Reconstructing Climatic and Environmental Changes" FOIA Document "Kyoto Protocol and Global Warming" 3.02

1. The Kyoto Protocol and
Global Warming
Sallie Baliunas
March 2002
Sallie Baliunas. an astrophysicist at the
Harvard- Smithsonian Center for
Astrophysics and deputy directory of Mount
Wilson Observatory, received her M.A. an -
Ph.D. degrees in astrophysics from Harvarc
Univerity. She is co-host of the Web site
www.TechCentralStation .com, a senior
scientist and chair of the Science Advisory
Board at the George C. Marshall Institute,
and past contributing editor to World Climo te
Report. Her awards include the Newton-
Lacy- Pierce Prize of the Amnerican
Astronomical Society, the Petr Beckmann
Awards for Scientific Freedom, and the Bc k
Prize from Harvard Univerity. 'The authorof
over 200 scientific articles, Dr. Baliunas
served as technical consultant for a science
fiction television series, Gene Roddeubey s
Earth Final Conflict. Her research interests
include solar variability,
magnetohydrodynamics of the sun and sun
like stars, expoplanets, and the use of iasei
electro- optics for the correction of turbule ice
due to the earth's atmosphere in astronomi al
images.
on February 5,
The following is abridged from a speeci delivered at Hillsdale College
Alternatives and the
2002, at a seminar co-sponsored by t e Center for Constructive
Ludwig von Mises Lecture Series.
The evolution from fire to fossil fuets to nu tear energy is a path of improved human
is
health and welfare arising from efficient a d effective access to energy. One trade-off
that energy use by human beings has always produced environmental change. For
trees
example, it has resulted in human artifacts marking the landscape, the removal of
from major areas for wood burning, and region-wide noxious air pollution from coal
the
burning. On the other hand, ready availability of energy that produces wealth through

2. environmental damage from
free market system provides ways to remedy (r minimize,
energy use.
oil and natural gas has become the
With widespread industrialization, human use of coal,
environmental impact, viz., global
centerpiece in an international debate over a gobal
of the energy consumed in the United
warmning. Fossil fuels provide roughly 84 per ent
An attempt to address the risk
States and 80 percent of the energy produce worldwide.
carbon dioxide-emnitting fuels is
of deleterious global warming from the use of these
series of international negotiations. But
embodied in the Kyoto Protocol and its attendant
Kyoto Protocol as an attempt to control
on scientific, economic and political grounds ,the
this risk while improving the human condition is flawed.
What Would Kyoto Do?
advanced computer simulations of
Projections of future energy use, applied to hemost
warming from a continued
climate, have yielded wide-ranging forecast of future
The middle range forecast of the
increase of carbon dioxide concentration in he air.
Panel on Climate Change, based on
estimates of the United Nations Intergoverrn ental
consists of a one degree Celsius
expected growth in fossil fhel use without a y curbs,
including the effect of
increase over the next half century. A climate simulation
1997 and calling, for a worldwide five
implementing the Kyoto Protocol - - negoti tdin
levels -- would reduce that increase to
percent cut in carbon dioxide emissions fro n1990
0.06 degree Celsius averted
0.94 degree Celsius. This amounts to an in!igniticant
tracks the forecast of increasing
temperature increase. [See Chart 1. The ja 'ged line
Center' s model. The upper straight line
temperatures through 2050. based on the adley
rise without implementation of
is the linear trend fit to the model's forecast temperature
with implementation.]
Kyoto, and the lower straight line is the Iiiar trend
that are required under the Kyoto
To achieve the carbon dioxide emission cit s by 2012
its projected 20 12 energy use by about
agreement, the United States would have t stash
so minimnal in termis of averted
25 percent. Why, then, are the temperature forecasts
China, India and Mexico are exempt
global warming? The answer is that countr es like
the world's leading emitter of
from making emission cuts, and China alone will become
carbon dioxide in just a few years.
Kyoto carbon dioxide emission cuts to
Most economic studies indicate that the c s of the
$400 billion per year. One major
the U.S. would amount to between $ 100 billion and
policy has been constrained by
reason these costs are so high is that past US. energy
the number of U.S. nuclear
political influences. For example, substantially expanding
would enable the U.S. to meet both
power plants and reducing the number of coal plants
dioxide emission reductions. But no
its future energy needs and Kyoto's mandated carbon
over 20 years, owing to non-technical
nuclear power plants have been built in tlf e U.S. in
factors.
wind and solar power have been
Over the same period, renewable energy sources like
boutique energy sources: they produce
discussed to the point of distraction. But hese are

3. do so ntermittently. While they may be cost- a
relatively minute amounts of energy and
fr large-scale electricity generation. (As
effective in limited locales, they are unreliable
e vironmental footprint that wind and solar
side note, often overlooked is the enormous
aconventional 1000 megawatt coal plant
farms would require. For example, to replace
isola -ed, uninhabited area with correct
that spans tens of acres would require an wind
squ2 re miles on which to place over 2,000
meteorological conditions of roughly 400 roads,
of high-power transmission lines,
turbines, not to mention the associated imprint
mental blight and degradation over a
etc. Solar panel farms would produce enviro
similarly sized landscape.)
to oeninternational relations. The
The Kyoto Protocol also has the potential
on the U3.S. to maintain stability and to provide
struggling economies of the world rely
pa mer While the developing nations are
aid and economic opportunity as a trading
cuts, the severe economic impact on the
exempt from making carbon dioxide emission
to continue to promote international stability
U3.S. would dramatically curtail its ability
i
and to help improve those nations economie
What Does Science Say?
d occur as a result of implementing the
Whereas the economic catastrophe that wou
)fan environmental catastrophe resulting
Kyoto Protocol is a certainty, the likelihood
ly speculative. The facts in scientific
from a failure to implement Kyoto is extreme
as follows:
agreement concerning global wainting are
natural gas, the air's carbon dioxide
'UAs a result of the human use of coal, oil and
human-produced greenhouse gases like
content (along with the content of o her
gases absorb infrared radiation and, as a
methane) is increasing. Y The green ouse
surface of the earth that would
result, should retain some energy near the
otherwise escape to space.
should work, the surface temperature
~?Based on current ideas about how climate
of the small amount of energy arising
should warm in response to the ad ition
carbon dioxide content.
from a benchmark doubloing of the irs clouds.
7? The main greenhouse effect
is natura and is caused by water vapor and
are for now greatly uncertain. In other
But the impacts of these greenhous factors
computer simulations of the
words, the reliability of even the nm st sophisticated
concentration rests heavily on the use
climate impacts of increased carboi dioxide
To put this in perspective, the
of factors that science does not uertn.
and water vapor in climate simulations
uncertainties surrounding the use o clouds ten
-- not to mention other important
~ctors like sea- ice changes - - are at least
a
being tracked, i.e., the temperature
times greater than the effect of the variable
levels in the air.
rise caused by increased carbon dioxide in the
7? Finally, in the absence of any
con terpoising or magnifying responses
temperature is roughly one degree
climate system, die global average rise in
of the air's carbon dioxide
Celsius or less at equilibrium for a doubling
for so profound a change in the air's
concentration. That is meager wa mng

4. the range of climate's natural
carbon dioxide content. indeed, it is wthin
vaniability.
the
w rmmng is the following: What has been
one key question in the debate over global
aount of energy added by humans from
response of the climate thus far to the sinall to Prove
que tinis important because, in Order
increased carbon dioxide in the air? This simulations
from computer simulations, those
the reliability of future climate forecasts have not
explain g past temperature change. They
need to prove that they are reliable at
yet done so.
surface temperature rose about 0.5 degrees
In the twentieth cen~tury, the global average which
this attributable to human fossil fuel use,
Celsius. At first glance, one might think
Bat a closer look at twentieth century
increased sharply over the past 100 years. 0.5
Firt, a strong warming trend of about
temperatures shows three distinct trends: 1940. Then,
century and peaked around
degrees Celsius began in the late nineteenth warming
1940 intil the late 1970s. And a modest
oddly, there was a cooling trend from Ch~ar2 illustrating surfatce
the p esent. [See
trend occurred from the late 1970s to Unit
and analyzed by Cambridge Research
temperature changes sampled worldwide lines show
ol Space Studies (dotted line). Both
(solid line) and NASA-Goddard Institute
these three distinct phases.]
tUit about 80 percent of the carbon dioxide
How do we interpret this data? We know in
air 3frer 1940. Thus increased carbon dioxide
from human activities was added to the 4 wa ming trend. That trend had to be largely
the air cannot account for the pre- 19 O
c ntent increased most rapidly, temperatures
natural. Then, as the air's carbon dioxide about 0.1I
that human effects amount at most to
dropped for nearly 40 years. And it seems the I970s.
increase in warming seen after
degree Celsius per decade -- the maximum
trend in recent decades -- even assuming
How, then, does the observed surface-warming
tc the results of climate change computer
it is all due to human activity -- compare
simulations'?
predict that a smooth, linear rise of at least
Lookig bac at hart 1, climate simulati ns through
b occurring, and that it will continue
twice the observed trend should already
rn has been observed to be at most 0.1I
the next century. Given that the warming greatly to
a( tivities. these future forecasts appear
degree Celsius per decade from human degree
be adjusted downward to, at most, one
exaggerate the future warming and should similar to natural
ofwarming would be very
Celsius warming by 21 00. That amount likely
for thousands of years. Indeed, it would
vaniability, which humans have dealt with
ced in the early centuries of the second
return climate conditions to those experie such
is indicated by numerous proxies of climate,
millennium, when widespread warming sea and lake floor
ice cores, coral, tree growth, and
as glaciers, pollen deposits, boreholes, is
ths so-called Medieval Climate Optimum
sediments. (It is interesting to note that
and Iceland, travel by the Vikings to
associated with the settling of Greenland
gt neratly rising life spans.)
Newfoundland, higher crop yields and

5. New Data
Iin new
temperature data, u.S.,leadership
In ddiionto hatwecan deduce from surfa e he nic
a ile arigtndtms
space instruments and in the finding of globalrsac
a lesser human-made global wamntrdthni
temperature data that also indicates
forecast by climate simulations.
warming Of the lower troposphere
According to these simulations, a readily detectable presence of increased
altitude) must ccrwith the
(roughly 5,000 to 28,000 feet from NASA's microwave sounder
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. But records essentially global,
trend. T ese satellite records are
units aboard satellites show no such -es, which cover a mere fifth of
the planet.
in contrast with records of surface temperatu temperature does vary over
is that while t e tropospheric
And what emerges firomn them warming Pulse of 1997 and 1998
-
short periods -- for example, with the strong El Ni-o record. [See Chart
ov rthe 21 -year span of the
no meaningful warming~trend is observed for the lower troposophere fromn
3, illustrating monthly averaged temperature; El Nino
taking into account the 1997-98
instruments onboard NASA satellites. Even Data are from
+0.04 degree Celsius per decade.
event, the linear trend is only
htp/wwhcmf~aagvtmeaue
lack of a
a proposed explanation for the
it should be noted in passing that there has been This explanation
h-end in t e lower troposphere.
significant human-made warmning sulfuir
is masked because of soot from
contends that human--induced global warmnig cool the atmosphere. But this idea of a
aerosols, wich
dioxide and other hiumnanl-made test by the scie ntific method, because
the
widespread aerosol shading effect fails the trend at all -- is relatively
shows no I ng- term warming
Southern Hemisphere -- which
Free of aerosols.
back
record from -balloons that goes
in addition to satellite records, we have a adiosonde coverage of satellite
obviously ackes the dense spatial
over four decades. This record warming trend in global average
Nevertheless, it too shows no in
measurements. effects. It records the strong warming
that can be attributed to human shiLl
temperature resulting from a natural, periodic
1976-77 known as the Great Pacific Cimate Shift, that global
Oscill tion -- which is so significant
in the Pacific -- the Pacific Decadal illustrates the seasonal average
average temperatures are affected. [See Chart 4, which measured by
for the lower troposphere as
temperature anomaly sampled worldwide a linear trend of +0.09 degree
radiosonde instruments canried aboard balloons. Although
record, the trends
across the entire period of the
Celsius per decade is present if fitted lInes) indicate no
of 1976- 1977 (straight horizontal
before and after the abrupt warming
made war ing. Data are from
evidence of significant human~- the Pacific now
/ngell/ glob.dat.] Furthermore,
7 6 phase, which should
htp/cices~nlgvfp/rnsti998- )9, back to its pre-19
in
seems to have shifted, perhaps global average.
cooler temperatures, especially in Alaska and in the
produce
to the actual measurements of
Thus according to our most relia ble dat, when compared overestimate to some
decades, computer simulations
temperature over the past four

6. exaggerate warming in the lower
degree the warming at the surface and decide ly
past warming trends, they
troposphere. And given that the models have overestimated
expected in the future. This inaccuracy is
presumably also exaggerate the warming to b,
must track over five million parameters;
not surprising. Computer simulations of clina e
change for a period of several decades
relevant to the climate system. To simulate cliate degrees of freedom.
is a computational task that requires 10,000.000.OOOOOO,000,OOO major natural
on two
information
And to repeat, such simulations require acdi t
greenhouse gas factors -- water vapor and cl ouds whose effects we do not yet
--
understand.
natural factors influencing the climate,
Finally, it should be mentioned that in klooktinfor
the sun. Twentieth century temperature
a new area of research centers on the effects of
changing energy output. Although the
changes show a strong correlation with the si ins
energy outputs are uncertain -- as are
causes of the sun's changing particle, magne icand
the correlation is pronounced. It explains
the responses of the climate to solar change --
increase, which, as we have seen,
especially well the early twentieth century tc niperature
(See Chart 5, illustrating the change over
could not have had much human contributio i.
representative of the surface area
four centuries of the Sunspot Number, whica is
low magnetism of the seventeenth
coverage of the sun by strong magnetic fields. The
coincides with the coldest century of the
century, a period called the Maunder Minir urn,
in the latter twentieth century. See
last millennium, and there is sustained high i agnetism
as evidenced by the
also Chart 6, showing that changes in the sun's magnetism --
Cycle (dotted line) -- closely correlates
changing length of the 22-year or Hale Pola ty
(solid line). The sun's shorter
~~with
~~~T changes in Northern Hemisphere land temperature
sun during longer cycles. Lags or
magnetic cycles are more intense, suggestin' a brighter
20 years are not significant, owing to
leads between the two curves that are sho r than
change. inthis chart, the record of
the 22- year time frame of the proxy of bri~ litness
substitutes for global temperature,
reconstructed Northern Hemisphere land t mperature
which is unavailable back to 1700.]
Conclusion
and human energy use:
Two conclusions can be drawn about glob I warming
effects can be found in the best
?? No catastrophic humnan- made glo al warming
measurements of climate that we resently have.
of humans have improved with
7?The longevity, health, welfare and productivity
human wealth has helped
the use of fossil fuels for energy, ad the resulting
to health as well.
produce environmental improvemi nrts beneficial
the issue of greenhouse gases, it is
In light of some of the hysterical language surrounding
greenhouse gas produced by burning
also worth noting that carbon dioxide, the primary
it is essential to life on earth. And
fossil fuels, is not a toxic pollutant. To the contrary,
a ten percent increase in crop
plants have flourished -- agricultural expc its estimate
fertilization effect of increased carbon
growth in recent decades -- due directly, o the
dioxide in the air.

7. cience offers little justification for the
It i goo nt bad, that the best current
new,
infodicates ta
by the (ooPtcl.Tisience
rapid cuts in carbon dioxide mandated minor and will be stow to deveoafrigs
human- made global wanning is relatively of climate.
observ itions and computer simulations
anopportunity to continue to improve arig nlo
ofhmnmd
These will serve to better define the magnitud, response.
development of an effective and cost-effective
One
the KYo Protocols international momentum?
Given this science, what is impelling
i i environmental regulation. This Principle
strong factor is the "Precautionaiy Principle" nment until the action is certain to be
envil
disallows an action that might harm the the
to science in practice, because it Sets
environmentally harmless. it is antithetical 'doing
wit certainty. In addition ,a policy of
impossible goal of proving harmnlessness risk to the earth. This idea of
something' .ispromoted as "insurance" again t possible
ons owtstanding the lack of
insurance as a prudent heg swogo Of
madc warming. First, the actuarial notion
scientific evidence of significant human- well-known
pre, jum, paid against a reasonably
insurance is that of a careffily calculated
But in the case of human-made glob al
risk in outcome and probability of outcome. notion that
ca not be well defined. Second, the
effects, the risk, premnium and outcomes that the actual
insurance ignores the fact
implementing the Kyoto Protocol is effectiv basis for
incons quential. Indeed, the underlying
averted warming that would result is that
reaty of 1992, which specifically states
current international negotiations is the Rio stabilized. In
in the a mosphere, not emissions, be
concentrations of greenhouse gases would have to be
of greenhouse gases, emissions
order to stabilize the au's concentration
cut some 60 to 80 percent.
of life
are key to maintaining Americans' way
For the next several decades, fossil fuels know them
Accor ling to the scientific facts as we
and improving the human condition.
we should not continue using them
today, there is no environmental reason
,arm