FIL Outreach workshop presentation 2.Combined survey & GIS results

1. Photo Credit Goes Here
COMBINED SURVEY & REMOTE SENSING
RESULTS
M. Mahfujul Haque (Bangladesh Agricultural University)
Ben Belton (Michigan State University)
Hazrat Ali (WorldFish)
Photo: Google Earth
The Harnessing Machine Learning Project Outreach Workshop with Development Partners
August 4, 2022

2. INTRODUCTION
• With machine learning, estimated total farm area from remote
sensed images
• From survey, calculated average rates of: Farm productivity
(t/ha); Gross revenue (farmgate value + own consumed & gifted
value); Gross margins (gross revenue - production costs); Feed
use (t/ha); Employment (FTEs/ha)
• Multiplied per ha average by total area to estimate total: Quantity
of production, Value of production, Farm income, Amount of feed
used, Jobs created.
• Can use same technique to estimate total production of
micronutrients & number of people employed upstream and in
downstream value chains in the same districts (work in progress).

3. SIMILAR ESTIMATES OF FARM AREA FROM
FIL & DOF
74
6 11 6
38
72 72
279
80
12 8 5
34
65 73
276
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Pond
&
gher
area
('000
ha)
FIL estimated area of aquaculture farms
DOF 2020 area of ponds + shrimp prawn farms

4. LARGE VARIATIONS IN FARM SIZE BY DISTRICT
Average area of aquaculture waterbodies per farm
1.10
0.36
0.38
0.30
0.21
0.56
0.71
0.51
Bagerhat
Barisal
Bhola
Gopalganj
Jashore
Khulna
Satkhira
All districts

5. ESTIMATED NUMBER OF FARMS = 5.47 LAKH
67
17 30 19
183
129
102
547
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Number
of
aquaculture
farms
(‘000)
Estimated number of aquaculture farms ('000)

6. TOTAL VALUE OF PRODUCTION = 1.45 BILLION USD
TOTAL VALUE OF FARM PROFIT = 0.67 BILLION USD
394
39
106
20
220
335 341
1,454
185
14 36 9
95
172 160
670
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Value of production (Million USD)
Farm profit (Million USD)

7. PELLETED FEED USE = 2.25 LAKH TONNES (30%)
NON-PELLET FEED USE = 5.30 LAKH TONNES (70%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
SHARE
OF
PELLET
IN
TOTAL
FEED
(%)
TOTAL
FEED
USE
(‘000
t)
Quantity of pelleted feed used (t)
Quantity of non-pelleted feed used (t)

8. FULLTIME EQUIVALENT JOBS CREATED ON-
FARM = 4.3 LAKH
District Male FTEsFemale FTEs Total FTEs
Bagerhat 122,870 18,175 141,045
Barisal 6,916 2,725 9,641
Bhola 9,936 4,935 14,871
Gopalganj 2,580 964 3,544
Jashore 26,017 5,647 31,664
Khulna 66,993 17,748 84,741
Satkhira 129,984 16,004 145,988
All 365,297 66,198 431,495

9. DIFFERENCES IN FIL ESTIMATED & DOF
REPORTED PRODUCTION
1.10
0.76
4.37
6.17
5.47
6.93
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
DOF FIL DOF FIL DOF FIL
Shrimp+prawn Fish Total
Estiamted
production
(100,000
t)
FIL 31%< DOF
FIL 41%> DOF
FIL 27%> DOF

10. CONCLUSIONS
• Preliminary estimates (still to be refined)
• Machine learning estimates of total farm area similar to DOF stats
• Massive contribution to GDP, farmer incomes, employment
• Lower estimates of shrimp + prawn production (31%) compared to
DOF: reflects COVID effect (-25%)
• Much higher fish (41%) and total (27%) production estimates - shift
from shrimp to fish + huge increase in pelleted feed.
• Results reveal potential of combining remote sensing & machine
learning + representative surveys for estimating large range of
statistics.
• Further work ongoing to estimate employment in value chain.
• Potential for expansion of approach to whole country/other countries.

11. ONLINE DECISION SUPPORT TOOL
• https://dsiweb.cse.msu.edu/demo/B
angladesh_aquaculture_data_portal_
seven_districts/

12. www.feedthefuture.gov