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Andraž Zorko: The End Of Research As We Know It

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Andraž Zorko: The End Of Research As We Know It

  1. 1. The End of Research as We Know It Andraž Zorko partner at Valicon VALICON © 2007 | www.valicon. net October 2007
  2. 2. About the future <ul><ul><li>&quot;I think the future will be cool. When the weather is not good, all you need to do is push a button and your house would be up above the clouds. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>All the schools would have computers. And whenever you want to go somewhere you'll have a flying board to take you there. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Also, when your house is messy, you just call your maid, Rose.&quot; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dorian Flores, age 8 </li></ul></ul>
  3. 3. About predictions <ul><ul><li>“ Those who have knowledge, don’t predict. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Those who predict, don’t have knowledge.” </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>LAO TZU </li></ul></ul>
  4. 4. 2009 - 2017: The net reshapes the world <ul><ul><li>“ The internet permeates our lives and begins radically reshaping our institutions, even as breakthroughs in other fields promise fundamental changes in living standards and all future human endeavor; personal computing gets still more powerful even as costs drop further; net users in the developed nations are becoming increasingly isolated in terms of typical historical human interaction.” </li></ul></ul>
  5. 5. 2018 - 2025: Consumer robotics and personal virtual realities go mainstream <ul><ul><li>“ Personal virtual realities are taking marketshare from TV, radio, films, and other media; near paperless offices, wireless appliances becoming the norm; consumer robotics go mainstream; adequate hardware to support human level intelligence at consumer level prices becomes available.” </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. We are living in a prehistorical times of the information society <ul><ul><li>We are using telephones for taking photos while they are being less and less useful as telephones. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>You can still meet people that wear two mobiles in the pocket. And mp3 player. And GPS. And... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>You are talking to your computer eventhough you know it can not hear you. Nor does he listen... </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>The picture on TV in this very hotel is worse since new televisions were installed. </li></ul></ul>
  7. 7. Key question: How to distinguish a buzzword from the real thing? <ul><li>(1) Technology </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it usable? Is it utile? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can it be marketed? </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(2) Communications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it coming from the people? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Is it made – is it usable and utile - for the people? </li></ul></ul>
  8. 8. Do you remember WAP? <ul><li>Wirelles Application Protocol. </li></ul><ul><li>It failed on usability. </li></ul><ul><li>No usability, no utility. </li></ul><ul><li>No utility, no market. </li></ul><ul><li>No market, no future. </li></ul>
  9. 9. What about the I-phone? <ul><li>It is usable. </li></ul><ul><li>It is utile. </li></ul><ul><li>It is fancy. </li></ul><ul><li>It was very well marketed. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Do you remember... The text of the everlegendary 1984 ad for Macintosh <ul><li>“ Today, we celebrate the first glorious anniversary of the Information Purification Directives. We have created, for the first time in all history, a garden of pure ideology. Where each worker may bloom secure from the pests of contradictory and confusing truths. Our Unification of Thoughts is more powerful a weapon than any fleet or army on earth. We are one people, with one will, one resolve, one cause. Our enemies shall talk themselves to death and we will bury them with their own confusion. We shall prevail!” </li></ul>
  11. 11. Revolution eats its children... 1984 2007
  12. 12. Catching the cluetrain ( www.cluetrain.com , 1999) <ul><ul><li>(1) Markets are conversations. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(2) Markets consist of human beings, not demographic sectors. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(3) Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(5) The Internet is enabling conversations among human beings that were simply not possible in the era of mass media. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(12) There are no secrets. The networked market knows more than companies do about their own products. And whether the news is good or bad, they tell everyone. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(74) We are immune to advertising. Just forget it. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>(95) We are waking up and linking to each other. We are watching. But we are not waiting. </li></ul></ul>
  13. 13. Example: The (r)evolution of print media consumer Reader Pasive User Active Participant generating content Journalist Publisher Producer Advertiser
  14. 14. The biggest mistakes media planners are making today are... <ul><li>(1) Including the Internet in media mix and treating it as just another media where to put the ads in: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Such advertising (i.e. banners/video) is nothing new. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Such approach denies everything what internet is about. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>(2) Thinking about the consumers as target groups: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>There are no “man or woman age 20-35 with above average income”, on the other side. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is NO other side. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>There is Igor and his social network. He may be age 25 etc., but more importantly, he is thinking of your product as completely useless while sharing the thought with his closest friends, many of whom he never met in person. </li></ul></ul>
  15. 15. Future media <ul><li>WOM. </li></ul><ul><li>Ubiquitous internet. </li></ul><ul><li>Social networks. </li></ul><ul><li>Search engines. </li></ul><ul><li>Portable multi-functional devices. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(video, audio, voice and text communication, GPS,...) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>And any kind of one-on-one communication in any form imaginable... and not imaginable. </li></ul>
  16. 16. What will die ... sooner or later? <ul><li>Web pages without any or low level interactivity. </li></ul><ul><li>Television as we know it today. </li></ul><ul><li>Any media that is not going </li></ul><ul><li>to adopt to one-on-one </li></ul><ul><li>communication with the </li></ul><ul><li>user/participant. </li></ul><ul><li>Will newspapers die? </li></ul>
  17. 17. The role of marketing research is changing: from a supplier to the consultant Data Collection Integrating the research as a strategic function in marketing decision process. Mulliple Source Data Management Data Fusion, Data Mining Survey Immersion (video) Etnography Information Insight Intelligence Observation Prediction
  18. 18. What about the media research? <ul><li>Traditional media measurements are becoming </li></ul><ul><ul><li>impossible to conduct </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>already out-of-date when they are ready to be used </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>unnecessary, senseless and too expensive </li></ul></ul>Single media measurements (TAM, NRS) Multi media measurements (TGI, NRS) Media & Brand measurements (PGM, Touchpoint) Single source data Data fusion Predictions
  19. 19. Measuring, studying and learning from the effects instead of measuring potential exposure <ul><li>No measurement that treats consumers as “group of many” can survive. </li></ul><ul><li>Instead of traditional exposure measurements we will: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>track down the digital trails, search engines etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>study the social networks </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>analyze lots and lots of texts </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>track down and study the effects of past communications and marketing efforts as such </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>learn from each and every past experience </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>build models and try to predict </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>hope that a miracle will happen </li></ul></ul>
  20. 20. The evolution of a researcher
  21. 21. And if you think this is impossible...
  22. 22. Thank you Some photos were sponsored by: VALICON Zagreb Petra Grgeca 9 10000 Zagreb Tel: +385-1-6331-500 Fax: +385-1-6314-033 [email_address] Rep. Office Sarajevo Prušćakova 2 71000 Sarajevo Tel: +387-33-688-975 Fax: +387-33-668-975 [email_address] VALICON Ljubljana Kopitarjeva 2 1000 Ljubljana Tel: +386-1-420-49-00 Fax: +386-1-420-49-60 info@valicon.net www.ipak.si
  23. 23. [email_address] Thank you! Second option of closing slide VALICON Zagreb Petra Grgeca 9 10000 Zagreb T: +385 1 633 15 00 F: +385 1 631 40 33 [email_address] VALICON Sarajevo Pruš ć akova 2 71000 Sarajevo T: +387 33 688 975 F: +387 33 668 975 [email_address] VALICON Ljubljana Kopitarjeva 2 1000 Ljubljana T: +386 1 420 49 00 F: +386 1 420 49 60 info@valicon.net

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