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1
Contribution to GDP (demand)
2
-21
0
21
42
2010 2011
Percentage points
Total consumption total investments net exports GDP
Sector share of GDP in 2011
3
13.0%
20.2%
7.1%
9.7%7.2%
6.6%
36.3% Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Mining and quarrying
Manufacturing
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation amd storage
Real estate activities
Others
Contribution to growth (supply)
4
10.2
8.9
-1.3
6.4
17.3
-6
0
6
12
18
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Percentage points
Agriculture Industry Services GDP
GDP per capita (current USD)
5
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Current account and trade indicators
6
-30
-15
0
15
30
-10
-5
0
5
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
% of GDP$ billion
Export Imports Current account balance (right)
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as
share of GDP
7
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mining Economics
• The mining sector in Mongolia creates
– 90% of exports
– 30% of government revenue
– 20% of GDP
– 1.6 % of employment
8
Inequality and Economic Growth
• Inequality can weaken the basis of growth
itself by:
– holding back accumulation of human capital;
– undermining social cohesion;
– weakening the quality of governance and
institutions; and
– increasing pressure for inefficient populist policies
9
Two important medium-term
challenges for Mongolia
• Strengthen economic and political institutions
to ensure transparent, accountable and
equitable management of natural resource
revenue
• Encourage diversification of the economy and
create jobs by supporting investment in non-
resource sectors
10
Confronting rising inequality
in Asia
11
Asia’s high growth has led to large
reductions in poverty…
7.0
3.7 3.4 2.4
28.2
9.7
5.7
1.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and
Caribbean
Middle East and
North Africa
GDP growth and poverty reduction
GDP growth (1990-2010), %
Reduction in poverty rate (1990s-2000s), percentage point
12
…but was accompanied by rising
inequality in many countries
• Inequality increased in countries accounting
for more than 80% of Asia’s population
• Gini coefficients worsened from:
– 32 to 43 in the PRC
– 33 to 37 in India
– 29 to 39 in Indonesia
• Taking developing Asia as a single unit, its Gini
coefficient went from 39 to 46
13
ADB Mongolia Resident Mission
• Jan Hansen
jhansen@adb.org
• Amar Lkhagvasuren
alkhagvasuren@adb.org
14

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23.04.2012, Development outlook for Mongolia and Asia Confronting rising inequality, Robert Schoellhammer and Jan Hansen

  • 1. 1
  • 2. Contribution to GDP (demand) 2 -21 0 21 42 2010 2011 Percentage points Total consumption total investments net exports GDP
  • 3. Sector share of GDP in 2011 3 13.0% 20.2% 7.1% 9.7%7.2% 6.6% 36.3% Agriculture, forestry and fishing Mining and quarrying Manufacturing Wholesale and retail trade Transportation amd storage Real estate activities Others
  • 4. Contribution to growth (supply) 4 10.2 8.9 -1.3 6.4 17.3 -6 0 6 12 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Percentage points Agriculture Industry Services GDP
  • 5. GDP per capita (current USD) 5 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 6. Current account and trade indicators 6 -30 -15 0 15 30 -10 -5 0 5 10 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % of GDP$ billion Export Imports Current account balance (right)
  • 7. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as share of GDP 7 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  • 8. Mining Economics • The mining sector in Mongolia creates – 90% of exports – 30% of government revenue – 20% of GDP – 1.6 % of employment 8
  • 9. Inequality and Economic Growth • Inequality can weaken the basis of growth itself by: – holding back accumulation of human capital; – undermining social cohesion; – weakening the quality of governance and institutions; and – increasing pressure for inefficient populist policies 9
  • 10. Two important medium-term challenges for Mongolia • Strengthen economic and political institutions to ensure transparent, accountable and equitable management of natural resource revenue • Encourage diversification of the economy and create jobs by supporting investment in non- resource sectors 10
  • 12. Asia’s high growth has led to large reductions in poverty… 7.0 3.7 3.4 2.4 28.2 9.7 5.7 1.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Developing Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa GDP growth and poverty reduction GDP growth (1990-2010), % Reduction in poverty rate (1990s-2000s), percentage point 12
  • 13. …but was accompanied by rising inequality in many countries • Inequality increased in countries accounting for more than 80% of Asia’s population • Gini coefficients worsened from: – 32 to 43 in the PRC – 33 to 37 in India – 29 to 39 in Indonesia • Taking developing Asia as a single unit, its Gini coefficient went from 39 to 46 13
  • 14. ADB Mongolia Resident Mission • Jan Hansen jhansen@adb.org • Amar Lkhagvasuren alkhagvasuren@adb.org 14