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 Perhach, William                                                                                   __




  From:      Myron Ebell [mebell~cei .org]
  Sent:      Friday, June 24, 2005 5:47 PM
  To:        Myron Ebell
  Subject: Letters from Barton and Whitfield, Energy and Commerce Committee, to Pachauri, NSF, Mann,
           Bradley, and Hughes

Letters from Rep. Joe Barton, Chairman, House Energy and Commerce Committee, and Rep. Ed
Whitfield, Chairman, House Energy and Commerce Committee Subcommittee on Oversight and
Investigations to Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the UN IPCC, Dr. Arden Bennett, Chairman of
the National Science Foundation, and Mann, Bradley, and Hughes.

hlip ://enecrgycoQmm-er~ce-.h-ouse-. gov/ I 08/Le~tters/06232005 15 70.htm

June 23, 2005

Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri

Chairman

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

C/O IPCC Secretariat

World Meteorological Organization

7 bis Avenue de La Paix

C.P. 2300

Ch- 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland

Dear Chairman Pachauri:

Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal,

about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies by Dr. Michael Mann and

co-authors of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that these

studies of temperature proxies (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for anew finding in

the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment

Report (TAR). This finding     -   that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is

"likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was



 10/5/2005
Page 2 of 25


 the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year"          -   has since been referenced widely and has become

 a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy.

However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, Energy

& Environment, among others, researchers question the results of this work. As these

researchers find, based on the available information, the conclusions concerning temperature

histories   -   and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented        -   cannot be

supported by the Mann et. al. studies. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journal

and these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in

part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the

conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the

data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005

Energy & Environment, the information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not

been made fuilly available to researchers upon request.

Dr. Raj endra K. Pachauri

Page 2

The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally

funded research and of the IPCC review process      -       two matters of particular interest to the

Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IIPCC review has been sufficiently robust

and independent. We understand that Dr. Michael Mann, the lead author of the studies in question,

was also a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported this very same work, and that

two co-authors of the studies were also contributing authors to the same chapter. Given the

prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR, we seek to learn more about the facts

and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to

understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies.

In ligzht of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmnental issues



10/5/2005
Page 3 of 25

  in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Committee must have full and accurate information

  when considering matters relating to climate change policy. We open this review because the

  dispute surrounding these studies bears directly on important questions about the federally

  funded work upon which climate studies rely and the quality and transparency of analyses used

 to support the IPCC assessment process. With the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth

 assessment report, addressing questions of quality and transparency in the underlying analyses

 supporting that assessment, both scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress

 is eventually going to make policy decisions drawing from this work.

 To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of

 Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1,

 2005:

 1. Explain the IPCC process for preparing and writing its assessment reports, including, but

 not limited to: (a) how referenced studies are reviewed and assessed by the relevant

 Working Group; (b) the steps taken by lead authors, reviewers, and others to ensure the

data underlying the studies forming the basis for key findings   -   particularly proxy and
temperature data   -   are accurate and up to date; and (c) the IPCC requirements governing

the quality of data used in reports.

2. What specifically did IPCC do to check the quality of the Mann et. al. studies and

underlying data, cited in the TAR? Did IPCC seek to ensure the studies could be

replicated?

3. What is your position with regard to: (a) the recent challenges to the quality of the Mann

et. al. data, (b) related questions surrounding the sharing of methods and research for

others to test the validity of these studies, and (c) what this controversy indicates about

the data quality of key IPCC studies?

4. What did IPCC do to ensure the quality of data for other prominent historical temperature



10/5/2005
Page 4 of 25


or proxy studies cited in the IPCC, including the Folland et. al. and Jones et. al. studies

that were sources for the graphic accompanying the Mann et. al. graphic in the Summary

for Policy Makers? Are the data and methodologies for such works complete and

available for other researchers to test and replicate?

Dr. Raj endra K. Pachauri

Page 3

5. Explain (a) the facts and circumstances by which Dr. Michael Mann served as a lead

author of the very chapter that prominently featured his work and (b) by which his work

became a finding and graphical feature of the TAR Summary for Policymnakers.

6. Explain (a) how IPCC ensures objectivity and independence among section contributors

and reviewers, (b) how they are chosen, and (c) how the chapters, summaries, and the full

report are approved and what any such approval signifies about the quality and

acceptance of particular research therein.

7. Identify the people who wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of

the TAR, particularly Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?" and explain all

their roles in the preparation of the TAR, including, but not limited to, the specific roles

in the writing and review process.

8. Given the questions about Mann et. al. data, has the Working Group I or the IPCC made

any changes to specific procedures or policies, including policies for checking the quality

of data, for the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report? If so, explain in detail any such

changes, and why they were made.

9. Does the IPCC or Working Group I have policies or procedures regarding the disclosure

and dissemination of scientific data referenced in the reports? If so, explain in detail any

such policies and what happens when they are violated.

Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of



10/5/2005
Page 5 of 25

  the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424.

  Sincerely,

  Joe Barton Ed Whitfield

  Chairman Chairman

  Subcommittee on Oversight

  and Investigations

 cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member

 The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member,

 Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations




 June 23, 2005

 Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr.

Director

National Science Foundation

4201 Wilson Blvd.

Arlington, Virginia 22230

Dear Dr. Bement:

Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The
                                                                            Wall Street Journal,
about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies
                                                                          by Dr. Michael Mann and
co-authors of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We
                                                                           understand that these
studies of temperature proxies (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the
                                                                                basis for a new finding in
the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
                                                                          Third Assessment
Report (TAR). This finding   -   that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is



10/5/2005
Page 6 of 25

    "likely to have been the largest of any century during
                                                           the past 1,000 years" and that the "I 990s was
   the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has
                                                            since been referenced widely and has become
   a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding
                                                        climate change policy.
   However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science,
                                                         Geophysical Research Letters, Energy
   & Environment, among others, researchers question
                                                          the results of this work. As these
   researchers find, based on the available informnation,
                                                           the conclusions concerning temperature
   histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century
                                                                  is actually unprecedented - cannot be
   supported by the Mann et. al. studies. Jn addition, we
                                                            understand from the February 14 Journal
  and these other reports that researchers have failed to
                                                            replicate the findings of these studies, in
  part because of problems with the underlying data and
                                                             the calculations used to reach the
  conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning
                                                               the sharing and dissemination of the
  data and methods used to perform the studies. For example,
                                                                    according to the January 2005
 Energy & Environment, the information necessary to
                                                          replicate the analyses in the studies has not
 been made fully available to researchers upon request.
                                                            According to the article, the authors'
 requests for National Science Foundation assistance
                                                        to obtain this information have been turned

 down.

 Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr.

 Page 2

 The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon
                                                      the quality and transparency of federally
 funded research and of the IPCC review process - two
                                                        matters of particular interest to the
 Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether
                                                           IPCC review has been sufficiently
independent. We understand that Dr. Michael Mann,
                                                      the lead author of the studies in question,
was also a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed
                                                          and reported this very same work, and that
two co-authors of the studies were also contributing
                                                     authors to the same chapter. Given the
prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC
                                                      TAR, we seek to learn more about the facts


10/5/2005
Page 7 of 25


and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to

understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies.

As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry,

providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as

the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of

claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we

also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of infornation developed or

disseminated with the support of your agency have been appropriately met.

In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues,

the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to

climate change policy. We open this review because the dispute surrounding these studies bears

directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely

and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment process. With

the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of

quality and transparency in the underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both scientific

and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy decisions

drawing from this work.

To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of

Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1,

2005:

1. Explain in detail your policies and procedures regarding the disclosure and dissemination

of scientific data obtained with federal funds and grants, including, but not limited to: (a)

a copy of all such applicable policies and internal guidance relating to implementation of

such policies, (b) the obligations of universities, individuals, and other funding recipients

regarding these policies, (c) the agency departments and individuals charged with



10/5/2005
Page 8 of 25

 ensuring such policies are implemented, and (d) the steps your agency takes to ensure

 these policies are implemented.

 2. List all grants and all other funding awards given for research in the area of climate or

 paleoclimate research, including, but not limited to, the dates of the awards, the identity

 of the recipients, principal investigators, and whoever is contractually obligated to ensure

provisions of the awards are met.

3. Explain how NSF ensures compliance with award provisions.

Dr. Arden L. B~ement, Jr.

Page 3

4. In the area of climate or paleoclimate research, are you aware of any violation of

requirements or obligations concerning the sharing and dissemination of data and

research, pursuant to applicable agency and federal policies? If so, describe each

violation.

5. Have you received any requests for access to the research or data in studies conducted by

Mann et. al., cited in the IPCC Third Assessment Report? If so, identify and provide all

records relating to such requests.

6. Describe in detail how your agency has supported or disseminated the information

developed in the Mann et. aL. studies.

7. Does your agency consider the IPCC review and writing process for the TAR to be

consistent with your agency's policies or guidelines relating to information or data

quality? Explain where the review and writing process is consistent or inconsistent in

this regard.

Please note that, for the purpose of responding to this request, the applicable time period is

1995 to present. The terms "records" and "relating" should be interpreted in accordance with the

attachment to this letter.



10/5/2005
Page 9 of 25

  Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter
                                                                                 Spencer of
  the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424.

  Sincerely,

  Joe Barton Ed Whitfield

  Chairman Chairman

  Subcommittee on Oversight

  and Investigations

 cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member

 The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member,

 Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations

 Attachment

 Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr.

 Page 4

 ATTACHMENT

 1. The term "records" is to be construed in the broadest sense and shall mean
                                                                               any written or
 graphic material, however produced or reproduced, of any kind or description,
                                                                               consisting of
the original and any non-identical copy (whether different from the original because
                                                                                     of notes
made on or attached to such copy or otherwise) and drafts and both sides thereof,
                                                                                  whether
printed or recorded electronically or magnetically or stored in any type of data
                                                                                 bank,
including, but not limited to, the following: correspondence, memoranda, records,
                                                                                  summaries
of personal conversations or interviews, minutes or records of meetings or conferences,

opinions or reports of consultants, projections, statistical statements, drafts, contracts,

agreements, purchase orders, invoices, confirmations, telegraphs, telexes, agendas,
                                                                                    books,
notes, pamphlets, periodicals, reports, studies, evaluations, opinions, logs, diaries,
                                                                                       desk
calendars, appointment books, tape recordings, video recordings, e-mails, voice
                                                                                mails,


10/5/2005
Page IO0of 25


 computer tapes, or other computer stored matter, magnetic tapes, microfilm, microfiche,

 punch cards, all other records kept by electronic, photographic, or mechanical means, charts,

 photographs, notebooks, drawings, plans, inter-office communications, intra-office and
 intradepartmental
 communications, transcripts, checks and canceled checks, bank statements,

 ledgers, books, records or statements of accounts, and papers and things similar to any of the

 foregoing, however denominated.

2. The terms "relating, ".
                         .relate," or "regarding" as to any given subject means anything that

constitutes, contains, embodies, identifies, deals with, or is in any manner whatsoever

pertinent to that subject, including but not limited to records concerning the preparation of

other records.



June 23, 2005

Dr. Michael Mann

Assistant Professor

Department of Environmental Sciences

University of Virginia

Charlottesville, VA 22904

Dear Dr. Mann:

Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street

Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in your studies of the

historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that these studies of

temperature proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for a new finding in

the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment

Report (TAR). This finding   -   that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is




10/5/2005
Page I11 of 25


"likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was

the warmest decade and 1998 the wannest year"      -   has since been referenced widely and has become

a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy.

However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy

& Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the

available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories      -   and hence whether

warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented     -   cannot be supported by the Mann et al.

studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other

reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of

problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions

have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to

perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such

information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to

researchers upon request.

The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally

funded research and of the IPCC review process     -   two matters of particular interest to the

Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IPCC review has been sufficiently

Dr. Michael Mann

Page 2

independent. We understand that you were a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and

reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributing authors to this

very same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR and your

position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led

 to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this

 controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies.



 10/5/2005
Page 12 of 25


                                                                        scientific inquiry,
As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open
                                                                             to replicate a study, as
providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability
                                                                        by which the reliability of
the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard
                                                                             these studies, we
claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding
                                                                              developed or
also seek to learn whether obligations concern-ing the sharing of information

disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met.
                                                                                      issues,
In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental
                                                                       matters relating to
the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering
                                                                            your studies bears
climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding
                                                                           climate studies rely
directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which
                                                                                  process. With
 and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment
                                                                              questions of
 the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing
                                                                            that assessment, both
 quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting
                                                                             going to make policy
 scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually

 decisions drawing from this work.
                                                                         the U.S. House of
 To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of
                                                                           on or before July 11,
 Representatives, please provide the following information requested below

 2005:
                                                                                relating to climate
 1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies
                                                                          of funding for
 change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source

 those studies.
                                                                                      but not
 2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including,
                                                                                       subgrants
  limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including

  or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria.
                                                                               which you
  3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under


   10/5/2005
Page 13 of 25


were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to

those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited to, any provisions,

adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating to the dissemination and

sharing of research results.

4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published study for which you

were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information contains all the

specific data you used and calculations your performed, including such supporting

documentation as computer source code, validation information, and other ancillary

Dr. Michael Mann

Page 3

information, necessary for full evaluation and application of the data, particularly for

another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this information was available to

researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location of this information; (d)

what modifications, if any, you have made to this information since publication of the

respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully available, provide a detailed

narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire the necessary information

to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy data you used.

5. According to The Wall Street Journal,you have declined to release the exact computer

code you used to generate your-results. (a) Is this correct? (b) What policy on sharing

research and methods do you follow? (c) What is the source of that policy? (d) Provide

this exact computer code used to generate your results.

6. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly archived, what requests

have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the climate change studies, what

was your response, and why?

7. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005)



 10/5/2005
Page 14 of 25


report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998. Provide a detailed

narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these may affect the underlying

conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers to the following questions:

a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series referenced in the

article and, if so, what was the result?

b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the

referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results?

c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly

for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?

d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820,

and what were the results?

e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series?

8. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b)

the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key

meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the

steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies

forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you

received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who

wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly

Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?"

Dr. Michael Mann

Page 4

Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of

the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424.



10/5/2005
Page 15 of 25

    Sincerely,

    Joe Barton Ed Whitfield

    Chairman Chairman

    Subcommittee on Oversight

   and Investigations

   cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking
                                           Member
   The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member,

   Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations



  June 23, 2005

  Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes

  Professor

  Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research

 The University of Arizona

 PO Box 210058

 Tucson, AZ 85721

 Dear Dr. Hughes:

 Questions have been raised, according to
                                             a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall
                                                                                        Street
 Journal, about the significance of methodological
                                                      flaws and data errors in studies you co-authored
 of the historical record of temperatures
                                          and climate change. We understand that
                                                                                      the Mann,
 Bradley, Hughes studies of temperature
                                          proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals,
                                                                                         etc.) formed the
basis for a new finiding in the 2001 United
                                             Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
                                                                                                Change
(IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR).
                                            This finding - that the increase in 2Oth century
                                                                                               northern
hemisphere temperatures is "likely to have
                                             been the largest of any century during the
                                                                                           past 1,000
years" and that the "Il990s was the warmest
                                              decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has
                                                                                            since been


10/5/2005
Page 16 of25

 referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate

 change policy.

 However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy

 & Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the

 available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories       -   and hence whether

 warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented     -   cannot be supported by the Mann et. al.

 studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other

 reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of

problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions

have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to

perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such

information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to

researchers upon request.

Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes

Page 2

The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally

funded research and of the IPCC review process     -   two matters of particular interest to the

Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether JIPCC review has been sufficiently

independent. We understand that you were a contributing author of the IPCC chapter that assessed

and reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributors to this very

same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in,the IPCC TAR and your

position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led

to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this

controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies.

As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry,



10/5/2005
Page 17 of 25


providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as

the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of

claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we

also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of information developed or

disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met.

In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues,

the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to

climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding your studies bears

directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely

and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment process. With

the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of

quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both

scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy

decisions drawing from this work.

To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of

Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 11,

2005:

1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies relating to climate

change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source of funding for

those studies.

2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including, but not

limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including subgrants

or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria.

 3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under which you

were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to



 10/5/2005
Page 18 of 25

   those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited
                                                                  to, any provisions,
   adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating
                                                              to the dissemination and
   sharing of research results.

   Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes

  Page 3

  4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published
                                                                          study for which you
  were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information
                                                                         contains all the
  specific data you used and calculations your perform-ed, including
                                                                     such supporting
  documentation as computer source code, validation information,
                                                                 and other ancillary
  information, necessary for full evaluation and application of
                                                                the data, particularly for
  another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this
                                                                  informnation. was available to
 researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location
                                                                   of this information; (d)
 what modifications, if any, you have made to this information
                                                               since publication of the
 respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully
                                                                 available, provide a detailed
 narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire
                                                                  the necessary information
 to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy
                                                                    data you used.
 5. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly
                                                                      archived, what requests
have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the
                                                              climate change studies, what
was your response, and why?

6. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment,
                                                             Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005)
report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998.
                                                               Provide a detailed
narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these
                                                            may affect the underlying
conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers
                                                               to the following questions:
a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series
                                                                referenced in the
article and, if so, what was the result?



10/5/2005
Page 19 of 25


b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the

referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results?

c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly

for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?

d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820,

and what were the results?

e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series?

7. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b)

the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key

meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the

steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies

forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you

received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who

wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly

Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?"

Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes

Page 4

Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of

the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424.

Sincerely,

Joe Barton Ed Whitfield

Chairman Chairman

Subcommittee on Oversight

and Investigations



 10/5/2005
Page 20 of 25


cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member

The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member,

Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations




June 23, 2005

Dr. Raymond S. Bradley

Director, Climate System Research Center

Department of Geosciences

Morrill Science Center

University of Massachusetts

Amherst, MA 01003-9297

Dear Dr. Bradley:

Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street

Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies you co-authored

of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that the Mann,

Bradley, Hughes studies of temperature proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) form-ed the

basis for a new finding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

(IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding      -   that the increase in 20th century northern

hemisphere temperatures is "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000

years" and that the "1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has since been

referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate

change policy.

However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy

& Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the



10/5/2005
Page 21 of25

 available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories       -   and hence whether

 warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented     -   cannot be supported by the Mann et. al.

 studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other

 reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of

 problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions

 have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to

perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such

information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to

researchers upon request.

Dr. Raymond S. Bradley

Page 2

The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally

funded research and of the   IPCC review process    -   two matters of particular interest to the

Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IPCC review has been sufficiently

independent. We understand that you were a contributing author of the IPCC chapter that assessed

and reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributors to this very

same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR and your

position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led

to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this

controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies.

As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry,

providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as

the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of

claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we

also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of information developed or



10/5/2005
Page 22 of 25


disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met.

In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues,

the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to

climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding your studies bears

directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely

and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IIPCC assessment process. With

the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of

quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both

scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy

decisions drawing from this work.

To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of

Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1,

2005:

1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies relating to climate

change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source of funding for

those studies.

2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including, but not

limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including subgrants

or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria.

3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under which you

were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to

those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited to, any provisions,

adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating to the dissemination and

sharing of research results.

Dr. Raymond S. Bradley



 10/5/2005
Page 23 of 25


 Page 3

4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published study for which you

were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information contains all the

specific data you used and calculations your performed, including such supporting

documentation as computer source code, validation information, and other ancillary

inform-ation, necessary for full evaluation and application of the data, particularly for

another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this information was available to

researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location of this information; (d)

what modifications, if any, you have made to this information since publication of the

respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully available, provide a detailed

narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire the necessary information

to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy data you used.

5. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly archived, what requests

have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the climate change studies, what

was your response, and why?

6. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005)

report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998. Provide a detailed

narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these may affect the underlying

conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers to the following questions:

a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series referenced in the

article and, if so, what was the result?

b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the

referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results?

c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly

for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results?



10/5/2005
Page 24 of 25


d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820,

and what were the results?

e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series?

7. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovermnmental Panel on Climate

Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b)

the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key

meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the

steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies

forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you

received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who

wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly

Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?"

Dr. Raymond S. Bradley

Page 4

Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of

the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424.

Sincerely,

Joe Barton Ed Whitfield

Chairman Chairman

Subcommittee on Oversight

and Investigations

cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member

The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member,

Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations




10/5/2005
Page 25 of 25


Myron Ebell
Director, Global Warming and International Environmental Policy
Competitive Enterprise Institute
1001I Connecticut Avenue, N. W., Suite 1250
Washington, D. C., 20036, U. S. A.
Telephone: (202) 331-2256 direct
Mobile telephone: (202) 320-6685
CEI telephone: (202) 3 3 1-101 0
E-mail: mebell~acei.org Web site: www.cei.or
Adv~ancing liberty.




10/5/2005

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CEI Email 6.24.05

  • 1. Page Ilof 25 Perhach, William __ From: Myron Ebell [mebell~cei .org] Sent: Friday, June 24, 2005 5:47 PM To: Myron Ebell Subject: Letters from Barton and Whitfield, Energy and Commerce Committee, to Pachauri, NSF, Mann, Bradley, and Hughes Letters from Rep. Joe Barton, Chairman, House Energy and Commerce Committee, and Rep. Ed Whitfield, Chairman, House Energy and Commerce Committee Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations to Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Chairman of the UN IPCC, Dr. Arden Bennett, Chairman of the National Science Foundation, and Mann, Bradley, and Hughes. hlip ://enecrgycoQmm-er~ce-.h-ouse-. gov/ I 08/Le~tters/06232005 15 70.htm June 23, 2005 Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri Chairman Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change C/O IPCC Secretariat World Meteorological Organization 7 bis Avenue de La Paix C.P. 2300 Ch- 1211 Geneva 2 Switzerland Dear Chairman Pachauri: Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies by Dr. Michael Mann and co-authors of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that these studies of temperature proxies (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for anew finding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding - that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was 10/5/2005
  • 2. Page 2 of 25 the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has since been referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy. However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, Energy & Environment, among others, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented - cannot be supported by the Mann et. al. studies. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journal and these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, the information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fuilly available to researchers upon request. Dr. Raj endra K. Pachauri Page 2 The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally funded research and of the IPCC review process - two matters of particular interest to the Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IIPCC review has been sufficiently robust and independent. We understand that Dr. Michael Mann, the lead author of the studies in question, was also a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported this very same work, and that two co-authors of the studies were also contributing authors to the same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies. In ligzht of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmnental issues 10/5/2005
  • 3. Page 3 of 25 in the U.S. House of Representatives, the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to climate change policy. We open this review because the dispute surrounding these studies bears directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment process. With the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of quality and transparency in the underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy decisions drawing from this work. To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1, 2005: 1. Explain the IPCC process for preparing and writing its assessment reports, including, but not limited to: (a) how referenced studies are reviewed and assessed by the relevant Working Group; (b) the steps taken by lead authors, reviewers, and others to ensure the data underlying the studies forming the basis for key findings - particularly proxy and temperature data - are accurate and up to date; and (c) the IPCC requirements governing the quality of data used in reports. 2. What specifically did IPCC do to check the quality of the Mann et. al. studies and underlying data, cited in the TAR? Did IPCC seek to ensure the studies could be replicated? 3. What is your position with regard to: (a) the recent challenges to the quality of the Mann et. al. data, (b) related questions surrounding the sharing of methods and research for others to test the validity of these studies, and (c) what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies? 4. What did IPCC do to ensure the quality of data for other prominent historical temperature 10/5/2005
  • 4. Page 4 of 25 or proxy studies cited in the IPCC, including the Folland et. al. and Jones et. al. studies that were sources for the graphic accompanying the Mann et. al. graphic in the Summary for Policy Makers? Are the data and methodologies for such works complete and available for other researchers to test and replicate? Dr. Raj endra K. Pachauri Page 3 5. Explain (a) the facts and circumstances by which Dr. Michael Mann served as a lead author of the very chapter that prominently featured his work and (b) by which his work became a finding and graphical feature of the TAR Summary for Policymnakers. 6. Explain (a) how IPCC ensures objectivity and independence among section contributors and reviewers, (b) how they are chosen, and (c) how the chapters, summaries, and the full report are approved and what any such approval signifies about the quality and acceptance of particular research therein. 7. Identify the people who wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the TAR, particularly Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?" and explain all their roles in the preparation of the TAR, including, but not limited to, the specific roles in the writing and review process. 8. Given the questions about Mann et. al. data, has the Working Group I or the IPCC made any changes to specific procedures or policies, including policies for checking the quality of data, for the forthcoming Fourth Assessment Report? If so, explain in detail any such changes, and why they were made. 9. Does the IPCC or Working Group I have policies or procedures regarding the disclosure and dissemination of scientific data referenced in the reports? If so, explain in detail any such policies and what happens when they are violated. Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of 10/5/2005
  • 5. Page 5 of 25 the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424. Sincerely, Joe Barton Ed Whitfield Chairman Chairman Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations June 23, 2005 Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr. Director National Science Foundation 4201 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, Virginia 22230 Dear Dr. Bement: Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies by Dr. Michael Mann and co-authors of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that these studies of temperature proxies (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for a new finding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding - that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is 10/5/2005
  • 6. Page 6 of 25 "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "I 990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has since been referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy. However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, Energy & Environment, among others, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the available informnation, the conclusions concerning temperature histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented - cannot be supported by the Mann et. al. studies. Jn addition, we understand from the February 14 Journal and these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, the information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to researchers upon request. According to the article, the authors' requests for National Science Foundation assistance to obtain this information have been turned down. Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr. Page 2 The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally funded research and of the IPCC review process - two matters of particular interest to the Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IPCC review has been sufficiently independent. We understand that Dr. Michael Mann, the lead author of the studies in question, was also a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported this very same work, and that two co-authors of the studies were also contributing authors to the same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR, we seek to learn more about the facts 10/5/2005
  • 7. Page 7 of 25 and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies. As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry, providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of infornation developed or disseminated with the support of your agency have been appropriately met. In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues, the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to climate change policy. We open this review because the dispute surrounding these studies bears directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment process. With the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of quality and transparency in the underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy decisions drawing from this work. To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1, 2005: 1. Explain in detail your policies and procedures regarding the disclosure and dissemination of scientific data obtained with federal funds and grants, including, but not limited to: (a) a copy of all such applicable policies and internal guidance relating to implementation of such policies, (b) the obligations of universities, individuals, and other funding recipients regarding these policies, (c) the agency departments and individuals charged with 10/5/2005
  • 8. Page 8 of 25 ensuring such policies are implemented, and (d) the steps your agency takes to ensure these policies are implemented. 2. List all grants and all other funding awards given for research in the area of climate or paleoclimate research, including, but not limited to, the dates of the awards, the identity of the recipients, principal investigators, and whoever is contractually obligated to ensure provisions of the awards are met. 3. Explain how NSF ensures compliance with award provisions. Dr. Arden L. B~ement, Jr. Page 3 4. In the area of climate or paleoclimate research, are you aware of any violation of requirements or obligations concerning the sharing and dissemination of data and research, pursuant to applicable agency and federal policies? If so, describe each violation. 5. Have you received any requests for access to the research or data in studies conducted by Mann et. al., cited in the IPCC Third Assessment Report? If so, identify and provide all records relating to such requests. 6. Describe in detail how your agency has supported or disseminated the information developed in the Mann et. aL. studies. 7. Does your agency consider the IPCC review and writing process for the TAR to be consistent with your agency's policies or guidelines relating to information or data quality? Explain where the review and writing process is consistent or inconsistent in this regard. Please note that, for the purpose of responding to this request, the applicable time period is 1995 to present. The terms "records" and "relating" should be interpreted in accordance with the attachment to this letter. 10/5/2005
  • 9. Page 9 of 25 Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424. Sincerely, Joe Barton Ed Whitfield Chairman Chairman Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations Attachment Dr. Arden L. Bement, Jr. Page 4 ATTACHMENT 1. The term "records" is to be construed in the broadest sense and shall mean any written or graphic material, however produced or reproduced, of any kind or description, consisting of the original and any non-identical copy (whether different from the original because of notes made on or attached to such copy or otherwise) and drafts and both sides thereof, whether printed or recorded electronically or magnetically or stored in any type of data bank, including, but not limited to, the following: correspondence, memoranda, records, summaries of personal conversations or interviews, minutes or records of meetings or conferences, opinions or reports of consultants, projections, statistical statements, drafts, contracts, agreements, purchase orders, invoices, confirmations, telegraphs, telexes, agendas, books, notes, pamphlets, periodicals, reports, studies, evaluations, opinions, logs, diaries, desk calendars, appointment books, tape recordings, video recordings, e-mails, voice mails, 10/5/2005
  • 10. Page IO0of 25 computer tapes, or other computer stored matter, magnetic tapes, microfilm, microfiche, punch cards, all other records kept by electronic, photographic, or mechanical means, charts, photographs, notebooks, drawings, plans, inter-office communications, intra-office and intradepartmental communications, transcripts, checks and canceled checks, bank statements, ledgers, books, records or statements of accounts, and papers and things similar to any of the foregoing, however denominated. 2. The terms "relating, ". .relate," or "regarding" as to any given subject means anything that constitutes, contains, embodies, identifies, deals with, or is in any manner whatsoever pertinent to that subject, including but not limited to records concerning the preparation of other records. June 23, 2005 Dr. Michael Mann Assistant Professor Department of Environmental Sciences University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22904 Dear Dr. Mann: Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in your studies of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that these studies of temperature proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for a new finding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding - that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is 10/5/2005
  • 11. Page I11 of 25 "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the wannest year" - has since been referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy. However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy & Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented - cannot be supported by the Mann et al. studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to researchers upon request. The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally funded research and of the IPCC review process - two matters of particular interest to the Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IPCC review has been sufficiently Dr. Michael Mann Page 2 independent. We understand that you were a lead author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributing authors to this very same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR and your position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies. 10/5/2005
  • 12. Page 12 of 25 scientific inquiry, As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open to replicate a study, as providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability by which the reliability of the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard these studies, we claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding developed or also seek to learn whether obligations concern-ing the sharing of information disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met. issues, In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental matters relating to the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering your studies bears climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding climate studies rely directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which process. With and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment questions of the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing that assessment, both quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting going to make policy scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually decisions drawing from this work. the U.S. House of To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of on or before July 11, Representatives, please provide the following information requested below 2005: relating to climate 1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies of funding for change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source those studies. but not 2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including, subgrants limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria. which you 3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under 10/5/2005
  • 13. Page 13 of 25 were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited to, any provisions, adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating to the dissemination and sharing of research results. 4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published study for which you were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information contains all the specific data you used and calculations your performed, including such supporting documentation as computer source code, validation information, and other ancillary Dr. Michael Mann Page 3 information, necessary for full evaluation and application of the data, particularly for another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this information was available to researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location of this information; (d) what modifications, if any, you have made to this information since publication of the respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully available, provide a detailed narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire the necessary information to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy data you used. 5. According to The Wall Street Journal,you have declined to release the exact computer code you used to generate your-results. (a) Is this correct? (b) What policy on sharing research and methods do you follow? (c) What is the source of that policy? (d) Provide this exact computer code used to generate your results. 6. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly archived, what requests have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the climate change studies, what was your response, and why? 7. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005) 10/5/2005
  • 14. Page 14 of 25 report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998. Provide a detailed narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these may affect the underlying conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers to the following questions: a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series referenced in the article and, if so, what was the result? b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results? c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results? d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820, and what were the results? e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series? 8. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b) the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?" Dr. Michael Mann Page 4 Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424. 10/5/2005
  • 15. Page 15 of 25 Sincerely, Joe Barton Ed Whitfield Chairman Chairman Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations June 23, 2005 Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes Professor Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research The University of Arizona PO Box 210058 Tucson, AZ 85721 Dear Dr. Hughes: Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies you co-authored of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that the Mann, Bradley, Hughes studies of temperature proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) formed the basis for a new finiding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding - that the increase in 2Oth century northern hemisphere temperatures is "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "Il990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has since been 10/5/2005
  • 16. Page 16 of25 referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy. However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy & Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented - cannot be supported by the Mann et. al. studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to researchers upon request. Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes Page 2 The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally funded research and of the IPCC review process - two matters of particular interest to the Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether JIPCC review has been sufficiently independent. We understand that you were a contributing author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributors to this very same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in,the IPCC TAR and your position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies. As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry, 10/5/2005
  • 17. Page 17 of 25 providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of information developed or disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met. In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues, the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding your studies bears directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IPCC assessment process. With the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy decisions drawing from this work. To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 11, 2005: 1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies relating to climate change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source of funding for those studies. 2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including, but not limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including subgrants or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria. 3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under which you were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to 10/5/2005
  • 18. Page 18 of 25 those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited to, any provisions, adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating to the dissemination and sharing of research results. Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes Page 3 4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published study for which you were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information contains all the specific data you used and calculations your perform-ed, including such supporting documentation as computer source code, validation information, and other ancillary information, necessary for full evaluation and application of the data, particularly for another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this informnation. was available to researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location of this information; (d) what modifications, if any, you have made to this information since publication of the respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully available, provide a detailed narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire the necessary information to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy data you used. 5. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly archived, what requests have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the climate change studies, what was your response, and why? 6. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005) report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998. Provide a detailed narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these may affect the underlying conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers to the following questions: a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series referenced in the article and, if so, what was the result? 10/5/2005
  • 19. Page 19 of 25 b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results? c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results? d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820, and what were the results? e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series? 7. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b) the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?" Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes Page 4 Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424. Sincerely, Joe Barton Ed Whitfield Chairman Chairman Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations 10/5/2005
  • 20. Page 20 of 25 cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations June 23, 2005 Dr. Raymond S. Bradley Director, Climate System Research Center Department of Geosciences Morrill Science Center University of Massachusetts Amherst, MA 01003-9297 Dear Dr. Bradley: Questions have been raised, according to a February 14, 2005 article in The Wall Street Journal, about the significance of methodological flaws and data errors in studies you co-authored of the historical record of temperatures and climate change. We understand that the Mann, Bradley, Hughes studies of temperature proxy records (tree rings, ice cores, corals, etc.) form-ed the basis for a new finding in the 2001 United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR). This finding - that the increase in 20th century northern hemisphere temperatures is "likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years" and that the "1990s was the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year" - has since been referenced widely and has become a prominent feature of the public debate surrounding climate change policy. However, in recent peer-reviewed articles in Science, Geophysical Research Letters, and Energy & Environment, researchers question the results of this work. As these researchers find, based on the 10/5/2005
  • 21. Page 21 of25 available information, the conclusions concerning temperature histories - and hence whether warming in the 20th century is actually unprecedented - cannot be supported by the Mann et. al. studies cited in the TAR. In addition, we understand from the February 14 Journaland these other reports that researchers have failed to replicate the findings of these studies, in part because of problems with the underlying data and the calculations used to reach the conclusions. Questions have also been raised concerning the sharing and dissemination of the data and methods used to perform the studies. For example, according to the January 2005 Energy & Environment, such information necessary to replicate the analyses in the studies has not been made fully available to researchers upon request. Dr. Raymond S. Bradley Page 2 The concerns surrounding these studies reflect upon the quality and transparency of federally funded research and of the IPCC review process - two matters of particular interest to the Committee. For example, one concern relates to whether IPCC review has been sufficiently independent. We understand that you were a contributing author of the IPCC chapter that assessed and reported your own studies, and that two study co-authors were also contributors to this very same chapter. Given the prominence these studies were accorded in the IPCC TAR and your position and role in that process, we seek to learn more about the facts and circumstances that led to acceptance and prominent use of this work in the IPCC TAR and to understand what this controversy indicates about the data quality of key IPCC studies. As you know, sharing data and research results is a basic tenet of open scientific inquiry, providing a means to judge the reliability of scientific claims. The ability to replicate a study, as the National Research Council has noted, is typically the gold standard by which the reliability of claims is judged. Given the questions reported about data access surrounding these studies, we also seek to learn whether obligations concerning the sharing of information developed or 10/5/2005
  • 22. Page 22 of 25 disseminated with federal support have been appropriately met. In light of the Committee's jurisdiction over energy policy and certain environmental issues, the Committee must have full and accurate information when considering matters relating to climate change policy. We open this review because this dispute surrounding your studies bears directly on important questions about the federally funded work upon which climate studies rely and the quality and transparency of analyses used to support the IIPCC assessment process. With the IPCC currently working to produce a fourth assessment report, addressing questions of quality and transparency in the process and underlying analyses supporting that assessment, both scientific and economic, are of utmost importance if Congress is eventually going to make policy decisions drawing from this work. To assist us as we begin this review, and pursuant to Rules X and XI of the U.S. House of Representatives, please provide the following information requested below on or before July 1, 2005: 1. Your curriculum vitae, including, but not limited to, a list of all studies relating to climate change research for which you were an author or co-author and the source of funding for those studies. 2. List all financial support you have received related to your research, including, but not limited to, all private, state, and federal assistance, grants, contracts (including subgrants or subcontracts), or other financial awards or honoraria. 3. Regarding all such work involving federal grants or funding support under which you were a recipient of funding or principal investigator, provide all agreements relating to those underlying grants or funding, including, but not limited to, any provisions, adjustments, or exceptions made in the agreements relating to the dissemination and sharing of research results. Dr. Raymond S. Bradley 10/5/2005
  • 23. Page 23 of 25 Page 3 4. Provide the location of all data archives relating to each published study for which you were an author or co-author and indicate: (a) whether this information contains all the specific data you used and calculations your performed, including such supporting documentation as computer source code, validation information, and other ancillary inform-ation, necessary for full evaluation and application of the data, particularly for another party to replicate your research results; (b) when this information was available to researchers; (c) where and when you first identified the location of this information; (d) what modifications, if any, you have made to this information since publication of the respective study; and (e) if necessary information is not fully available, provide a detailed narrative description of the steps somebody must take to acquire the necessary information to replicate your study results or assess the quality of the proxy data you used. 5. Regarding study data and related information that is not publicly archived, what requests have you or your co-authors received for data relating to the climate change studies, what was your response, and why? 6. The authors McIntyre and McKitrick (Energy & Environment, Vol. 16, No. 1, 2005) report a number of errors and omissions in Mann et. al., 1998. Provide a detailed narrative explanation of these alleged errors and how these may affect the underlying conclusions of the work, including, but not limited to answers to the following questions: a. Did you run calculations without the bristlecone pine series referenced in the article and, if so, what was the result? b. Did you or your co-authors calculate temperature reconstructions using the referenced "archived Gaspe tree ring data," and what were the results? c. Did you calculate the R2 statistic for the temperature reconstruction, particularly for the 15th Century proxy record calculations and what were the results? 10/5/2005
  • 24. Page 24 of 25 d. What validation statistics did you calculate for the reconstruction prior to 1820, and what were the results? e. How did you choose particular proxies and proxy series? 7. Explain in detail your work for and on behalf of the Intergovermnmental Panel on Climate Change, including, but not limited to: (a) your role in the Third Assessment Report; (b) the process for review of studies and other information, including the dates of key meetings, upon which you worked during the TAR writing and review process; (c) the steps taken by you, reviewers, and lead authors to ensure the data underlying the studies forming the basis for key findings of the report were sound and accurate; (d) requests you received for revisions to your written contribution; and (e) the identity of the people who wrote and reviewed the historical temperature-record portions of the report, particularly Section 2.3, "Is the Recent Warming Unusual?" Dr. Raymond S. Bradley Page 4 Thank you for your assistance. If you have any questions, please contact Peter Spencer of the Majority Committee staff at (202) 226-2424. Sincerely, Joe Barton Ed Whitfield Chairman Chairman Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations cc: The Honorable John Dingell, Ranking Member The Honorable Bart Stupak, Ranking Member, Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations 10/5/2005
  • 25. Page 25 of 25 Myron Ebell Director, Global Warming and International Environmental Policy Competitive Enterprise Institute 1001I Connecticut Avenue, N. W., Suite 1250 Washington, D. C., 20036, U. S. A. Telephone: (202) 331-2256 direct Mobile telephone: (202) 320-6685 CEI telephone: (202) 3 3 1-101 0 E-mail: mebell~acei.org Web site: www.cei.or Adv~ancing liberty. 10/5/2005