The document discusses a project funded by the Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities program. It describes the different work packages in the project including emerging issues detection, priority setting and clustering, analysis of early warning signals, and deeper analysis of potential emerging issues. It poses questions about relating scanning activities to policies, priority setting procedures, the role of early warning signals, methods for further analysis, and the potential role of automation and text mining in horizon scanning procedures.

1. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Concept and approaches in the SESTI project
Victor van Rij
Workshop on Methods, 26th of Oktober 2010
University Foundation, Brussels

2. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Workpackages SESTI

3. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Main values
EWS
Pool of EWS
And potential Selected new emerging issues Discourse on emerging issues
Emerging Issues A…. N & wild card descriptions Policy action and values
Criteria Interests, Emotions, Facts Tanslate
& with accompanying signals &
Selection Dosage
EWS EWS Analysis High Level EC
Synthesis research policy
EWS EWS High Level EC
EWS Potential New EWS
EWS energy policy
EWS EWS Emerging High Level EC
EWS
Issue A health High Level EC
policy
EWS Potential New EWS EWS health policy
Emerging High Level EC
EWS IssuePotential New National High employment
Emerging EWS Level research policy
Potential New National high
EWS Issue EWS policy
EWS Emerging level health
EWS EWS EWS Issue B policy
National High
Potential New
EWS Emerging Level energy
Issue research policy
EWS EWS Potential New
EWS Regional policy
Emerging
Issue B C W General public
EWS others
EWS C

4. Early warning signals of the 2007 financial crisis Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
News on public risks subprime loans sample on News google timeline
100
90
80
70
Number of articles in sample
60
percentage not paying back
(subprime/alt a)
articles
50
Amount loaned subprime and
alt-a (x100 million US dollars)
40
30
20
10
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
years/quarters

5. Examples of early warning Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
signals
• It's a bomb! Shout in crowd sets-off
stampede at Amsterdam War Memorial

6. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
POTENTIAL EMERGING ISSUES
& WEAK SIGNALS
Negative behavior Growing suicides
against aged people amongst poor elderly?-
Increase post/near
Age discrimination retirement death?
Nano-medicin promises
increase in to cure every disease
employment?
Agism lays around the corner Demographic models
in Europese ageing future show 30-40 % above 65
say social scientist in 2040 Succes in cancer
research increase life
expectancy
Individualization of
society (trend)
Radical pension system change
Successful integration Negative news articles needed according
young migrants on aged people to chief economists
Indication for next Economic recovery not
financial crisis sure

7. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
POTENTIAL EMERGING ISSUES
& WEAK SIGNALS
Negative behavior Growing suicides
against aged people amongst poor elderly?-
Increase post/near
Age discrimination retirement death?
Nano-medicin promises
increase in to cure every disease
employment?
Agism lays around the corner Demographic models
in Europes ageing future show 30-40 % above 65
says social scientist in 2040 Succes in cancer
research increase life
Individualization of expectancy
society (trend)
Successful integration Negative news articles Radical pension system change
young migrants on aged people needed according
to chief economists
Indication for next
financial crisis Economic recovery not
sure

8. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Potential wild cards
Warning card Think card
Lobby card Propaganda card

9. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Questions Workshop
• Policy relatedness
• 1. How are scanning activities related to policies? Aggregation level and
timing ? Unpleasant news? Does the
• policy area impose certain methodological choices (except for budget
constraints) ?
• (please give your experience on this)

10. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Questions Workshop
• Priority setting and clustering
• 2. What are the practices and procedures of priority setting and /or
clustering you use or prefer? How are you
• conducting priority setting and clustering for what reasons. Who is
involved in the process of priority setting?
• What can be expected from policy makers in the process?

11. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Questions Workshop
• The use of early warning signals signals and where to start
• 3. What is the role of (weak or early) signals, should and can
(early‐weak) signals be used to detect complete
• new unknown emerging issues? Or can they only be used to determine
the emergence or dissolving of
• "proposed" emerging issues? In your experience, what are the
procedures to get the useful signals?
• (can you give of examples on how you have done it or would like to do
it based on your experience‐ with
• examples of (proposed) new emerging issues and weak signals)

12. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Questions Workshop
• Deeper analysis
• 4. If a proposed new emerging issues or a weak signals is detected,
further analysis is usually needed (for
• instance on the factual or evidence basis or its source) . What should
the further analysis of potential emerging
• issues contain for which reason? What are the methods you use in
regard to further analysis (tracing back on
• internet, expert consultation, use of specific databases …)?

13. Project funded under the Socio-
economic Sciences and Humanities
Questions Workshop
• Role of automation and textmining
• 5. What could be the role of automatic processes in the
Horizonscanning procedures? How are you using
• automatic processes within scanning and what kind of support do you
want from automatic processes?
• (please write down your experience with this and sketch what do you
expect for the future and what are the