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2022969714          P.1
Jun   13 02   l1:32a         Marshall   Institute

                                                     WHOUi


                          George CQ Marshall
                          INSTITUTE
                                      FAX COVER SHEET




              T o:- --- ---- ---- -

               Fax:.

               From:

               Date:


               Number of pages INCLUDING this cover sheet:   _______




               Additional Messages:




                  1730 K Street, N.W., Suite 905 Washington, DC 20006-3868
                      Telephone (202) 296-9655 * Facsimile (202) 296-9714
                    Email jnfo~marshall.org * Website www.marshal~org
2022969714                       P. 2
Jun     13 02       11:33a           Marshall           Institute




George C.Marshall
I N STIT UT E                                                                                  June 12, 2002
                                     Mr. Andrew Card
      Board of Directors             White House Chief of Staff
                    Chairman         The White House
             Robert Jastrow          1600 Pennsylvania Avenue
       Mount Wilson Institute        Washington, D.C.
         chairman Emeritus
              Frederick Seitz
        Rockefeller UnOeri'          Dear Andy.
                    President
                                             Iawiigaottercnlrlasdnational                     assessment, which
            William O'Keefe
                 Bouinsc
                   Co   esutn        seemis completely inconsistent with the President's policy fill ofexpressed
                                                                                                  and
                                                                                                        feedback
                 oCAmeons
                    ce
                 Bnvrsi               iw    o hsbet           I suspect that you have bad your
                   at Berkeley       about the report. It is not my intent      to pile on with more criticism.
             Sallie Ballunas         Instead, I want to offer some observations that you might find useful.
        Harvard-smithsonian
                                                                                               ens ehnglk
       Centerfor AstrophysicsAlhuhteeaeawymayepaain                                                            ehngik
        Thomas L. Clancy, Jr.Alhuhteeaeawymayepaainwens
                           Author    this happens, I would like to believe that it was primarily a case of a
                 Will Happer         bureaucracy run amok and a review process that got short shrift because
         Princeton UntversidJ        people were stretched thin and focused on other priorities. However,
          Willis M. Hawkins          recent Statemhents by Mr. Fleischer have added to the confusion and raise
                Lockeed(rt.)
                   artn              the question of whether policy is still being driven by the best available
       Charles Krautharmner
        Syndicated Columnist         science.
               John H. Moore
            Grove CIOy College               The EPA report and his comments do not reflect the actual state of
                                                                                                           report
                                     climate science. Mr. Fleischer's quotes from the National Academy of that
           Robert L. Sproull
 University of Rochester (ret.)      were unfortunate   because they do not reflect the actual substance
             Chauncey Starr          report. Indeed, the two sentences that he cited from the Executive
                Electric Power
            Research Institute       Summary are contradictory.       Last December, the Marshall Institute
                                     released a report that addressed the current state of knowledge and the
                                                                                                        Panel on
                                     deficiencies in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental produced
                  Diector
              Executve
         Exectivew Directord         Climate Change. Jim Schlesinger co-chaired the work group that
                    Crafordthat
                   Matthw                 report. Although I sent you a copy at the time, I am including another
                                     copy because it may prove helpful in dealing with the current situatioft
                             email
            info~nmarshall.otg               I do not intend to go into detail about the findings in the Marshal
                      website        report but simply want to make two observations about the science. First,
             wwwmrarshall~org        according to the prevailing theory about human induced global warming,
                                     increased greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere, such as CO 2 produced by
                                     human activities, trap heat from the earth's surface, which then warms the
                                     atmosphere, Which then in turn warnms the earth's surfaice. For this theory
                                     to be an explanation of recent warming, the lower atmosphere would have
                                     to show a clear warming trend. It has not. Satellite data since 1979, and
                                      weather balloon data prior to that, do not show a warming trend in the
                                      atmosphere. Without a wanner atmosphere to radiate heat back to earth,
                                      there cannot be a significant human impact on surface temperatures.


                                                1730 It Street, NW, Suite 905       Washington, DC 20006-3868
                                                  Telephone (202) 296-9655      *   Facsimile (202) 296-9714
2022969714                         p.3
Jun   13 02   ll:33a           Marshall       Institute




                                                                          thousand years do not
       Second, proxy data from ice cores going back more than one hundred
                                                                                    dioxide lead to an
       reveal a pattern that is consistent with the theory that increases in carbon
       increase in surface temperature.
                                                                                             to withstand
                The President's policy is scientifically sound but it needs public support
                                                                                              the public's
       both domestic and international pressure to rejoin the Kyoto club. Currently,
       priorities do not put environmental issues and especially climate    change in its top tier. That
                                                                                    and coordinating the
       could be a justification for not allocating more resources to managing
                                                                                  issue is the top priority
       climate issue. However, for environmental advocates and their alles, this
                                                                                   Admnmistration on the
       and, as you have seen, they will try to exploit any opportunity to put the
       defensive and to promote wrong-headed policy.
                                                                                           climate change,
                Since the public's priorities do not now support a rush to judgment about
                                                                                     and assessment, and
        the Administration has the tine for focused research, objective analysis
                                                                                       system and human
        most importantly, for promoting a better public understanding of the climate
                                                                                      better inter-agency
        influence on it. Clearly, accomplishing those objectives will require
                                                                                           and clarity in
        coordination, a strong commitment to clear and consistent objectives,
                                                                                   that was chaired by a
        communications. 'The Clinton Administration had a climate task force
                                                                                         was on the same
        senior person on the White House staff. As a result of that system, everyone
                                                                                      book.
        page, with the same message, even though they were reading from the wrong
                                                                                             a task force.
               I hope that you will urge the President to seriously consider recreating such
        As you know, I am prepared and willing to help any way that I can.

                                                                     Sincerely,



                                                                     William O'Keefe
                                                                     President

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CAR Email 06.13.02

  • 1. 2022969714 P.1 Jun 13 02 l1:32a Marshall Institute WHOUi George CQ Marshall INSTITUTE FAX COVER SHEET T o:- --- ---- ---- - Fax:. From: Date: Number of pages INCLUDING this cover sheet: _______ Additional Messages: 1730 K Street, N.W., Suite 905 Washington, DC 20006-3868 Telephone (202) 296-9655 * Facsimile (202) 296-9714 Email jnfo~marshall.org * Website www.marshal~org
  • 2. 2022969714 P. 2 Jun 13 02 11:33a Marshall Institute George C.Marshall I N STIT UT E June 12, 2002 Mr. Andrew Card Board of Directors White House Chief of Staff Chairman The White House Robert Jastrow 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Mount Wilson Institute Washington, D.C. chairman Emeritus Frederick Seitz Rockefeller UnOeri' Dear Andy. President Iawiigaottercnlrlasdnational assessment, which William O'Keefe Bouinsc Co esutn seemis completely inconsistent with the President's policy fill ofexpressed and feedback oCAmeons ce Bnvrsi iw o hsbet I suspect that you have bad your at Berkeley about the report. It is not my intent to pile on with more criticism. Sallie Ballunas Instead, I want to offer some observations that you might find useful. Harvard-smithsonian ens ehnglk Centerfor AstrophysicsAlhuhteeaeawymayepaain ehngik Thomas L. Clancy, Jr.Alhuhteeaeawymayepaainwens Author this happens, I would like to believe that it was primarily a case of a Will Happer bureaucracy run amok and a review process that got short shrift because Princeton UntversidJ people were stretched thin and focused on other priorities. However, Willis M. Hawkins recent Statemhents by Mr. Fleischer have added to the confusion and raise Lockeed(rt.) artn the question of whether policy is still being driven by the best available Charles Krautharmner Syndicated Columnist science. John H. Moore Grove CIOy College The EPA report and his comments do not reflect the actual state of report climate science. Mr. Fleischer's quotes from the National Academy of that Robert L. Sproull University of Rochester (ret.) were unfortunate because they do not reflect the actual substance Chauncey Starr report. Indeed, the two sentences that he cited from the Executive Electric Power Research Institute Summary are contradictory. Last December, the Marshall Institute released a report that addressed the current state of knowledge and the Panel on deficiencies in the most recent report of the Intergovernmental produced Diector Executve Exectivew Directord Climate Change. Jim Schlesinger co-chaired the work group that Crafordthat Matthw report. Although I sent you a copy at the time, I am including another copy because it may prove helpful in dealing with the current situatioft email info~nmarshall.otg I do not intend to go into detail about the findings in the Marshal website report but simply want to make two observations about the science. First, wwwmrarshall~org according to the prevailing theory about human induced global warming, increased greenhouse gases inthe atmosphere, such as CO 2 produced by human activities, trap heat from the earth's surface, which then warms the atmosphere, Which then in turn warnms the earth's surfaice. For this theory to be an explanation of recent warming, the lower atmosphere would have to show a clear warming trend. It has not. Satellite data since 1979, and weather balloon data prior to that, do not show a warming trend in the atmosphere. Without a wanner atmosphere to radiate heat back to earth, there cannot be a significant human impact on surface temperatures. 1730 It Street, NW, Suite 905 Washington, DC 20006-3868 Telephone (202) 296-9655 * Facsimile (202) 296-9714
  • 3. 2022969714 p.3 Jun 13 02 ll:33a Marshall Institute thousand years do not Second, proxy data from ice cores going back more than one hundred dioxide lead to an reveal a pattern that is consistent with the theory that increases in carbon increase in surface temperature. to withstand The President's policy is scientifically sound but it needs public support the public's both domestic and international pressure to rejoin the Kyoto club. Currently, priorities do not put environmental issues and especially climate change in its top tier. That and coordinating the could be a justification for not allocating more resources to managing issue is the top priority climate issue. However, for environmental advocates and their alles, this Admnmistration on the and, as you have seen, they will try to exploit any opportunity to put the defensive and to promote wrong-headed policy. climate change, Since the public's priorities do not now support a rush to judgment about and assessment, and the Administration has the tine for focused research, objective analysis system and human most importantly, for promoting a better public understanding of the climate better inter-agency influence on it. Clearly, accomplishing those objectives will require and clarity in coordination, a strong commitment to clear and consistent objectives, that was chaired by a communications. 'The Clinton Administration had a climate task force was on the same senior person on the White House staff. As a result of that system, everyone book. page, with the same message, even though they were reading from the wrong a task force. I hope that you will urge the President to seriously consider recreating such As you know, I am prepared and willing to help any way that I can. Sincerely, William O'Keefe President