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Broadband Business Beyond Learning from the US
1. Broadband Business
beyond learning from the US
Xiaolin Lu
CEO
Morning Forest, LLC
xlu@morningforest.com
February 26, 2004
2. What is this all about?
China Cable Industry is being “unleashed” from
government but still a “spoiled” baby in the cradle.
MBA does not help, but the street-smart might.
What and where is the business, and does it have
to repeat everything US did?
3. AGENDA
Business Environment: US Example
Video Business
High-speed Data Business
Voice Business
Networks
Our Perspectives
4. 1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
500
0
30-Jul-82
11-Feb-83
26-Aug-83
09-Mar-84
21-Sep-84
05-Apr-85
18-Oct-85
02-May-86
14-Nov-86
29-May-87
11-Dec-87
24-Jun-88
Doubles in 8 years
06-Jan-89
21-Jul-89
02-Feb-90
17-Aug-90
01-Mar-91
13-Sep-91
27-Mar-92
09-Oct-92
23-Apr-93
05-Nov-93
1983 - 2001
20-May-94
02-Dec-94
Doubles in 4 years
16-Jun-95
29-Dec-95
12-Jul-96
Doubles in 2 years
24-Jan-97
08-Aug-97
20-Feb-98
Doubles in 1 year
04-Sep-98
19-Mar-99
01-Oct-99
14-Apr-00
27-Oct-00
Moore’s Law of Nasdaq
12-Mar-01
Source: CSFB
20-Apr-01
31-May-01
11-Jul-2001
5. The Present State of Telecom
Telecom was more tightly linked to the dot-com
industry than most people realized
Unrealistic optimism set in everywhere
Disproportionate cost structure and revenue opportunity
Abundant available capital along with major shift
of regulatory policy resulted in:
Fierce competition
Over capacity
“Innovative” practices fueled the fire:
Vendor financing, capacity swaps, round trips
Revenue = receivable + inventory
7. COMMUNICATION IN US
Long-Haul Metro Access
“Unregulated” “Unregulated” Regulated or
Semi-Regulated
AT&T MSO
Worldcom ILEC
Spring CLEC
Qwest
8. REGULATION AND BUSINESS
VOICE DATA VIDEO
Communication Information Content
Regulation Services Services Service
Title 2 Title 1 Title 6
Requirement Open Pipe None Franchising
Business Selling Minutes Flat rate Flat rate
+ Usage
9. THE RESIDENTIAL PIE - 2000
Cable Dominates ILECs Dominates Cable Leads
Video Market Voice Market High-Speed Data
Market
Video Voice Data
Cable ILECs Other
Source: Paul Kagan Associates
10. Ten Year Performance
Improvement
WAN Bandwidth 2 2000
Processor Power 2 1000
Router Engine Performance/Price 1 1000
Internet Traffic 2 1000
Bandwidth to Homes 3 13
Sources: 1. Business Communications Reviews, Sept. 1997
2. AT&T
3. Dataquest
11. NETWORK TRAFFIC
1000
Voice
800
Data
Traffic (Gb/s)
600 Total
400
200
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
K.G. Coffman and A. Odlyzko
AT&T Labs
12. LOOKING FORWARD: TRIPLE PLAY
2002
Data
$28B
Cable Voice
ILEC
Video
SDV
VoIP $75B $128B
VDSL
Standard based equipment
IP Infrastructure
OSS/BSS
New Services
13. OPPORTUNITIES: TRIPLE PLAY
Create a customer destination
Reduce churn
Create differentiation
Build a common platform for innovation and
gain economy of scale
Increase ARPU (Average Revenue Per Unit)
Offensively and defensively change the nature
of services and products
21. US CABLE DIGITAL PENETRATION
40
35
% of Basic Sub
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
00 01 02
Source: UBS Warburg
22. VIDEO DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM
Video
Analog Terrestrial Analog Digital
On
Video Digital Video Video
Services Services Services Services
Demand Customer
Server
Premise
Television
Interactive
Set-top
Video Services
Inband
Gateway
Conditional Access,
Multiplexing,
Modulation
Internet Return Nodes
Data
Channel
Application
Servers
Forward
Interactive Data Hubs
Back-Office Communication Channel
Systems Servers
Network
Control Digital HFC
Headend Network
23. OPENCABLE ARCHITECTURE
OCI-H1 Operations
Security
OCI-H2 Module(s) OCI-C2
Internet
Content OCI-N OCI-C1
Video Headend Consumer
Content Devices
Other
Content
Supporting
Hardware
and Software
OpenCable Device
24. STRATEGIES
Increase Subscription Rev$
Expand
Non-TV Ad Market
“Video”
Pie
Get Paid To Carry Content
Transaction Revenue
“Video”
Growth
Strategies Recapture DBS Subs
Recapture Tape Rental
Capture
“Video”
Share Get Ad Share From B’Cast
Own The Content
25. PRODUCT EVOLUTION
ITV
Digital Penetration
HDTV
Extended VOD/PVR
VOD
Digital Plus
Digital Basic
Time
26. INTERACTIVE TV MARKET
40,000
35,000
30,000 Interenet TV
25,000 Direct Response
$M
Internet Portals
20,000
IPG
15,000 VOD
10,000 T-Comm
5,000
0
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Source: Kagan
27. WHAT’S CHANGED?
Revenue Projections
Profit Loss
• Advertising
• T-Commerce
• Walled Garden Fees
Services
• Consumers Like
• Consumers Will Pay for
Costs
• Integration
• Maintenance 1999 View 2002 View
Revenue Cost
28. There Still is a Model, it’s Just Different
Minimize Cost of Receiver
• Small Footprint Implementations
• Offload Processing to Proxy Servers for Low Cost Receivers
• H2O for HTML / JavaScript on Very Low Cost Receivers
• Minimize Code Size
Network Solutions
• Balance Traffic Between In-band Push and out-of-Band Pull
• Monitor Traffic and Performance
Maximize Integration with OSS and BSS
• Minimum Infrastructure, Integration and Operation Costs
• Evangelize Server Side Standardization
• DVB, Cable Labs, BSS Vendors
29. THE NEW FOCUS
Focus on Services that Provide High Value to Consumer,
but Low Cost to Provide:
Information, Weather, Stocks, Sports Scores
Enhanced TV, Player Stats, Multiple Camera Angles
Shopping on Shopping Channels
Games of Skill and Parlor Games
Voting
Communication Services
Focus Must be Simple, Fast, and Remain TV Centric
31. SHORT MESSAGE SERVICE
TV Based Messaging
Sweden
75% of Mobile Users in Spain
Europe Use SMS
Italy
Currently, Over 12b SMS
Messages are Sent Each France
Month
Germany
European Wireless Operators
Generate 5%-15% of Their UK
Revenues from SMS Services
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Current Likely
Source: Forrester, January 2002
32. FUTURE
Television on Demand
VoD, SVoD, Network and Local PVR
Convergence of Voice, Data and Television Offering
Beyond Digital TV Infrastructure
• Roaming Between Digital TV and Other Networks (e.g. Cell
Phone, Internet)
• Universal Messaging, Single Sign-in, Digital Passport and Wallet
• Extension to New Networks
• Home Area Network, Car Information and Entertainment Systems
Beyond Entertainment
• In-house Health Care, Distance Learning
33. CRITICAL ISSUES
The ITV Model has Changed, but is Still Attractive
• Revenue
• Reduce Churn
• Fits Well and can Promote Other Services
• High Speed Data
• Voice
• Maintaining Simple, Fast, TV Centric Service is a Must
• Cost Effective Hardware and Middleware is Required
• Scale Platforms is Essential to Keep Costs Down and to
Facilitate Application Development
39. Why is DOCSIS 2.0 Compelling
Can Reduce Overall Capital Investment of
Upgrade
Even in Upgraded Plant, Larger Statistical
Area is Superior Design
Reduces CMTS Cost Burden on HSD and
VoIP
Amortize router blade across more customers
Plants are Achieving High Penetrations
How will they perform
• Without filters
• With Voice and other low latency services
40. MARKET DYNAMICS OF DATA BUSINESS
A Land Grab For 40 Million Existing Narrowband Subscribers
1994 2002 2007
$0.6 B $28 B $55 B
Advertising
Content 5.4
E-Commissions
15.4
0.24 7.9 0.6 15.7
0.32 13.9 19.8 4.1
$5.0B
57% Access 50% Cable
18% $9.9B
36% Cable
18%
Increasingly difficult to capture value merely with access fee
Key sources of future value in the data business
Advertising
Ability to close the transaction
Data business starts to look a lot like the video business
41. IP INFRASTRUCTURE
OSS
Server
Farm Managed HFC Network
CMTS CM
IP Network (DOCSIS)
Many IP Technologies DOCSIS Standard
MPLS/VPN/BGP
Optical Networking
Advanced OSS/BSS
Packet Cable Standard
Standard based end-to-end solution
Operation and scalability are the keys
New business model
43. Voice Isn’t What It Used To Be…
1994 2002 2007
$93 B $149 B $170 B
Residential Residential
local LD
44.3 30.8 43.6 23.7
39.3 39.7
73.7
103
13.7
Total 15% 50% 60%
Cellular
Cellular has already captured 50% of the value in a decade
Cellular has blurred the traditional residential-business segmentation
The residential wireline business is under significant pressure
44. REDEFINE VOICE SERVICE
Average Monthly Phone Bill: Constant
$
Vertical Services
CallerID, VoiceMail,
Integration, etc.
Price competition Access to voice Product Differentiation
network (Local,
Toll, LD, etc)
Time
VoIP
Low-cost bundled offering
Web based provisioning
Persistent voice
Benefit to Consumer Benefit to Cable
Convenient Differentiation
Lower cost Customer retention
More service value Additional revenue
45. VoIP OVER CABLE NETWORK
MTA CM CMS
MS
HFC Network CMTS
(DOCSIS)
Managed MGC
IP Network MG PSTN
MTA
SS7
CM
SG
HFC Network
CMTS
(DOCSIS)
OSS
TGS
DHCP & DNS
Server TFTP or HTTP
Farm RKS
Provisioning
CMS: Call Management server MGC: Media Gateway Controller
MS: Media Server MG: Media Gateway
SG: Signaling Gateway
52. IN THE PAST ...
Voice = Communication Video = Entertainment
LEC Cable
Twist Pair Star Coax Tree-and-Branch
Feature rich POTS Broadcast video
$84B “toll collection” $24B “$1 buffet”
Monopoly
Voice-oriented
DLC, ISDN
FTTH
53. PERSPECTIVES
Network
Connectivity Service
Communication
Resource Sharing
Entertainment
Convergence
Media Topology Control
Copper Star Central Mind-Set
Coax Bus Distributed Bell-Head
Fiber Ring Self Net-Head
Radio “Cable Guy”
54. CHANGING PERSPECTIVES
Bell-
Bell-Centric Mosaic
Network RF Modem Standard based
“Proprietary” DSP Performance Capacity
Fiber Optics Service enabler
Circuit
Applications Bandwidth
Internet Broadband
Feature-
Feature-rich Multimedia Service Package
Voice Router performance
Network enabled or
Connection LAN extension
independent
Business Telecom Reform
Market maturity & Competition
Monopoly
growth
56. CHALLENGES
HE FN
HE FN
HE
FN
Analog Emerging
TV Services
5 50 500 750 1G
Bandwidth Capacity: 5-40MHz/1000s HHP upstream
Transport Integrity: Ingress noise, dynamic range
103-to-1 Architecture: Centrally-mediated MAC
57. SOLUTIONS
Bandwidth UPGRADE
Capacity Fiber Node
Network
Segmentation
DWDM Trunk
Transport
Integrity DOCSIS
High level
modulation Modem
Centrally-
103-to-1 mediated MAC
Architecture
59. Fiber Node Segmentation
300 Homes 300 Homes
HE FN
300 Homes 300 Homes
1,200 HHP/FN with 300 HHP/Bus
60. DISTRIBUTED HEAD-END
HEAD-
HE
FN
Primary Primary
Hub
HE
Ring
FN
HE
Operation complexity
Cost of CMTS at lower take rate
61. CMTS SCALABILITY
ADC Arris Cisco
Motorola Juniper Terayon
850
Minimum Medium Maximum
Chassis-based CMTS has 750
the most advanced 650
features & can simplify the
metro routing architecture 550
$$/Mbps
450
Desired configuration favor
centralized approach 350
250
150
2 LCs Chassis Rack
80-400Mbps 400-1600Mbps 1200-3840Mbps
* Cost is calculated based on combined upstream and
downstream capacity, and core-redundancy
configuration
62. DWDM TRUNK
SH
FN
Primary Primary
Hub
SH
Ring
FN
SH
DWDM transport for end-to-end transparency
Route diversity for service protection
Consolidate high-end terminals (CMTS)
63. DWDM TRUNK
Primary Hub Secondary Hub
1.3mm
XTR
Coarse
WDM
l
1 x 8 DWDM
1 x 8 DWDM
l
l
. .
.
.
. . Fiber Node
1.5mm RCV
RCV l
1 x 8 DWDM
1 x 8 DWDM
RCV l
RCV
.
. .
.
. .
71. mFN
SH
mFN mFN
PH
CMTS SH S
mFN mFN
SH
mFNs replace all coax amplifiers XTR XTR XTR
Less active components
More bandwidth and flexibility WDM PON
Deep fiber penetration with cell structure
Optical add/drop to daisy chain mFNs
Reduced fiber management & labor
Provisioning for growth
Distributed processing at mFN
72. ADVANTAGES
Operation Savings
61% reduction in active components
Reduced power consumption
Simplification of maintenance
Improved Performance
Reduced ingress noise funneling (10-48MHz operation)
Increased RF bandwidth
Improved reliability
Future Proof
Flexibility between current track and future opportunities
Improved QoS and further cost reduction
74. OPERATION SAVINGS
61% reduction in active components
21+% improvement in reliability
75. COST COMPARISON
Category Fiber Deep 860 Fiber Deep 600 HFC
Headend/Hub Optronics $3 $3 $3
Field Optronics $6 $6 $6
Pow er Supplies w ith Pow er Coax $1 $1 $2
Actives $0 $0 $6
Passives $7 $7 $7
Coax $20 $20 $20
Hardw are $0 $0 $0
Splice & Activate Coax $2 $2 $2
Turn up and Test $1 $1 $2
Project Mgmt & Design Engineering $1 $1 $1
Taxes & Freight $1 $1 $2
Labor $23 $23 $25
Material $19 $19 $26
Cost Total $42 $42 $51
Saving 17% 18%
76. Network Comparison
20,000 Home Example
Item Traditional mFN Network Reliability
Power Supplies 60 19 100.000%
99.995%
RF Amplifiers 905 0
99.990%
99.985%
Optical Nodes 42 225
99.980%
99.975%
Total Active Devices 1,007 244
99.970%
Traditional mFN
Active Per Mile >4 <1
Cascaded RF
Amplifiers
5 0 10 Year Operating Costs ($M)
$6.00
Network Reliability 99.98% 99.999%
$5.00
$4.00
Power Cost 10 Years $762,260 $244,680
$3.00
Maintenance Cost 10 $2.00
Years $4,693,333 $1,173,333
$1.00
$0.00
Traditional mFN
77. Network Buildouts - Cable
30
25
Homes (Millions)
20
15
10
5
0
AT&T AOL-TW Comcast Charter Cox Adel Cblvsn Rogers Mcom Insight Classic
2-Way Homes Homes Not Upgraded Source: Kagan
Majority cable networks complete upgrade by EOY 2003.
Next network frontier is to establish scalable interconnection.
Intelligent optical networking technology will play important role
79. GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
UK leads Europe and World in Digital
Penetration
US is more Focused on VOD and SVOD
Europe Leads on ITV applications
Interactive Voting, Gaming, Multiple Camera Angles,
Theater Tickets
80. TRIPLE PLAY
2010 Projections
50%
45%
40% Triple Play and Double
35% Play is Predominant in
30%
Europe
25%
20% UK is Projecting to be
15% 90% Double or Triple
10% Play by 2010
5%
0%
UK Europe
Triple Double Single
81. OUR FOCUS
Financial Focus
Can the operation generate enough cash to service the
debt, cover ongoing capital needs and ultimately build
equity
Service Offering
We Believe in the Triple Play
• However, service mix is extremely situation dependent
– Capital structure
– Regulatory
– Competition
– Demographics and income
Critical Technology Investment Timing
82. SERVICE APPROACH
Digital Video
Favor an open approach
Precise investment that can be returned varies
Low level interactivity and gaming is interesting
SVOD also shows opportunity
High Speed Data
Favor converged platform based upon DOCSIS
Huge Proponents of DOSCIS 2.0 capabilities
• More Mbps per Line Card = Lower Cost Per Mbps and
Lowe Cost Per line for VoIP
83. SERVICE APPROACH - cont
Voice
Favor a disruptive approach to voice
VoIP as a transport
Not a one for one match for ILEC
Feature rich, i.e., web based features, whisper alerts,
persistent voice applications
Minimize powering exposure
Flat rate billing
84. TECHNOLOGY TIMING
Lead/manage
Migrate to
innovation
next
Capability
Standardize Improve
/De facto the scale
COST
Technology platform is time dependent
Time to lead, time to push standards, time to extend E-o-
Scale.
85. Cardinal Consideration for
Technology Investment
Matching capital investment to market
potential
150+ startups for cable @ $400M+/year burn-rate
CMTS revenue < 30% CMTS vendors R&D spending
VCand technology communities need to
understand service companies’ business
and operations
86. GLOBAL PESPECTIVES
Communication Industry recovery relies on both the
cost structure and revenue opportunities.
We Strongly Believe in Cable Broadband Business
Think That Europe and Asia Offer Some Attractive Opportunities
Changing the nature of services and the dynamics of
service delivery is key to expand the market and
achieve economy of scale
The Triple Play is a Powerful Offering, But
Is situation dependent (e.g., infrastructure, legacy issues, etc)
Needs additional fine tuning (ITV strategy, Voice strategy, HSD strategy)
Technology deployment is time-critical
Notes de l'éditeur
The loss of telecom after the bust is much more than the loss of Dot-com, in terms of company/industry market value Some major telecom’s network was built such that it is only 20-30% utilized today The regulation of unbundled loop and unrealistic of being able to re-build the access network heat up unrealistic competition.
But DBS has proven to be a formidable competitor Digital cable is behind, but is closing the gap The race to capture (and hold) digital subscribers is in full swing. (Could say something about getting to 100% digital to protect cable’s core video business. Is this a forecast? Do we want to say that?)
In fact, there are even more opportunities in the “Video” space than at first meet the eye Not only can MSOs capture share in the current space… But they can also expand the pie in areas such as: Non-TV Advertising market…for example: Shifting advertiser “Direct Marketing” dollars from catalog, direct mail, telemarketing, etc. to E-TV Shifting share from print and other media, etc. Getting paid to carry content: Something like the pay-me-up-front syndication business on TV Transactions Developing the applications to “close the sale” in real-time with TV advertising and getting paid a nice commission for doing it.
Advertising & Content are the drivers of growth To capture that value, Content owners & Advertisers must have access to subscribers Access is the leverage of Distribution players Land grab for 40 million narrowband subs now underway Cable is winning the land grab vs DSL
CMS: typically performs call administration and connection functions. It may use SIP to do that in pure IP environment. It is also the place that end-to-end QoS insurance would be performed, including QoS mapping between different segments of networks. It would interact with CMTS and also router in the IP cloud. In most cases, call feature will be supported here too, but some times they are in independent, so-called Application Server (not in the picture). MG: This is the place that IP network and PSTN network interact and conversion is performed, including negotiation of the use of codec, echo cancellation,etc MGC: The control function for MG. Sometimes it is part of the MG, most cases it is stand alone and control multiple MG, therefore realizing a distributed architecture. It talks to MG using H.248, H.323, or others. Packet Cable uses TGCP SG: this is the gateway that talk to SS7 network and perform signaling conversion between SS7 and IP network. In Europe, Sigtran is used. Packet Cable uses ISTP MS: usually include Announcement Server and controller. RKS is the Record Keeping Server. All these are function blocks. Generally speaking, IP connection (DHCP, DNS, etc), Call Administration and Connection, Voice Application (including announcement), Interconnection to PSTN and its control, and Back office are the main functions that support a call. In real implementation, this is done using either centralized or distributed methods, or the combination, by different vendors. They may also be functionally separated but physically collocated. To add more confusion, both CMS and MGC are called Softswitch, depends who we talk to. At very high-level, one could think they are the same: performing call administration and connection establishment (not physical switch, but signaling for terminal-to-terminal connection, including the procedure agreements), except that MGC is specifically for interacting with PSTN. Namely, without PSTN, one only need CMS, or vice versa, or just a single piece.
Cellular has already captured 50% of the value in a decade Cellular has blurred the traditional Residential – Business segmentation The residential wireline business is under significant pressure
CMS: typically performs call administration and connection functions. It may use SIP to do that in pure IP environment. It is also the place that end-to-end QoS insurance would be performed, including QoS mapping between different segments of networks. It would interact with CMTS and also router in the IP cloud. In most cases, call feature will be supported here too, but some times they are in independent, so-called Application Server (not in the picture). MG: This is the place that IP network and PSTN network interact and conversion is performed, including negotiation of the use of codec, echo cancellation,etc MGC: The control function for MG. Sometimes it is part of the MG, most cases it is stand alone and control multiple MG, therefore realizing a distributed architecture. It talks to MG using H.248, H.323, or others. Packet Cable uses TGCP SG: this is the gateway that talk to SS7 network and perform signaling conversion between SS7 and IP network. In Europe, Sigtran is used. Packet Cable uses ISTP MS: usually include Announcement Server and controller. RKS is the Record Keeping Server. All these are function blocks. Generally speaking, IP connection (DHCP, DNS, etc), Call Administration and Connection, Voice Application (including announcement), Interconnection to PSTN and its control, and Back office are the main functions that support a call. In real implementation, this is done using either centralized or distributed methods, or the combination, by different vendors. They may also be functionally separated but physically collocated. To add more confusion, both CMS and MGC are called Softswitch, depends who we talk to. At very high-level, one could think they are the same: performing call administration and connection establishment (not physical switch, but signaling for terminal-to-terminal connection, including the procedure agreements), except that MGC is specifically for interacting with PSTN. Namely, without PSTN, one only need CMS, or vice versa, or just a single piece.
Chicagoland 1 master and 1 backup headend 1 off-air receive site (Sears Tower) 8 primary hubs 2 distribution hubs 1 newly acquired headend (will become primary hub)
Most of US MSO complete its network upgrade Pressure from Wall street together with non-incentive to further upgrade network make it unlikely for cable industry to embrace any new “last-mile” technology (e.g., FTTH, etc) The next opportunity for network and optical technology is in the inter-networking, especially the one that can support multiple services and is also backward compatible.