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Brent Paterson - Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development
1. WATER SUPPLY
WATER MANAGEMENT
WATER QUALITY
WATER and FOOD PRODUCTION
- Challenges for the Future -
Presentation to the Canadian Water Summit
June 28, 2012
Calgary, Alberta
Brent Paterson, P. Ag.
Executive Director
Irrigation and Farm Water Division
Alberta Agriculture and Rural Development
2. Future World Food Requirements
World food requirements
are expected to double in
the next 40 years.
3. Future World Food Requirements
World Population Growth Per Capita Food Consumption
Shift Towards More Animal Protein
4. World Food Production
The long-term ability to feed the
world’s growing population will
increasingly depend on:
An ever-shrinking land base; and
Increased competition for limited water
supplies.
5. Food and Politics
Sharp increases in food prices due to world
shortages.
July to September, 2010 wheat prices rose by
60-80%.
The “Arab Spring” uprisings were linked to
discontent over food prices.
Food demand is expected to increase
dramatically.
6. Undernourished People in the World
1100
People (millions)
1000
900
800
700
69-71 79-81 90-92 95-97 00-02 05-07 08 09 10
Years
FAO – World Food and Agriculture in Review 2010
7. Undernourished People in 2010 (millions)
37 19
53 Asia and Pacific
239 Sub-Saharan Africa
578
Latin America and
Caribbean
Near East and North
Africa
Developed Regions
Total: 925 million
8. Food Production
About 60% of the world’s food is produced on rainfed
agricultural lands.
Significant production increases on rainfed land is not
expected.
9. Irrigated Food Production
Irrigation makes up only 17% of the world’s
agriculture land base.
However, it produces about 40% of the world’s
food.
Up to 80% of future food requirements will
need to be met by irrigation.
10. Irrigation Advantages
Significantly increased production
compared to rainfed agriculture.
More reliable production – less risk of
crop failure.
Increased diversification and value-
added processing.
11.
12. Increasing Productivity
California
Pakistan
Wheat Yield = 6 t/ha
Water Productivity =
Wheat Yield = 2 t/ha
1.3 kg/m3
Water Productivity =
0.5 kg/m3
If developing countries improve their
irrigation efficiency and crop yields,
irrigation expansion would not be required.
Molden et al: Dialogue Working Paper 1, 2001
13. Sub-Saharan Africa has considerable potential
to develop water storage and irrigation systems
that will significantly increase food production.
Increased international
support is required for
the development and
management of water in
developing countries.
14. Projected Water Scarcity in 2025
Many countries will be forced to
abandon their policy of food self-
sufficiency because of water
shortages.
Physical water scarcity
Economic water scarcity
Little or no water scarcity
Seckler et al, 2002
16. Alberta’s Potential
Large agricultural land base;
20 million ha.
Relatively small population;
3.5 million
Strong dryland agriculture;
and
World-class irrigation system.
Agricultural Land
Irrigation
17. Current Irrigation
in Alberta
Irrigation Districts
• 560,000 ha
Private Irrigation
• 120,000 ha
22. Irrigation Conveyance Systems
Open Channels Conveyance Works
>8000 km
• 54% Open channel
• 46% Buried pipeline
Buried Pipelines
23. On-Farm Irrigation Efficiency
1965 34% World average
is about 43%
1980 58%
1990 60%
1995 65%
2010 74%
Future 90+%
Woods – 2010; Harms – 2012 (ARD)
24. Climate Change
The agricultural industry has always
adapted to changing climatic conditions
on the prairies.
However, accelerated changes in our
climate will require faster adaptation
than ever before.
We are working with the agricultural
industry to assess adaptation strategies.
