Day 4 of a series of thoughts on COVID-19

1. UK response to
COVID-19
A point of view (23 April 2020)

2. Contents
UK plans01
UK response02
Conclusions03
Numbers04
Political and moral dilemmas05

3. Numbers
Comparing UK with its most comparable neighbours
Observations & Personal Thoughts

4. Different countries
- different demographics
It seems the virus spreads faster and
wider in countries/areas which have
• More highly urbanized populations
(Belgium and UK for example)
• Larger cities with larger mass transport
systems
• London is very much larger than
any other city in comparable EU
countries
• New York (mass transport) has
fared far worse than Los Angeles
(private transport).
• Much travel between cities
• A higher proportion of older people
(Germany the exception to most rules)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_countries_by_percentage_of_urban_population
Italy
(North)
Spain France
UK
(London)
Germany
Proportion in urban
areas
70%
(94%)
80% 80%
83%
(100%)
77%
Millions in cities
over 1 million
3 4 2 10 8
Proportion over 65 22% 19% 19% 18% 21%

5. Different countries
- different data capture approaches
Comparing cases is hopeless; comparing deaths is better, but still unreliable
https://towardsdatascience.com/dont-believe-any-numbers-on-coronavirus-
9c5d6a971bef
Some publish only deaths in hospital, others include care home deaths.
Ascribing a cause of death to the virus often difficult.
Some countries record only deaths certainly ascribable to coronavirus,
Some record all deaths of people diagnosed with coronavirus
Some perform post-mortem tests on people not diagnosed with it.

6. Italy and UK
compared
Charts aligned at 50th
death date.
Note they enforced locked down at same point
on the curve (UK urged voluntary measures a
week earlier)
Italy Spain France UK Germany
1st death
Feb
22
Mar 3 Feb 14
Mar
5
Mar 9
50th death Mar 2 Mar 11 Mar 12
Mar
16
Mar 20
Lockdown Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 17
Mar
23
Mar 22

7. France
include past care home deaths
Germany
much lower death per day rate
How do deaths per day compare?
Charts aligned at 50th death date.
UKSpain
similar - but smaller population
Italy Spain France UK Germany
1st death Feb 22 Mar 3 Feb 14 Mar 5 Mar 9
50th death Mar 2 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar 16 Mar 20
Lockdown Mar 9 Mar 10 Mar 17 Mar 23 Mar 22

8. Projections?
Despite data capture discrepancies, my charts suggest Italy, Spain and France are
following remarkably similar trajectories.
With UK following a week or two behind.
The charts show all three comparators are slow to get their daily death rate below 500.
Can they do much contain future outbreaks until the rate drops much further?

9. USA?
New York has about half USA virus deaths.
(New York and London are far larger than other cities in Europe).
“America’s national-level response [is] hampered by its federalist system.
The federal government [has] narrow authorities at the U.S. border.
Early, Trump banned the entry of foreign nationals and closed borders with both Mexico and Canada.
But the primary authority for ordering major public-health interventions lies with U.S. states.
Congress has exclusive power to regulate interstate commerce and travel, but the president cannot.
The Department of Health and Human Services [has some] authority to issue quarantines, but not to ban interstate travel.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/why-theres-no-national-lockdown/609127/

10. THANK YOU
Keep watching and reading for the next chapter..