3. Future designs
• VISION (desired future; „mission“ a means to approach the vision)
• TREND (forseeable developments, extrapolated from present situation;
expert knowledge)
• FORECAST / PROGNOSIS (quantifies time and degree of use of trends;
expert knowledge)
• SCENARIOS (comprehensive approach, covers multiple trends and
their mutual interaction, allows for the emergence of several possible
futures
– STRATEGIC SCENARIOS (operational preparation for the future, quantified
options)
– COMMUNICATION SCENARIOS (intended for public discussion, qualitative
aspects of alternative future designs)
9. Strategic Management @ 2014
Futures
Long-term notions
of the good society
Unrealized but realisitic
possibilities of problem
solutions
Likely temporal
development
of societal problems
Possible futures
Desirable futures
Probable futures
32. Opportunities and threats can be found by analysing the
changes in the operating environment
Trend analysis
One or several dominating development
process analysed
Scenario analysis
Several alternatives described and analysed
Weak signal analysis
Uncertain but potentially high impact
33. Strategic Management @ 2014
Types of Scenarios
• Deductive ←→ Inductive
• organizing the big uncertainties or questions about the future into a logical form vs. taking into
consideration all data and ideas about the future,then insights about the future are induced from this
study of the data.
• Exploratory ←→ Anticipatory
• Present → Future. The current situation and then describe the steps that lead to a future situation vs.
Present ← Future Start with a prescribed vision of the future (either optimistic, pessimistic, or neutral)
and then work backwards in time to visualize how this future could emerge.
• Qualitative ←→ Quantitative
• visual symbols: diagrams; pictures or words: written phrases, outlines; or storylines vs.
Numerical information ,Commonly computed with models
•
34. Strategic Management @ 2014
Scenario Planning – Types
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Inductive
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Deductive
Official
Future
Alternative scenario
Incremental
Vision
Normative
Adapted from Ged Davis, Scenarios as a tool for the 21st century, Shell International, 2002
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Ged Davis is Managing
Director, Head of the Centre
for Strategic Insight at the
World Economic Forum.
40. Strategic Management @ 2014
Euroelectric Power choices –scenario 2050
Total consumption of energy will decrease...
Paradigm shift to efficient electric technologies
More electricity = less energy
