Analysis of the French Elections Panelists: Régis Arnaud Guillaume Gerondeau Benjamin Lasry (joined by live video) ICAS public lecture series videos are posted on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLAA67B040B82B8AEF

1. The 2017 French
presidential election
Benjamin Lasry
Tokyo and London, May 17, 2017
The panelist is speaking in his personal capacity, not on behalf of any firm.

2. An unprecedented election by many accounts
• Election should have been a slam-dunk for
conservatives… until “Penelopegate”
• First time that both candidates of major
parties are eliminated in first round:
conservative François Fillon (Les
Républicains) and Socialist Benoît Hamon
(Parti Socialiste)
• Winner is a 39 year-old who had never
held elected office and whose party, En
Marche!, celebrated its first birthday in
April
• New four-way fragmentation of French
political landscape
Charente Libre, Ouest France

3. What does Macron’s election mean for the world?
The EU and euro are safe… for now

4. Bucking the tide of Brexit andTrump
• Emmanuel Macron’s victory: particularly
impressive with older and young
demographics
• Le Pen did better with men than with
women (likeTrump). Macron performed
better with women (like Clinton).
• Unlike Brexit andTrump last year, older
voters voted decidedly against the
populist option (Le Pen’s plan to leave
the euro = losing your savings…)
• The toxicity of the « Le Pen brand » was
still apparent
IPSOS/Game Changers/Sopra Steria

5. “Rust belt” east vs. west divide
First round (11 candidates) Second round (Macron vs. Le Pen)
Les Echos, Le Monde

6. The far-right vote and unemployment
Bloomberg

7. Macron’s “urban firewall” and strong vote transfers…
Le Monde, FinancialTimes

8. … and Le Pen’s support in rural France
Macron (orange) and Le Pen (black) Le Monde

9. The “republican front”: weaker than in 2002
• In 2002 run-off, Jacques Chirac defeated
Jean-Marie Le Pen with 82.2% of the
votes. What has happened since?
• Marine Le Pen started “de-demonizing”
the party in 2011
• Far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon refused to
say whether he would cast a blank ballot
or vote for Macron in run-off
• Les Républicains were also split on how
to react to « Hollande Junior » vs. Le Pen
• Globalization vs. Populism is a new
fracture
AFP

10. Accuracy of polls was striking
• Going back to the 1990s, although first
round polls have had some major
mistakes (e.g.April 21, 2002), their
prediction of the actual victor has always
been correct
• Real risk event in 2017 was the first round:
four-way race, two parties which were
about a year old (En Marche! and La
France Insoumise), 25% undecided until
the final days…
• The second round polls were so wide
(Macron typically 20 points ahead) that
there was never a significant risk that Le
Pen would catch up
Le Monde

11. Thank you for listening!