About Risks Incident vs. Accident Risk Management Risk Assessment Risk Acceptability Risk Mitigation

1. *“RISK”

2. *Hazard vs. Risk
*A hazard is a present
condition, event,
object, or
circumstance that
could lead to or
contribute to an
unplanned or
undesired event such
as an accident. It is a
source of danger.
*Risk is the future
impact of a hazard
that is not controlled
or eliminated. It can
be viewed as future
uncertainty created by
the hazard.

3. *Accident vs. Incident
*Accident
-an undesired event
that results in harm to
people damage to
property or loss of
property.
*Incident
- is relatively
insignificant event that
might have serious
consequences. Incident
there is no serious injury
nor death but might be
some involved.

4. *In aviation:
Accident is an occurrence during the operation of an aircraft, that
entails:
- a fatality or serious injury;
- substantial damage to the aircraft involving structural failure or
requiring major repair of the aircraft; or
- the aircraft is missing.
An incident is an occurrence, other than an accident, associated
with the operation of an aircraft that affects or could affect the
safety of operation. A serious incident is an incident involving
circumstances indicating that an accident nearly occurred.

5. * Airbus A320-200 overshot the runway at Davao
International Airport
-”kind of accident”
-“kind of accident”

6. *RISK
*Risk (ICAO)—“The likelihood of injury to personnel, damage to
equipment or structures, loss of material, or reduction of
ability to perform a prescribed function, measured in terms
of probability and severity.”
*Risk (FAA)—“The composite of predicted severity and
likelihood of the potential effect of a hazard in the worst
credible system state.”

7. The ICAO definition is more casual and conversational,
relating the broad meaning of the word.
The FAA definition is functional, indicating not only their two
components of the term (severity and likelihood), but also
what it is being measured (the potential effect of a hazard),
and when to measure it (in the worst credible system state).
* Therefore, The ICAO definition
introduces the student to an
overview of the mathematics of
risk, while the FAA presents the
algorithm.

8. The aviation industry faces a diversity of risks
everyday, many capable of compromising the viability of an
operator and some even posing a threat to the industry.
Indeed, risk is a by-product of doing business. Not all risks
can be eliminated, nor are all conceivable risk mitigation
measures economically feasible.
Daily, decisions are made in real time, weighing the
probability and severity of any adverse consequences
implied by the risk against the expected gain of taking the
risk. This process is known as risk management.

9. *RISK MANAGEMENT
*it is an integral component of safety management.
*serves to focus safety efforts on those hazards posing the
greatest risks.
*it facilitates the balancing act between assessed risks and
viable risk mitigation.

10. *The concepts of risk management have
equal application in the decision- making
by management in flight operations, air
traffic control, maintenance, airport
management, manufacturer .
*Risk Management is the
identification, analysis and elimination
(and/or mitigation to an acceptable level)
of those hazards, as well as the subsequent
risks that threaten the viability of an
organization.

11. *RISK ASSESSMENT
-it involves consideration of both the probability and the
severity of any adverse consequences.
-required to assess its potential for harm or damage.
-is a quantitative value assigned to a task, action, or event.

12. * The risk assessment determines the degree of
risk (negligible, low, medium, or high) and
whether the degree of risk is worth the
outcome of the planned activity.

13. *RISK ACCEPTABILITY
*The risks can be prioritized relative to other,
unresolved safety hazards. This is critical in
making rational decisions to allocate limited
resources against those hazards posing the
greatest risks to the organization.
*By weighing the likelihood of an undesirable
outcome against the potential severity of that
outcome, the risk can be categorized within a
risk assessment matrix.

15. In this version of a risk assessment matrix:
a) Severity of risk is ranked as Catastrophic, Hazardous,
Major, Minor or Negligible with a descriptor for each
indicating the potential severity of consequences;
b) Probability (or Likelihood) of occurrence is also ranked
through five different levels of qualitative definition and
descriptors are provided for each likelihood of
occurrence;
c) Values may be assigned numerically, to weigh the
relative importance of each level of severity and
probability.

17. Having used a risk matrix to assign values to risks, a range of
values may be assigned in order to categorize risks as
acceptable, undesirable or unacceptable.
a) Acceptable means that no further action needs to be taken.
Unless the risk can be reduced further at little cost or effort.
b) Undesirable (acceptable with mitigation or tolerable) means
that the affected persons are prepared to live with the risk in
order to have certain benefits. So risk is being mitigated as
best as possible.
c) Unacceptable means that operations under the current
conditions must cease until the risk is reduced to at least the
Tolerable level.

18. *RISK MITIGATION
*Risks have to be managed to a level “as low as
reasonably practicable” (ALARP). This means that the
risk must be balances against the time, cost and
difficulty of taking measure to reduces or eliminate the
risk.
*When the acceptability of the risk has been found to be
Undesirable or Unacceptable, control measures need to
be introduced — the higher the risk, the greater the
urgency. The level of risk can be reduced either by
reducing the severity of the potential consequences, by
reducing the likelihood of occurrence, or by reducing
the exposure to that risk.

19. *The optimum solution will vary, depending on
the local circumstances . In formulating
meaningful safety action, an understanding of
the adequacy of existing defences is required.

20. *DEFENSE ANALYSIS
*A major component of any safety system is the defences put
in place to protect people, property or the environment.
These defences can be used to:
a) reduce the probability of unwanted events; and
b) reduce the severity of the consequences associated with any
unwanted events.

21. Defences can be categorized into two types:
* Physical defences
- these include objects that discourage or prevent
inappropriate action, or that mitigate the consequences of
events. Example: switch covers, firewalls, survival
equipment, warning and alarms.
*Administrative defences
- these include procedures and practices that mitigate the
probability of an accident. Example: safety
regulations, supervision ad inspection, and personal
proficiency.

22. *RISK MITIGATION
STRATEGIES
There is a range of strategies available for risk mitigation.
For example:
*a) Exposure avoidance. The risky task, practice,
operation or activity, is avoided because the risk
exceeds the benefits.
*b) Loss reduction. Activities are taken to reduce the
frequency of the unsafe events or the magnitude of the
consequences.
*c) Segregation of exposure. Action is taken to isolate the
effects of the risk or build in redundancy to protect
against the risks,

23. *
End of my
presentation.
Thank you!