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Broadband Business
  beyond learning from the US



          Xiaolin Lu
               CEO
       Morning Forest, LLC
       xlu@morningforest.com


         February 26, 2004
What is this all about?



   China Cable Industry is being “unleashed” from
    government but still a “spoiled” baby in the cradle.
   MBA does not help, but the street-smart might.
   What and where is the business, and does it have
    to repeat everything US did?
AGENDA
   Business Environment: US Example
   Video Business
   High-speed Data Business
   Voice Business
   Networks
   Our Perspectives
1,000
                                                    1,500
                                                                        2,000
                                                                                  2,500
                                                                                                      3,000
                                                                                                              3,500
                                                                                                                                   4,000
                                                                                                                                           4,500
                                                                                                                                                   5,000




                             500

                         0
                 30-Jul-82
                11-Feb-83
               26-Aug-83
               09-Mar-84
               21-Sep-84
                05-Apr-85
                18-Oct-85
               02-May-86
                14-Nov-86
               29-May-87
               11-Dec-87
                24-Jun-88




                                       Doubles in 8 years
                06-Jan-89
                 21-Jul-89
               02-Feb-90
               17-Aug-90
               01-Mar-91
               13-Sep-91
               27-Mar-92
                09-Oct-92
                23-Apr-93
                05-Nov-93
                                                                                                                                                           1983 - 2001




               20-May-94
               02-Dec-94
                                                            Doubles in 4 years



                16-Jun-95
                29-Dec-95
                 12-Jul-96
                                                                                 Doubles in 2 years




                24-Jan-97
                08-Aug-97
                20-Feb-98
                                                                                                               Doubles in 1 year




                04-Sep-98
                19-Mar-99
                 01-Oct-99
                 14-Apr-00
                 27-Oct-00
                                                                                                                                                                         Moore’s Law of Nasdaq




                12-Mar-01
Source: CSFB




                 20-Apr-01
                31-May-01
               11-Jul-2001
The Present State of Telecom

   Telecom was more tightly linked to the dot-com
    industry than most people realized
   Unrealistic optimism set in everywhere
       Disproportionate cost structure and revenue opportunity

   Abundant available capital along with major shift
    of regulatory policy resulted in:
       Fierce competition
       Over capacity

   “Innovative” practices fueled the fire:
       Vendor financing, capacity swaps, round trips
       Revenue = receivable + inventory
Business Environment:
     US Example
COMMUNICATION IN US


  Long-Haul       Metro           Access


“Unregulated”   “Unregulated”    Regulated or
                                Semi-Regulated
  AT&T                              MSO
  Worldcom                          ILEC
  Spring                            CLEC
  Qwest
REGULATION AND BUSINESS

                  VOICE                 DATA          VIDEO


                 Communication        Information      Content
Regulation        Services              Services          Service
                 Title 2              Title 1          Title 6



Requirement      Open Pipe            None             Franchising




Business         Selling Minutes      Flat rate        Flat rate
                                                          + Usage
THE RESIDENTIAL PIE - 2000

Cable Dominates    ILECs Dominates          Cable Leads
Video Market       Voice Market             High-Speed Data
                                            Market




    Video                 Voice                   Data
                  Cable    ILECs   Other

                                   Source: Paul Kagan Associates
Ten Year Performance
           Improvement
 WAN Bandwidth 2                                            2000

 Processor Power 2                                        1000

 Router Engine Performance/Price       1                  1000

 Internet Traffic   2                                     1000

 Bandwidth to Homes 3 13



Sources: 1. Business Communications Reviews, Sept. 1997
         2. AT&T
         3. Dataquest
NETWORK TRAFFIC

                 1000
                            Voice
                 800
                            Data
Traffic (Gb/s)




                 600        Total

                 400

                 200

                   0
                    1990   1995     2000   2005     2010

                                           K.G. Coffman and A. Odlyzko
                                           AT&T Labs
LOOKING FORWARD: TRIPLE PLAY

                       2002
                  Data
                  $28B

 Cable         Voice
                                         ILEC
                          Video
                                          SDV
  VoIP        $75B       $128B
                                          VDSL




             Standard based equipment
             IP Infrastructure
             OSS/BSS
             New Services
OPPORTUNITIES: TRIPLE PLAY



    Create a customer destination
        Reduce churn
        Create differentiation
    Build a common platform for innovation and
     gain economy of scale
    Increase ARPU (Average Revenue Per Unit)
    Offensively and defensively change the nature
     of services and products
BUSINESS COMPARISON


                      Comcast      x       Cox       x     Gehua
Subscriber (M)          21.0      2.3      6.1      0.7      9.0
Revenue ($M)           8,079.0   169.0   5,038.6   105.4    47.8
Operation Cost ($M)    3,511.0   131.7   2,130.9   80.0     26.7
Gross Margin            57%               58%               44%
EBITDA Margin           35%               35%               24%

Revenue/Sub ($)        384.7     72.4    826.0     155.4    5.3
EBITDA/Sub ($)         134.9     79.0    291.7     170.7    1.7
OPPORTUNITIES AND ISSUES
        US                          China
   Telephony: $25

    HSD: $52.95

 VOD& DVR: $9.95
  HDTV: extra $5
     Digital Tier
 $50.44, $60.44, $68.44,
     $78.99, $93.99

  Ext Basic: $40.49                HSD: $15
    Basic: $13.44                 Basic: $2.5

                           US       China
      Network/HHP          $175     $175
        CMTS/Sub           $8        $35
         CM/Sub            $40      $100
BUSINESS VALUATION

                 US       x   China
ARPU/month       57.34   3.8  15.00
Gross Margin    57%            44%
EBITDA Margin   35%      1.5   24%
Multiple         16      1.6   10
 Value/Sub ($) 3,853.2   8.92 432.0
EBITDA/Sub     150.00    88.2  1.70
Debt/EBITDA       4             4
      Debt/Sub 600.00    88.2  6.80
KEY ISSUES

Business Opportunities
           Operations
            Reality

                             Regulatory
                            Environment

    Cost Structure
   ( technology platform)
VIDEO
VIDEO: GOING DIGITAL!
      Total Households
110                                                                   111
      100
                                             106
100
 90   Analog Only Houses                                             89
        82
 80                                                         Total Digital
                   Today
 70
                                              70
                                                            Digital Cable
 60                                                                  59

 50
                                                 45
 40
                                            36
                                                          Satellite Digital
 30                                                                  30

                                             25                      22
 20
                                                              Analog Only
 10
            5
  0
      1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

                           Source = Kagan 2000 Databook
DIGITAL CABLE SUBSCRIPTION

          25

          20                                                 Cablevision
                                                             Cox
Million




          15                                                 Adelphia
                                                             Charter
          10                                                 Comcast
                                                             AOL TW
                                                             AT&T
          5

          0
               4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q
                    00                  01
                                                        Source: UBS Warburg
US CABLE DIGITAL PENETRATION

                 40
                 35
% of Basic Sub




                 30
                 25
                 20
                 15
                 10
                 5
                 0
                      1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q    3Q   4Q

                      00                  01                  02
                                                                   Source: UBS Warburg
VIDEO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
                                                                             Video
                 Analog       Terrestrial    Analog          Digital
                                                                              On
                 Video          Digital      Video           Video
                Services       Services     Services        Services
                                                                            Demand          Customer
                                                                             Server
                                                                                             Premise
                                                                                             Television




                                                                                        Interactive
                                                                                          Set-top
                                                                       Video Services
                     Inband
                    Gateway
                                               Conditional Access,
                                                  Multiplexing,
                                                  Modulation

   Internet                                                             Return                 Nodes
                                                                         Data
                                                                       Channel
                              Application
                               Servers

                                                                        Forward
                                                         Interactive     Data                   Hubs
  Back-Office                                          Communication    Channel
   Systems                                                 Servers

                               Network
                               Control                                  Digital               HFC
                                                                       Headend               Network
OPENCABLE ARCHITECTURE

     OCI-H1   Operations
                                     Security
                           OCI-H2    Module(s)     OCI-C2
Internet
Content                    OCI-N                   OCI-C1

 Video         Headend                               Consumer
Content                                               Devices

 Other
Content
                                     Supporting
                                      Hardware
                                    and Software
                               OpenCable Device
STRATEGIES

                       Increase Subscription Rev$

             Expand
                           Non-TV Ad Market
             “Video”
               Pie
                       Get Paid To Carry Content

                          Transaction Revenue
 “Video”
 Growth
Strategies                Recapture DBS Subs


                         Recapture Tape Rental
             Capture
             “Video”
              Share    Get Ad Share From B’Cast


                           Own The Content
PRODUCT EVOLUTION



                                                          ITV
Digital Penetration




                                                   HDTV

                                              Extended VOD/PVR

                                      VOD

                              Digital Plus

                      Digital Basic


                                       Time
INTERACTIVE TV MARKET

     40,000
     35,000
     30,000                                              Interenet TV
     25,000                                              Direct Response
$M




                                                         Internet Portals
     20,000
                                                         IPG
     15,000                                              VOD
     10,000                                              T-Comm

      5,000
         0
              2001   2003   2005   2007   2009   2011

                                                        Source: Kagan
WHAT’S CHANGED?

   Revenue Projections
                                    Profit        Loss
    •   Advertising
    •   T-Commerce
    •   Walled Garden Fees
   Services
    •   Consumers Like
    •   Consumers Will Pay for
   Costs
    •   Integration
    •   Maintenance              1999 View      2002 View

                                      Revenue     Cost
There Still is a Model, it’s Just Different


 Minimize Cost of Receiver
    •   Small Footprint Implementations
    •   Offload Processing to Proxy Servers for Low Cost Receivers
         • H2O for HTML / JavaScript on Very Low Cost Receivers
    •   Minimize Code Size
 Network Solutions
    •   Balance Traffic Between In-band Push and out-of-Band Pull
    •   Monitor Traffic and Performance
 Maximize Integration with OSS and BSS
    •   Minimum Infrastructure, Integration and Operation Costs
    •   Evangelize Server Side Standardization
         • DVB, Cable Labs, BSS Vendors
THE NEW FOCUS
 Focus on Services that Provide High Value to Consumer,
 but Low Cost to Provide:

   Information, Weather, Stocks, Sports Scores
   Enhanced TV, Player Stats, Multiple Camera Angles
   Shopping on Shopping Channels
   Games of Skill and Parlor Games
   Voting
   Communication Services


Focus Must be Simple, Fast, and Remain TV Centric
COMMUNICATIONS
   Multi-Platform Communications, Provides Interesting
   Opportunity:



Messaging                                    Voice Solutions
- SMS
- Unified Messaging                           - Voice Activated Dialing
- Instant Messaging                           - Voice Controlled
- Voice Mail                                  Messaging
SHORT MESSAGE SERVICE
                                        TV Based Messaging



                                  Sweden

   75% of Mobile Users in          Spain
    Europe Use SMS
                                     Italy
   Currently, Over 12b SMS
    Messages are Sent Each         France
    Month
                                  Germany
   European Wireless Operators
    Generate 5%-15% of Their           UK
    Revenues from SMS Services
                                          0%     10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
                                                         Current      Likely

                                    Source: Forrester, January 2002
FUTURE
 Television on Demand
      VoD, SVoD, Network and Local PVR
    Convergence of Voice, Data and Television Offering
 Beyond Digital TV Infrastructure
   • Roaming Between Digital TV and Other Networks (e.g. Cell
     Phone, Internet)
        • Universal Messaging, Single Sign-in, Digital Passport and Wallet
   • Extension to New Networks
        • Home Area Network, Car Information and Entertainment Systems

 Beyond Entertainment
   • In-house Health Care, Distance Learning
CRITICAL ISSUES

 The ITV Model has Changed, but is Still Attractive
   • Revenue
   • Reduce Churn
   • Fits Well and can Promote Other Services
       • High Speed Data
       • Voice

• Maintaining Simple, Fast, TV Centric Service is a Must
• Cost Effective Hardware and Middleware is Required
• Scale Platforms is Essential to Keep Costs Down and to
  Facilitate Application Development
HIGH SPEED
   DATA
Subscribers (M)
Q
 1-
    19




           0.00
                  10.00
                          20.00
                                  30.00
                                          40.00
                                                  50.00
                                                          60.00
                                                                  70.00
Q 99
 3-
    19
Q 99
 1-
    20
Q 00
 3-
    20
Q 00
 1-
    20
Q 01
 3-
    20
Q 01
 1-
    20
Q 02
 3-
    20
Q 02
 1-
    20
Q 03
 3-
    20
Q 03
 1-
    20
Q 04
 3-
    20
Q 04
 1-
    20
Q 05
 3-
                                                                          Global DOCSIS High Speed Data




    20
Q 05
 1-
    20
Q 06
 3-
    20
Q 06
 1-
    20
Q 07
 3-
    20
      07
HIGH SPEED ACCESS
                                                    North American

                100

                90

                80

                70
HP (Millions)




                60
                                                                                                                                       56
                50                                                                                                          51
                                                                                                                48
                                                                                                     44
                40                                                                     40
                                                                            36
                30                                             30

                20                                  22
                                       13
                10
                            7
                 0
                      '00        '01          '02        '03          '04        '05           '06        '07         '08        '09

                                       Marketed Cable HSD HP        Marketed DSL HP         Other Subs     Total HSD Subs


                                                                                                                     Source: Kagan
SPLIT THE PIE: 2001
             US Only


             Other
DSL           2%
      32%



                                 Cable
                          66%




                       Source: Kinetic Strategies
CABLE MODEM SUBSCRIBER

          12

          10
                                                             Adelphia
          8                                                  Cablevision
Million




                                                             Charter
          6                                                  Cox
                                                             Comcast
          4                                                  AT&T
                                                             TW
          2

          0
               4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q
                    00                  01
                                                        Source: UBS Warburg
Why is DOCSIS 2.0 Compelling

 Can Reduce Overall Capital Investment of
  Upgrade
 Even in Upgraded Plant, Larger Statistical
  Area is Superior Design
 Reduces CMTS Cost Burden on HSD and
  VoIP
       Amortize router blade across more customers
   Plants are Achieving High Penetrations
       How will they perform
         • Without filters
         • With Voice and other low latency services
MARKET DYNAMICS OF DATA BUSINESS
          A Land Grab For 40 Million Existing Narrowband Subscribers


           1994                              2002                             2007
          $0.6 B                            $28 B                             $55 B

                                         Advertising

Content                                       5.4
                                                           E-Commissions
                                                                                 15.4
      0.24                         7.9                0.6              15.7
             0.32                               13.9                          19.8 4.1
                                                             $5.0B
    57%           Access             50%         Cable
                                                             18%                              $9.9B
                                                                           36%        Cable
                                                                                              18%


                Increasingly difficult to capture value merely with access fee
                Key sources of future value in the data business
                       Advertising
                       Ability to close the transaction
                Data business starts to look a lot like the video business
IP INFRASTRUCTURE
 OSS
Server
 Farm        Managed                            HFC Network
                                      CMTS                     CM
            IP Network                           (DOCSIS)




         Many IP Technologies                DOCSIS Standard
                MPLS/VPN/BGP
                Optical Networking
                Advanced OSS/BSS

                       Packet Cable Standard


        Standard based end-to-end solution
        Operation and scalability are the keys
        New business model
VOICE
Voice Isn’t What It Used To Be…
              1994                2002                       2007
              $93 B              $149 B                    $170 B

Residential       Residential
  local               LD
                                44.3 30.8               43.6 23.7
       39.3       39.7
                                  73.7
                                                            103
           13.7
       Total      15%                     50%                        60%
      Cellular



   Cellular has already captured 50% of the value in a decade
   Cellular has blurred the traditional residential-business segmentation
   The residential wireline business is under significant pressure
REDEFINE VOICE SERVICE
                             Average Monthly Phone Bill: Constant
                     $
                                             Vertical Services
                                           CallerID, VoiceMail,
                                               Integration, etc.
Price competition             Access to voice                                Product Differentiation
                              network (Local,
                              Toll, LD, etc)

                                                                   Time


                                          VoIP
                                   Low-cost bundled offering
                                   Web based provisioning
                                   Persistent voice

    Benefit to Consumer                                                Benefit to Cable
       Convenient                                                    Differentiation
       Lower cost                                                    Customer retention
       More service value                                            Additional revenue
VoIP OVER CABLE NETWORK


        MTA       CM                        CMS
                                                         MS
                  HFC Network CMTS
                   (DOCSIS)

                                             Managed                MGC
                                            IP Network               MG          PSTN

MTA
                                                                                 SS7
             CM
                                                                    SG
              HFC Network
                          CMTS
               (DOCSIS)
                                                     OSS      
                                                              
                                                                  TGS
                                                                  DHCP & DNS
                                                    Server       TFTP or HTTP
                                                     Farm        RKS
                                                                 Provisioning

      CMS:         Call Management server         MGC:   Media Gateway Controller
      MS:          Media Server                   MG:    Media Gateway
                                                  SG:    Signaling Gateway
CABLE TELEPHONY SUBSCRIBER
          2.5

           2
Million




          1.5                                                 Cablevision
                                                              Cox
           1                                                  AT&T


          0.5

           0
                4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q   1Q   2Q   3Q   4Q
                     00                       01

                                                         Source: UBS Warburg
Worldwide VoIP Forecast
PacketCable 1.x Architecture
PacketCable VoIP Solution

                          CMS                                                E-MTA
                                                  DOCSIS
                                                    1.1
                          GATE                     HFC
                           Ctrl                   Network

             E-MTA                                      Announcement
                                           CMTS
                                                            Server

                             CMTS   Managed IP               Announcement
                                                               Controller
            DOCSIS 1.1               Network                 Announcement
           HFC Network                                          Player


                                                       Media Gateway
                                                         Controller
                                            GR-303           Media      PSTN
                  DNS       RKS     TFTP     V5.2           Gateway    Gateway
OSS Functions:                              Gateway
                                                         Signaling
 Provisioning,                                           Gateway
   Security,     SYSLOG    DHCP     TOD
Record Keeping
                                                                      PSTN
                 SNMP      KDC
                                                      LDS
EVOLUTION

    Broadband Full Service Platform
    DOCSIS        Open Cable Packet Cable
   High speed       Universal set      End-to-
                                          End-to-end IP
    cable modem       top box             platform

                  UPGRADE

     DWDM                                   Capacity
     RF                                     Quality
     DSP                                    Reliability
NETWORKS
IN THE PAST ...

       Voice = Communication         Video = Entertainment



                   LEC                        Cable
           Twist Pair Star             Coax Tree-and-Branch
           Feature rich POTS           Broadcast video
           $84B “toll collection”      $24B “$1 buffet”

 Monopoly
 Voice-oriented


                 DLC, ISDN
                 FTTH
PERSPECTIVES

             Network
         Connectivity                          Service
                                              Communication
         Resource Sharing
                                              Entertainment
                                              Convergence
    Media     Topology       Control
   Copper       Star      Central           Mind-Set
   Coax         Bus       Distributed      Bell-Head
   Fiber        Ring      Self             Net-Head
   Radio                                     “Cable Guy”
CHANGING PERSPECTIVES

Bell-
Bell-Centric                                         Mosaic

Network            RF Modem                      Standard based
 “Proprietary”    DSP Performance               Capacity
                   Fiber Optics                  Service enabler
 Circuit



Applications         Bandwidth
                         Internet                Broadband
 Feature-
  Feature-rich           Multimedia              Service Package
  Voice                   Router performance
                      
                                                  Network enabled or
 Connection         LAN extension
                                                   independent

Business           Telecom Reform
                   Market maturity &             Competition
   Monopoly
                    growth
OPTIONS

     LEC
   Narrowband
   Switched                             DLC
                                         Rebuild

                      Wireless
                        Mobility           FTTH
                        Broadband


     Cable
                    Network Upgrade   Deep Fiber
   Broadband
   Broadcast
                    Cable modem       Penetration
CHALLENGES

         HE                FN


                  HE                 FN

    HE
                                FN



                                 Analog   Emerging
                                   TV     Services
                            5   50        500    750   1G



   Bandwidth Capacity: 5-40MHz/1000s HHP upstream
   Transport Integrity:   Ingress noise, dynamic range
   103-to-1 Architecture: Centrally-mediated MAC
SOLUTIONS

Bandwidth             UPGRADE
 Capacity           Fiber Node
                                    Network
                     Segmentation
                    DWDM Trunk


 Transport
 Integrity            DOCSIS
                    High level
                     modulation     Modem
                    Centrally-
  103-to-1           mediated MAC
Architecture
Fiber Node Segmentation




HE                   FN

                             1,200 Homes




   Long cascade coax bus shared by many users
    (1000s)
Fiber Node Segmentation

         300 Homes                300 Homes




HE                      FN
            300 Homes        300 Homes




        1,200 HHP/FN with 300 HHP/Bus
DISTRIBUTED HEAD-END
                  HEAD-


                       HE
                                         FN


Primary   Primary
            Hub
                                 HE
 Ring
                                         FN
                        HE




                Operation complexity
                Cost of CMTS at lower take rate
CMTS SCALABILITY
                                                                                ADC          Arris     Cisco
                                                                                Motorola     Juniper   Terayon


                                                                850
                                                                        Minimum            Medium      Maximum


      Chassis-based CMTS has                                   750

       the most advanced                                        650
       features & can simplify the
       metro routing architecture                               550




                                                      $$/Mbps
                                                                450
      Desired configuration favor
       centralized approach                                     350


                                                                250


                                                                150
                                                                        2 LCs              Chassis        Rack
                                                                      80-400Mbps       400-1600Mbps    1200-3840Mbps
* Cost is calculated based on combined upstream and
  downstream capacity, and core-redundancy
  configuration
DWDM TRUNK


                      SH
                                       FN


Primary   Primary
            Hub
                               SH
 Ring
                                       FN
                      SH




          DWDM transport for end-to-end transparency
          Route diversity for service protection
          Consolidate high-end terminals (CMTS)
DWDM TRUNK

Primary Hub                                Secondary Hub
                                   1.3mm
XTR




                                                                 Coarse
                                                                 WDM
l




                                                1 x 8 DWDM
        1 x 8 DWDM




l
l
.                                                            .
                                                             .
.
.                                                            .            Fiber Node
                                   1.5mm                                     RCV

RCV                                                                          l
                     1 x 8 DWDM




                                                1 x 8 DWDM
RCV                                                                          l

RCV
    .
    .                                                        .
                                                             .
    .                                                        .
TRADITIONAL HFC INTERCONNECTION




                        64 SYSTEM HEADENDS

                         4 PRIMARY HUBS

                         0 SECONDARY HUBS
SECONDARY RING HFC INTERCONNECT




                         2 MASTER HEADENDS

                         9 PRIMARY HUBS

                         56 SECONDARY HUBS
MODERN HFC NETWORK


                         SH                   FN



Primary   Primary
            Hub
                                     SH
 Ring

                          SH                  FN




                       DWDM Transport         Segmentation
                    End-to-end Transparency    4X capacity
ARCHITECTURES

Tree-and-Branch
   Broadcast     FN
   Cascaded



                          ???
Cell-Based
   Narrowcast    RN
   Clustered
FIBER OPTICS ?
Node     2,000+HP   1,200HP   600HP   200HP   100HP
Size




HOW Deep ?




HOW    To ?
EVOLUTION


                         Demand
Bandwidth per Customer




                         Take Rate
                         Applications
                         User Behavior

                                                        Push Fiber
                                                         Deeper


                                          Split Nodes
                           Higher RF
                           Efficiency

                                        Time
Fiber Optics for Cable
                    108        FTTH

                    107
                               FTTC (102 HP/node)
                    106
Fiber termination




                    105    FSA (103 HP/node)
                                                    100 ch AM

                    104

                    103

                    102
                               40 ch AM


                          86                  92                   00           06
                                  Broadcast              Two-way        Broadband
mFN
                SH
                                                            mFN         mFN
    PH
    CMTS                 SH                           S
                                                            mFN         mFN
                SH


   mFNs replace all coax amplifiers                      XTR     XTR    XTR
        Less active components
        More bandwidth and flexibility                   WDM PON
        Deep fiber penetration with cell structure
   Optical add/drop to daisy chain mFNs
        Reduced fiber management & labor
        Provisioning for growth
   Distributed processing at mFN
ADVANTAGES

   Operation Savings
       61% reduction in active components
       Reduced power consumption
       Simplification of maintenance

   Improved Performance
       Reduced ingress noise funneling (10-48MHz operation)
       Increased RF bandwidth
       Improved reliability

   Future Proof
       Flexibility between current track and future opportunities
       Improved QoS and further cost reduction
OPERATION SAVINGS




    Current Network:   5.5 actives/mile
OPERATION SAVINGS




    61% reduction in active components
    21+% improvement in reliability
COST COMPARISON
Category                            Fiber Deep 860   Fiber Deep 600   HFC
Headend/Hub Optronics                      $3               $3         $3
Field Optronics                            $6               $6         $6
Pow er Supplies w ith Pow er Coax          $1               $1         $2
Actives                                    $0               $0         $6
Passives                                   $7               $7         $7
Coax                                      $20              $20        $20
Hardw are                                  $0               $0         $0
Splice & Activate Coax                     $2               $2         $2
Turn up and Test                           $1               $1         $2
Project Mgmt & Design Engineering          $1               $1         $1
Taxes & Freight                            $1               $1         $2

Labor                                    $23              $23         $25
Material                                 $19              $19         $26
Cost Total                               $42              $42         $51
Saving                                   17%              18%
Network Comparison
                                     20,000 Home Example
Item                   Traditional     mFN                    Network Reliability

Power Supplies             60           19        100.000%

                                                   99.995%
RF Amplifiers             905            0
                                                   99.990%

                                                   99.985%
Optical Nodes              42           225
                                                   99.980%

                                                   99.975%
Total Active Devices     1,007          244
                                                   99.970%
                                                                Traditional    mFN
Active Per Mile            >4           <1


Cascaded RF
Amplifiers
                           5             0                   10 Year Operating Costs ($M)
                                                  $6.00
Network Reliability     99.98%        99.999%
                                                  $5.00

                                                  $4.00
Power Cost 10 Years     $762,260      $244,680
                                                  $3.00

Maintenance Cost 10                               $2.00
Years                  $4,693,333    $1,173,333
                                                  $1.00

                                                  $0.00
                                                              Traditional     mFN
Network Buildouts - Cable
                   30

                   25
Homes (Millions)




                   20

                   15

                   10

                    5

                    0
                        AT&T     AOL-TW   Comcast   Charter   Cox     Adel   Cblvsn   Rogers   Mcom   Insight   Classic

                                                2-Way Homes         Homes Not Upgraded                     Source: Kagan


                              Majority cable networks complete upgrade by EOY 2003.
                              Next network frontier is to establish scalable interconnection.
                              Intelligent optical networking technology will play important role
OUR
PERSPECTIVES
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS


 UK leads Europe and World in Digital
  Penetration
 US is more Focused on VOD and SVOD
 Europe Leads on ITV applications
     Interactive Voting, Gaming, Multiple Camera Angles,
      Theater Tickets
TRIPLE PLAY
        2010 Projections
50%
45%
40%                                  Triple Play and Double
35%                                   Play is Predominant in
30%
                                      Europe
25%
20%                                  UK is Projecting to be
15%                                   90% Double or Triple
10%                                   Play by 2010
 5%
 0%
          UK            Europe

      Triple   Double    Single
OUR FOCUS
   Financial Focus
       Can the operation generate enough cash to service the
        debt, cover ongoing capital needs and ultimately build
        equity
   Service Offering
       We Believe in the Triple Play
         • However, service mix is extremely situation dependent
             –   Capital structure
             –   Regulatory
             –   Competition
             –   Demographics and income


   Critical Technology Investment Timing
SERVICE APPROACH

 Digital Video
   Favor an open approach
   Precise investment that can be returned varies
   Low level interactivity and gaming is interesting
   SVOD also shows opportunity

 High Speed Data
   Favor converged platform based upon DOCSIS
   Huge Proponents of DOSCIS 2.0 capabilities
       • More Mbps per Line Card = Lower Cost Per Mbps and
         Lowe Cost Per line for VoIP
SERVICE APPROACH - cont


 Voice
   Favor a disruptive approach to voice
   VoIP as a transport
   Not a one for one match for ILEC
   Feature rich, i.e., web based features, whisper alerts,
    persistent voice applications
   Minimize powering exposure
   Flat rate billing
TECHNOLOGY TIMING

        Lead/manage
                                                  Migrate to
         innovation
                                                    next




                                                                       Capability
                  Standardize       Improve
                   /De facto       the scale
COST




      Technology platform is time dependent
          Time to lead, time to push standards, time to extend E-o-
           Scale.
Cardinal Consideration for
  Technology Investment

 Matching      capital investment to market
 potential
     150+ startups for cable @ $400M+/year burn-rate
     CMTS revenue < 30% CMTS vendors R&D spending
 VCand technology communities need to
 understand service companies’ business
 and operations
GLOBAL PESPECTIVES

   Communication Industry recovery relies on both the
    cost structure and revenue opportunities.
   We Strongly Believe in Cable Broadband Business
       Think That Europe and Asia Offer Some Attractive Opportunities
   Changing the nature of services and the dynamics of
    service delivery is key to expand the market and
    achieve economy of scale
   The Triple Play is a Powerful Offering, But
       Is situation dependent (e.g., infrastructure, legacy issues, etc)
       Needs additional fine tuning (ITV strategy, Voice strategy, HSD strategy)
   Technology deployment is time-critical

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Broadband Business Beyond Learning from the US

  • 1. Broadband Business beyond learning from the US Xiaolin Lu CEO Morning Forest, LLC xlu@morningforest.com February 26, 2004
  • 2. What is this all about?  China Cable Industry is being “unleashed” from government but still a “spoiled” baby in the cradle.  MBA does not help, but the street-smart might.  What and where is the business, and does it have to repeat everything US did?
  • 3. AGENDA  Business Environment: US Example  Video Business  High-speed Data Business  Voice Business  Networks  Our Perspectives
  • 4. 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 500 0 30-Jul-82 11-Feb-83 26-Aug-83 09-Mar-84 21-Sep-84 05-Apr-85 18-Oct-85 02-May-86 14-Nov-86 29-May-87 11-Dec-87 24-Jun-88 Doubles in 8 years 06-Jan-89 21-Jul-89 02-Feb-90 17-Aug-90 01-Mar-91 13-Sep-91 27-Mar-92 09-Oct-92 23-Apr-93 05-Nov-93 1983 - 2001 20-May-94 02-Dec-94 Doubles in 4 years 16-Jun-95 29-Dec-95 12-Jul-96 Doubles in 2 years 24-Jan-97 08-Aug-97 20-Feb-98 Doubles in 1 year 04-Sep-98 19-Mar-99 01-Oct-99 14-Apr-00 27-Oct-00 Moore’s Law of Nasdaq 12-Mar-01 Source: CSFB 20-Apr-01 31-May-01 11-Jul-2001
  • 5. The Present State of Telecom  Telecom was more tightly linked to the dot-com industry than most people realized  Unrealistic optimism set in everywhere  Disproportionate cost structure and revenue opportunity  Abundant available capital along with major shift of regulatory policy resulted in:  Fierce competition  Over capacity  “Innovative” practices fueled the fire:  Vendor financing, capacity swaps, round trips  Revenue = receivable + inventory
  • 7. COMMUNICATION IN US Long-Haul Metro Access “Unregulated” “Unregulated” Regulated or Semi-Regulated  AT&T  MSO  Worldcom  ILEC  Spring  CLEC  Qwest
  • 8. REGULATION AND BUSINESS VOICE DATA VIDEO  Communication  Information  Content Regulation Services Services Service  Title 2  Title 1  Title 6 Requirement  Open Pipe  None  Franchising Business  Selling Minutes  Flat rate  Flat rate + Usage
  • 9. THE RESIDENTIAL PIE - 2000 Cable Dominates ILECs Dominates Cable Leads Video Market Voice Market High-Speed Data Market Video Voice Data Cable ILECs Other Source: Paul Kagan Associates
  • 10. Ten Year Performance Improvement WAN Bandwidth 2 2000 Processor Power 2 1000 Router Engine Performance/Price 1 1000 Internet Traffic 2 1000 Bandwidth to Homes 3 13 Sources: 1. Business Communications Reviews, Sept. 1997 2. AT&T 3. Dataquest
  • 11. NETWORK TRAFFIC 1000 Voice 800 Data Traffic (Gb/s) 600 Total 400 200 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 K.G. Coffman and A. Odlyzko AT&T Labs
  • 12. LOOKING FORWARD: TRIPLE PLAY 2002 Data $28B Cable Voice ILEC Video  SDV  VoIP $75B $128B  VDSL  Standard based equipment  IP Infrastructure  OSS/BSS  New Services
  • 13. OPPORTUNITIES: TRIPLE PLAY  Create a customer destination  Reduce churn  Create differentiation  Build a common platform for innovation and gain economy of scale  Increase ARPU (Average Revenue Per Unit)  Offensively and defensively change the nature of services and products
  • 14. BUSINESS COMPARISON Comcast x Cox x Gehua Subscriber (M) 21.0 2.3 6.1 0.7 9.0 Revenue ($M) 8,079.0 169.0 5,038.6 105.4 47.8 Operation Cost ($M) 3,511.0 131.7 2,130.9 80.0 26.7 Gross Margin 57% 58% 44% EBITDA Margin 35% 35% 24% Revenue/Sub ($) 384.7 72.4 826.0 155.4 5.3 EBITDA/Sub ($) 134.9 79.0 291.7 170.7 1.7
  • 15. OPPORTUNITIES AND ISSUES US China Telephony: $25 HSD: $52.95 VOD& DVR: $9.95 HDTV: extra $5 Digital Tier $50.44, $60.44, $68.44, $78.99, $93.99 Ext Basic: $40.49 HSD: $15 Basic: $13.44 Basic: $2.5 US China Network/HHP $175 $175 CMTS/Sub $8 $35 CM/Sub $40 $100
  • 16. BUSINESS VALUATION US x China ARPU/month 57.34 3.8 15.00 Gross Margin 57% 44% EBITDA Margin 35% 1.5 24% Multiple 16 1.6 10 Value/Sub ($) 3,853.2 8.92 432.0 EBITDA/Sub 150.00 88.2 1.70 Debt/EBITDA 4 4 Debt/Sub 600.00 88.2 6.80
  • 17. KEY ISSUES Business Opportunities Operations Reality Regulatory Environment Cost Structure ( technology platform)
  • 18. VIDEO
  • 19. VIDEO: GOING DIGITAL! Total Households 110 111 100 106 100 90 Analog Only Houses 89 82 80 Total Digital Today 70 70 Digital Cable 60 59 50 45 40 36 Satellite Digital 30 30 25 22 20 Analog Only 10 5 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source = Kagan 2000 Databook
  • 20. DIGITAL CABLE SUBSCRIPTION 25 20 Cablevision Cox Million 15 Adelphia Charter 10 Comcast AOL TW AT&T 5 0 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 00 01 Source: UBS Warburg
  • 21. US CABLE DIGITAL PENETRATION 40 35 % of Basic Sub 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 00 01 02 Source: UBS Warburg
  • 22. VIDEO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Video Analog Terrestrial Analog Digital On Video Digital Video Video Services Services Services Services Demand Customer Server Premise Television Interactive Set-top Video Services Inband Gateway Conditional Access, Multiplexing, Modulation Internet Return Nodes Data Channel Application Servers Forward Interactive Data Hubs Back-Office Communication Channel Systems Servers Network Control Digital HFC Headend Network
  • 23. OPENCABLE ARCHITECTURE OCI-H1 Operations Security OCI-H2 Module(s) OCI-C2 Internet Content OCI-N OCI-C1 Video Headend Consumer Content Devices Other Content Supporting Hardware and Software OpenCable Device
  • 24. STRATEGIES Increase Subscription Rev$ Expand Non-TV Ad Market “Video” Pie Get Paid To Carry Content Transaction Revenue “Video” Growth Strategies Recapture DBS Subs Recapture Tape Rental Capture “Video” Share Get Ad Share From B’Cast Own The Content
  • 25. PRODUCT EVOLUTION ITV Digital Penetration HDTV Extended VOD/PVR VOD Digital Plus Digital Basic Time
  • 26. INTERACTIVE TV MARKET 40,000 35,000 30,000 Interenet TV 25,000 Direct Response $M Internet Portals 20,000 IPG 15,000 VOD 10,000 T-Comm 5,000 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Kagan
  • 27. WHAT’S CHANGED?  Revenue Projections Profit Loss • Advertising • T-Commerce • Walled Garden Fees  Services • Consumers Like • Consumers Will Pay for  Costs • Integration • Maintenance 1999 View 2002 View Revenue Cost
  • 28. There Still is a Model, it’s Just Different  Minimize Cost of Receiver • Small Footprint Implementations • Offload Processing to Proxy Servers for Low Cost Receivers • H2O for HTML / JavaScript on Very Low Cost Receivers • Minimize Code Size  Network Solutions • Balance Traffic Between In-band Push and out-of-Band Pull • Monitor Traffic and Performance  Maximize Integration with OSS and BSS • Minimum Infrastructure, Integration and Operation Costs • Evangelize Server Side Standardization • DVB, Cable Labs, BSS Vendors
  • 29. THE NEW FOCUS Focus on Services that Provide High Value to Consumer, but Low Cost to Provide:  Information, Weather, Stocks, Sports Scores  Enhanced TV, Player Stats, Multiple Camera Angles  Shopping on Shopping Channels  Games of Skill and Parlor Games  Voting  Communication Services Focus Must be Simple, Fast, and Remain TV Centric
  • 30. COMMUNICATIONS Multi-Platform Communications, Provides Interesting Opportunity: Messaging Voice Solutions - SMS - Unified Messaging - Voice Activated Dialing - Instant Messaging - Voice Controlled - Voice Mail Messaging
  • 31. SHORT MESSAGE SERVICE TV Based Messaging Sweden  75% of Mobile Users in Spain Europe Use SMS Italy  Currently, Over 12b SMS Messages are Sent Each France Month Germany  European Wireless Operators Generate 5%-15% of Their UK Revenues from SMS Services 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Current Likely Source: Forrester, January 2002
  • 32. FUTURE  Television on Demand  VoD, SVoD, Network and Local PVR  Convergence of Voice, Data and Television Offering  Beyond Digital TV Infrastructure • Roaming Between Digital TV and Other Networks (e.g. Cell Phone, Internet) • Universal Messaging, Single Sign-in, Digital Passport and Wallet • Extension to New Networks • Home Area Network, Car Information and Entertainment Systems  Beyond Entertainment • In-house Health Care, Distance Learning
  • 33. CRITICAL ISSUES  The ITV Model has Changed, but is Still Attractive • Revenue • Reduce Churn • Fits Well and can Promote Other Services • High Speed Data • Voice • Maintaining Simple, Fast, TV Centric Service is a Must • Cost Effective Hardware and Middleware is Required • Scale Platforms is Essential to Keep Costs Down and to Facilitate Application Development
  • 34. HIGH SPEED DATA
  • 35. Subscribers (M) Q 1- 19 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 Q 99 3- 19 Q 99 1- 20 Q 00 3- 20 Q 00 1- 20 Q 01 3- 20 Q 01 1- 20 Q 02 3- 20 Q 02 1- 20 Q 03 3- 20 Q 03 1- 20 Q 04 3- 20 Q 04 1- 20 Q 05 3- Global DOCSIS High Speed Data 20 Q 05 1- 20 Q 06 3- 20 Q 06 1- 20 Q 07 3- 20 07
  • 36. HIGH SPEED ACCESS North American 100 90 80 70 HP (Millions) 60 56 50 51 48 44 40 40 36 30 30 20 22 13 10 7 0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 Marketed Cable HSD HP Marketed DSL HP Other Subs Total HSD Subs Source: Kagan
  • 37. SPLIT THE PIE: 2001 US Only Other DSL 2% 32% Cable 66% Source: Kinetic Strategies
  • 38. CABLE MODEM SUBSCRIBER 12 10 Adelphia 8 Cablevision Million Charter 6 Cox Comcast 4 AT&T TW 2 0 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 00 01 Source: UBS Warburg
  • 39. Why is DOCSIS 2.0 Compelling  Can Reduce Overall Capital Investment of Upgrade  Even in Upgraded Plant, Larger Statistical Area is Superior Design  Reduces CMTS Cost Burden on HSD and VoIP  Amortize router blade across more customers  Plants are Achieving High Penetrations  How will they perform • Without filters • With Voice and other low latency services
  • 40. MARKET DYNAMICS OF DATA BUSINESS A Land Grab For 40 Million Existing Narrowband Subscribers 1994 2002 2007 $0.6 B $28 B $55 B Advertising Content 5.4 E-Commissions 15.4 0.24 7.9 0.6 15.7 0.32 13.9 19.8 4.1 $5.0B 57% Access 50% Cable 18% $9.9B 36% Cable 18%  Increasingly difficult to capture value merely with access fee  Key sources of future value in the data business  Advertising  Ability to close the transaction  Data business starts to look a lot like the video business
  • 41. IP INFRASTRUCTURE OSS Server Farm Managed HFC Network CMTS CM IP Network (DOCSIS) Many IP Technologies DOCSIS Standard  MPLS/VPN/BGP  Optical Networking  Advanced OSS/BSS Packet Cable Standard  Standard based end-to-end solution  Operation and scalability are the keys  New business model
  • 42. VOICE
  • 43. Voice Isn’t What It Used To Be… 1994 2002 2007 $93 B $149 B $170 B Residential Residential local LD 44.3 30.8 43.6 23.7 39.3 39.7 73.7 103 13.7 Total 15% 50% 60% Cellular  Cellular has already captured 50% of the value in a decade  Cellular has blurred the traditional residential-business segmentation  The residential wireline business is under significant pressure
  • 44. REDEFINE VOICE SERVICE Average Monthly Phone Bill: Constant $ Vertical Services CallerID, VoiceMail, Integration, etc. Price competition Access to voice Product Differentiation network (Local, Toll, LD, etc) Time VoIP  Low-cost bundled offering  Web based provisioning  Persistent voice Benefit to Consumer Benefit to Cable  Convenient  Differentiation  Lower cost  Customer retention  More service value  Additional revenue
  • 45. VoIP OVER CABLE NETWORK MTA CM CMS MS HFC Network CMTS (DOCSIS) Managed MGC IP Network MG PSTN MTA SS7 CM SG HFC Network CMTS (DOCSIS) OSS   TGS DHCP & DNS Server  TFTP or HTTP Farm  RKS  Provisioning CMS: Call Management server MGC: Media Gateway Controller MS: Media Server MG: Media Gateway SG: Signaling Gateway
  • 46. CABLE TELEPHONY SUBSCRIBER 2.5 2 Million 1.5 Cablevision Cox 1 AT&T 0.5 0 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 00 01 Source: UBS Warburg
  • 49. PacketCable VoIP Solution CMS E-MTA DOCSIS 1.1 GATE HFC Ctrl Network E-MTA Announcement CMTS Server CMTS Managed IP Announcement Controller DOCSIS 1.1 Network Announcement HFC Network Player Media Gateway Controller GR-303 Media PSTN DNS RKS TFTP V5.2 Gateway Gateway OSS Functions: Gateway Signaling Provisioning, Gateway Security, SYSLOG DHCP TOD Record Keeping PSTN SNMP KDC LDS
  • 50. EVOLUTION Broadband Full Service Platform DOCSIS Open Cable Packet Cable  High speed  Universal set  End-to- End-to-end IP cable modem top box platform UPGRADE  DWDM  Capacity  RF  Quality  DSP  Reliability
  • 52. IN THE PAST ... Voice = Communication Video = Entertainment LEC Cable  Twist Pair Star  Coax Tree-and-Branch  Feature rich POTS  Broadcast video  $84B “toll collection”  $24B “$1 buffet”  Monopoly  Voice-oriented  DLC, ISDN  FTTH
  • 53. PERSPECTIVES Network  Connectivity Service  Communication  Resource Sharing  Entertainment  Convergence Media Topology Control  Copper  Star  Central Mind-Set  Coax  Bus  Distributed  Bell-Head  Fiber  Ring  Self  Net-Head  Radio  “Cable Guy”
  • 54. CHANGING PERSPECTIVES Bell- Bell-Centric Mosaic Network  RF Modem  Standard based  “Proprietary”  DSP Performance  Capacity  Fiber Optics  Service enabler  Circuit Applications  Bandwidth  Internet  Broadband  Feature- Feature-rich  Multimedia  Service Package Voice Router performance   Network enabled or  Connection  LAN extension independent Business  Telecom Reform  Market maturity &  Competition  Monopoly growth
  • 55. OPTIONS LEC  Narrowband  Switched  DLC  Rebuild Wireless  Mobility FTTH  Broadband Cable  Network Upgrade Deep Fiber  Broadband  Broadcast  Cable modem Penetration
  • 56. CHALLENGES HE FN HE FN HE FN Analog Emerging TV Services 5 50 500 750 1G  Bandwidth Capacity: 5-40MHz/1000s HHP upstream  Transport Integrity: Ingress noise, dynamic range  103-to-1 Architecture: Centrally-mediated MAC
  • 57. SOLUTIONS Bandwidth UPGRADE Capacity  Fiber Node Network Segmentation  DWDM Trunk Transport Integrity DOCSIS  High level modulation Modem  Centrally- 103-to-1 mediated MAC Architecture
  • 58. Fiber Node Segmentation HE FN 1,200 Homes  Long cascade coax bus shared by many users (1000s)
  • 59. Fiber Node Segmentation 300 Homes 300 Homes HE FN 300 Homes 300 Homes  1,200 HHP/FN with 300 HHP/Bus
  • 60. DISTRIBUTED HEAD-END HEAD- HE FN Primary Primary Hub HE Ring FN HE  Operation complexity  Cost of CMTS at lower take rate
  • 61. CMTS SCALABILITY ADC Arris Cisco Motorola Juniper Terayon 850 Minimum Medium Maximum  Chassis-based CMTS has 750 the most advanced 650 features & can simplify the metro routing architecture 550 $$/Mbps 450  Desired configuration favor centralized approach 350 250 150 2 LCs Chassis Rack 80-400Mbps 400-1600Mbps 1200-3840Mbps * Cost is calculated based on combined upstream and downstream capacity, and core-redundancy configuration
  • 62. DWDM TRUNK SH FN Primary Primary Hub SH Ring FN SH  DWDM transport for end-to-end transparency  Route diversity for service protection  Consolidate high-end terminals (CMTS)
  • 63. DWDM TRUNK Primary Hub Secondary Hub 1.3mm XTR Coarse WDM l 1 x 8 DWDM 1 x 8 DWDM l l . . . . . . Fiber Node 1.5mm RCV RCV l 1 x 8 DWDM 1 x 8 DWDM RCV l RCV . . . . . .
  • 64. TRADITIONAL HFC INTERCONNECTION 64 SYSTEM HEADENDS 4 PRIMARY HUBS 0 SECONDARY HUBS
  • 65. SECONDARY RING HFC INTERCONNECT 2 MASTER HEADENDS 9 PRIMARY HUBS 56 SECONDARY HUBS
  • 66. MODERN HFC NETWORK SH FN Primary Primary Hub SH Ring SH FN DWDM Transport Segmentation End-to-end Transparency 4X capacity
  • 67. ARCHITECTURES Tree-and-Branch  Broadcast FN  Cascaded ??? Cell-Based  Narrowcast RN  Clustered
  • 68. FIBER OPTICS ? Node 2,000+HP 1,200HP 600HP 200HP 100HP Size HOW Deep ? HOW To ?
  • 69. EVOLUTION Demand Bandwidth per Customer Take Rate Applications User Behavior Push Fiber Deeper Split Nodes Higher RF Efficiency Time
  • 70. Fiber Optics for Cable 108 FTTH 107 FTTC (102 HP/node) 106 Fiber termination 105 FSA (103 HP/node) 100 ch AM 104 103 102 40 ch AM 86 92 00 06 Broadcast Two-way Broadband
  • 71. mFN SH mFN mFN PH CMTS SH S mFN mFN SH  mFNs replace all coax amplifiers XTR XTR XTR  Less active components  More bandwidth and flexibility WDM PON  Deep fiber penetration with cell structure  Optical add/drop to daisy chain mFNs  Reduced fiber management & labor  Provisioning for growth  Distributed processing at mFN
  • 72. ADVANTAGES  Operation Savings  61% reduction in active components  Reduced power consumption  Simplification of maintenance  Improved Performance  Reduced ingress noise funneling (10-48MHz operation)  Increased RF bandwidth  Improved reliability  Future Proof  Flexibility between current track and future opportunities  Improved QoS and further cost reduction
  • 73. OPERATION SAVINGS  Current Network: 5.5 actives/mile
  • 74. OPERATION SAVINGS  61% reduction in active components  21+% improvement in reliability
  • 75. COST COMPARISON Category Fiber Deep 860 Fiber Deep 600 HFC Headend/Hub Optronics $3 $3 $3 Field Optronics $6 $6 $6 Pow er Supplies w ith Pow er Coax $1 $1 $2 Actives $0 $0 $6 Passives $7 $7 $7 Coax $20 $20 $20 Hardw are $0 $0 $0 Splice & Activate Coax $2 $2 $2 Turn up and Test $1 $1 $2 Project Mgmt & Design Engineering $1 $1 $1 Taxes & Freight $1 $1 $2 Labor $23 $23 $25 Material $19 $19 $26 Cost Total $42 $42 $51 Saving 17% 18%
  • 76. Network Comparison 20,000 Home Example Item Traditional mFN Network Reliability Power Supplies 60 19 100.000% 99.995% RF Amplifiers 905 0 99.990% 99.985% Optical Nodes 42 225 99.980% 99.975% Total Active Devices 1,007 244 99.970% Traditional mFN Active Per Mile >4 <1 Cascaded RF Amplifiers 5 0 10 Year Operating Costs ($M) $6.00 Network Reliability 99.98% 99.999% $5.00 $4.00 Power Cost 10 Years $762,260 $244,680 $3.00 Maintenance Cost 10 $2.00 Years $4,693,333 $1,173,333 $1.00 $0.00 Traditional mFN
  • 77. Network Buildouts - Cable 30 25 Homes (Millions) 20 15 10 5 0 AT&T AOL-TW Comcast Charter Cox Adel Cblvsn Rogers Mcom Insight Classic 2-Way Homes Homes Not Upgraded Source: Kagan  Majority cable networks complete upgrade by EOY 2003.  Next network frontier is to establish scalable interconnection.  Intelligent optical networking technology will play important role
  • 79. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS  UK leads Europe and World in Digital Penetration  US is more Focused on VOD and SVOD  Europe Leads on ITV applications  Interactive Voting, Gaming, Multiple Camera Angles, Theater Tickets
  • 80. TRIPLE PLAY 2010 Projections 50% 45% 40%  Triple Play and Double 35% Play is Predominant in 30% Europe 25% 20%  UK is Projecting to be 15% 90% Double or Triple 10% Play by 2010 5% 0% UK Europe Triple Double Single
  • 81. OUR FOCUS  Financial Focus  Can the operation generate enough cash to service the debt, cover ongoing capital needs and ultimately build equity  Service Offering  We Believe in the Triple Play • However, service mix is extremely situation dependent – Capital structure – Regulatory – Competition – Demographics and income  Critical Technology Investment Timing
  • 82. SERVICE APPROACH  Digital Video  Favor an open approach  Precise investment that can be returned varies  Low level interactivity and gaming is interesting  SVOD also shows opportunity  High Speed Data  Favor converged platform based upon DOCSIS  Huge Proponents of DOSCIS 2.0 capabilities • More Mbps per Line Card = Lower Cost Per Mbps and Lowe Cost Per line for VoIP
  • 83. SERVICE APPROACH - cont  Voice  Favor a disruptive approach to voice  VoIP as a transport  Not a one for one match for ILEC  Feature rich, i.e., web based features, whisper alerts, persistent voice applications  Minimize powering exposure  Flat rate billing
  • 84. TECHNOLOGY TIMING Lead/manage Migrate to innovation next Capability Standardize Improve /De facto the scale COST  Technology platform is time dependent  Time to lead, time to push standards, time to extend E-o- Scale.
  • 85. Cardinal Consideration for Technology Investment  Matching capital investment to market potential  150+ startups for cable @ $400M+/year burn-rate  CMTS revenue < 30% CMTS vendors R&D spending  VCand technology communities need to understand service companies’ business and operations
  • 86. GLOBAL PESPECTIVES  Communication Industry recovery relies on both the cost structure and revenue opportunities.  We Strongly Believe in Cable Broadband Business  Think That Europe and Asia Offer Some Attractive Opportunities  Changing the nature of services and the dynamics of service delivery is key to expand the market and achieve economy of scale  The Triple Play is a Powerful Offering, But  Is situation dependent (e.g., infrastructure, legacy issues, etc)  Needs additional fine tuning (ITV strategy, Voice strategy, HSD strategy)  Technology deployment is time-critical

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. The loss of telecom after the bust is much more than the loss of Dot-com, in terms of company/industry market value Some major telecom’s network was built such that it is only 20-30% utilized today The regulation of unbundled loop and unrealistic of being able to re-build the access network heat up unrealistic competition.
  2. But DBS has proven to be a formidable competitor Digital cable is behind, but is closing the gap The race to capture (and hold) digital subscribers is in full swing. (Could say something about getting to 100% digital to protect cable’s core video business. Is this a forecast? Do we want to say that?)
  3. In fact, there are even more opportunities in the “Video” space than at first meet the eye Not only can MSOs capture share in the current space… But they can also expand the pie in areas such as: Non-TV Advertising market…for example: Shifting advertiser “Direct Marketing” dollars from catalog, direct mail, telemarketing, etc. to E-TV Shifting share from print and other media, etc. Getting paid to carry content: Something like the pay-me-up-front syndication business on TV Transactions Developing the applications to “close the sale” in real-time with TV advertising and getting paid a nice commission for doing it.
  4. Advertising &amp; Content are the drivers of growth To capture that value, Content owners &amp; Advertisers must have access to subscribers Access is the leverage of Distribution players Land grab for 40 million narrowband subs now underway Cable is winning the land grab vs DSL
  5. CMS: typically performs call administration and connection functions. It may use SIP to do that in pure IP environment. It is also the place that end-to-end QoS insurance would be performed, including QoS mapping between different segments of networks. It would interact with CMTS and also router in the IP cloud. In most cases, call feature will be supported here too, but some times they are in independent, so-called Application Server (not in the picture). MG: This is the place that IP network and PSTN network interact and conversion is performed, including negotiation of the use of codec, echo cancellation,etc MGC: The control function for MG. Sometimes it is part of the MG, most cases it is stand alone and control multiple MG, therefore realizing a distributed architecture. It talks to MG using H.248, H.323, or others. Packet Cable uses TGCP SG: this is the gateway that talk to SS7 network and perform signaling conversion between SS7 and IP network. In Europe, Sigtran is used. Packet Cable uses ISTP MS: usually include Announcement Server and controller. RKS is the Record Keeping Server. All these are function blocks. Generally speaking, IP connection (DHCP, DNS, etc), Call Administration and Connection, Voice Application (including announcement), Interconnection to PSTN and its control, and Back office are the main functions that support a call. In real implementation, this is done using either centralized or distributed methods, or the combination, by different vendors. They may also be functionally separated but physically collocated. To add more confusion, both CMS and MGC are called Softswitch, depends who we talk to. At very high-level, one could think they are the same: performing call administration and connection establishment (not physical switch, but signaling for terminal-to-terminal connection, including the procedure agreements), except that MGC is specifically for interacting with PSTN. Namely, without PSTN, one only need CMS, or vice versa, or just a single piece.
  6. Cellular has already captured 50% of the value in a decade Cellular has blurred the traditional Residential – Business segmentation The residential wireline business is under significant pressure
  7. CMS: typically performs call administration and connection functions. It may use SIP to do that in pure IP environment. It is also the place that end-to-end QoS insurance would be performed, including QoS mapping between different segments of networks. It would interact with CMTS and also router in the IP cloud. In most cases, call feature will be supported here too, but some times they are in independent, so-called Application Server (not in the picture). MG: This is the place that IP network and PSTN network interact and conversion is performed, including negotiation of the use of codec, echo cancellation,etc MGC: The control function for MG. Sometimes it is part of the MG, most cases it is stand alone and control multiple MG, therefore realizing a distributed architecture. It talks to MG using H.248, H.323, or others. Packet Cable uses TGCP SG: this is the gateway that talk to SS7 network and perform signaling conversion between SS7 and IP network. In Europe, Sigtran is used. Packet Cable uses ISTP MS: usually include Announcement Server and controller. RKS is the Record Keeping Server. All these are function blocks. Generally speaking, IP connection (DHCP, DNS, etc), Call Administration and Connection, Voice Application (including announcement), Interconnection to PSTN and its control, and Back office are the main functions that support a call. In real implementation, this is done using either centralized or distributed methods, or the combination, by different vendors. They may also be functionally separated but physically collocated. To add more confusion, both CMS and MGC are called Softswitch, depends who we talk to. At very high-level, one could think they are the same: performing call administration and connection establishment (not physical switch, but signaling for terminal-to-terminal connection, including the procedure agreements), except that MGC is specifically for interacting with PSTN. Namely, without PSTN, one only need CMS, or vice versa, or just a single piece.
  8. Chicagoland 1 master and 1 backup headend 1 off-air receive site (Sears Tower) 8 primary hubs 2 distribution hubs 1 newly acquired headend (will become primary hub)
  9. Most of US MSO complete its network upgrade Pressure from Wall street together with non-incentive to further upgrade network make it unlikely for cable industry to embrace any new “last-mile” technology (e.g., FTTH, etc) The next opportunity for network and optical technology is in the inter-networking, especially the one that can support multiple services and is also backward compatible.