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the
EVOLUTION
of the Planned Community




10
10 Slides




 7
   	
                   7 Minutes

                             	
  
DISTILLED
6
2
6 Questions

          	
  
                 2 Futures
                                    27 October 2011
                                    Jim Heid, Founder
                                    Urban Green ®
Do we still need
#1            planned communities?




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Do we still need
#1   planned communities?
     YES.
     “The U.S. is now on track to
     reach 400 Million residents
     by mid century – we actually
     add more people than
     China from now to 2050.”
     Robert E Lang
     Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West
     University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The Lincy Institute
Planned Community as a Better Alternative
                                Planned                     Ad Hoc
                              Communities                 Subdivisions




     Multiple Housing    Yes – 5 minimum; price, life   One builder, changed
              Options   stage and own/ rent options          elevations

                          Integrated hierarchy and
         Open Space                                           A park
                                   lifestyles

                         Third places & daily goods
 Community Hardware                                           Limited
                                  services

         Stewardship        Community Life and
                                                               None
                              environmental

       Sustainability   Integrated , systems approach    Checklist approach
Why does right, feel so ….wrong?
#2                                                 	
  




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
#2           Why does right, feel so … wrong?

             IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING
                             A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010
US Total1                                                                          8,580,000                       %

Top Ten Planned Communities2                                                       130,386                        1.5%

Top Twenty Planned Communities3                                                    187,687                        2.2%

All Planned Communities (estimated)4                                               800,636                        9.3%

1    Source: US Census Bureau
2    Souce: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2010
3    Source: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2007, 2008-2010 extrapolated by UrbanGreen
4    Source: UrbanGreen, extrapolated from RCLCo data by 2001-2010
#3            Infill or greenfield?




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
New housing location
projection ca 2004

70-65%
Greenfield


15-20%
Suburban
densification




10-15%
Urban infill


© UrbanGreen 2004
#3             Infill or greenfield?

                   BOTH.
                   Population
                   growth1 by
                   metropolitan
                   location
                   2000-2010

                            	
  

    =1,000,000          Urban Core            Inner Ring          Mature             Emerging          Exurb
     People             (-.3 M)               Suburb              Suburb             Suburb
                                              (+5.9 M)            (+3.5 M)           (+5.1 M)          (+1.5 M)

1   Source: Robert E Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
#4            Place or strategy?




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
#4    Place or strategy?

      DEPENDS.
 •    Your context and what you do with it
 •    How you engage potential partners
 •    Sustainability gateways
 •    How you ‘craft’ community
#5            Can community be planned?




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
#5   Can community be planned?

     IF WE ADAPT.
         ….then
#5   Can community be planned?

     IF WE ADAPT.
         ….then             going forward…..
Riverside,
Reston
and
Rincon Hill
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
                    New            Retrofit
                 Communities     Communities        Infill Communities
                  RIVERSIDE    RESTON TOWN CENTER      RINCON HILL
         YEAR       1869              1988                2005+

       CONTEXT    Greenfield          Suburb            Urban Core
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
                       New            Retrofit
                    Communities     Communities        Infill Communities
                     RIVERSIDE    RESTON TOWN CENTER      RINCON HILL
            YEAR       1869              1988                2005+


        CONTEXT       Greenfield         Suburb             Urban Core


     SIZE (ACRES)       1600             460                   51

      POPULATION       9,000            7,500                10,000
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
                           New               Retrofit
                        Communities        Communities        Infill Communities
                         RIVERSIDE       RESTON TOWN CENTER      RINCON HILL
                YEAR        1869                1988                2005+


            CONTEXT       Greenfield            Suburb             Urban Core


         SIZE (ACRES)        1600               460                   51


          POPULATION        9,000               7,500               10,000

                            Create              Add               Leverage
  CRAFTING COMMUNITY
                        Village Center      Urban Center         Urban Core
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
                           New               Retrofit
                        Communities        Communities        Infill Communities
                         RIVERSIDE       RESTON TOWN CENTER      RINCON HILL
                YEAR        1869                1988                2005+


            CONTEXT       Greenfield            Suburb             Urban Core


         SIZE (ACRES)       1600                460                   51


          POPULATION        9,000               7,500               10,000

                            Create              Add                Leverage
  CRAFTING COMMUNITY
                        Village Center      Urban Center          Urban Core

          STRUCTURE       PRIVATE          PRIVATE/Public       Public/Private
Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio
                           New               Retrofit
                        Communities        Communities        Infill Communities
                         RIVERSIDE       RESTON TOWN CENTER      RINCON HILL
                YEAR        1869                1988                 2005+


            CONTEXT       Greenfield            Suburb             Urban Core


         SIZE (ACRES)       1600                 460                  51


          POPULATION        9,000               7,500               10,000

                            Create              Add                Leverage
  CRAFTING COMMUNITY
                        Village Center      Urban Center          Urban Core

          STRUCTURE        Private          Private/Public       Public/Private

         SUSTAINABLE
            GATEWAY      Stormwater         Jobs Housing        Transportation
#6            What Does it All Mean?




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield
Planned Communities
represent a superior
social & environmental
alternative to sprawl


	
  

 Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Greenfield
Planned Communities
represent a superior
social & environmental
alternative to sprawl
  they should grow as a
  percentage of greenfield
	
  development, as total
  greenfield development
  diminishes
	
  
Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill
Planned Communities
represent the best
method to regenerate
urban areas quickly,
and at scale


	
  
 Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
Because Retrofit + Infill
Planned Communities
represent the best
method to regenerate
urban areas quickly,
and at scale
 they provide a renewed
 purpose for our
 industry to make a
	
  difference.
	
  


Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
#6            What Does it All Mean?

              NEW OPPORTUNITY.
              New
              communities
              Outlook - Limited to Good

              Retrofit
              communities
              Outlook - Very Good


              Infill
              communities
              Outlook - Good




Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011

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Future of Planned Communities - J Heid

  • 1. the EVOLUTION of the Planned Community 10 10 Slides 7   7 Minutes   DISTILLED 6 2 6 Questions   2 Futures 27 October 2011 Jim Heid, Founder Urban Green ®
  • 2. Do we still need #1 planned communities? Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 3. Do we still need #1 planned communities? YES. “The U.S. is now on track to reach 400 Million residents by mid century – we actually add more people than China from now to 2050.” Robert E Lang Professor and Director, Brookings Mountain West University of Nevada, Las Vegas, The Lincy Institute
  • 4. Planned Community as a Better Alternative Planned Ad Hoc Communities Subdivisions Multiple Housing Yes – 5 minimum; price, life One builder, changed Options stage and own/ rent options elevations Integrated hierarchy and Open Space A park lifestyles Third places & daily goods Community Hardware Limited services Stewardship Community Life and None environmental Sustainability Integrated , systems approach Checklist approach
  • 5. Why does right, feel so ….wrong? #2   Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 6. #2 Why does right, feel so … wrong? IT’S NOT JUST A FEELING A Decade of New Home Sales 2001-2010 US Total1 8,580,000 % Top Ten Planned Communities2 130,386 1.5% Top Twenty Planned Communities3 187,687 2.2% All Planned Communities (estimated)4 800,636 9.3% 1  Source: US Census Bureau 2  Souce: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2010 3  Source: RCLCo Top Selling Master Planned Communities Data, 2001-2007, 2008-2010 extrapolated by UrbanGreen 4  Source: UrbanGreen, extrapolated from RCLCo data by 2001-2010
  • 7. #3 Infill or greenfield? Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 8. New housing location projection ca 2004 70-65% Greenfield 15-20% Suburban densification 10-15% Urban infill © UrbanGreen 2004
  • 9. #3 Infill or greenfield? BOTH. Population growth1 by metropolitan location 2000-2010   =1,000,000 Urban Core Inner Ring Mature Emerging Exurb People (-.3 M) Suburb Suburb Suburb (+5.9 M) (+3.5 M) (+5.1 M) (+1.5 M) 1 Source: Robert E Lang. Based on 416 counties in the 50 largest metro areas. These contain 53.7% of total U.S. population.
  • 10. #4 Place or strategy? Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 11. #4 Place or strategy? DEPENDS. •  Your context and what you do with it •  How you engage potential partners •  Sustainability gateways •  How you ‘craft’ community
  • 12. #5 Can community be planned? Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 13. #5 Can community be planned? IF WE ADAPT. ….then
  • 14. #5 Can community be planned? IF WE ADAPT. ….then going forward…..
  • 16. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio New Retrofit Communities Communities Infill Communities RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL YEAR 1869 1988 2005+ CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core
  • 17. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio New Retrofit Communities Communities Infill Communities RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL YEAR 1869 1988 2005+ CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51 POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000
  • 18. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio New Retrofit Communities Communities Infill Communities RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL YEAR 1869 1988 2005+ CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51 POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000 Create Add Leverage CRAFTING COMMUNITY Village Center Urban Center Urban Core
  • 19. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio New Retrofit Communities Communities Infill Communities RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL YEAR 1869 1988 2005+ CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51 POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000 Create Add Leverage CRAFTING COMMUNITY Village Center Urban Center Urban Core STRUCTURE PRIVATE PRIVATE/Public Public/Private
  • 20. Redefining Planned Community…From Place to Portfolio New Retrofit Communities Communities Infill Communities RIVERSIDE RESTON TOWN CENTER RINCON HILL YEAR 1869 1988 2005+ CONTEXT Greenfield Suburb Urban Core SIZE (ACRES) 1600 460 51 POPULATION 9,000 7,500 10,000 Create Add Leverage CRAFTING COMMUNITY Village Center Urban Center Urban Core STRUCTURE Private Private/Public Public/Private SUSTAINABLE GATEWAY Stormwater Jobs Housing Transportation
  • 21. #6 What Does it All Mean? Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 22. Because Greenfield Planned Communities represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl   Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 23. Because Greenfield Planned Communities represent a superior social & environmental alternative to sprawl they should grow as a percentage of greenfield  development, as total greenfield development diminishes   Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 24. Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale   Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 25. Because Retrofit + Infill Planned Communities represent the best method to regenerate urban areas quickly, and at scale they provide a renewed purpose for our industry to make a  difference.   Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011
  • 26. #6 What Does it All Mean? NEW OPPORTUNITY. New communities Outlook - Limited to Good Retrofit communities Outlook - Very Good Infill communities Outlook - Good Urban Land Institute Fall Meeting | October 2011