2010 farnborough presentation

CURRENT MARKET OUTLOOK

Randy Tinseth
Vice President, Marketing
Boeing Commercial Airplanes
July 2010
BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company. The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions and provided for general information purposes only.
Copyright © 2010 Boeing. All rights reserved. These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance. Actual results may vary
depending on certain events or conditions. This document should not be used or relied upon for any purpose other than
that intended by Boeing.

Agenda

 Current Market
Outlook (CMO)

 Market trends
and realities

 20-year forecast

COPYRIGHT © 2010 THE BOEING COMPANY

Long-term forecast reflects today’s market
realities
Boeing has publicly issued its Current Market Outlook for more than 40
years. During that time, the Outlook has reflected both sizeable upturns
and downturns. Our industry has faced significant market challenges,
including the Asian Financial Crisis, SARS, terrorist acts, three major
world recessions, two Gulf wars….all clearly with their own dynamics and
their own impact on global air travel. What we have learned is that our
industry, which is based on the need to transport passengers and freight
via our global aviation system, is extremely resilient.

Based on that perspective, as we always do, we have developed the
forecast in a manner that considers today’s market environment but, just
as importantly, takes a long-term view of the market and the fundamentals
that drive commercial aviation. These drivers include economic growth,
world trade, market liberalization, new aircraft capabilities, etc.

So, while acknowledging our near-term challenges, let’s take a longer-
view look. Over the next 20-years, the basic factors underlying new
airplane demand are strong.

Boeing Current Market Outlook

 Published since
1964
 All jets 30 seats
and above
 No turbo props
 No business jets
 Scheduled and
nonscheduled
flying
 Freighters


Entirely web-based CMO
http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/
 Real-time

 Interactive

 Downloadable

 Popular (last
12 months)

 Visits:
710,122

 Downloads:
259,971


Boeing product forecast in-line with the
realities of the market
100% Large Large 3%
5%

Twin-aisle
Twin-aisle 21%
21%

75%

Size category
Large
Twin-aisle 50% Single-aisle
Single-aisle
Single-aisle 55%
62%
Regional jet

25%

Regional
Jet Regional
19% Jet
14%
0%
Boeing forecast Airplane demand
2000 – 2019 2000 – Present*
22,315 units 17,796 units

*Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog

Different view of the market has led to
different strategies
100% Large 2% Large
4% A380
9%

Twin-aisle
23% Twin-aisle
25%

75% Twin-aisle
35%

Size category
A380
Large 50%
Twin-aisle
Single-aisle
Single-aisle 75% Single-aisle
71%

Single-aisle
55%
25%

0%
Airplane demand Boeing forecast Airbus forecast
2000 – Present* 2000 – 2019 2000 – 2019
14,698 units 17,318 units 14,661 units

* Deliveries 2000 thru May 14, 2010 plus backlog (passenger jets only, excluding RJs)

Single-aisle* demand exceeding expectations
10-year forecast, 2000 - 2009

7,000
Growth driven by:
6,000

5,000
 Low Cost
Carriers
4,000

 Emerging
3,000
markets
2,000

 Replacement
1,000
demand
0
Boeing Airbus Airplane
forecast forecast** deliveries
5,228 4,726 6,084

*Single-aisle defined as all single-aisle aircraft >90 seats
** Airbus forecast estimated by Boeing from GMF


Air travel becoming more diverse geographically
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)
14,000

12,000 Other
Middle East
10,000
China

8,000
Asia
(excl. China)
6,000

Europe
4,000

45%
2,000
58% North
72% America
0
1990 2009 2029


Emerging business models are growing and
gaining market share
Air traffic, RPKs (billions)
14,000

12,000
Emerging
38% business
10,000 models

8,000

6,000

Network
4,000 25% 62%
& other

2,000 14%
75%
86%
0
1990 2009 2029

*Emerging business models include LCCs, 6th Freedom Gulf carriers and Chinese carriers


Passengers wanting– and getting– more
frequencies and nonstop service
World
Index 2000=1.00
1.5

1.4 Nonstop
Markets
Air Travel
1.3 Growth
Frequency
Growth
1.2

1.1

1.0
Average
Airplane Size
0.9

0.8
00

01

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

09
20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20
All routes
August OAG

Long-range twins dominating as airlines meet
the demands of their customers
2000-2009 Year-end 2009
Deliveries Backlog
8:1 7:1
2,200 2,200
2,000 2,000
1,800 1,800
1,600 1,600
1,400 1,400
1,200 1,200
1000 1,000
800 800
600 600
400 400
200 200
0 0
Twin-aisles Large Twin-aisles Large

All jets


Volatile fuel prices impacting the industry
Spot $/Barrel (Brent Crude Oil / Rotterdam Jet Fuel)
180
Average
annual  Ended economic
160
prices viability of small
2000 $29
regional jets
2001 $24
140 2002 $25  Forced airlines to
2003 $29
120 2004 $38  Accelerate fleet
2005 $55 renewal
100 2006 $65
Jet Fuel
2007 $72  Improve non-fuel
80 2008 $97 cost management
2009 $62

60  Streamline fleet
Crude Oil operations
40
 Encouraging
20 development of
alternative fuel
0 sources
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Historical data source: EIA


Market trends and realities summary
 Single-aisle airplane demand stronger and
more resilient than expected
 Emerging markets and business models
creating a more diverse and balanced
marketplace
 Passengers getting what they want-- more
frequencies and nonstop service-- spurring
strong demand for long-range twins
 Rising and volatile fuel prices will continue
to change our industry


Market forecast drivers and considerations
Traffic forecast Network development
Annual growth, 2009 - 2028
WORLD 4.9
Northeast Asia 4.3
Europe 4.1
North America 3.2
Oceania 5.1
Central America 5.6
South America 7.0
Middle East 6.6
CIS 5.1
Southeast Asia 6.6

Africa 5.8
Southwest Asia 7.5
China 7.8

0 2 4 6 8
Percentage

Economic growth Market liberalization Airplane capabilities

Fuel price Infrastructure

$70-90/barrel Airline strategies &
Environment High speed rail business models


World air travel has grown 5% per year
since 1977
6.0

5.0
RPKs (trillions)

4.0
nd
Tre
3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010F
RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers
Sources: ICAO Scheduled Traffic


20-year forecast:
strong long-term growth
2009 to 2029
World
economy 3.2%
(GDP)

Airplane
fleet 3.3%

Number
of airline 4.2%
passengers
4.9%
Airline
traffic 5.3%
(RPK)
5.4%
Cargo
traffic 5.9%
(RTK)

20-year traffic growth rates are higher than last year's forecast because they are calculated off a lower base year

Air travel growth has been met by increased
frequencies and nonstops
World
Index 1988=1.00
3.0

Air Travel
2.5
Growth

Frequency
2.0 Growth
Nonstop
Markets

1.5

1.0
Average
Airplane Size

0.5
95

97

99

01

03
89

91

93

05

07

09
19

19

19

20

20
19

19

19

20

20

20
All routes
August OAG

Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes
valued at $3.6 trillion
Airplane deliveries: 30,900 Market value: $3.6T
2010 - 2029 2010 - 2029

25,000 1,800

Market value, $ billions
20,000 1,600
Airplane units

15,000 1,200

10,000 800

5,000 400

0 0
1,920 21,160 7,100 720 $60B $1,680B $1,630B $220B
regional jets single-aisle twin-aisle large regional jets single-aisle twin-aisle large
6% 69% 23% 2% 2% 47% 45% 6%


Older, less efficient airplanes will be replaced
with more efficient, newer generation airplanes
Units

40,000
36,300

30,000
17,410
Growth
56%

20,000 30,900
18,890
13,490
Replacement
10,000 44%

5,400
Retained fleet
0
2009 2029


World fleet will nearly double by 2029

2029
2019 3%
2009 3% 10% 6%
23%
4% 20%
16%
19%
18,890 27,060 36,300
airplanes airplanes airplanes

61% 67% 68%

Large Twin-aisle Single-aisle Regional jet


Emerging markets are driving the
economic growth
Annual GDP growth
2010 – 2029
China 7.3
South
Asia 6.1
Asia 4.6
Pacific
Africa 4.4
Southeast
Asia 4.3
Middle
East 4.0
Latin
America 4.0

CIS 3.3

World 3.2
Oceania 2.7
North
America 2.7

Europe 1.9
Source:
Northeast 1.4 Global Insight
Asia


Air travel growth varies by market
Added traffic Annual
2009 traffic 2010-2029 growth%
Asia Pacific* 7.1%
Within North America 2.8%
Within Europe 4.1%
Within China 7.9%
Europe – Asia Pacific 5.6%
North Atlantic 4.3%
Middle East – Asia Pacific 7.5% World
Average
Transpacific 4.8% Growth:
Within Latin America 7.1% 5.3%
North America – Latin America 5.3%
Europe – Latin America 4.6%
Africa – Europe 4.6%
Within CIS 4.8%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
*includes within China RPKs, billions


Market for new airplanes set to become
considerably more geographically balanced
New airplane deliveries by region Market value by region
2010–2029 2010–2029

Region Airplanes 3% 2% Region $B 3% 2%
7% 6%
Asia Pacific 10,320 Asia Pacific 1,320
8% 11%
North America 7,200 34% North America 700 37%
Europe 7,190 Europe 800
Middle East 2,340 30,900 Middle East 390 $3.6T
Latin America 2,180 Latin America 210
C.I.S. 960 23% C.I.S. 90 22%
Africa 710 Africa 80
23% 19%
World Total 30,900 World Total $3,590B


Integrated top-down/bottom-up freighter fleet
forecast methodology

World Air Cargo Forecast Total cargo lift
Projected traffic Demand

minus

Current Market Outlook Lower-hold lift
Passenger and combi airplane forecast Supply

equals

Freighter airplane Needed freighter lift
requirement Supply


Future freighter deliveries will be led by
demand for large widebodies
New freighter deliveries: 740 Market value: $180 billion
2010–2029 2010–2029

600 150
70% 77%
500 125

Market value
Airplane units

400 100
300 75
29%
200 50 23%
100 25
1% <1%
0 0
520 210 10 $140B $40B $1B
Large Medium Standard Large Medium Standard
More than 40 to 80 Less than More than 40 to 80 Less than
80 tonnes tonnes 45 tonnes 80 tonnes tonnes 45 tonnes


Future freight
740 new and 1,750 converted
Market value: $180 billion

520
Size category
Large
More than 80 tonnes 1,070
Medium 250
40 to 80 tonnes
Standard
Less than 45 tonnes
210
430 10
2009 2029
Freighters Freighters 2010 to 2029
1,750 2,980 freighters
2,490


European airlines business model shifts

2019
2009
ASKs 2000 14%
17%

22%

20%
15% 48%
3%
54%
59%
16%
14%
18%

LCC Charter/IT Broad Network Other Networks
Source: Boeing CMOs

Europe air traffic growth varies by market
Added traffic Annual
2009 traffic 2010 - 2029 growth %
Within
Europe 4.1%
To and from
North America 4.3%
To and from
Middle East 6.0%
To and from
Africa 4.6%
To and from
Southeast Asia 5.5%
Europe Average
To and from
China 6.0% Growth: 4.4%
To and from
South America 5.0% Region’s Average
To and from GDP Growth: 1.9%
South Asia 7.1%
To and from
Central America 4.1%
To and from
Northeast Asia 3.7%
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
RPKs, billions


European airlines will need 7,190 new
airplanes
Market value: $800 billion

Share of fleet Delivery units
2% 4%
19%
Size category
Large
Twin-aisle
Single-aisle
Regional jet

75%
2009 2029 2010 to 2029
Airplanes Airplanes New airplanes
4,300 7,460 7,190


A large demand for replacing older, less-
efficient aircraft
Units

8,000 7,460

6,000 3,160
Growth
44%

4,300
4,000 7,190

4,030
Replacement
56%
2,000

270
0 Retained fleet
2009 2029


European airlines’ environmental strategy
means more new airplanes
Share of fleet
100% 96%
New airplanes
75% Better for:
• Environment
• Passengers
50% • Airlines

25% 4%
Remaining
0% airplanes
2029
Airplane fleet
7,460


Market-driving products and services
Full market coverage from 100-500 seats

Environmentally progressive

Operational commonality

Long-range, fast, reliable

Low operating cost

Standardization

Passenger
experience

Lifecycle
solutions


Substantial, balanced backlog validates
Boeing’s product strategy
Backlog $ Model
747
$ = Billions Large
8% 737
300 279 777 Single-
Aisle
255 250 250
32%

250
Twin-
Aisle
60% 767
200 174 787

150 Region
North
Leasing America
100 & Gov't L.
America
& Africa
ME,
50 Central
& Asia
S. Asia Pacific
Russia
0 Europe
China,
East &
SE Asia
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q 2010


Unmet demand provides tremendous
opportunity for the future

747 747
RJ RJ
2% 2%
Large Large
777 6% 777 5%

Forecast Single- 737 Unsold Single- 737
Twin- Twin-
aisle aisle aisle
$3.6T 47% aisle $2.6T 49%
787 45% 787 44%

767 767
(in 2009 $)

Things to remember
 Boeing CMO: long-term forecast reflecting realities of today’s market
 Shapes our product strategy
 Supports our long-range business plan
 Provides valuable data in our airline planning process
 Aviation industry resilient; long-term market outlook is strong
 Passenger air travel will grow at 5.3%, cargo at 5.9%
 Airlines will need 30,900 new airplanes valued at $3.6 trillion,
European airlines will need 7,190 airplanes valued at $800 billion
 Boeing’s market-driving products and services are ideally matched to
the market today… and in the future


There are 52 weeks in a year
Airshow “announcements” Actual year-end net orders
1,261 to 477 4,234 to 4,263
450 1,600
Airbus Airbus
Boeing Boeing
400 1,400

350
1,200

300
1,000
250
800
200
600
150

400
100

50 200

0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Paris Farnborough Paris Farnborough Paris

Net orders at the end of the year are what count


For more information, please visit our CMO website:
http://www.boeing.com/cmo

You can also visit my blog, Randy’s Journal:
http://boeingblogs.com/randy/

BOEING is a trademark of Boeing Management Company.
Copyright © 2009 Boeing. All rights reserved.

2010 farnborough presentation

Recommandé

Recommandé

Contenu connexe

Similaire à 2010 farnborough presentation

Similaire à 2010 farnborough presentation (20)

Dernier

Dernier (20)

2010 farnborough presentation