1. Newspaper extinction timeline
When newspapers in their current form will become insignificant* USA 2017
UK, Iceland 2019
Canada, Norway 2020
Finland, Singapore, Greenland 2021
Australia, Hong Kong 2022
Denmark 2023
New Zealand, Spain, Czech, Taiwan 2024
Poland, Sweden, Switzerland 2025
South Korea, Metro Russia, Belgium 2026
Netherlands, Ireland, Metro Brazil, Italy 2027
Austria, Slovakia, Greece, Portugal, U.A.E. 2028
France, Israel, Malaysia, Croatia 2029
Germany, Estonia 2030
Japan, Metro China 2031
Hungary, Lithuania 2032
Latvia, Metro Mexico 2033
Serbia, Saudi Arabia 2034
Bulgaria, Chile, Uruguay 2035
Russia, Turkey 2036
Metro South Africa, Thailand 2037
Mongolia 2038
Argentina 2039
— stripes indicate that newspapers will be extinct in metropolitan areas before regional areas
Rest of the world 2040+
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2. Newspaper extinction timeline: key factors
Technology uptake Economic Industry structure
Increased cost Fixed bandwidth development Financial position of
performance availability and costs Economic growth rate leading newspapers
of mobile Mobile bandwidth Wealth inequality Balance of advertising
phones availability and costs and print sales revenue
Increased cost Development Urban/ regional wealth
Smartphone and e-reader disparity Newspaper distribution
performance of high penetration structures
of tablets/ performance
e-readers digital paper
Changes in GLOBAL
Uptake of NATIONAL
newsprint digital news
and print monetization
production mechanisms
costs
Demographics Government Consumer behaviors
Age structure, birth rates, Degree of regulation Media channel preferences
Trends in and immigration
Development Government financial Willingness to pay for news
advertising Degree of urbanization support for media
of open Relative interest in local
spend and
platforms Increase in literacy Censorship and and global news
allocation obstruction
* Notes to the timeline Services include: fen@futureexploration.net
This schedule for newspaper Newspapers in their Ways that newspaper publishers of • Media Strategy USA: (415) 315 9566
extinction shows best current form becoming today will succeed in the transition
• Scenario Planning
estimates given current trends. insignificant is not the beyond “newspapers in their Australia: +61-2 9994 8011
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The timeline is intended to same as the death of current form” include transitioning
highlight the diversity of global news-on-paper, which to other channels, providing media organizations to engage with • Thought Leadership Content
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