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The 2nd in World GDP and Rising




                          Source: GE Presentation
The 2nd in World GDP and Rising




                          Source: GE Presentation
Beat Target over 11 Years in a row




              Source: CEIC, Central Government’s Website, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Beat Target over 11 Years in a row




              Source: CEIC, Central Government’s Website, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
Energy Consumption in China
Energy consumption in US, China and India 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu)




                                             Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
                                                           Source: McKinsey Insights China
Natural Gas Demand
  Non-OECD Asia Net Natural Gas Trade 2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet)
World Natural Gas consumption      Natural Gas consumption in non-OECD Asia
 2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet)           2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet)




                                               Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Electricity Consumption
Trillion kilowatt-hours




                                  Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
                                                Source: McKinsey Insights China
Changing demographics




                  Source: McKinsey Insights China
High Saving Rate




Source: World Bank, 2011
Shift in GDP Composition
 Less Investment & Export  More Consumption




                                          Source: FT.com




GDP = CONSUMP + INVEST + GOVT + (EX – IM)
Low Debt Per GDP
Interest Rate Cut move Stock Market
Excess Liquidity Move Stock
      WHEN
  MONEY SUPPLY
 GROW MORE THAN
      GDP
HK MARKET GOES UP
Yuan Appreciation

2005 CNY Revaluation




                       Source: XE.com
New City New Transport System




                      Source: Yum Brand Presentation
Infrastructure Champion
$900B + infrastructure funding only China alone




                                           Source: GE Presentation
Infrastructure Champion




                      Source: GE Presentation
High Speed Rails & Roads




Source: Morgan Stanley Research
Low PE compared to History




                        Source: USFunds.com
Simple 10-20 Rule Concept
        Buy at a P/E of 10 and Sell at a P/E of 20
Date Yrs Hold Return
1974 1.3       180%
1982 4.8       463%
1989 4.4       430%
1995 2.6       126%
1998 1.8       116%
2008 2.2       88%
2012 Buy       XXX %




                           Now P/E = 9.2
                                                Price As of 28/6/12
Fund Asset Allocation
Portfolio Holding
China National Offshore Oil
                                        Fundamental
                                        •    Revenue – 293.81bn HKD
                                        •    Net Profit – 85.67bn HKD
                                        •    EPS – 1.91 HKD
                  Ticker: 0883
                  Listed: HSKI, NYSE    •    Debt/Equity – 14.5%
                                        •    Dividend Yield – 3.55%
Qualitative                             •    P/E – 7.66X
•   China No.1 Offshore Producer        •    ROE – 29.36%
•   Daily production 900,000 BOE
•   15 Projects under construction
•   6 – 10% CAGR Next 5 years
•   No.3 NOC (National Oil Company)
                                  Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
CHINA Mobile Limited
                                       Fundamental
                                      •     Revenue – 643.85bn HKD
                                      •     Net Profit – 153.49bn HKD
                   Ticker: 0941       •     EPS – 7.56 HKD
                   Listed: HSKI, NYSE
                                      •     Debt/Equity – 4.4%
                                      •     Dividend Yield – 3.97%
Qualitative                           •     P/E – 11.09X
• World’s Largest Mobile Carrier      •     ROE – 20.52%
• Subscriber 644 millions
• TD-SCDMA Standard
• iPhone 4S deal in Q2’12
• SOE (State Owned Enterprises)
                                 Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
CHINA Mobile Limited
ICBC
                                            Fundamental
                                            •    Revenue – 771.93bn HKD
                                            •    Net Profit – 263.16bn HKD
                                            •    EPS – 0.7415 HKD
                    Ticker: 1398
                    Listed: HSKI, SHH       •    Debt/Equity – 203.68%
                                            •    Dividend Yield – 5.82%
Qualitative                                 •    P/E – 5.73X
• The world's most profitable bank          •    ROE – 22.79%
  with the largest market capitalization
  in the world, 2011
• Net profit has increased yoy with the
  highest net profits among its peers

                                    Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited
                                         Fundamental
                                       •      Revenue – 59.33bn HKD
                                       •      Net Profit – 14.13bn HKD
                    Ticker: 0914
                    Listed: HSKI, NYSE •      EPS – 2.67 HKD
                                       •      Debt/Equity – 33.90%
Qualitative                            •      Dividend Yield – 2.08%
• China No.1 Cement Producer           •      P/E – 7.93X
• Products used by over 20 countries •        ROE – 24.95%
• "Top Quality and Sincere Service"
• Earning growth contributors 
  rural & public housing projects
• SOE (State Owned Enterprises)
                                  Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited




              Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
Why Invest in Gold ?


     Store of Value
     Safe Haven
     Alternative Currency
Why Invest in Gold ?
Inflation
            Store of Value
                     Value
            Safe Haven
            Alternative Currency
Why Invest in Gold ?
  Inflation
Economic Crisis
                  Store of Value
                           Value
                  Safe Haven
     War
                  Alternative Currency
Why Invest in Gold ?
   Inflation
Economic Crisis
Central bank Reserve
USD Weakness
Lower Interest Rate
                        Store of Value
                                 Value
Money into risk asset
                        Safe Haven
       War
                        Alternative Currency
Gold vs. Dollar
Gold vs. Dollar
SPDR Gold Trust
Gold Mining vs. Gold Price




2.   The mining had to “catch up” to expectations which
     already built into the gold markets.
3.   Mining companies issue new shares to raise capital that
     decrease EPS while Market Cap inflated a lot
Newmont Mining
                                            Fundamental
                                            •    Revenue – 10.36bn USD
                                            •    Net Profit – 502mn USD
                                            •    EPS – 0.9713 HKD
                                            •    Debt/Equity – 33.4%
 Ticker: NEM                                •    Dividend Yield – 2.73%
 Listed: NYSE                               •    P/E – 52.79X
Qualitative                                 •    ROE – 3.83%
• A gold producer operate in North
  America, South America, Asia Pacific
  and Africa.
• Gold Reserves of 98.8 million ounces
                                 Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
BHP Billiton
                                          Fundamental
                                          •    Revenue – 74.40bn AUD
                                          •    Net Profit – 22.25bn AUD
                                          •    EPS – 4.10 AUD
 Ticker: BHP                              •    Debt/Equity – 40.41%
 Listed: ASX                              •    Dividend Yield – 4.25%
                                          •    P/E – 8.45X
Qualitative
                                          •    ROE – 38.59%
• A largest global resources producer
  operate in 25 countries
• Mines copper, aluminum, diamonds,
  uranium, iron, gold, and coal, and
  has proved oil reserves
                                 Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
Agricultures




               Source: USAID.gov As of 28/6/12
Agricultures




               Source: USAID.gov As of 28/6/12
PowerShares DB Agricultures
Department Organization Chart
Department Organization Chart
Our Investment Approach
Our Investment Process
Our Investment Process
Performance Summary
Thank You

Questions
    &
Answers

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Phillip Thailand Offshore Private Fund

  • 1.
  • 2. The 2nd in World GDP and Rising Source: GE Presentation
  • 3. The 2nd in World GDP and Rising Source: GE Presentation
  • 4. Beat Target over 11 Years in a row Source: CEIC, Central Government’s Website, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
  • 5. Beat Target over 11 Years in a row Source: CEIC, Central Government’s Website, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. Energy Consumption in China Energy consumption in US, China and India 1990-2035 (quadrillion Btu) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: McKinsey Insights China
  • 9. Natural Gas Demand Non-OECD Asia Net Natural Gas Trade 2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet) World Natural Gas consumption Natural Gas consumption in non-OECD Asia 2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet) 2008-2035 (trillion cubic feet) Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
  • 10. Electricity Consumption Trillion kilowatt-hours Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Source: McKinsey Insights China
  • 11.
  • 12. Changing demographics Source: McKinsey Insights China
  • 13. High Saving Rate Source: World Bank, 2011
  • 14. Shift in GDP Composition Less Investment & Export  More Consumption Source: FT.com GDP = CONSUMP + INVEST + GOVT + (EX – IM)
  • 15.
  • 17. Interest Rate Cut move Stock Market
  • 18. Excess Liquidity Move Stock WHEN MONEY SUPPLY GROW MORE THAN GDP HK MARKET GOES UP
  • 19. Yuan Appreciation 2005 CNY Revaluation Source: XE.com
  • 20.
  • 21. New City New Transport System Source: Yum Brand Presentation
  • 22. Infrastructure Champion $900B + infrastructure funding only China alone Source: GE Presentation
  • 23. Infrastructure Champion Source: GE Presentation
  • 24. High Speed Rails & Roads Source: Morgan Stanley Research
  • 25. Low PE compared to History Source: USFunds.com
  • 26. Simple 10-20 Rule Concept Buy at a P/E of 10 and Sell at a P/E of 20 Date Yrs Hold Return 1974 1.3 180% 1982 4.8 463% 1989 4.4 430% 1995 2.6 126% 1998 1.8 116% 2008 2.2 88% 2012 Buy XXX % Now P/E = 9.2 Price As of 28/6/12
  • 29. China National Offshore Oil Fundamental • Revenue – 293.81bn HKD • Net Profit – 85.67bn HKD • EPS – 1.91 HKD Ticker: 0883 Listed: HSKI, NYSE • Debt/Equity – 14.5% • Dividend Yield – 3.55% Qualitative • P/E – 7.66X • China No.1 Offshore Producer • ROE – 29.36% • Daily production 900,000 BOE • 15 Projects under construction • 6 – 10% CAGR Next 5 years • No.3 NOC (National Oil Company) Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 30. CHINA Mobile Limited Fundamental • Revenue – 643.85bn HKD • Net Profit – 153.49bn HKD Ticker: 0941 • EPS – 7.56 HKD Listed: HSKI, NYSE • Debt/Equity – 4.4% • Dividend Yield – 3.97% Qualitative • P/E – 11.09X • World’s Largest Mobile Carrier • ROE – 20.52% • Subscriber 644 millions • TD-SCDMA Standard • iPhone 4S deal in Q2’12 • SOE (State Owned Enterprises) Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 32. ICBC Fundamental • Revenue – 771.93bn HKD • Net Profit – 263.16bn HKD • EPS – 0.7415 HKD Ticker: 1398 Listed: HSKI, SHH • Debt/Equity – 203.68% • Dividend Yield – 5.82% Qualitative • P/E – 5.73X • The world's most profitable bank • ROE – 22.79% with the largest market capitalization in the world, 2011 • Net profit has increased yoy with the highest net profits among its peers Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 33. Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Fundamental • Revenue – 59.33bn HKD • Net Profit – 14.13bn HKD Ticker: 0914 Listed: HSKI, NYSE • EPS – 2.67 HKD • Debt/Equity – 33.90% Qualitative • Dividend Yield – 2.08% • China No.1 Cement Producer • P/E – 7.93X • Products used by over 20 countries • ROE – 24.95% • "Top Quality and Sincere Service" • Earning growth contributors  rural & public housing projects • SOE (State Owned Enterprises) Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 34. Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 35.
  • 36. Why Invest in Gold ? Store of Value Safe Haven Alternative Currency
  • 37. Why Invest in Gold ? Inflation Store of Value Value Safe Haven Alternative Currency
  • 38. Why Invest in Gold ? Inflation Economic Crisis Store of Value Value Safe Haven War Alternative Currency
  • 39. Why Invest in Gold ? Inflation Economic Crisis Central bank Reserve USD Weakness Lower Interest Rate Store of Value Value Money into risk asset Safe Haven War Alternative Currency
  • 43. Gold Mining vs. Gold Price 2. The mining had to “catch up” to expectations which already built into the gold markets. 3. Mining companies issue new shares to raise capital that decrease EPS while Market Cap inflated a lot
  • 44. Newmont Mining Fundamental • Revenue – 10.36bn USD • Net Profit – 502mn USD • EPS – 0.9713 HKD • Debt/Equity – 33.4% Ticker: NEM • Dividend Yield – 2.73% Listed: NYSE • P/E – 52.79X Qualitative • ROE – 3.83% • A gold producer operate in North America, South America, Asia Pacific and Africa. • Gold Reserves of 98.8 million ounces Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 45. BHP Billiton Fundamental • Revenue – 74.40bn AUD • Net Profit – 22.25bn AUD • EPS – 4.10 AUD Ticker: BHP • Debt/Equity – 40.41% Listed: ASX • Dividend Yield – 4.25% • P/E – 8.45X Qualitative • ROE – 38.59% • A largest global resources producer operate in 25 countries • Mines copper, aluminum, diamonds, uranium, iron, gold, and coal, and has proved oil reserves Source: FT.com/ Businessweek.com/ Reuters.com As of 28/6/12
  • 46. Agricultures Source: USAID.gov As of 28/6/12
  • 47. Agricultures Source: USAID.gov As of 28/6/12
  • 55. Thank You Questions & Answers

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. China Mobile
  2. China Mobile
  3. China Mobile
  4. China Mobile
  5. China Mobile