APLUS Enerji's summary of World Energy Outlook 2018 Report by IEA

1. 1
Summary
World
Energy Outlook - 2018

2. 2
It is called the base scenario that uses the
official targets announced by governments.
New Policies
Scenario - NPS
Scenarios
It refers to a scenario where existing trends
are set to continue. It can be considered as
the high scenario.
Current Policies
Scenario - CPS
It uses UN Sustainable Development Goals,
which were acknowledged by 193 countries
in 2015, as the baseline.
It also takes into consideration the water
sector because of scope of the agreed
targets.
Sustainable
Development
Scenario- SDS
The WEO contains three main scenarios named as;
3 main aspects for the 3 scenarios
Affordability Reliability Sustainability

3. 3
20252017 2040 2016
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20
23
26
29
32
35
38
Demand (x103 TWh)
NPS
CPS
SDS
Electricity Demand
The WEO emphasizes the year 2018 as the year of
electricity.
The percentage of electricity usage in the energy sector is
continuously increasing for all scenarios. In 2040, the
share of electricity will be 24% according to NPS, while
the value accounts for 28% in the SDS, within total final
consumption.
The NPS indicates that the electricity demand is
increasing approximately 60% by the year of 2040, while
90% of this proportion arise from developing countries.
In developed countries, the growing electricity demand is
met by energy efficiency practices.

4. 4
New Policies
Scenario
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
HydroWind
Solar
Current
Policies
Scenario
Sustainable
Development
Scenario
Bioenergy
On the supply side, the total electricity
generation shows an increasing trend during
the projection period. The NPS results
indicate that the total generation from all
sources increase 60% rate in 2040.
The electricity generation from coal power
plants has the highest ratio in the total
generation with 25.6% and 32.5% in for NPS
and CPS, respectively, in year of 2040.
Unlike other scenarios, the electricity
generation from renewable energy sources
has the highest ratio in the total generation
with 66.2% in the same year, as per the
Sustainable Development Scenario.
Electricity Generation by Fuel Types

5. 5
The Share of Installed Capacity by Renewable Energy Sources
NPS
14%
NPS
20%
CPS
14%
CPS
16%
SDS
14%
SDS
29%
11% 19%
The share of renewable energy in the total installed
capacity continues to increase until the year of 2040 with
its share in total generation going up to 52%, 45% and
68% for NPS, CPS and SDS, respectively.

6. 6
Access to Electricity
For the first time, the number of people who do not have access to electricity
dropped below 1 billion in the world.
720 million people in the world will not reach electricity according to NPS, in 2040.
In Sustainable Development Scenario, 100% of world population will access to
electricity by 2030.

7. 7
Natural Gas & Oil
2025 20402017
Others
USA
There are six countries holding the leadership about of oil
and gas production, while the United States is ranked the
first among them.
Although huge demand for oil in developing countries, in
case of no investment in the oil sector, a large lack of
supply will happen after then 2020, according to NPS and
SDS.
Natural gas consumption continues to increase in all three
scenarios. The sector with the highest gas consumption is power
generation followed by industrial consumption, in 2040.
36.7% 26.6% 18.8%
38.1% 26.0% 19.4%
30.2% 29.2% 19.4%
NPS
CPS
SDS
Power Industry Building
Saudi Arabia
Russia

8. 8
Climate Change
Demand Response
Electric Vehicles
Battery Storage
Specific Topics
Flexibility is the most important point
for a reliable electricity system. It is
possible to achieve a reliable electricity
system goal through improvements in
battery storage and demand-side
management, which are two
components of the system.
On the emission control side, SDS has a
very different pattern from the other
two scenarios for CO2 emission. In
2040, both of the two scenarios show a
rising trend in CO2 emission, while the
current emissions will be fallen by half
according to SDS. The decreasing share
of fossil sources in power generation
provides a significant effect on
preventing of CO2 emission.
SDS focus on using less energy to
provide the same level of energy, so
this scenario particularly underlines
legal obligation and social awareness
for energy efficiency.
Energy Saving