.16 ($0.01) $0.01 $0.13 $0.27 $0.40
Diluted
Continuing operations (0.76) (0.05) (0.09) 0.02 0.50 0.38 0.01 0.09 0.04 0.25 0.40 (0.01) 0.01 0.13 0.27 0.40
Discontinued operations and non-controlling (0.01) (0.36) (0.37) (0.01) (0.07) (0.06) (0.11) (0.26) 0.00 (0.00) (0.02) (0.04) (0.06)
Net Income (loss) per share ($1.05) ($0.05) ($0.09) $0.01 $0.14 $0.00 $0.00 $0.02 ($0.02) $0.14 $0.14 ($0.01) $0.01 $0.11 $0.23 $0.34
Weighted Average Number of Common Shares Outstanding:
Basic 25,001 26,800 26,800 27,116 26,800 26,800 26,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800 24,800
Diluted 25,001 26,800 26,800 27,116 27,116 26,958 27,116 27,116 29,116 29,116 28,116 29,116 29,116 29,116 29,116 29,116
MDC share of Ebitda (TTM) 31,696 33,908 41,770 43,694 46,612 46,612 48,127 47,848 49,787 53,549 53,549 56,542 56,098 63,330 68,541 68,541
EV 352,556 362,073 337,477 339,979 317,677 273,411 251,852 277,710 312,899 296,345 254,463 192,449 264,546 408,740 676,906 297,006
EV/EBITDA 11.1 10.7 8.1 7.8 5.9 5.9 5.2 5.8 6.3 4.8 4.8 3.4 4.7 6.5 4.3 4.3
(Earnings before intrest,taxes, depreciation and amortization less minority intrest)
Other per Share
Ebitda Per Share (diluted) $2.09 $0.37 $0.63 $0.36 $0.68 $2.03 $0.36 $0.55 $0.42 $0.72 $2.05 $0.28 $0.32 $0.51 $0.74 $1.86
MDC Share of Ebitda (basic) $1.27 $0.29 $0.52 $0.34 $0.58 $1.74 $0.35 $0.55 $0.45 $0.78 $2.16 $0.50 $0.53 $0.75 $0.99 $2.76
MDCA Share of Ebitda (per share diluted) $1.27 $0.29 $0.52 $0.34 $0.57 $1.73 $0.34 $0.50 $0.39 $0.66 $1.90 $0.42 $0.45 $0.64 $0.84 $2.35
Percentage of Sales
Gross Margin % 35.7% 33.3% 34.3% 32.2% 36.0% 32.9% 32.2% 32.0% 32.0% 30.0% 31.4% 31.0% 31.0% 32.0% 32.0% 31.5%
Ebit margin % NM NM -1.9% 2.5% 5.9% 2.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 0.9% 1.5% 5.1% 8.2% 4.2%
Ebitda Margin % 9.5% 6.9% 10.6% 7.7% 11.7% 9.4% 7.7% 10.2% 9.2% 12.0% 10.0% 5.7% 6.0% 9.4% 12.0% 8.5%
Net Income Margin % NM NM NM 0.3% 8.7% NM 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.0% 3.1% 5.0% 2.6%
YOY Performance Measures
Gross Margin 11% 16% -4% -17% -13% -2% -14% -14% 4% 6% -5% 10% 2% 20% 9% 10%
Operating profit 73% NM 56% NM NM NM NM -7% 147% 36% 42% 164% -13% 135% 35% 50%
Ebitda NM 326% 46% -23% NM 5% -2% -12% 26% 14% 6% -15% -38% 22% 3% -6%
Net Income 29% -84% -3% -106% -291% -153% -148% -191% 115% -55% NM 40% -34% 464% 44% 63%
Source:Albert Fried andCompany LLC and Company Reports