Confirmation Bias

1. Next Speaker:
Michael
aagaard (dk)
Confirmation Bias
Next Speaker:

2. Your Brain is Lying to You!
Become a Better Marketer by
Overcoming Confirmation Bias
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5. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

6. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

7. #CH2018

8. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

9. INFORMATION
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10. CONFIRMATION
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11. CONFIRMATION bias
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12. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
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13. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

14. Dismiss information we don’t agree with -
unless the evidence is overwhelming
Accept evidence we agree with at face value
search for & recall information in ways that confirm
our existing beliefs, hypotheses & expectations
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15. What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
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16. What the human being is best at
doing, is interpreting all new
information so that their prior
conclusions remain intact.
- Warren Buffet
“
”
#CH2018

22. limits our capacity
for objective analysis
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23. Serious threat to any discipline
that seeks to uncover the truth
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24. 2 Confirmation
Bias
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25. how to overcome
confirmation bias
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26. torturing data
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27. If you torture the data long enough,
it will confess to anything.
- Ronald Coase -
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28. 93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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29. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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30. Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Number of people who died by becoming tangled in their bedsheets
Correlates With
93%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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31. People Who Died By Falling Down the Stairs
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
95%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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32. Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water.
Per Capita Consumption of Mozzarella Cheese
Correlates With
90%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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33. Per Capita Consumption of Swiss Cheese
Number of people who died by drowning while in natural water
Correlates With
40%Correlation
http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
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34. CORRELATION
DOES NOT EQUAL
CAUSATION
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35. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
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36. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

37. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

38. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

39. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

40. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
@CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

41. Device Users Conversions Conversion Rate
All 139,254 4,099 2.94%
Mobile 132,420 3,745 2.83%
Tablet 3,457 122 3.53%
Desktop 3,377 223 6.60%
IMPORTANT CAMPAIGN
Only 2.43% of traffic…
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42. Step 1: Read the research.
Step 2: Get new insight.
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43. THE
CONFIRMATION
BIAS CYCLE
X
X
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44. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
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45. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
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46. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

47. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

48. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

49. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

50. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

51. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

52. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

53. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

54. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

55. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

56. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
@CONTENTVERVE

57. http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.
1. Read the research.
Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
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58. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

59. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

60. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018
https://abtestguide.com/

61. can you torture
qualitative data?
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62. wouldn’t you agree that
this is a useful feature?
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63. can you tell us why
you love our product?
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64. using
marketer’s logic
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65. myside bias
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73. @CONTENTVERVE

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78. @CONTENTVERVE

79. @CONTENTVERVE

80. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?

81. What do you think this page was about? Did the landing page seem trustworthy?
88% 80%

82. which university landing page is most credible?
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83. which university landing page is most credible?
36% 64%
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84. I’M RIGHT
&
YOU’RE WRONG
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85. I’M SMART
&
YOU’RE STUPID
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86. how to overcome
confirmation bias
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87. step 1
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88. you could be wrong
accept the fact that
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89. The road to wisdom? — Well,
it's plain and simple to express:
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90. Err
and err
and err again
but less
and less
and less.
Piet Hein
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91. step 2
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92. Seek out a
different perspective
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93. customer success
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94. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

95. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

96. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

97. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

98. nope…
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99. will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
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100. will i be billed during the trial?
Can i cancel during my trial?
can i change plans?
nope! you will only be billed after your 30-day trial if you choose not
to cancel. we’ll send an e-mail reminder near the end of the trial.
certainly! you can cancel at any time, just go to your account
dashboard and click “manage account”.
of course! you can change plans or switch between monthly/annual
billing via your account dashboard.
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101. #CH2018

102. @CONTENTVERVE#CH2018

103. A: Bullets based on marketer’s logic
B: Bullets based on customer insight
11% increase in sign ups
✓ 2 full business cycles
✓ 867 account signups
✓ 95% significance level
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104. challenge
your beliefs
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105. step 3
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106. break
the confirmation
Bias cycle
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107. 1. Read the research.
http://davidwees.com/content/confirmation-bias-cycle/
2. Keep my worldview.Ignore any flaws in the research.
No
Do I agree with the findings of the
research?
Yes
Find a reason the research is flawed.
Ignore the research.
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108. the power of habit - charles duhigg
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109. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
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110. the habit loop
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111. CUE the habit loop
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112. ROUTINE
CUE the habit loop
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113. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
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114. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE the habit loop
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115. ROUTINE
REWARDCUE
Reenforcement
of the habit
The action triggered
by the cue
The trigger that
sets off the habit
the habit loop
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116. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
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117. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
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118. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
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119. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
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120. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
RED BULL
the habit loop
1
2
3
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121. FEEL AWAKEFEEL TIRED
GREEN TEA
the habit loop
1
2
3
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122. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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123. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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124. REJECT
INFO
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I DON’T
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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125. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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126. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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127. ACCEPT INFO
AT FACE VALUE
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop
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128. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
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129. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
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130. I COULD BE WRONG/
DO RESEARCH
MAINTAIN
WORLDVIEW
INFO I
AGREE WITH the habit loop NEW INSIGHT
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132. accept the fact that you could be wrong
er, and er and er again - but less and less and less
seek out a different perspective & challenge your beliefs
break the confirmation bias cycle
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133. i suffer from confirmation bias -
no one can convince me otherwise…
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134. thank you!!!
Feel free to reach out
aagaardviking@gmail.com
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