An analysis of the social impact of the stipend program for secondary school girls of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (in Pakistan) Sustainable Development Policy Institute

1. An analysis of the social impact of the
stipend program for secondary school girls
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Vaqar Ahmed & Muhammad Zeshan
Educational Research for Policy and
Practice
ISSN 1570-2081
Educ Res Policy Prac
DOI 10.1007/s10671-013-9154-4
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3. Author's personal copy
Educ Res Policy Prac
DOI 10.1007/s10671-013-9154-4
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
An analysis of the social impact of the stipend program
for secondary school girls of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Vaqar Ahmed · Muhammad Zeshan
Received: 18 April 2013 / Accepted: 6 August 2013
© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013
Abstract The present study carries out an impact analysis of a conditional cash transfer
(CCT) program for secondary-school girls in seven districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
in Pakistan, including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir.
In 2012 we collected household-level primary data and used a probit model for quantitative
analysis. Further, we conducted various focus group discussions and key informant interviews
in the target areas. Results show that the chances of female schooling decrease with a rise
in family size. The chances of female education increase by 1.8 and by 3.3 % if household
heads and their spouses have one additional year of schooling, respectively. Better educational
services and rises in family income increase the chances of female ecucation by 11 and 0.3 %,
respectively. Finally, socioeconomic awareness, improved economic conditions, and CCTs
increase the chances of female education by 5.2, 4.7, and 0.03 %, respectively. Overall, the
stipend program (CCTs) shows a pareto improvement. Our results indicate that 35 % of
girls will drop out in the absence of a stipend program. The present study recommends that
to increase program effectiveness, local-level monitoring and program evaluation may be
improved, delays in stipend payments to female students should be reduced, a grievance
redressal mechanism for parents and guardians should be introduced, and clear synergies
should be developed with other transfer programs.
Keywords
Education · Poverty · Conditional cash transfers · Gender
JEL Classification
P36 · J16 · J18
1 Introduction
The propoor impacts of education have been widely discussed in the literature (Johnson 2013;
Ladd 2012). The channels and time period in which education impacts poverty have also been
V. Ahmed · M. Zeshan (B
)
Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, Pakistan
e-mail: zeshanqau.isb@gmail.com; zeshan@sdpi.org; muh.zeshan@gmail.com
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V. Ahmed, M. Zeshan
discussed. Thorpe et al. (2013) claims that female education has a greater impact on their
well-being but in a longer time frame. The short-run rigidities in the labor market (particularly
in developing countries) do not favor females, making it difficult to overcome poverty in the
short run. This claim is supported by Roche (2013), who finds that educated women reap considerably lower economic rewards for their services. This heterogeneity in returns to education
creates difficulties for women to rise out of poverty in the short run. However, United Nations
Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) believes that education can lead
to a reduction in poverty and promote growth in developing countries by gradually reducing anomalies in the labor markets (UNESCO 2012a). Education provides opportunities to
deprived marginalized classes and makes them active players in the economic growth process.
At the Rio 20 conference held in Brazil in 2012, the United Nations declared that the
education gap was the key difference between the developed and developing worlds.1 In
response to the findings of this conference, many developing countries are now set to redesign
their national and subnational education policies to address the various forms of poverty and
inequality that represent the main hurdles to sustained growth. The key idea here is to use
education as an active tool for job-oriented growth and welfare improvements.
The Fourth World Conference on Women, held in Beijing in 1995, recognized that female
literacy is a key determinant of empowerment for women.2 It enables them to participate in
household decision-making processes and makes them active members of household affairs.
In this era of rapid development, depriving females of equal opportunities will result in an
unsustainable development milieu (see also World Bank 2012).
Several past governments in Pakistan prioritized education; however, the sector faces enormous difficulties in implementing policy and practice corrections. Following passage of the
18th constitutional amendment, the education policy is now a provincial subject. Provincial
governments are now working rigorously toward province-specific education policies. The
setup of society and the prevalant social capital are also important ingredients in the success
of any policy. As Pakistani culture is dominated by a patriarchal social structure, a vast body
of literature recommends advocacy and outreach programs aimed at promoting literacy.
The conservative culture that maintains a status quo in gender roles is also an obstacle in
the way of achieving the Millenium Development Goals (MDGs), especially in remote areas
of Pakistan where females have little participation in decision making regarding their or their
children’s education. Women are supposed to get permission from the household head, who is
normally male, before seeking out educational, travel, employment, or business opportunities.
Most families traditionally tend to make relatively less investment in the education of girls
compared to boys. Figure 1 exhibits the trend over time in female education in Pakistan.
Progress is far from satisfactory, particularly in the case of secondary education.
It is also important to see the trend in the availability of female teachers in Pakistan
(Fig. 2). Due to the conservative norms in parts of Pakistan, parents will only send their
female children to school where there are female teachers. Schools without female teachers
have seen a decline in female enrollments. Growth in the availability of female teachers,
particularly at the primary-school level, has been less than desired.
The government’s budgetary allocations and their disbursements over time indicates the
low priority attached to education in general. In fact, this raises doubts about the government’s
1 http://www.uncsd2012.org/about.html.
2 United Nations Entity for Gender Equality and the Empowerment of Women (2012), http://www.un.org/
womenwatch/daw/beijing/fwcwn.html.
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Fig. 1 Female gross enrollments (%). Source World Development Indicators
Fig. 2 Availability of female teachers (%). Source World Development Indicators
claims regarding the seriousness of its commitment toward achieving MDGs. More recently,
just 2 % of GDP was allocated for education in the fiscal year 2010–2011. This inadequate
investment resulted in a literacy rate of only 67 % for males and 42 % for females, whereas the
rate is 65 % for males and 28 % for females in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (the province on which
we will focus in this paper).3 Some studies indicate that even these low levels of allocations
are not fully disbursed by year end (Government of Pakistan 2012).
The literacy rate is low compared to global trends, which is 61 % for young females
between the ages of 15 and 25 and 79 % for males in the same age group. UNESCO (2012b)
explains how a committed implementation by government of its own policies could raise
literacy rates up to 72 and 82 % for males and females, respectively, by the year 2015.
However, the challenge is that about half of the female population has never visited a school
and 35 % of them live in rural areas. To overcome this situation, in 2000, governments at
various levels in the country introduced targeted educational policies. The stipend program
for female secondary-school students was also introduced for the same purpose in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province.
1.1 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s context
The provincial government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa initiated a stipend program for female
secondary-school students in 2007 that aimed to increase secondary-school enrollments of
3 Source: Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement 2010–2011.
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Table 1 Literacy rate for 2010–2011 (%)– population 10 years and older
Region
Urban
Rural
Total
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
Male
Female
Total
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
77
50
63
67
29
48
68
33
50
Upper Dir
67
35
52
71
25
50
71
25
50
Shangla
0
0
0
58
16
37
58
16
37
Bonair
0
0
0
53
14
32
53
14
32
Hangu
77
38
56
69
15
41
71
20
44
Tank
81
44
64
54
10
33
57
14
36
Battagram
0
0
0
70
28
49
70
28
49
Kohistan
0
0
0
42
6
26
42
6
26
Source Pakistan social and living standards measurement (PSLM) Survey 2010–2011
Battagram
Bonair
Hangu
Kohistan
14308
Shangla
Tank
80
14308
80
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Upper Dir
14308
80
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Boys’ Enrollments
Girls’ Enrollments
Fig. 3 Trends in middle-level schooling 2002–2010. Source Bureau of Statistics Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
females. The target area of this stipend program comprised seven of the poorest districts,
including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir. A disaggregated analysis of these districts is provided in Table 1. It is evident that most of these districts
have literacy rates below the provincial average, except for Upper Dir and Battagram. Other
than the low literacy rate, the gender gap is obvious, especially in rural areas.
The enrollment trend in middle-level4 schooling for boys and girls indicates that the gender
gap is smaller in those districts where the overall student population is small, for example, the
Battagram, Hangu, Kohistan, and Tank districts. On the other hand, the differences are larger
in districts where total enrollments are high, such as in the Banair, Upper Dir, and Shangla
districts. This explains the fact that gender discrimination is relatively more pronounced in
larger districts (populationwise) compared to smaller districts (see Fig. 3 for details).
4 Class 6–8 is middle-level schooling.
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Table 2 Genderwise educational statistics of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province
School level
No. of
schools
Male
Enrollment
rate
Female Male
Primary (Class 1–5) 14,600 7,583
Participation
rate
Female
Male
(%)
Budgetary
allocation (%)
Female
(%)
1,610,024
803,204 98
66
Middle (Class 6–8)
1,436
920
142,407
74,714 51
25
51
15
High (Class 9–10)
1,069
310
358,383
128,550 40
17
34
Source PC-1 Document, Planning & Development Department, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 2011
More specifically, the gender disparity is low in the Tank, Hangu, and Kohistan districts.
This is interesting because these three districts are close to the Afghanistan border and have
suffered due to the ongoing war on terror. These primary findings show that even if parents
are interested in educating their female children, there are lacunae in the female schooling
system that need to be identified. The present study aims to precisely identify these factors.
This analysis is conducted with the help of quantitative and qualitative techniques discussed
in the following sections.
It is important here to discuss some programmatic details about this stipend program.
Primarily it aims to reduce the gender gap in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which is currently 26 % in secondary-level schooling. To this end, it allocated 30 billion Pakistan rupees
(PKR) under the Annual Development Program (ADP) in 2007. This program is part of
the Mid-Term Development Framework that aims to reduce gender imbalances to allow the
development process to work on a more equitable basis. In 2008, the province had a 57 %
literacy rate for males and 20 % for females. The fundamental reason for this low female
literacy rate is low income and a conservative social context. In this province, girls are also
expected to work with their parents to obtain the basic necessities of life. The stipend program intends to create an incentive for parents to send their children to secondary school
because many rural families follow the decades-old tradition of not sending their girls to
school beyond the primary level. Table 2 specifies some basic facts of the educational system
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
From Table 2 it is obvious that a substantial proportion of girls are not enrolled in secondary
schools, which in turn increases the gender gap. The budgetary allocation seems unfair for
females despite the government’s claim that it is committed to reducing the gender gap. The
incentive of the stipend at the secondary level aims at incentivizing poor families to educate
their girls and create a mindset change in the region. In the target districts, girls are the main
victims of educational poverty, so this stipend program targets only poor girls. The expected
outcome is a reduction in the number of dropouts and improvements in girls’ enrollments
at the secondary level, especially in remote areas. In this program, stipend money of PKR
200/month was given to each girl starting in 2006 (between Classes 6 and 10). After 1 year, in
2007, around 0.28 million female students were registered under this program. This project
also fulfills the objectives of the National Education policy, Education Sector Reforms, and
the Poverty Reduction Strategy of the Government.
The conditions imposed on the stipend money brings opportunity costs for households.
Supporters of such conditions are of the view that a conditional cash transfer (CCT) allows
efficient resource utilization. Hence, the gains from these conditions might outweigh the
organizational costs and society might achieve a society would have a better human capital
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(Bassett 2008). In a rural setting, in making decisions about their children’s schooling, parents
are also interested in the social benefits associated with investment in education. In this case,
the imposition of conditions might increase enrollments of females when parents see a stream
of higher future income. To obtain the desired results, the disbursement of funds is based on
some condition, for example, a female student must attain 80 % school attendance to receive
the next installment of funds.
The present study also aims to conduct an impact analysis of the conditional cash transfers
in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to date. At the same time, we aim to identify the prospective changes
required in this program to enhance its progress. We will examine the various transmission
channels through which this CCT in the education sector can impact various forms of poverty.
To this end, our approach analyzes the educational and noneducational factors that add to or
detract from the intended impact of the transfer program.
The rest of the study is organized as follows. In the next section we discuss the contemporaneous literature on this topic, which includes global and national studies. Section 2 elaborates
on the research methodology adopted in this study. Section 3 explains the empirical results,
and Sect. 4 concludes the study and provides policy recommendations.
1.2 Literature review
This section briefly looks at the relationship between female education, poverty, and welfare.
Thorpe et al. (2013) has evaluated the impact of female education on the well-being of African
American females using a logistic model. It finds that female education has a greater impact
on their well-being but in the longer run. The rigidities in the labor market provide smaller
incentives for females in the shorter run. This also implies that females find it difficult to
overcome poverty in the short run but can avoid poverty in the long run. Similar results
are provided by Roche (2013), who finds self-employed women receive relatively lower
economic rewards for their services compared with self-employmed men. This difference in
returns to education makes it difficult for women to escape poverty in the short run.
Further, Johnson (2013) finds that graduate-level enrollment has a countercyclical impact
on female employment but an acyclical impact on male employment. This result implies
that during a recessionary phase, the number of women losing their jobs is higher than the
number of males. Hence the labor markets offer a substitution effect in favor of males during
recessions. In the following part of this section, we review the existing literature on the role
of conditional cash transfer programs and their impact on education and social well-being.
We split these studies into global and national studies for ease of creating linkages with this
paper. Moreover, in the case of national-level studies, we will also look at the case of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa province and the state of female education.
1.3 Global literature
Conditional cash transfers are frequently employed around the world to alleviate education
poverty. Along with facilitating education, they also work to change the mindsets of local
populations and mold their thinking in favor of positive externalities arising from eduction
(see Faith and Vinay 2010). Certain conditions are generally attached to the availability of
CCT funds, increasing the efficiency of the programs. Skoufias and Maro (2008) examine the efficiency effects of the Progresa Program in Mexico. This program is designed to
increase school enrollments among children so that they can become active participants in the
future labor market. These educational grants are provided only to households with children
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enrolled in Grades 3–9. The study concludes that these CCTs are effective at increasing the
literacy rate and labor force participation over time in Mexico (see also Saavedra and Garcia
2012).
These CCT programs are also designed to promote gender equality in the education
sector. In this regard, Schurmann (2009) has worked on a female secondary-school stipend
project in Bangladesh aiming to increase female enrollments. The program has an overarching
objective of increasing female empowerment by generating employment opportunities for
them. Using the Social Exclusion Framework, it finds that harassment, poverty, early-age
marriages, and childbirth are responsible for preventing girls from attending school. The
results illustrate that the CCT project was able to increase women’s empowerment in various
ways via increased female secondary schooling. Furthermore, Barrera-Osorio et al. (2008)
asserts that conditional cash transfers should be based on school attendance and part of the
money should be paid before admission. Students’ own attitudes should also be considered
before granting these scholarships.
Along with the provision of educational grants, some transfer programs are designed to
invest in the health and nutrition of students, especially female students. Barham (2009)
evaluates the performance of a pilot CCT program called Red de Protección Social (RPS),
which was implemented in two regions of Nicaragua. RPS was a multipronged approach to
promoting the gender equality with balanced human capital. It provides cash payments to
females for increasing their participation in education, schooling of children, health services,
and nutrition. Results showed that this program had a positive impact on school enrollments.
However, its impact was greatly reduced by negative economic shocks such as droughts and
dwindling coffee prices.
1.4 Literature on Pakistan
The UNESCO (2012a) report proposes that developing countries should spend at least 4 %
of their GDP on education. In contrast, Pakistan spends around 2 % of its GDP on education.
Furthermore, a lack of schools, inadequate facilities at existing schools, and ghost schools
in remote areas are adding to this problem.5 Under the business-as-usual scenario, Pakistan
will need 38 years to achieve universal primary education, and it will require approximately
16 years to attain an 86 % literacy rate. There is evidence that education and income poverty
reinforce each other. Chaudhry et al. (2010) finds that education has a direct impact on skill
development, which in turn has positive effects on the overall economic growth process. Some
indirect effects are also accrued such as awareness about basic rights, health issues such as
clean drinking water, and sanitation. Empirical results indicate that education significantly
alleviates the incidence of absolute poverty.
In developing countries, the views of local communities on female education are very
important. Most decisions in such countries are based on the perceptions of society regarding education. Shahzad et al. (2011) analyzed the attitude of the community and parents
toward female education in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The authors found that people
were unaware of the direct and indirect benefits associated with educating female children.
Independent Evaluation Group (2011) produced the same results for Punjab province. The
short-run impact evaluation shows that CCTs increase female school enrollment by 23 %.
Furthermore, they have a significant impact on productivity, consumption, and intergenera5 The term ghost school refers to those educational institutions that have a physical infrastructure but no
teachers or students. There have been instances where local influential persons use these state-owned premises
for their own interests.
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tional human capital accumulation in the long run. In view of the aforementioned factors and
given the gaps in the literature specific to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, the objectives of
our inquiry in this paper are given as follows.
• Review outputs and outcomes associated with the stipend (CCT) allocated to female
students attending secondary school in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
• Identify changes required in program design and compensatory schemes to enhance
progress in schooling for girls.
• Evaluate the transmission channels and their capacity to reach the poor.
• Evaluate the role played by the program in reducing the gender gap in education indicators.
• Assess the monitoring and evaluation system associated with the program.
• Review the process of stipend distribution.
• Identify the actions needed for better implementation of the program.
2 Methodology
This section briefly discusses the quantitative and qualitative tools that are used to assess the
impact of stipends on female education. The following chart summarizes the methodology
employed in the present study.
Our household survey (given the time and physical constraints in this region bordering
Afghanistan) was comprised of randomly selected households from three randomly selected
districts: Battgram, Hangu, and Shangla. In total, the sample size was 600 households. Further, 25 in-depth key informant interviews (KIIs) were also conducted in each of the specified
districts. We also validated our quantitative output through a qualitative method, for example, focus group discussions (FGDs) were conducted in each district. The household-level
questionnaire focused on (a) location variables, (b) employment, income and consumption
profile of households, (c) community environment, (d) availability of and access to school,
and (e) quality of school infrastructure.
This study used a limited dependent variable model for estimation purposes, also known as
a probit model. It is a maximum-likelihood estimation technique widely used in the literature
(Njong 2010; Geda et al. 2005; Ai and Norton 2003). In this model, female education depends
on multiple factors including financial well-being, access to education, family size, household
bias in favor of male children’s education, awareness, education level of household head, and
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economic conditions of the household. The detailed results of this binary response function
are discussed in the next section.
3 Results from survey exercise
This section combines our results from household-level survey data, community-level FGDs,
and KIIs with government officials and community representatives. We examine how the
stipend program has impacted the enrollment levels and public awareness about female
education. Most of the households believe that stipend money has a favorable impact on
female education and that CCTs alleviate their financial constraints as well. The districtwise
impact of the stipend program reveals that female enrollment has increased in secondary
schools in all the surveyed districts. According to the results, 93 % of families have availed
themselves of the stipend program, resulting in a 7 % increase in female enrollments over the
time period of this program. Just in Hangu and Battagram districts, female enrollment rates
increased by 16 and 12 %, respectively. It may be mentioned here that Hangu is a hard-hit
district due to the ongoing war on terrorism.
After the receipt of stipend money, females devote their relatively greater time to study,
which in turn results in a reduced dropout rate from secondary school. Transfer payments have
an income effect and make it easier for households to increase their consumption because
they have access to stipend money. Because the transfers are in the form of CCTs, though
households are free to allocate the cash received (among their competing demands) as they
see fit, but with one condition – that school attendance of female children should not drop
below 80 %. In this way, we find that the stipends reduce poverty, and results indicate that
only 49.7 % of the stipend amount is consumed for female education expenses while the rest
of it is used to meet household consumption demands. In addition, 58 % of families responded
that this stipend money was sufficient, whereas 42 % of families responded that it was not
according to their expectations. The benefits associated with stipend money are not uniform
across all households. For families earning less than PKR 5,000/month, the stipend amount
was the basic source of education for their female children. In our sample this was the case
for 82 % of households. For relatively higher income groups, the need for stipend money is
relatively less urgent.
In the absence of stipend money, the female enrollment rate at the secondary level was
found to be low at 65 %, implying that 35 % of female students might drop out in the absence
of this stipend. This confirms the importance of such CCTs for female education, particularly
for the poorest regions. On the whole, the stipend program shows a pareto improvement in
society: someone is better off without making anyone worse off. The stipend program has
brought many females to a better position with no adverse effects on society.
The data show that around 80 % of households were aware of schools, teaching staff,
infrastructure, and the stipend program. About 84 % of households reported that schools
provided basic facilities like furniture, chairs, tables, and desks; 94 % of female schools
had trained and qualified teaching staff. Hence the argument of scarcity of resources, lack
of trained teachers, and nonavailability of educational facilities is not correct; rather, other
factors are responsible for the low enrollment rates.
The enrollment rate of girls is 86 % in secondary schools, showing a structural change
toward female education. People are realizing the importance of education for females; several community members reported that educated female members can now contribute to the
development of subsequent generations. This trend is very encouraging in the Shangla district, where 97 % of females now attend secondary school. However, uneven socioeconomic
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conditions make female education less attractive, and in the overall sample, 14 % of girls were
unable to attend secondary school because of communal constraints (i.e., related to individual
or household harsh living conditions, distance to school, and lack of transportation).
The parental economic status matters greatly for female education because a sound family
background in terms of education and earnings might facilitate children’s education as well.
Results show that 32 % of dropouts were due to severe financial constraints as these families
were barely able to meet basic household needs. The distance of schools from home and
the availability of safe public transportation are important determinants of female education.
The former in particular forces parents to send their daughters to informal schools (e.g.,
madrassah). Around 81 % of the girls in our sample perform household chores, whereas 10 %
were working in nonfarm activities. On average, a female child could earn PKR 2,500/month,
and this is part of the reason that some respondents opted to drop out of secondary school.
3.1 Results from probit model
This section reports the findings based on our probit model. Household decisions are determined by various factors, including social interaction and economic and cultural aspects,
so the present study examines the impact of these factors on girls’ likelihood of attending
school. More precisely, these factors include the education level of household heads and
their spouse, family size, awareness about the benefits of education, household economic
conditions, distance of home from school, and satisfaction with services provided by the
school.
Our results reveal that all the variables in the model are statistically significant except child
illness. Family size has a negative impact on female education. A large family size reduces the
chances of female education by 0.7 % (Table 3). This phenomenon also explains the impact
of resource constraints faced by families, which in turn results in dropout or nonenrolllment.
Under such circumstances it is common to see families preferring the education of male over
female children (Mogstad and Wiswall 2009).
Attitudes toward female education are influenced by the parents’ education level. Educated parents realize the importance of education for both boys and girls. Our results confirm
that one additional year of schooling of the household head increases the chances of female
education by 1.8 %. This is also the case with the educational level of the spouse of the household head: one additional year of schooling of the spouse of the household head improves
the chances of female education by 3.3 %. Chevalier and Lanot (2002) argue that the impact
of financial constraints on female education is less important than parental educational level.
The distance of the school from the home is an important determinant of female education;
the chances that a female will receive an education decrease if the school is located far from
home. Our results indicate a negative and significant impact of an increase in distance of
the school from home. The chances of female education decrease by 2.8 % if there is a 1 %
increase in the school distance. Furthermore, the quality of education plays a role. Satisfactory
educational services have a significant impact on female education. The likelihood of female
education increases by 11 % if the family is satisfied with the educational services provided
by the school.
Family income is an important determinant of female education in the selected districts
because the average family located at a distant place faces severe resource constraints. However, smaller families with higher incomes can invest more in education, but they are few
in number. A 1 % rise in household income increases the chances of female education by
0.3 %. This result is consistent with the findings of Hobcraft and Kiernan (2001). The lack
of resources causes poor families to pull their girls out of school and put them in an informal
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Table 3 Probit model for
females attending school
Dependent variable: female attending school = 1, 0 otherwise.
Variables
Probit model
Marginal fixed effects
Illness at home
−0.11
−0.046
(0.128)
(0.051)
Spouse education
−0.02**
−0.007**
(0.006)
Household size
(0.002)
HH education
0.08***
0.033***
(0.023)
(0.009)
Radio (awareness)
0.018***
(0.002)
0.008*
.003*
(0.003)
HH income
0.05***
(0.005)
(0.0015)
0.052*
(0.057)
Economic conditions of HH
0.13*
(0.023)
0.12***
0.047***
(0.027)
(0.010)
0.03
0.011
(0.024)
Local economic conditions
(0.009)
Satisfaction with school
−0.07***
−0.028***
(0.020)
Distance from high school
(0.008)
0.110***
(0.028)
0.07***
0.0003***
(0.002)
Conditional cash transfers
0.28***
(0.072)
(0.000)
District level controls
−0.33***
−0.131***
(0.087)
Shangla
(0.033)
−0.10
−0.038
(0.082)
Bonair
(0.033)
−0.37**
−0.14**
(0.085)
Hangu
(0.033)
−0.11***
(0.036)
Battagram
−0.72***
−0.27***
(0.115)
Kohistan
The probit model uses zero and
one as its fundamental units.
Therefore, correlations may not
be very accurate. This is a
limitation of this research study
Standard errors are reported in
parentheses. ***, **, and *
indicate 1, 5, and 10 % levels of
significance, respectively. HH
Household
−0.28***
(0.094)
Tank
(0.038)
0.19***
0.074***
(0.081)
(0.032)
−0.81***
–
(0.213)
–
Observations
3,123
–
LR Chi2
394.43
Constant
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V. Ahmed, M. Zeshan
labor situation so that they can earn money to feed the family. The relationship between the
attainment of education and income has become more important in the context of increasing
income inequalities.
Household awareness about the importance of education plays a crucial role in girls’
education. If the family head recognizes the short- and long-term benefits associated with
education, then the family will be more interested in the education of girls. The present study
employs radio use at home as a proxy of awareness. Results explain that socioeconomic
awareness increases the chances of female education by 5.2 %. Economic conditions of the
household and of the local area are both essential determinants of female education. Results
indicate that improved economic conditions of a household and local area increase the chances
of female education by 4.7 and 1.1 %, respectively, consistent with Chevalier (2004).
The provincial government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is working under the
assumption that CCTs would increase the transitional income of households. In this way, the
government might improve the efficiency of female education in the province. Our results
indicate that this stipend money improves the chances of female education by 0.03 %, which
is very low. This result is consistent with actual government data on treatment and control
groups (given in the next section), which assert that the impact of CCTs falls after 2 years.
Hence, along with the provision of CCTs the government should eliminate other bottlenecks that represent the main hurdles preventing female education in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
province.
3.2 Results from secondary data
This section evaluates the impact of stipend money on the treatment group as compared
to the control group. The treatment group comprises the cluster of districts where CCTs
are distributed in households, whereas the control group comprises the nonprogram areas.
The treatment group includes the Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan, Shangla, Tank, and
Upper Dir districts, whereas the control group includes the Chitral, DI Khan, Karak, Kohat,
Lakki, Lower Dir, and Malakand districts. This analysis covers the period 2006–2010. Our
examination reveals that from 2006 to 2008, school enrollments in the treatment group
increased more rapidly compared to the control group (Fig. 4). However, the relative growth
in enrollments did not remain constant for the next 2 years, implying that the impact of CCTs
Fig. 4 Enrollment in treatment and control groups (percentage change)
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An analysis of the social impact of the stipend program
starts decreasing after just 2 years. This result indicates some obstacles (other than educationrelated expenses) that discouraged female enrollments in the target districts after 2008.
4 Conclusion
In 2006, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan initiated a CCT in
the form of a stipend program for female secondary-school students that aimed to increase
secondary-school enrollments among girls. In this program, stipend money in the amount
of PKR 200/month was given to each girl starting in 2006. After 1 year, in 2007, around
0.28 million female students were registered under this program. This project shows the
commitment of the provincial government to attaining MDGs. The target area of this stipend
program comprised seven backward districts, including Battagram, Bonair, Hangu, Kohistan,
Shangla, Tank, and Upper Dir. Preliminary analysis indicated that all these districts were
below the average provincial literacy rate except Upper Dir and Battagram. Other than the
low literacy rate, the gender gap is very obvious in these districts.
Our household-level survey exercise reveals that the stipend program has a significant
impact on female education because it eases household financial constraints. It has increased
female enrollment in secondary schools, and around 93 % of families have availed themselves
of the stipend program, resulting in a 7 % increase in female enrollments. Survey results
reveal that 35 % of girls might drop out in the absence of stipend money. Around 80 % of the
households were aware of schools, teaching staff, infrastructure, and the stipend program.
Approximately 84 % of households reported that the schools provided basic facilities like
furniture, chairs, tables, and desks; 94 % of female schools had trained and qualified teaching
staff.
The female secondary-school enrollment rate is 86 %, showing a structural change toward
female education. However, uneven socioeconomic conditions make female education less
attractive, and 14 % of girls were unable to attend secondary school because of constraints
related to harsh living conductions, distance from school, and lack of safe transportation.
Results showed that 32 % of the dropouts left school due to severe financial constraints;
they were barely able to meet basic household needs. Females in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa also
work in household and nonfarm activities, and 81 % of girls performed household chores,
whereas 10 % worked in nonfarm activities (making the decision for education difficult for
their households).
The results of the probit model reveal that family size has a negative impact on female
education. A marginal increase in family size decreases the chances of female education by
0.7 %. One additional year of education of the head of household has a positive and significant
impact on female education, raising the chances of female education by 1.8 %. This is also the
case with the educational level of household head’s spouse, one additional year of schooling
for whom improves the chances of female education by 3.3 %.
The chances of female education decrease by 2.8 % with a 1 % increase in distance from
school. The likelihood of a female attending school increases by 11 % if her family is satisfied
with the educational services provided by the school. A 1 % rise in family income increases the
chances of female education by 0.3 %. The results also show that if the family is aware of the
socioeconomic benefits of education, then the chances of female education increase by 5.2 %.
The economic conditions of the household and of the local area are essential determinants
of female education. Results indicate that improved economic conditions in both households
and the local area increase the chances of female education by 4.7 and 1.1 % respectively.
Finally, stipend money through CCTs improves the chances of female education by 0.03 %.
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V. Ahmed, M. Zeshan
This low level of gain associated with stipend disbursement indicates that provision of CCTs
must be supplemented by other reforms that would improve community awareness about
education, reduce the distance from school, provide safe public transportation to children,
and address lacking facilities at female schools.
4.1 Policy recommendations
Over the course of this study, we also conducted in-depth interviews with education department officials. Therefore, a few of our recommendations focus on process and institutional
mechanisms that can further strengthen the efficiency of this program. What follow are the
main policy recommendations of our study.
• For families earning less than PKR 5,000/month, the stipend amount is the basic source
of motivation for educating their children. Ensuring a smooth and timely flow of funds
can facilitate female education in these households. In the past there have been delays
in the receipt of promised stipends, which discouraged parents and in some cases led
to discontinuing a child’s education. Such lapses in the government’s own organization
need to be addressed.
• Cultural constraints make female education difficult in places, and therefore regular
awareness campaigns are recommended to reduce the impact of such taboos. Engagement
with communities can take the form of local language literature focusing on the benefits
of female education, street theaters, and the strengthening of parent–teacher associations.
• The distance of schools from home is a major impediment to female education; parents
prefer to send their daughters to informal schools (e.g., madrassah in mosques) in cases
where formal schools are far away. Accessibility to school should be made easy through
the provision of safe public transportation or by constructing new schools in far-flung
regions. The latter is only possible if there are teachers willing to serve in the distant
areas.
• Many females are involved in household chores and other nonfarm activities, which
reduces female enrollments in schools. Mandatory female education enforced by law
can increase female enrollments in secondary schools.
• The impact of financial constraints on female education is less important than parental
education. Female enrollments can be increased by educating their parents. The aforementioned awareness programs can be customized for parental knowledge.
• The stipend money only slightly improves the chances of female education because
of the many operational bottlenecks. The impact of stipend money can be increased if
government would consider and address the following impediments:
(a) Secondary education budget formulation is based upon arbitrary assumptions; a more
scientific approach by the Department of Education of the government of Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa would bring greater efficiency to the system.
(b) An interdepartmental committee is needed to address coordination issues (resulting
in delayed processing of stipends), including representatives from the finance department, planning and development department, education department, Pakistan post
office, accounting general office, and Executive District Officers in the government
of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
(c) A transparent procedure for the monitoring and evaluation of the stipend program is
required. The government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province is responsible for laying
down clear monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for the development budget in
the province in accordance with the 18th constitutional amendment in Pakistan.
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An analysis of the social impact of the stipend program
Acknowledgments The authors are economists at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute. We would
like to acknowledge the financial support of UNDP and the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Pakistan
and the technical advice of two internal referees.
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