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TDW-Live
Congresbury, Bristol - 15 Nov 2018
Simulation Based
Acquisition
-
Past or Future?
Andy Fawkes
• What is Simulation?
• What is/was
Simulation Based
Acquisition?
• Historical Context
• Past or Present?
Overview
Who am ...
• A Simulation is an imitation of the operation of a real-
world process or system
• A Simulation requires a Model
– The m...
• Humans Inside or Outside
• Runs in Real or Non-Real Time
• Some Systems have Order
• Some Systems are Chaotic
• Some are...
SimulatedReal
Live
Virtual Constructive
Simulated
People
Equipment
SimulatedReal
Simulation
Categories
(LVC)
Additional Realities
The real
world
Reality
Augmented
Reality
Mixed
Reality
Virtual
Reality
Information
layered over
visio...
Michel Jarraud, World Meteorological Organization 2014
"Thanks to major
investments in research
and observations, today’s
...
What is Real?
Project CARS
Simulation Now - Land, Sea, Air, Anywhere
Military Access to Simulation
1990 2000
Numbers
10’s
100’s
1,000’s
2010 2020
Live & Simulation Based Training
Training Type
X Y Z
Trend
Simulation
Live
Why Simulation?
Unity Games Engine
Machine Learning Agents
AI Training
What is/was Simulation Based Acquisition?
“an acquisition process in which DoD
and industry are enabled by robust,
collaborative use of simulation
technology that i...
Synthetic Environment Based Acquisition
“The consistent and coherent application
of modelling, simulation and SE technolog...
Why Then?
Faster
Cheaper
Better
Modelling &
Simulation
Technology
1990s - Popular Consciousness
1995 – Toy Story Film 1998 – Half-Life Video Game
SBA Concepts
• A common set of reference data
called a Digital Product Definition
(DPD)
– Data which accurately and completely
describe...
M&S Supporting the Systems Engineering Life Cycle
Enhancing Systems Engineering Agility with Modeling and Simulation, 2010...
Through the DPD, SBA would enable sharing across:
• Manufacturing Simulation Software
• Manufacturing Facility Simulation ...
Effective Use of Synthetic Environments to Support the Acquisition Life Cycle (2003)
Peter Jackson, Thales Training & Simu...
SBA Integrating Military Capability (UK)
C A D M I D
C A D M I D
C A D M I D
C A D M I D
Training
Personnel
Organisation
C...
Temporal Context - The UK “SeBA Wheel”
Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002
Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve...
• Within Projects
• Across Projects
• Over Time
SBA – It’s all about Sharing
SBA Linking Communities
Simulation Based Acquisition: A New Approach, 1998
Military Research Fellows DSMC
Confused by SBA?
SBA had a
Number of
Different
Messages
Pixabay
Historical Context
UK Vanguard Class SSBN – A “Perspex Twin”
1980s - 1/5th Scale Perspex Model Supported the Design & Build and Later, Refits
General Muellner, JSF Program Manager, sought
to use an unprecedented level of M&S to:
– Facilitate fully developed & vali...
“an acquisition process in which DoD
and industry are enabled by robust,
collaborative use of simulation
technology that i...
1998 - SBA Challenges Recognised by DoD
Simulation Based Acquisition: A New Approach
Report of the Military Research Fello...
UK MoD/Industry SeBA Collaboration
Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002
Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gal...
Lockheed Martin had “achieved a 50 plus
percent reduction in acquisition cycle time and
cost via M&S, and the savings have...
2002 - JSF
Digital
Product
Data
JSF Digital Product Data - Jim Hollenbach, Simulation Strategies, Inc.
JSF Modeling Inform...
• In 2003, SBA was eradicated from
DoD terminology by removing
“SBA” from all DoD 5000-series
publications, thus vanishing...
What Went
Wrong?
v
DoD SBA
Challenges
SBA Challenges comment
1 Interoperability of M&S Tools Cross-DomainWeaknesses
2 Data...
• Confusing Multiple Messages
• Confusion with Other Procurement Change Initiatives
• General Lack of Knowledge about the ...
Though SBA Lived On…
“MoD will work in collaboration with
industry, using existing fora such as the
Synthetic Environments...
“Digital Thread” &
“Digital Twin”
UK Ajax
(Bohemia
Interactive
Simulations)
Doctrine & Equipment Analysis
Analysis
&presentation
or
Prepare the scenarios used
for the analysis
Modify the parameters ...
Industry 4.0
Industry 4.0
Features
Boston Consulting Group
The Price of Data
F-35 (2018)
RAeS Article (April 2018)
The nature of warfare
• War is chaotic
• No battle plan
withstands
contact with
the enemy
• “All but war is
simulation”
Pre-1697
Black Swan
Post-1697
The challenge of modelling and simulating a
world with unknown unknowns
SBA – Past or Future?
Yes Maybe No
• Technology
• Incentives
SBA – A Future?
• People & Culture
• Data Sharing/Security
• Other Initiatives
Messages
• Simulation Touches all Aspects of Acquisition, Operation and
Support
• The engineering simulation and training ...
Georg Wilhelm Friedrich
Hegel (1770-1831)
“we learn from
history that we do
not learn from
history”
What is your Approach to Enterprise Data?
Marron Cheshire Restoration
Data Trends?
Connected - Compatible - Accessible
50% of Companies see lack of
Digital Culture and Training
as a top challenge to making
operations more digital
PwC - Indus...
Simulation Based Acquisition - Past or Future?
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Simulation Based Acquisition - Past or Future?

Presented at TDW-Live - Congresbury, Bristol - 15 Nov 2018. TDW-Live is a conference for aerospace, defence and space technical information and product support professionals. This presentation described simulation and the latest developments. It covered the history of simulation based acquisition and parallels with the current day digital twin or digital sibling and lessons learned.

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Simulation Based Acquisition - Past or Future?

  1. 1. TDW-Live Congresbury, Bristol - 15 Nov 2018 Simulation Based Acquisition - Past or Future? Andy Fawkes
  2. 2. • What is Simulation? • What is/was Simulation Based Acquisition? • Historical Context • Past or Present? Overview Who am I? • Engineer FIMechE MRAeS • 10 years submarine research, education & procurement • 20 years modelling and simulation, MoD and industry • Consultant for Bohemia Interactive Simulations and Ocean Software
  3. 3. • A Simulation is an imitation of the operation of a real- world process or system • A Simulation requires a Model – The model represents the key characteristics, behaviours and functions of the system/process – The simulation represents the operation of the model over time • Modelling & Simulation (M&S) an embracing term What is Simulation?
  4. 4. • Humans Inside or Outside • Runs in Real or Non-Real Time • Some Systems have Order • Some Systems are Chaotic • Some are Random What is Simulation?
  5. 5. SimulatedReal Live Virtual Constructive Simulated People Equipment SimulatedReal Simulation Categories (LVC)
  6. 6. Additional Realities The real world Reality Augmented Reality Mixed Reality Virtual Reality Information layered over vision Blend of real & digital information to enhance reality Fully virtual world
  7. 7. Michel Jarraud, World Meteorological Organization 2014 "Thanks to major investments in research and observations, today’s five-day forecast is as reliable as the two-day forecast of 20 years ago”
  8. 8. What is Real? Project CARS
  9. 9. Simulation Now - Land, Sea, Air, Anywhere
  10. 10. Military Access to Simulation 1990 2000 Numbers 10’s 100’s 1,000’s 2010 2020
  11. 11. Live & Simulation Based Training Training Type X Y Z Trend Simulation Live
  12. 12. Why Simulation?
  13. 13. Unity Games Engine Machine Learning Agents AI Training
  14. 14. What is/was Simulation Based Acquisition?
  15. 15. “an acquisition process in which DoD and industry are enabled by robust, collaborative use of simulation technology that is integrated across acquisition phases and programs.” US DoD Acquisition Council (1997) The SBA Vision An Architecture for Simulation Based Acquisition, 2000 John F. Keane, Robert R. Lutz, Stephen E. Myers, and James E. Coolahan
  16. 16. Synthetic Environment Based Acquisition “The consistent and coherent application of modelling, simulation and SE technology within, and across, both acquisition phases and programmes to facilitate the attainment of the Smart Acquisition goals of faster, cheaper, better” UK MoD 1990s SeBA? Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002 Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gale Dstl
  17. 17. Why Then? Faster Cheaper Better Modelling & Simulation Technology
  18. 18. 1990s - Popular Consciousness 1995 – Toy Story Film 1998 – Half-Life Video Game
  19. 19. SBA Concepts
  20. 20. • A common set of reference data called a Digital Product Definition (DPD) – Data which accurately and completely described the proposed system, its operational context, design, and program data (cost, schedule, and logistics) – Accessible through life to all parties involved in the acquisition process in Government & Industry Central SBA Technical Concept Whatever happened to Simulation Based Acquisition? Dr. David C. Gross; Mr. William V. Tucker; Mr. Steven E. Cameron
  21. 21. M&S Supporting the Systems Engineering Life Cycle Enhancing Systems Engineering Agility with Modeling and Simulation, 2010 Timothy M. Frey and Matthew C. Valencia
  22. 22. Through the DPD, SBA would enable sharing across: • Manufacturing Simulation Software • Manufacturing Facility Simulation Software • Weapon System Software • Training System Software • Cost Analysis Software • Mission Support Software: – Mission Intelligence – Mission Planning software – Mission Rehearsal – Mission Execution – Mission Debrief SBA - Sharing Models and Data Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division 2012
  23. 23. Effective Use of Synthetic Environments to Support the Acquisition Life Cycle (2003) Peter Jackson, Thales Training & Simulation Ltd. UK “The Potential SE Space”
  24. 24. SBA Integrating Military Capability (UK) C A D M I D C A D M I D C A D M I D C A D M I D Training Personnel Organisation Concepts & Doctrine Information EquipmentLinesofDevelopment Infrastructure Logistics Interoperability C - Concept A - Assessment D - Demonstration M - Manufacture I - In-service D - Disposal
  25. 25. Temporal Context - The UK “SeBA Wheel” Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002 Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gale Dstl
  26. 26. • Within Projects • Across Projects • Over Time SBA – It’s all about Sharing
  27. 27. SBA Linking Communities Simulation Based Acquisition: A New Approach, 1998 Military Research Fellows DSMC
  28. 28. Confused by SBA?
  29. 29. SBA had a Number of Different Messages Pixabay
  30. 30. Historical Context
  31. 31. UK Vanguard Class SSBN – A “Perspex Twin” 1980s - 1/5th Scale Perspex Model Supported the Design & Build and Later, Refits
  32. 32. General Muellner, JSF Program Manager, sought to use an unprecedented level of M&S to: – Facilitate fully developed & validated operational requirements – Conduct trade-off analyses of critical user defined performance parameters – Integrate team of users & developers – Evolve requirements over time – Reduce future strike systems development, procurement, & support costs 1994 - Joint Strike Fighter (F-35) Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002 Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gale Dstl
  33. 33. “an acquisition process in which DoD and industry are enabled by robust, collaborative use of simulation technology that is integrated across acquisition phases and programs.” The SBA Vision 1997 - US DoD Acquisition Council An Architecture for Simulation Based Acquisition, 2000 John F. Keane, Robert R. Lutz, Stephen E. Myers, and James E. Coolahan
  34. 34. 1998 - SBA Challenges Recognised by DoD Simulation Based Acquisition: A New Approach Report of the Military Research Fellows DSMC 1997-1998 Technical Cultural Managerial • Interoperability of M&S Tools • Data Description Availability • Security/Sensitivity of Data • Physics-based M&S • Hardware/Software Limitations • Variable Resolution • Acquisition Processes • Incentives for M&S Use • M&S Workforce • Acceptance of M&S • OSD and Service Guidance • Ownership of Data • VV&A Requirements • Funding Process • Use of System Models
  35. 35. UK MoD/Industry SeBA Collaboration Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002 Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gale Dstl • National Capability Demonstrators (NCDs) – FlasHLAmp (1996-98) – ADSE (1997-98) – Project Vitesse (1996-99) – SeBA (99-02) • FOAS (1999-00) • NIREUS (1998-03) • EUCLID 11.13 (2000-03 ) • NMSG-003 - Feasibility Study on M&S Technology in Support of SBA (2003)
  36. 36. Lockheed Martin had “achieved a 50 plus percent reduction in acquisition cycle time and cost via M&S, and the savings have been incorporated into our proposal bid” Mr. Frank CAPPUCCIO Vice President JSF, Lockheed Martin Corporation National Defence Industries Association SBA Conference June 2001 SBA was listed as one of the significant contributors to the saving of one flying prototype 2001 - Joint Strike Fighter Simulation Based Acquisition: The Ground Truth, 2002 Lt Cdr Monty Long RN, Mr Steve Gale Dstl
  37. 37. 2002 - JSF Digital Product Data JSF Digital Product Data - Jim Hollenbach, Simulation Strategies, Inc. JSF Modeling Information Sources Action Team - 25 June 2002
  38. 38. • In 2003, SBA was eradicated from DoD terminology by removing “SBA” from all DoD 5000-series publications, thus vanishing as a distinct DoD initiative • “The acquisition community appeared to conclude that SBA was over-sold, over-complicated, and misunderstood” 2003 - SBA In Trouble? Whatever happened to Simulation Based Acquisition? (2007) Dr. David C. Gross; Mr. William V. Tucker; Mr. Steven E. Cameron
  39. 39. What Went Wrong? v DoD SBA Challenges SBA Challenges comment 1 Interoperability of M&S Tools Cross-DomainWeaknesses 2 Data Description Availability Stovepipe Projects 3 Security/Sensitivity of Data IPR & Security Challenges 4 Physics-based M&S 5 Hardware/Software Limitations 6 Variable Resolution “Fair Fight” Issues 7 Acquisition Processes Many other Initiatives 8 Incentives for M&S Use Spend to Save Challenge 9 M&S Workforce M&S not Mainstream Skill 10 Acceptance of M&S Act of Faith? 11 OSD and Service Guidance Guidance but is it Followed? 12 Ownership of Data IPR & Security Challenges 13 VV&A Requirements Guidance Generated but Followed? 14 Funding Process Stovepipe Funding 15 Use of System Models Some Progress
  40. 40. • Confusing Multiple Messages • Confusion with Other Procurement Change Initiatives • General Lack of Knowledge about the Use of M&S • Gulf between “M&S Enthusiasts” & Mainstream Procurement • Weak connections with Training and Simulation Community • Organisational & Funding Stovepipes • Lack of Clear Incentives My Own Experience
  41. 41. Though SBA Lived On… “MoD will work in collaboration with industry, using existing fora such as the Synthetic Environments Tower of Excellence and initiatives including the Integrated Modelling and Simulation Support for Acquisition (IMSSA) project, to develop a joined-up defence wide modelling and simulation capability” UK Defence Technology Strategy (2006) Naval Air Warfare Center Existing Online SBA Guidance
  42. 42. “Digital Thread” & “Digital Twin”
  43. 43. UK Ajax (Bohemia Interactive Simulations)
  44. 44. Doctrine & Equipment Analysis Analysis &presentation or Prepare the scenarios used for the analysis Modify the parameters of the analysis Play the scenario Use a monte-carlo batch Simulation Shadow gaming Preparation Authoring
  45. 45. Industry 4.0 Industry 4.0 Features Boston Consulting Group
  46. 46. The Price of Data
  47. 47. F-35 (2018) RAeS Article (April 2018)
  48. 48. The nature of warfare • War is chaotic • No battle plan withstands contact with the enemy • “All but war is simulation”
  49. 49. Pre-1697 Black Swan Post-1697 The challenge of modelling and simulating a world with unknown unknowns
  50. 50. SBA – Past or Future?
  51. 51. Yes Maybe No
  52. 52. • Technology • Incentives SBA – A Future? • People & Culture • Data Sharing/Security • Other Initiatives
  53. 53. Messages • Simulation Touches all Aspects of Acquisition, Operation and Support • The engineering simulation and training simulation communities need to work together closely • Simulation Technology is Constantly Developing • Simulation Closely Linked to Data • “Digital Sibling” is a more appropriate term than “Digital Twin” – the real world cannot always be 100% predicted • Translate Initiatives for Non-Experts – Keep it Simple!
  54. 54. Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel (1770-1831) “we learn from history that we do not learn from history”
  55. 55. What is your Approach to Enterprise Data? Marron Cheshire Restoration
  56. 56. Data Trends? Connected - Compatible - Accessible
  57. 57. 50% of Companies see lack of Digital Culture and Training as a top challenge to making operations more digital PwC - Industry 4.0: Building the Digital Enterprise Survey (2016) “The biggest challenge of industrial leaders isn’t technology - it is the people”

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