Play with Cats and Don't Get Scratched: Network Analysis to Model Cat Risks

2. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 2

3. MAIN POINTS
• David Simmons: «Historically catastrophe insurance has focussed on property
loss, but the scope is far wider, e.g. disaster response»
• Modelling catastrophe risks is part of a wider problem – the correct accounting of
economic risks that a country, a region or a city faces
• For many countries in the region in question we do not still have a reliable risk
model
• Existing modelling do not take into account second- (and higher) order effects
when assessing risks, and probable maximum loss
• Second-order effects depend on critical infrastructure (CI) and its importance for
impact diffusion pathway
• Network analysis helps to model that
• Even if we have a perfect model – what if central points in CI lie beyond country
borders?
MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 3

4. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 4
Second order effects: Oh et al (2010)

5. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 5
Higher order effects: Kadri et al (2014)

6. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 6
Critical infrastructure and EVD spread: Fang et al (2016)

7. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 7
Centrality in network analysis: Tapiocozzo (2015)

8. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 8
Central points in CI may be located beyond country borders

9. MAYFAIR RESEARCH ASSOCIATES 9
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